Patterico's Pontifications

8/3/2015

Looking At The New NBC News/Wall Street Journal GOP Poll

Filed under: General — Dana @ 7:21 am



[guest post by Dana]

Here are the results of the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of the Republican candidates as of July 30:

Trump is the first choice of 19 percent of GOP primary voters, while 15 percent back Walker and 14 percent back Bush. Ten percent support retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

All other Republican candidates earn single digit backing. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is favored by nine percent of primary voters; former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are tied with six percent support; Florida Sen. Marco Rubio clocks in at five percent; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are tied with three percent apiece. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum each have one percent support, and four candidates – former HP head Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore – register less than one percent support.

What that looks like:

Donald Trump – 19%
Scott Walker – 15%
Jeb Bush – 14%
Ben Carson – 10%
Ted Cruz – 9%
Mike Huckabee – 6%
Rand Paul – 6%
Marco Rubio – 5%
Chris Christie – 3%
Rick Perry – 3%
John Kasich – 3%
Bobby Jindal – 1%
Rick Santorum – 1%
Carly Fiorina – *
Lindsey Graham – *
George Pataki – *
Jim Gilmore – *

Remember that the top 10 candidates are calculated by an average of the last five major national polls and the winners will be eligible to participate in the FOX News debate. Which polls will be used are still not known. However, the Washington Post incorporated the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll numbers and concludes that these candidates will be eligible for the Fox debate:

Trump – 19.8 percent
Walker – 13.2 percent
Bush – 13 percent
Paul – 6.4 percent
Carson – 6.4 percent
Rubio – 6.2 percent
Huckabee – 5.8 percent
Cruz – 5.8 percent
Christie – 3.2 percent
Kasich – 3.2 percent

Not making the cut: Perry – 2.6 percent, Santorum – 1.4 percent, Jindal – 1.4 percent, Fiorina – 0.6 percent,Pataki – 0.6 percent, Graham- 0.4 percent, and Gilmore – 0 percent.

–Dana

49 Responses to “Looking At The New NBC News/Wall Street Journal GOP Poll”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (86e864) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:22 am

  2. What have we got now, 17 candidates? What ever possessed Jim Gilmore and Lindsey Graham and George Pataki and Rick Santorum to think that they are really viable candidates? John Kasich might e a good governor, but he has all the charisma of a brown paper bag, a wet brown paper bag. I liked Rick Perry in 2012, but he had his chance, and he blew it. Mike Huckabee? You’ve got to be kidding me!

    The Dana who'd like to thin the herd (f6a568) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:32 am

  3. I don’t trust their polling, their samples, their reporting. I don’t trust the MFM

    JD (34f761) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:35 am

  4. i guess i have two takeaways

    the 7% the not-a-chance losers have could put either Mr. Governor Walker or the hyper-entitled harvardtrash bushfilth dude ahead of Mr. Donald

    also it’s got to be just amazingly humbling for governor smartglasses, with a national campaign already under his belt, to be out-polled by a douche like john kasich… i didn’t see that coming

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:37 am

  5. rasmussen seems the outlier:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

    but you’re right to be concerned,

    narciso (ee1f88) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:39 am

  6. also – looking at the NBC numbers – it’s interesting pitiful that fully 35% of the vote goes to a candidate what’s received media exposure through a contractual relationship with some part of the MFM (trump, carson, huckabee)

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:41 am

  7. kasich got 3% ? thats a shocker to me. Chrissie I understand, he has media exposure.

    i think it is pretty terrible that these 2 mushers got 6% and could leave some different ideas candidates out.

    seeRpea (9f5b2d) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:49 am

  8. ignoring the elephant in the room, will not prevent getting stomped

    http://www.steynonline.com/7079/insanity-defense

    narciso (ee1f88) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:49 am

  9. It’s just MSNBC? How can they even afford to pay the girl to take a phone survey? The miserable baby killing State worshiping sons o bitches should be recused, no scratch that, should be drop kicked (forty + yards at a minimum – so the cleat has to be surgically removed from their ass).

    papertiger (c2d6da) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:52 am

  10. Jeb Bush, your mother was correct. America has experienced enough of the Bush family to last a lifetime, particularly when it reflects your mealy-mouthed, politically-correct, squish-squish form of Republicanism or wobbly conservatism. Regrettably, hubris and ego steer him (and a few other candidates—hey, Christie, hey, Graham, etc!) away from that reality.

    Mark (f32097) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:54 am

  11. It’s just MSNBC? How can they even afford to pay the girl to take a phone survey?

    The miserable baby killing state worshiping sons o beaches should be recused, no scratch that, should be drop kicked (forty + yards at a minimum – so the cleat has to be surgically removed from their bunghole) from anything to do with the GOP.

    papertiger (c2d6da) — 8/3/2015 @ 7:55 am

  12. I wonder if the debates are going to be meaningless no one wants to see 10 people answer the same inane question

    We should start a pool on the first questions asked?

    My guess its going to be the dream act

    EPWJ (8be213) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:17 am

  13. National polls, national media and a national political party shouldn’t determine how each state’s voters weigh and determine the state party’s political nominee. If the national party wants to help the state parties organize and manage the process then fine. If the national media wants to broadcast what’s happening in Ohio, IA, NH, FL, SC or wherever then fine, but the state party and media should be calling the shots. All we have now is x-number of episodes of a made-for-TV battle between candidates jousting for the affections of the national press and opinion makers. As the RNC will learn nationalizing the primary nominating process favors the big government progressives and in particular the charismatic populists. Always has, always will.

    crazy (cde091) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:19 am

  14. re #12: i’m pretty sure the RNC wants exactly that, diminish States in the process.

    seeRpea (9f5b2d) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:27 am

  15. Feel for Fiorina, very talented but she does need to go WIN SOMETHING LOCAL for chriss sake. Same for Ben Carson. Trump, I will ignore in spite of message which I basically agree with.

    Rodney King's Spirit (9225a4) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:30 am

  16. 10 candidates is too many for a TV debate. The top 5 would be about right. I’ll watch but I won’t be expecting much beyond a pecking party with Trump as the spotted hen. The others all have a common interest in knocking Trump down. If they try and fail, he’ll likely cakewalk to the nomination. If they succeed Trump will go 3rd party. And win.

    ropelight (4c7a33) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:38 am

  17. Many of these candidates are only in it as VP candidates.

    AZ Bob (34bb80) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:53 am

  18. Mike Huckabee? You’ve got to be kidding me!

    Exactly ! The early debate may be the most interesting. It will be very early here, I think.

    Mike K (90dfdc) — 8/3/2015 @ 9:43 am

  19. clinton’s in “terlet”
    Bernie Sanders a buffoon
    Dems in a sad state

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 8/3/2015 @ 9:45 am

  20. break out that bass guitar, Huckleberry!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 8/3/2015 @ 9:46 am

  21. # 3 for teh win!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 8/3/2015 @ 9:48 am

  22. That’s a shame. Fiorina is an intelligent, civil version of Donald Trump. She can cut like a knife–with a smile. She’d make a heck of a VP candidate. She’s got the bite without the blowhard bluster of The Donald.

    Comanche Voter (1d5c8b) — 8/3/2015 @ 9:54 am

  23. If my understanding is correct (and it may be very wrong) a national Presidential candidacy allows you to gather funds nation-wide, which you can then later use in your re-election campaign.

    Walker, Cruz, Fiorina … the others I don’t much care. What I would like is many one-on-one
    debates, say thirty minutes each (Q1:5a-5b-2a-2b Q2:4b-4a-1b-1a Q3:2a-2b-1a-1b), in a McMahon system of pairing (http://senseis.xmp.net/?McMahonPairing.) I’m not going to hold my breath.

    htom (4ca1fa) — 8/3/2015 @ 10:05 am

  24. Yeah, the early debate will be on at 2 PM California time.

    Too bad. I may be at work.

    Mike K (90dfdc) — 8/3/2015 @ 10:10 am

  25. don’t cry for miss fiorina

    the truth is she’s self-promoting

    prospects she’s enhancing

    a book deal romancing

    but her actual record’s

    of an underachiever

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 8/3/2015 @ 10:11 am

  26. (note such ono-on-one debates could be held in (say) eight places simultaneously, the debates shown that evening, sixteen candidates, eight debates, four hours of TV a day, scored, new debate next day, … repeat until winner (maybe a week) while only taking a half-hour a day from each candidate.)

    htom (4ca1fa) — 8/3/2015 @ 10:12 am

  27. Quite right, htom. You’s think no one in the MFM had ever heard of the Olympics. Just hold all these debates like the Olympic trials and events and let the voters tune in. Let the political junkies feast. Put yer DVRs to the test.

    felipe (56556d) — 8/3/2015 @ 10:43 am

  28. “Lindsey Graham – *”

    heh

    Dustin (2a8be7) — 8/3/2015 @ 10:52 am

  29. ‘dr. evil’s advice was not helpful to perry,

    narciso (ee1f88) — 8/3/2015 @ 11:02 am

  30. If joe biden is the answer what is the question?

    koch (762eaa) — 8/3/2015 @ 12:59 pm

  31. Old Joe? Don’t the Dems have any potential candidates who aren’t already on Social Security?

    ropelight (4c7a33) — 8/3/2015 @ 1:02 pm

  32. Oppose donald trump he is anti immigration we koch’s know what is best for you.

    koch (762eaa) — 8/3/2015 @ 1:20 pm

  33. 1\2 this country loves it
    1\4 are more interested in the kardashians
    1\4 are more interested in joining isis
    screw the polls
    screw the debaters -they all are in on it.

    mg (31009b) — 8/3/2015 @ 1:24 pm

  34. I don’t believe any of these Polls that the Media keeps producing. In reality they are simply trying to pump up the weakest opposition to Hillary. Why else would Jeb Bush keep coming out so high in every poll, when the conservative base of the party despises him?

    Mike Giles (f0cdc4) — 8/3/2015 @ 1:25 pm

  35. . Mike Huckabee? You’ve got to be kidding me!

    I agree. Huckster is a fat, ignorant, worthless excuse for a politician.

    Gil (c39449) — 8/3/2015 @ 2:42 pm

  36. there’s a huge mismatch between a country what would have Huckabee as a president and a country I would want to live in

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 8/3/2015 @ 2:50 pm

  37. Gil is a size-ist Christophobe.

    JD (3b5483) — 8/3/2015 @ 3:01 pm

  38. 35.there’s a huge mismatch between a country what would have Huckabee as a president and a country I would want to live in

    But you’re just phukin’ fine with the idiot who is president now and the possibility of the Hillary! hag?

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie (f4eb27) — 8/3/2015 @ 3:05 pm

  39. ok good point

    but even so

    President Huck is a lot to wrap your head around

    i mean my god think about the implications of that

    it’s very disturbing

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 8/3/2015 @ 3:08 pm

  40. Well,, happyfeet I think he’s just a dim bulb. I don’t think he’s a bad or evil man. No where near the pig we have now or the she banshee Hillary! would be.

    Just look at what the idiot did today. The natural gas and oil businesses in one of the few industries that actually are making money in America today he backhands with CO2 regulations. He does this to hurt America because a five year old knows other nations aren’t going to abide by the rules we are setting for ourselves therefore no progress can be made. No one but someone full of hate for America would deliberately attack energy jobs and industry over a “theory” that goes around in circles. It’s either insanity or just plain evil. I vote evil.

    Rev. Barack Hussein Hoagie (f4eb27) — 8/3/2015 @ 3:22 pm

  41. drudge threw this up this afternoon Mr. Hoagie

    happyfeet (a037ad) — 8/3/2015 @ 3:40 pm

  42. 3. Concur, Boosh’s numbers completely fabulist.

    DNF (208255) — 8/4/2015 @ 4:02 am

  43. I wonder if the debates are going to be meaningless no one wants to see 10 people answer the same inane question

    We should start a pool on the first questions asked?

    My guess its going to be the dream act

    EPWJ (8be213) — 8/3/2015 @ 8:17 am

    Something about how much CO2 volcanoes emit.

    carlitos (c24ed5) — 8/4/2015 @ 6:26 am

  44. Is it really sad that I’m imagining Andrew Sullivan looking through Carly Fiorina’s garbage for clues about her uterus?

    carlitos (c24ed5) — 8/4/2015 @ 6:31 am

  45. Different dynamic, the huntres both repelled Sullivan re his crush on zaphod, yet he was also perversely attracted

    narciso (ee1f88) — 8/4/2015 @ 6:44 am

  46. Englisch, bitte?

    carlitos (c24ed5) — 8/4/2015 @ 6:45 am

  47. One must be this tall to ride the roller coaster.

    felipe (56556d) — 8/4/2015 @ 7:01 am

  48. I repent of my previous comment; I don’t know what came over me.

    felipe (56556d) — 8/4/2015 @ 7:02 am

  49. who didn’t get the gist of my message

    narciso (ee1f88) — 8/4/2015 @ 7:04 am


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