Politico’s Absurd Piece Claiming GOP Voters Are Dying Off
This article by Daniel J. McCraw at Politico is a work of pure genius. Why, I can’t spot a single fallacy in it! It is titled: The GOP Is Dying Off. Literally (Google cache link):
There’s been much written about how millennials are becoming a reliable voting bloc for Democrats, but there’s been much less attention paid to one of the biggest get-out-the-vote challenges for the Republican Party heading into the next presidential election: Hundreds of thousands of their traditional core supporters won’t be able to turn out to vote at all.
The party’s core is dying off by the day.
Since the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. To make matters worse, the GOP is attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to make inroads with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth, the GOP’s slow demographic slide will continue election to election. Actuarial tables make that part clear, but just how much of a problem for the GOP is this?
Our rocket political scientist then runs the numbers. Why, if you take all of the people who voted for Mitt Romney, and then subtract out how many are already dead or will die, you can easily see that the GOP numbers are dwindling! No fallacies there!
What about the effect of people moving from one age bracket into another? McGraw has you covered! You see, there are a lot of teenagers who are going to become voters when they turn 18. So when you add all those new Democrats to the voting rolls, and subtract all the dead old Republican voters, the result is a Giant New Bonanza of Democrat voters!
I’m going to ask the question again, McGraw:
What about the effect of people moving from one age bracket into another? Hint: teenagers are not the only group who are moving into different age brackets.
Nowhere in McGraw’s analysis is there any mention of the fact that all people in the nation are becoming older. Indeed, it’s kind of a thing humans tend to do. As They Might Be Giants once pointed out, you’re older than you’ve ever been — and now you’re even older. (And now you’re older still.)
And this keeps happening.
Now, if McGraw has some evidence that, over time, fewer older people are voting Republican, he might have a point. But that is clearly not the case. American Thinker has the numbers, and the percentage of older voters voting Republican has steadily increased in the past two decades, from 39% in 1992 to 56% in 2012. Meanwhile, as we are constantly reminded by people justifiably concerned with the demographics of Social Security, the population in general is aging.
This fallacy is similar to the fallacy of those pushing income inequality as a problem, while ignoring the fact that people tend to move into higher income brackets as they age — acquiring both greater savings, and greater skills commanding a higher salary. Even if everyone were paid the same salary at the same age, saved at the same rate, and received raises at the same rate, there would be income and wealth disparities owing to this dynamic process.
Instead, McGraw slices off GOP voters at the older end where they are dying, adds more Democrats at the younger end where they are attaining adulthood — and blithely ignores the fact that, every day, populations of young people are turning into GOP voters as they acquire life experience and a stake in society. As you age, you learn that ideals are not what matter, results are. And you tend to vote GOP more as a result (not because the GOP gets results, but because they do a better job of giving lip service to the values of limited government and freedom).
McGraw ignores all this, and Politico says: hey, great analysis! Let’s publish that!
Par for the course.
McGraw says “the GOP is attracting fewer first-time voters” but he provides no evidence, or even an explanation of what that means. If he means the GOP has fewer first-time voters relative to Democrats in recent years, that is entirely unsurprising, given that Democrats saw a huge explosion of first-time black voters in 2000, signing up to vote for Obama.
Patterico (9c670f) — 5/18/2015 @ 7:43 amThe party’s core is dying off by the day.
would it were
happyfeet (a037ad) — 5/18/2015 @ 7:49 amSounds like it was writ by that idiot Perry. Dumbasses of a feather frolic in stupidity together.
Hoagie (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 7:53 amMcGraw is partially correct. It has been established that many Democrat voters are deceased. Some are just brain dead, others are totally dead. Once you are totally dead you become a significant voting block for Democrats in their urban utopias. A name, an address, an absentee ballot, they all work smoothly together to ensure administrative continuity.
bobathome (f50725) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:11 amBuckley joked how his grandfather, a texas wildcatter was still on the rolls, 20 years on, in the Democrat runoff in ’48.
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:15 amyes yes this makes sense
serious, inroads, y’all
chop chop
happyfeet (a037ad) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:16 amwhereas their candidates are mostly to the short end of methuselah, with the Solon at the top end, with O’Malley being the youngster around 50
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:37 amGreetings:
“Every Republican not busy being born is busy dying.” I think Bob Dylan sang that.
11B40 (0f96be) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:38 amremember this jackalope:
http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2015/05/dying-republicans
I’m surprised he’s not an apparatchik in the administration by now,
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:41 amhttps://patterico.com/2012/12/29/i-stand-with-popehat-on-the-erik-loomis-story/comment-page-1/
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:42 amWhere did politico find time for such insightful analysis wen they are being bombarded with leaks from Dem operatives, counting on politico to spin stories for them?
JD (a0c457) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:43 amDid he factor in the idea that conservatives generally have more children?
Mark Twain proves again to be correct,
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:45 amto be uninformed or misinformed,
that is generally question.
To be lied to with statistics,
or by other means,
which is it today?
beats me, JD,
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:45 amI imagine they assume no one ever switches parties. In fact almost every Republican I know (including me) was a Democrat before. Interestingly, I personally know of no current Democrat who switched from Republican. Seems the brainwashing was just too strong to overcome they were forced to remain a LIV.
So if the dems could just control pre-school or pre-K as they love to say, they can begin the brainwashing as soon as the little abortion survivors are squirted out. That is part of their 2016 platform, no?
Hoagie (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:47 amSpeaking of our much vaunted press, has any media genius tracked down Sen. Ted Cruz yet to ask how he feels about the Twin Peaks Texas biker gun battle so they can link his name in a bloody headline?
elissa (025910) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:53 amdoes Dadgum, Hillary’s research chief dontcha know, qualify as media genius:
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2015/05/disgusting-liberal-intellectuals-race-bait-over-waco-biker-gang-shootout/
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 8:56 amOlder usually means wiser, which is bad for the Democrats.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:01 amIF they have so many younger people in the party, why are all their candidates on Medicare?
Kevin M (25bbee) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:04 amNo mention of the Roe effect ?
Mike K (90dfdc) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:04 amOr, MD, Disraeli’s third kind of lie.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:05 amtheir concern is duly noted, meanwhile premiums in Oregon, ‘are going to necessarily skyrocket’
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:11 amThis just in – journ-o-list doesn’t understand statistics.
On the bright side, we got to hear TMBG, which is always good on a Monday morning.
On the down side, the time I spend with my parents makes me wonder whether we want them voting or making important decisions for the nation… Maybe someone can do a Venn diagram of where the wisdom of age, the sense of entitlement for “paying your dues,” and being generally out of touch with popular culture intersect. Probably at the bulls-eye Romney voter.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:13 am‘how’s hope and change’ working out for you,
http://news.investors.com/politics/051815-753015-obamacare-insurers-propose-big-2016-premium-hikes.htm
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:15 amI am of the opinion that we will continue to see a strong showing of Rs at the state and many local levels from voters/taxpayers who are at least marginally involved in their own communities and understand the issues that directly relate to them. But I am increasingly concerned that with LIV or one issue voters, the national media’s relentless narrative, the electoral college imbalance, and voter fraud opportunities created by increased use of technology in the voting systems, it will be very difficult going forward for Rs to take the White House. Unfortunately, President Obama has given us a taste of what a dictator who does not respect either federalism or the separation of powers can accomplish.
elissa (025910) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:16 amcarlitos, you’ll be pleased to know that Obamacare has a final solution for everyone over 72. They just haven’t got around to publicizing it. The inside word is that the details are still being fleshed out. If your parents are known to be Republicans, all your sorrows will soon be over.
bobathome (f50725) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:23 amit’s basically Logan’s run, but they doubled the numbers for carousel,
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:24 amelissa, “demolish”
bobathome (f50725) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:26 amaccomplish… ftfyof course, if you believed it was a video, then put your dunce cap on:
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/05/18/fox-newly-released-benghazi-documents-show-obama-admin-lied-about-attack/
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:34 amAlso, it’s ridiculous for anyone to posit that all the vacuous entitled old boomers are Republican. Some of the most virulent, vocal progressives and socialists are the aged 1960’s flower children, hippies and anti-establishment anti- war protester types. (See United States Senate and House members from oh, say California as examples.) They’ll be dying off, too.
elissa (025910) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:35 amIt is hard to know things sometimes.
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:36 amI once thought the quote about lies and statistics was from Will Rogers
then I heard it linked to Twain,
now I found Twain attributed it to someone else…
well it’s not an exclusive sentiment to either coast, Disraeli or Twain,
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:40 amWell, I guess there is no one currently fighting over intellectual property rights to it,
and the truth stands no matter where it came from.
I once added a fourth, but I doubt I can really claim original credit,
MD in Philly (f9371b) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:44 amwillful deception by suppression of known facts…
I took a whole lot of advanced statistics courses, and I do market research for my job. The crap that passes for statistics in advocacy research, push-polling, political polls … it makes me embarrassed for the people who do that stuff.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:49 amYou are correct, carlito. The crap they pass of as “statistics” to lay people make even creative businessmen like me blush.
Hoagie (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:57 amit’s not about facts,it’s about furthering the narrative, as along as long as all the right parties, concur via the journolist, it’s all good.
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:58 amthey’re trying to turn “young people” into “black people”
everyone has to be part of a bloc
this is not open to discussion
happyfeet (a037ad) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:12 am“carlitos, you’ll be pleased to know that Obamacare has a final solution for everyone over 72. They just haven’t got around to publicizing it.”
I’ve got 10 years
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:43 amdat’s all I got?
10 years
my brain hurts a lot!
The only thing that’s really a trend with young folks is that the current generation doesn’t give a rat’s ass about someone’s sexual preference, in much the same way that Boomers didn’t care about race.
Boomers now vote Republican. Go figure.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:46 amIt’s interesting to read that some here want conservative voters to be disenfranchised or die. Tell me again how smart your readers are, Patterico.
DRJ (e80d46) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:47 amThe flip side of this is that Democrats rely on votes from people when they are still young and stupid.
Kevin M (25bbee) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:50 amevery blog has at least one nazgul, haloscan, wordpress, discus, can’t filter them out completely,
narciso (ee1f88) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:50 amAs of this morning, I’ve bumped my daily walk up from 1.5 miles to 2.0. you want a piece o’me, young leftwing DB whippersnapper?!?!
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:54 amIt would be more interesting, and less passive-aggressive, if you would more clearly make your accusations, name names and quote posts.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:55 amWith the disclaimer that Patterico uses this sucky comment technology rather than a forum…
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 10:56 amIt’s the same flawed methodology that states 50% of all marriages end in divorce. Math is hard.
Gazzer (c1d25a) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:00 amI hope the Democrats are thoroughly convinced by what passes for analysis at Politico.
Steve57 (fb1453) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:01 amnarciso provided a link to Richard Fernandez yesterday that had some salient thoughts. The response to ISIS has been modelled on nation-state warfare which leads to campaigns to decapitate their leadership. But this may not be appropriate simply because ISIS is essentially a collections of gangs, each fairly independent, and composed of nothing more than bandits (pirates, pillagers, whatever tickles your fancy,) who finance their activities by looting productive entities. The character our special forces took out last week was a smuggler who helped ISIS to trade oil for cash, and while he was useful to ISIS, he was not the equivalent of our Secretary of Treasury or any other officer in a nation state.
Our treatment of those we capture as “prisoners of war” is thus a mistake. There is no party on the other side of the conflict who would even want to bargain for their release. They’ll be happy to get them back if they can show the west to be weak, but these captives are competitors for the goodies, and they will probably pose a significant threat to others within ISIS when they return, as all the bandits do, and so it isn’t an obvious goal. Probably the best analog to ISIS would be the mob during prohibition, but the mob was house trained. Their leaders wanted wealth and the good life. A better analog is probably Genghis Khan and his horde. The major difference being that Khan didn’t have an ideology that had been constructed to facilitate recruitment through religious proselytizing.
They offer nothing but death. We should reciprocate.
bobathome (f50725) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:02 amI would love to participate in the reciprocity.
Hoagie (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:48 amThere is another problem for goppers every month 100,000 minority kids turn 18 voting age and almost very one of them hating republicans and 150,000 minority babies are born every month. Also since republicans are older then democrats the fact that democrats are aging also means little as they are replaced with minority democrat voters. Republican future is not!
demograhics (92e94e) — 5/18/2015 @ 1:14 pmSeek help, Perry
JD (3b5483) — 5/18/2015 @ 1:22 pmPerry pulled those numbers from a dark, smelly place.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 1:29 pmOf course he did. That’s where he head is.
Gazzer (c1d25a) — 5/18/2015 @ 1:32 pmEvery month 1,000,000 MAJORITY kids turn voting age and almost every one hate communists/democrats abd every month 100,000 minority kids are chopped to pieces in their mother’s womb and will never vote democrat/commie. Since republicans are older than democrats/commies the fact that voters are aging also means as they mature from children they too will become republicans thereby rendering what’s left of the democrat party (racists, sexists, gays, atheists, lesbians, commies, nazis, moslems, illegals and other assorted “groups” of nere-do-wells) will slither into the slime from which it came.
Remember dumbass, Republicans weren’t born “aged”, we started as dumbasses just like you! We just left you behind.
12,000,000 non-minority voters (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 1:37 pmWell, it’s nice to know that I’m a “nere do well” (sic). I guess my uncle Bob was right.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 1:50 pmI was throwin’ crap out to bust nuts, carlitos. You now that. When Perry starts with his absurd nonsense I just love to show him I can be even absurd-er. Besides, you know you’re my favorite illegal!
12,000,000 non-minority voters (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 2:01 pmGracias, papi.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 2:04 pmboehner,mitch,lindsey and juanny mac have killed more GOP voters than natural causes.
mg (31009b) — 5/18/2015 @ 2:28 pmI saw a Mother’s Day card with a picture of.a mother and her infant child who said, “When I grow up, I want to be a liberal.” Mother replied, “You are going to have to decide on one. You can’t have both.”
AZ Bob (86f20b) — 5/18/2015 @ 2:29 pmRex Stout: There are two kinds of statistics. The ones you look up and the ones you make up.
Birdbath (3be0e2) — 5/18/2015 @ 3:28 pmI’m with elissa on this one (#29). Boomers are the vanguard of the Democratic Party (as well as most cultural institutions) and have been since the 1970s. Their passing will devastate the Dems.
ThOR (a52560) — 5/18/2015 @ 3:28 pmBirdbath, Rex Stout is right. Unfortunately when the left is involved in public discourse as in academia, the media, law, war, politics and specially economics there is only one kind of statistic. Guess which one.
Hoagie (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 3:48 pmUnfortunately the term “boomers” has become synonymous with mentally and physically masturbating left wing commie, anti Christian anti American maggots. Alas, I was born in ’51 which makes me of boomer age too. So are most of my friends. Yet we’ve matured way beyond the idea that we are the most important snowflakes in the universe. We’re beyond Desiderata, Hair, We Are The World and Woodstock. Yet we are Boomers. Perhaps what Boomers were supposed to be to begin with.
Hoagie (f4eb27) — 5/18/2015 @ 3:55 pmNothin from nothin but the lump, Philip Bump, was on FN Special Report panel this afternoon. Unimpressed.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:06 pmThe only Boomers I’m aware of who are still Democrats are either government workers or brain-damaged. And I live in California.
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:09 pmFunny stuff… Philip Bump talks a mile-a-minute… the white Tavis Smiley?
Colonel Haiku (2601c0) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:10 pmHave you been hearing the “Millennial are racist” meme coming from lefty sources? I sure have. White guilt has been the mother’s milk of liberalism for a long time. And the narcissism meme too? I think the old bulls on the left are getting worried. That’s what White privilege is all about and now we’re going to have some company. Good news!
ThOR (a52560) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:20 pmOff Topic:
Hiltzik is at it again. He’s attacking GOP governors for refusing ObamaCare. (LAT, 5/18/15)
ropelight (bd8712) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:21 pmSpeaking of the inexorable passage of time, can you believe the Mt. St. Helen’s eruption was 35 years ago? 35 friggen years ago???
Here is an interesting article about it and the area’s rebirth.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/35-years-after-mt-st-helens-eruption-nature-returns/
elissa (025910) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:25 pmWhen I hear the word the first thing I think of are ballistic missile submarines.
Steve57 (fb1453) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:36 pmthanks elissa
mg (31009b) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:37 pmThe earth is healthy
I personally have done a ton of research on millennials, and to claim that they are racist is absurd.
carlitos (c24ed5) — 5/18/2015 @ 4:43 pmthe college ones are very, very racist
it’s best if they simply don’t speak – for themselves and for anyone what might could get triggered
and also they’re very very apt to do the rape on people if you don’t make them do the affirmative consent
and they don’t buy houses
happyfeet (831175) — 5/18/2015 @ 5:12 pm#navemillennialslandedyet
happyfeet (831175) — 5/18/2015 @ 5:13 pmook
#have i mean
happyfeet (831175) — 5/18/2015 @ 5:13 pmIf ANY group is preparing to die off right now it’s the @#$%#$%^#$^# fucking BOOMERS, who almost uniformly vote the straight libtard ticket…
I cite to you the key difference between a Boomer and a GenXer is usually the answer to a simple question:
What lesson did you learn from Watergate…?
Boomers say: “You can’t trust Republicans“.
GenXers say: “You can’t trust politicians“.
The former leads to the societal cancer called PostModern Liberalism and “Democratic” Fascist thuggery.
The latter leads to Small-L libertarianism or Small Government Conservativism.
It’s not a guaranteed, one-to-one result, but it’s the way to bet.
So the ones dying off are the liberals at the moment, not the conservatives.
IGotBupkis, "Si tacuisses, philosophus mansisses." (225d0d) — 5/18/2015 @ 5:26 pmhere is the thing I do not get about raising awareness of white privilege.
All humans, without exception, seek out to maximize their privilege. It
is in their very nature. They do not voluntarily surrender privileges except for the expectation of greater privileges in return. To expect otherwise is like expecting cats to stop
licking themselves.
So what would white people, being human, dco if they believed that white privilege exists?
Michael Ejercito (d9a893) — 5/18/2015 @ 6:01 pmI’m not dead, yet!
But the damned VichyGOP is doing their best to RUN me off!
There are a couple of candidates I might consider voting for but I will no longer automatically pull the lever for the GOP. John McCain wasn’t worthy of my vote. And that is what finally convinced me to stop pulling the lever for them automatically.
But, I really don’t think McConnell and Boehner mind being in the minority.
WarEagle82 (d35bad) — 5/18/2015 @ 6:03 pmThe thing, though, is at some point liberals reproduce. At least some of them. Regardless, the one’s that say “eek, what have I done” get to live a life of sorrow and pain.
The ones that say “what a blessing” get to enjoy the rest of their days.
In the long run, I’m guessing the “blessing” folk will outlive the “eek” folk, even though the “eeks” tend to populate popular culture now. Because, you know, everything about them is “eek.” “eek” is not a long-term strategy.
Numbers don’t lie.
Ag80 (eb6ffa) — 5/18/2015 @ 9:42 pmlibtard!
hah!
happyfeet (831175) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:26 pmPolitico is NOT a news organization. They are a leftist propaganda organ and have never been anything else. Every single founder and main contributor was a member of Ezra Klein’s secret email propaganda ring “Journolist,” dedicated to managing and framing the news to favor Obama in particular and Democrats in general, because the readers cannot be trusted with “bare facts.” That ring never really went away, as Klein has admitted.
And they could not meet payroll with the “news service” they sell the White House and several other executive agencies for a reported $140,000 a year EACH, which consists of a daily summary of news stories with links to sources. In other words, their entire business model is based on selling Drudge’s content slightly reformatted. Do you think they want to keep their only customers happy?
Estragon (ada867) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:34 pm“withOUT the ‘new service'” – sorry.
Estragon (ada867) — 5/18/2015 @ 11:34 pmMaybe I should offer an article proposal to Politico: “The Impending Decline of AARP.” It seems that AARP has hundreds of members dying every day, and not one of their members is less than 50 years old. In fact, hardly anyone in their 20s has any interest in joining AARP nor do they care much about the organization. I wonder if Politico would pay me for an article about that.
Joshua (9ede0e) — 5/19/2015 @ 11:33 amI saw Walker today tell Baier we needed the enhanced Patriot Act and all that metadata to protect our way of life.
This despite not one saved life with illicit metadata.
I am not encouraged.
DNF (208255) — 5/19/2015 @ 6:40 pmSince Perry was seen here recently, I want to add a comment I made to Perry Hood of Lewes, Delaware, a near-octagenarian who has been spreading the same lies since at least 2008.
John Hitchcock (dd5671) — 5/22/2015 @ 12:54 amThis was in reaction to a comment Perry made that was in his total keeping outside the topic that was started with the thread-starting article I wrote, namely “Is Easter the most important celebratory day for Christians” where I posited it might be but it might also not be. He had nothing on-topic to say, neither did “Phoenician in a Time of Romans” (NZT, for New Zealand Troll).
John Hitchcock (dd5671) — 5/22/2015 @ 12:59 amBy the way, I was attacking Perry, who in this instance was attacking the Dana who writes articles here.
John Hitchcock (dd5671) — 5/22/2015 @ 1:16 amAnd that professor with a PhD on “another site” was Eric Blair on this site.
John Hitchcock (dd5671) — 5/22/2015 @ 1:19 am