Patterico's Pontifications

1/5/2015

Boehner Challenged for Speaker of the House Position

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:40 am



Louie Gohmert and Ted Yoho will be challenging “Weepy John” Boehner for the Speaker of the House position. I’ll mostly avoid commentary on this, the latest in a series of internecine wars in the GOP, other than to note that it doesn’t matter much, except perhaps symbolically. No meaningful legislation can be passed while Barack Obama is president, and the 2016 race is, politically, all that really matters.

Symbolically, Boehner represents business as usual, and he will undoubtedly win. Business as usual generally does. But it’s nice to see a challenge to the status quo, and it would be nice to see the comfortable shaken up. (As an example of the status quo mentality, see Rep. Tom Cole’s claim that the challenges to Boehner are “unprofessional.”) So, go Louie!

I will note one fact about Gohmert that you are certain not to to read in any other analysis: he took an active role in seeking a real investigation of my SWATting incident. That’s something I won’t forget.

96 Responses to “Boehner Challenged for Speaker of the House Position”

  1. Once my absurd lawsuit with Brett Kimberlin is over, hopefully I will be able to say more about Rep. Gohmert.

    Patterico (9c670f)

  2. There is a possibility that some Democrats, recognizing the anvil around the neck that Obama has been, might support some bipartisan policies such as incremental reform of Obamacare. That could produce some majorities that Obama might be reluctant to challenge. Keystone pipeline will be the first but not the last.

    Grandstanding will not help.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  3. Boehner has a mandate to lead Team R into the minority.

    What mandate does this Louie person have?

    None! He has NO mandate! He’s unprofessional!

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  4. Cool – 2 bald white guys.

    carlitos (c24ed5)

  5. Gohmert understands the potential of this Congress, Boehner does not,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  6. Without Boehner leading, less likely to have Pres Barak’s actions funded as a RINO ploy
    and less chances of getting cowed.

    seeRpea (303c15)

  7. Why is the terrorist bomber Kimberlin allowed to even be in court with a claim against Patterico?

    seeRpea (303c15)

  8. wow, Cole is a deputy whimp and he showed up on MSNBC. Is he a RINO too?

    seeRpea (303c15)

  9. If you like your Speaker, you can keep your Speaker. There’s a lot of mouths to be fed out of the public trough and for the trough to continue to remain filled requires the Red piggies and the Bleu piggies to do what their big money donors tell them to do and play nice so the big money donor piggies can continue to loot the country with government piggy help. It’s all theater and it will continue as long as everybody can go to a theater and buy all the popcorn and Milk Duds he can eat. But it’s nice for old guys to have a place where we can sit and kvetch about it when it’s too cold to stand outside and watch the girls go buy in short skirts and halter tops. (Which kind of raises a question for you Californians but de gustibus non est disputandum — whatever turns you on — I guess.)

    nk (dbc370)

  10. Gohmert needs 30 votes to topple Boehner. He probably has a good dozen already, but the thing about toppling the King is you had better win. If he has the 30 votes, Boehner is gone. If not, Gohmert will get about 5, and everyone else will pretend they never heard of him.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  11. Erick Erickson pointed out that conservatives have a veto power over the Speakership — unless, of course, Mr Boehner pulls in some Democratic votes specifically to retain his office — but not the votes to force their own choice.

    The option then is to look at how smaller coalition partners in parliamentary systems bargain for real power without the Speakership, which means the Minority Leader’s position and chairmanship of the Budget, Appropriations, Rules and Ways and Means Committees, with Appropriations and Rules the real prizes.

    It is in those committees that the real work of the legislature gets done, and the Chairman of the Appropriations Committee is the one man with the power to really get spending cut.

    The Republican Dana (f6a568)

  12. Any reason to believe Boehner has not already divvied up that pie?

    nk (dbc370)

  13. In defense of Boehner: He has stopped most every bill that Obama wanted for the last 4 years. He forced Obama to accept the sequester and several other things even without the Senate control. OTOH, he did not drive a very hard bargain on must-pass budget deals, but that was in part because many GOP members were unwilling to sustain a shutdown (and still are).

    Myself, I would give him the benefit of the doubt for this year (McConnell, too, although I would replace him first) to see what they could/would do. The opening is there to force Obama to sign things. I would hate to see this be 2 years of fruitless posturing, followed by a repudiation by a pissed-off electorate.

    But then I don’t see how standing on principle, and losing everything, is better than winning what you can and working for the long term. The idea that America is just waiting to flock to a strong Conservative (whatever that means) banner seems like 1964 redux.

    I’m sure there are plenty of people here who know better, though.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  14. they said he was one of the supposed losses by the tea party, in the last cycle, not really:

    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2015/01/05/5426396/gops-freshman-class-president.html#.VKq_QctARMs

    narciso (ee1f88)

  15. I heard “some poll result” say that 25% of repubs were ready to stay home in 2016 if Boehner remains speaker.

    Deeper analysis (and maybe true) aside, giving a year long CR in the lame duck session just after taking over the Senate as well as increasing the margin in the House sent a VERY BIG it doesn’t matter message to the conservatives in the alliance.

    If we can’t trust them to do something as obvious as make their own budget, I’m not even sure we can trust them to oppose Erwin Chemerinsky as an appointment to the Supreme Court.

    Yes, Obama has veto power, but we can put forth reasonable bills and make him veto them for the public to see, rather than have everything buried by Reid.
    But if they’re not willing to put forth legislation that Obama disagrees with, then what good are they?

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  16. Mr Boehner pulls in some Democratic votes specifically to retain his office — but not the votes to force their own choice.

    He cannot go there. For every Dem he gets, he will lose two Republicans. Ask California Speakers Doris Allen and Brian Setencich about that. Both Republicans were elected in 1995 with Democrat votes (plus theirs) in a 40-39 Assembly. Both were recalled and lost.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  17. I’ll just say that watching Boehner give away one year of budget under the dem senate was enough already of a see what they will do. Maybe I’m wrong and there was some wisdom behind it, but has yet to be explained satisfactorily.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  18. Erwin Chemerinsky as an appointment to the Supreme Court.

    1) Please, not before my breakfast.

    2) Again there was a huge difference between Romney and Obama, and those that stayed home or protested, in whatever state, share the blame.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  19. I’ll just say that watching Boehner give away one year of budget under the dem senate was enough already of a see what they will do. Maybe I’m wrong and there was some wisdom behind it, but has yet to be explained satisfactorily.

    The fiscal year had already started and was being run by continuing resolution. They would have had to spend half their first year messing with appropriations for an expiring fiscal year, rather than working on a THOROUGH change for 2015-16. Simply put, they decided to stop rehashing Old Business and push on to New Business.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  20. But he was ‘just in over his head’ a rallying cry if ever there was one,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  21. yes, but they always end up in the briar patch, what will be the excuse next year,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  22. True, Kevin, but Boehner just said that a Repub controlled Senate doesn’t matter.

    That’s one thing different between libs and conservatives. Libs will line up and “pull the big lever with a D” if Stalin was on the ballot. Conservatives want a reason to do something that interferes with their way to and from work. If the Repubs send a big enough message that their opinion doesn’t matter, what should they expect?

    They could at least agree that the Tea Party people have some real legitimate concerns about the budget and deficit and Congressional votes without time to read a bill (Hint, Hint), but they won’t even do that.
    I think there is plenty of blame to share.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  23. Not a good enough reason for me, Kevin. If we are in such bad shape that we wanted repubs in, why give away 6 months of the old without having to? Do the CR for 3-4 months and let spending for the rest of the fiscal year reflect some of the coming changes now.

    But what did they do, did a CR except for Homeland Security I think to “have pressure on amnesty”.
    So, Obama forces the repub Congress to not fund anti-terrorism agencies over immigration reform, how is that going to work?

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  24. it’s a cunning cunning, plan, ACME wouldn’t lie to us, sarc

    narciso (ee1f88)

  25. Maybe Sarah Palin, Ben Carson, or Allen West should establish a residence within Boehner’s home district and see if he gets the hint.

    I think that would be a really great idea, maybe especially Allen “payback time” West.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  26. Not a good enough reason for me, Kevin.

    Perhaps, but it is a reason. I would like to see them play out that strategy for a bit before I decided they were wrong. Sometimes armchair quarterbacks have to let the real players play.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  27. That would call for a sacrifice above and beyond the call of duty, MD. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/OH/8

    nk (dbc370)

  28. MD,

    If Boehner cannot do the deed, he’ll be out before the end of the year. Deposed speakers usually resign their seats, so really no need to primary him with someone special.

    Personally, I expect the Senate to be the problem.

    Kevin M (25bbee)

  29. inertia is what pulled the Roman Empire through some very rough touch-and-go patches

    happyfeet (a037ad)

  30. 2.Mike K (90dfdc) — 1/5/2015 @ 7:47 am

    There is a possibility that some Democrats, recognizing the anvil around the neck that Obama has been, might support some bipartisan policies such as incremental reform of Obamacare.

    Not only that, but there’s a time bomb that is going to go off sround late April or May:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/26/your-money/affordable-care-acts-tax-effects-now-loom-for-filers.html

    For instance, most of the 6.7 million people who bought insurance through the exchanges received subsidies, which reduced their monthly premiums. But those subsidies were based on previous years’ income — so people whose incomes have changed will inevitably have to pay some of that money back, while others may receive fatter refunds…

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/26/your-money/how-affordable-care-act-rules-affect-your-taxes.html?_r=0

    http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/11/12/4317123/new-health-care-law-complicates.html

    Jackson Hewitt Tax Service is predicting on its website that more than a third of people who received health insurance subsidies were overpaid and now will owe “pretty hefty repayment liabilities.” Others could end up paying hundreds of dollars in penalties for failing to buy health insurance.

    The new law contains the most sweeping changes in the federal tax code in the past two decades and will affect between 25 million and 30 million people nationwide, said Mark Ciaramitaro, vice president of tax and health care services at H&R Block.“It is going to be daunting,” Ciaramitaro said. “If you try to read the instructions, you will be mystified.”

    Then theer are people who became unemployed, and fell below the threshhold for a subsidy, or found work and are disqualified from Medicaid, and will owe thousands of dollars in premiums.

    That could produce some majorities that Obama might be reluctant to challenge.

    There are two factors that would affect Obama: How something will look to teh general public, and the possibility of a veto being overridden.

    Keystone pipeline will be the first but not the last. Keystone pipeline will just get a simple veto, with Obama claiming that since all the oil sent trhough it would go to third countiresd, it can’t affect prices in the United States.

    Grandstanding will not help.

    Sammy Finkelman (6ee5be)

  31. Please let Mr. Gohmert win, or he and those who voted for him had best form a third party.

    mg (31009b)

  32. ” Keystone pipeline will just get a simple veto,”

    My point was that the GOP only needs 6 Democrats to override.

    Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, said Sunday on “Face the Nation” that Democrats would try to add amendments to the Keystone XL bill to ensure it creates more jobs — like requiring the steel used to be made in America.

    That would be OK with me. Schumer says Obama should still veto it but it might be tough with Democrat amendments added.

    The closer it is to 60, the less Obama may want to test it.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  33. Mr K wrote:

    My point was that the GOP only needs 6 Democrats to override.

    This is incorrect; it requires a 2/3 supermajority in both Houses of Congress to override a Presidential veto; that means 67 votes in the Senate (13 Democrats needed) and 290 in the House (43 or 44 Democrat votes needed, depending upon who fills the vacancy).

    The Constitutional scholar Dana (f6a568)

  34. Boehner is a racist, how else can one explain how he screwed up Col. West’s voting area, and then gave him zero funds for re-election.
    Racist traitorous rino jerk.

    mg (31009b)

  35. no, that was our ‘beloved’ florida leg, which was responsible for exiling him 50 miles from his home district,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  36. Mr Finkelman wrote:

    Keystone pipeline will just get a simple veto, with Obama claiming that since all the oil sent trhough it would go to third countiresd, it can’t affect prices in the United States.

    The Keystone XL pipeline is purely symbolic at this point: the oil companies haven’t been waiting around, but have increased their shipments by rail, and at this point, The Wall Street Journal reported that the oil companies no longer even care if the pipeline gets built.

    That leaves only two points:

    1 – Will the environmentalists concede on the pipeline, because shipment by rail is inherently more dangerous; and
    2 – Will the current drop in oil prices make the Keystone pipeline useless?

    The environmentalist whackos don’t want the oil to be used at all, but they lost on that one, a while ago, and we have more supply than demand now. That will (probably) put the tar sands refining out of service for the short term, but it will resume eventually, when prices increase.

    The environmentalist Dana (f6a568)

  37. 32.” Keystone pipeline will just get a simple veto,”

    Mike K (90dfdc) — 1/5/2015 @ 10:23 am

    My point was that the GOP only needs 6 Democrats to override.

    No, no. Six to overcome a filibuster (filibusters have become extremely easy in recent years – no longer is it necessary to actually talk, and other business can proceed in the meantime.

    The cloture rule was first devised in 1917, after President Woodrow Wilson complained that ““A little group of willful men” [11 out of 96 Senators] “representing no opinion but their own, have rendered the great government of the United States helpless and contemptible.” They had blocked a bill to arm American merchant ships against German submarines. Cloture required a 2/3 majoroty to invoke cloture – the same percentage as that required to override a veto, and for many years there was actually no or almost no cloture.

    But in the 1970’s the 2/3 majority for cloture was reduced to 60 Senators. I think that may be actually 60 – not 3/5.

    To override a veto by Barack Obama would require 67 Senators, if all were present and
    voting. If all 54 Republicans voted for something, they would have get 13 Democrats and independents or 13/44, or 29.5% of the Democratic caucus. But Obama would flinch and negotiate if it was approaching 62 or 63.

    The only thing is, the Keystone pipeline is just not the kind of an issue where, if people are for it, they are strongly for it.

    Sammy Finkelman (6ee5be)

  38. Sen. Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, said Sunday on “Face the Nation” that Democrats would try to add amendments to the Keystone XL bill to ensure it creates more jobs — like requiring the steel used to be made in America.

    Yes, they’d try that.

    I think Schumer (to help Obama) would actually want to see amendments defeated, so Senators would have an excuse to vote against the bill. If they got one thing in the bill, they’d try for something else, hoping Republicans wouldn’t go along.

    Ideally, they’d propose something which the companies building it would say that if that was included, they wouldn’t build it.

    Then, if the bill passed, they could blame the companies, or if it didn’t, they could blame the Republicans.

    This way they could absolve the Democratic Party from the blame for not getting it built, while getting credit from the more politically astute opponents for stopping it.

    Sammy Finkelman (6ee5be)

  39. No need for that screechy Yoko!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  40. 36. The environmentalist Dana (f6a568) — 1/5/2015 @ 10:41 am

    1 – Will the environmentalists concede on the pipeline, because shipment by rail is inherently more dangerous; and

    They won’t concede, because the envioronmental activists don’t care too muich, or even notice, reality.

    As for rail shipments, their natural response would be: “Stop that too!”

    2 – Will the current drop in oil prices make the Keystone pipeline useless?

    Nobody knows et what is going to happen to oil and natural gas prices over the long run, but they are already beginning to think that a lot of drilling on North Dakota might stop and many people find themselves out of work.

    The environmentalist whackos don’t want the oil to be used at all, but they lost on that one, a while ago,

    In principle, or in general, but that motivates them in individual cases.

    There’s even this meme: Two thirds or whatever of oil resveres must stay in the ground to halt global warming.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/25/todd-stern-fossil-fuels-ground-climate-change-obama

    Obama’s climate change envoy: fossil fuels will have to stay in the ground

    Todd Stern claims the world will have to forgo developing reserves of oil, coal and gas in order to solve global warming.

    Sammy Finkelman (6ee5be)

  41. We have seen the enemy and he is us. That said, time for new leadership in both houses!

    Colonel Haiku (2601c0)

  42. nk, there are much worse places to live than that district, though it is not the most scenic or attraction filled, I’ll give you that.

    Kevin M.- I’m not a betting man, or I would bet you on that. I certainly realize one needs to decide what battles to take and what hill to die on if it is going to be your last one, but I think Boehner has already betrayed what the voting public wants, if not by doing a CR for the rest of the year during the lame duck session, then by the way he did it, unless I understand things incorrectly. My understanding is that it was essentially yet again another closed door negotiation and was presented for a vote before the typical member of Congress could have had a chance to read it.

    I bet on that issue alone, if someone could keep it in the front of people’s attention, would boot any repub and many dems out. We average Americans may not understand a lot, but we understand enough that we know asking people to read what they are voting on before they vote on it is pretty basic, and anyone in leadership who can’t go along with that ought to be run out of town on a rail with tar and feathers… being chased by a pack of bird dogs.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  43. I think we ought to have more pictures of caribou grazing along the Alaskan pipeline combined with fried birds from solar installations and chopped birds from windmills.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  44. #27: nk, The govtrack.us site is very interesting. Thanks for the link. If you click on the Representative’s name, it takes you to a page where they have more information about him or her. The chart displaying “ideology” versus “leadership” is intriquing. You have to dig into the meanings of both factors, but they seem to be appropriatedly labeled. Boehner shows up a one of the least ideological reps, and one that is rather low on the leadership scale. The latter may be a result of his position as Speaker. It is determined by the number of the bills he sponsors and who his co-sponsors are. Perhaps Speakers don’t sponsor bills? The ideological ranking of near zero is certainly supported by the issues he spends his political capital on.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  45. To override a veto by Barack Obama would require 67 Senators, if all were present and
    voting.

    You’re right, of course. I was thinking of cloture. It’s a farther reach but not impossible.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  46. I think there’s a better chance of having that happen with some bill that affects Obamacare.

    Sammy Finkelman (6ee5be)

  47. no, that was our ‘beloved’ florida leg, which was responsible for exiling him 50 miles from his home district,

    Why didn’t the DoJ step in to maintain the number of minority-represented districts?

    Kevin M (56aae1)

  48. Theer was good and bad legislation in the Cromnibus bill.

    One good thing maybe is that they saved the Internet from Barack Obama’s attempt to do something that would destroy it.

    http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/12/congress_quietly_saved_internet_freedom_in_cromnibus.html

    Sammy Finkelman (6ee5be)

  49. Bird smoked at Ivanpah solar power plant.

    Actually “smoked” only gives an antiseptic description of what happens to a bird flying through the concentrated death ray zone. The birds explode as their innards boil.

    papertiger (c2d6da)

  50. I still think that, if Canada completes the alternate pipeline to the east coast, there may be some bitter feelings among the labor unions, and others.

    Still, if this end run around the Keystone holdup comes to fruition, it would give a lift to Canadian oil and government interests who feel they’re being played by Obama as he sweeps aside a long understood “special relationship” between the world’s two biggest trading partners to score political points with environmental supporters at home.

    Vox thinks it’s in trouble which means it will sail through

    One poll found that two-thirds of Quebecers are against the project. Many protestors oppose it for the same reason that environmentalists in the US oppose Keystone XL — more pipelines would allow Alberta’s oil sands to expand, which means more fossil fuels that exacerbate global warming.

    No, because Quebec exists on the same principle as Al Sharpton. Extortion is better than working for a living.

    Mike K (90dfdc)

  51. There were a number of Dems voting for KXL last Congress. Some lost (e.g. Landrieu) but some are still there. I think that they probably have 60-62 votes now. So 6 MORE votes would override.

    Kevin M (56aae1)

  52. Boehner dropped his garments one by one
    All with a clueless pride
    And as he stood in his womanhood
    Failed to see the great divide.

    (Got The Ballad of Eskimo Nell stuck in my head all morning.)

    nk (dbc370)

  53. #43: Doc, The temperatures near the focal point of the driven-mirror solar power plants are high enough (over 500C) to cause the air molecules in the vicinity of the collector to glow. I saw Solar Two in operation in Barstow in 1999, and I’m pretty sure any bird that happened to fly into the glowing area would have been carbonized. So I wouldn’t bother to look for any photographic evidence near the tower. However, a video of a Bald Eagle diving thru the area would certainly be a youtube hit.

    It seems to me that there was great concern over the California Condor about three decades ago. I haven’t seen anything about them recently, although wiki tells me that all the wild birds (27) were rounded up in 1987, and since then, with a captive breeding program, they’ve been reintroduced into specific wilderness areas with 225 now in the wild, and another 214 in the breeding program. Are they about to become extinct again? It is curious how the media selects its causes. It is even more curious how the EPA selects its victims.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  54. #49: papetiger, You’re the Man! And these poor creatures were a long way from the collector. It looks like a daylight version of the attack on Baghdad, only the birds and insects are the tracers and they are plumetting down not soaring up. And the rising air is also evident. I wonder what the guys who work there think about all this?

    Death Valley might be a better site for these kinds of developments.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  55. papertiger & bobathome –
    last I read it would take 346 natural nesting pairs of Eagles to replace the ones that have been chopped up at Altmont Pass in Ca.

    mg (31009b)

  56. This wiki article has a number of pictures of the Ivanpah plant, and one of them shows the glowing area around the three collector towers. The plant hasn’t delivered it’s intended power due to “clouds, jet contrails, and weather.” Nothing to be conerned about.

    The Ivanpah site looks to be a potential flyway for migrating wildlife as the Colorado River is about 50 miles east and south. That would be an ugly video.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  57. Altamont

    mg (31009b)

  58. The Tehachapi wind farms must also chop up their fair share. And we have extensive wind farms in the Ellensberg/Vantage area. This is not a good time to be a wide ranging avian. It really makes you wonder about the EPA. They seem overly eager to regulate homeowners and small farms, each new victim another means of terrifying the citizenry. But they seem indifferent to those entities that have the means to play the political game at the “K Street” level. Unless, of course, they have already been declared an enemy of the administration, in which no permit application will ever emerge from the review process even if it means the State Department must be called in.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  59. High power electric transmission lines are death on peregrine falcons. Every time local birdwatchers noticed one failed to return to the nest they immediately walked the power lines. Tweet bird prey set perched on the lines and the falcons broke their wings in diving attacks.

    ropelight (d138e4)

  60. Oompa Loompa’s are notoriously poor leaders.

    JD (86a5eb)

  61. I wonder if these sorts of concerns have any significance to Boehner, et al? These are classic non-market issues (preservation of wildlife) that are difficult to deal with. They suggest something like the EPA is needed, but the EPA has already demonstrated that it is not competent to handle such issues ethically. It’s all politics and the recourse seems to be to surrender to those who threaten the peace with the biggest riots.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  62. I disagree the Speaker doesn’t matter. I fear Boehner will reach across the aisle in a way that helps pass legislation Obama and the Democrats want. I want a Speaker who will resist that temptation.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  63. I think the best we can hope for is the Speaker Boehner will be more sensitive to the issues of conservatives.
    Not that I think he will, but that’s about all we can hope for.
    Louie is not going to enjoy the exile to purgatory that will come to him for this blatant disrespect.

    askeptic (efcf22)

  64. Mr. Gohmert should have his own Mnt. Rushmore. Gowdy makes me want to puke. All the people that vote for Boehner should be held accountable for allowing treason to take place. Praise Louie Gohmert as he has testicles rino’s have lost.

    mg (31009b)

  65. Amazing, DNF. The audacity of no hope is the republican party. Whiging out is just a heartbeat away.

    mg (31009b)

  66. That may have been the same info I had heard.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  67. 66. It is a measure of our charity we do not ask the laggards ‘WTF took so long?’.

    DNF (58f71f)

  68. Obeohner can only play hardball against conservatives.
    Tar and Feathers, Tar and Feathers

    mg (31009b)

  69. I’ve seen the headlines of this Caddell Research poll on several sites. I haven’t been able to find the breakdown details, questions, and cross tabs posted anywhere though. If anyone has, (I’m sure they must be somewhere) can you point me to them, please? To the extent polls have value, the value of polls is in who was asked, what specifically was asked, and the comparison breakdown by various demographics. That’s what we all should be interested in and is what I’m looking for.

    elissa (ec09be)

  70. Gowdy makes me want to puke.

    The disappointment of high expectations, mg. He looked good beating trying to beat up on Lois Lerner to some people. I wasn’t impressed. Paul Ryan calling the IRS Commissioner Koskinen, a liar to his face, that was impressive. Futile, but at least Ryan took on a rich and influential man.

    nk (dbc370)

  71. I completely agree with the general point of needing to be critical of polls.
    But we know the poll that counted on election day said they wanted the brakes be put on Obama,
    and if they are not, and not even attempted to in some meaningful way
    people will feel betrayed.
    People are like that.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  72. No man is above reproach.

    OTOH, knee jerk defense of the DC political class correlates strongly with the absence of scruples.

    DNF (58f71f)

  73. So true, nk. I get sucked into believing in someone like Gowdy only to learn he’s one of them.

    mg (31009b)

  74. I found the wording of Gohmert’s press release about his availability as speaker a bit strange. As in oddly worded. He kept talking about any adult American could fill the post.

    Turns out he is right. There is no requirement that the Speaker be a Congressperson. It can be any adult American.

    So perhaps Sarah Palin for Speaker?

    It has never happened before but I kind of like the idea of a speaker who is unbeholden to any particylar constituents. Let them spend full time on speakering.

    Ron Paul might make another good candidate.

    John Henry

    John Henry (5a6367)

  75. Thanks narciso.. It’s a start—but—. Those are not complete details on the questions by a long shot. (Just as an example they mention a random list of individual’s names–yet only Boehner is shown in the questions and answers. Who were these other people that were apparently asked about and more importantly who ordered and financed the poll? ) Nor is the subject selection method outlined–what was the starting point to get the majority republican phone numbers. The numbers of “n” versus those who are actually answering do not seem to jibe. The number of answerers seem make this a very small poll indeed.

    MDin Philly this is not a case of being critical of the results of this particular poll or any other poll although I admit that the more I studied them and got to understand how easily they are manipulated, the less merit I tend to give them across the board. One absolutely must know why the poll was commissioned, and by whom, to discover if it is a true information gathering survey or a confirmation survey. It needs to be understood that without full disclosure of methodology any survey or poll is primarily just headline material/click bait and not much more than that in the way of useful analyzable substance.

    elissa (ec09be)

  76. 47
    The local minority district is the 20th. Congresscreep is Alcee Hastings. I do not need to say more about him.
    Col. West’s actual original home district is the 23rd. Ccongresscreep is Debbie Wasserman. It is the definition of a safe seat. West would have had no chance of winning there. This past election, the GOP candidate claimed to want to solve the deficit without making any changes to entitlement programs (cough) and was kind of for Obamacare if you used a different name (cough cough). He still managed to disappear into oblivion. (There was a primary for the GOP slot, actually. I am not sure why the candidate who truly was a conservative lost the primary, but he did.). The 23rd is the district I live in.😠
    West’s actual district was at the time he won a true swing district, electing over the years people from both parties. The last redistricting made it somewhat more Democrat and therefore more hostile to West, for the sake of strengthening another GOP district, IIRC. So he moved north, and still lost.

    kishnevi (3719b7)

  77. I think we are in agreement, elissa. I did not mean “critical” of the poll in the sense of arguing with it, but the need to make a careful (“critical”) analysis of just what is what in any poll.

    Then what I added was just saying that whether or not this was a good poll with proper conclusions or not (which I have not investigated and make no claim on), that other sources would suggest the same sentiment.

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  78. kishnevi, do we think the people in Florida did that in spite of Boehner, with the approval of Boehner, or did Boehner and the nation leaders had nothing to do with it?

    MD in Philly (f9371b)

  79. I see your point, it’s kind of a Rorshach, but it’s fairer than a recent poll, that was interpreted as telling Cheney and the Huntress to shut up,

    narciso (ee1f88)

  80. I doubt Boehner and Co. had much to do with it.
    The Florida legislature has been dominated by the GOP for almost two decades, and has gerrymandered itself into a stranglehold. The members tend to do what they want, and ignore whomever they want. Some members are good, but overall…the less said the better. Rubio got his Senate seat as a result of his leadership position in the state HoR, btw.

    kishnevi (3719b7)

  81. 76. And another false argument against rebellion is that no alternative to Boehner can triumph.

    The office can go unfilled and did so during Civil War, the Prequel.

    DNF (58f71f)

  82. Congress will so clothe themselves in glory over the next annum that the GOP will lose seats in both chambers.

    DNF (58f71f)

  83. #77: elissa, The people who pay for such polls are given crosstabs that make the response much more understandable. When these kinds of polls are released in the form shown, they are intended only to advance an agenda. We presume that politicians are savy to these issues, but they are not. They can be led around by the nose just like Gruber’s base. I wonder how many constituent letters it would take to counteract a 300 person “scientific poll”, three hundred, a thousand, ten thousand? And yet the letters would give a legislator more information and a deeper understanding of the feelings of the electorate provided only that he delved into them with the same curiousity that is applied to polls. Perhaps we should all spend more time writing to those we hope will represent us.

    bobathome (348c8a)

  84. Simply put, they decided to stop rehashing Old Business and push on to New Business.

    and, if you believe that, i have some incredible investment opportunities for you…

    Boner means “business as usual” in support of the Beltway RINOs of the GOPe, and “up yours” to middle America.

    redc1c4 (a6e73d)

  85. 70. 71. 77. 85.

    70. elissa (ec09be) — 1/5/2015 @ 7:05 pm

    To the extent polls have value, the value of polls is in who was asked, what specifically was asked, and the comparison breakdown by various demographics. That’s what we all should be interested in and is what I’m looking for.

    So many times, we don’t see poll breakdowns in recent…decades. Those facts may not even be released.

    We also don’t see don’t knows explicitly mentioned.

    And we don’t see the refusal rate, which has risen enormously since the 1980s.

    Sammy Finkelman (6b5229)

  86. 71. http://www.scribd.com/doc/251502982/National-Telephone-Survey-of-Republican-Voters

    This (which by the way, may have been an unauthorized disclosure *) gives us the questions and answers and percentages, but not the cross tabs, which may not be all that important here, except possibly by age (or geographical location)

    I’m not clear on what the subset who were asked most of the questions consisted of, or where they got the sample from.

    We see:

    Strong Democrat -> TERMINATE
    Not strong Democrat 1 -> 1
    Independent – Lean/Closer to Democrat 0
    Independent 11 Independent – Lean/Closer to Republican 13 → 31
    Not strong Republican 22
    Strong Republican 46 → 68
    Something else/ some other party 6 (
    Don’t Know/ Not sure) 0
    Refuse) 0

    Now 1 + 31 + 68 = 100.

    I can see that 22 + 46 = 68 but if that’s what the 68 is, are the 6 something else not polled further? And 11 + 13 = 24, not 31. The first column adds up to 99, which probably means all, except that it is 99 because of rounding. It migh be that “Something else/ some other party” are lumped in with “Independent” and “Independent – Lean/Closer to Democrat” Something earlier in the

    * unauthorized: For one thing, it was published by “Jeremy Moore” Somebody should save this, because it might get taken down on grounds of copyright violation.

    This may be a subset of a longer survey. That seems to be reinforced by the fact that the questions aren’t numbered here, but have an “X” instead.

    This may be a verson that was somewhat more widely circulated.

    Sammy Finkelman (6b5229)

  87. (Don’t Know/ Not sure) and (Refuse)were both in parenthesis (probably indicating volunteered) and 0 at that point in the survey.

    85. bobathome (348c8a) — 1/5/2015 @ 10:34 pm

    I wonder how many constituent letters it would take to counteract a 300 person “scientific poll”, three hundred, a thousand, ten thousand?

    But constituent letters are biased – sometimes – often really – people only on one side of an issue are motivated to write. Usually those who want to support the member of Congress -(support because people want to write to someone who will listen to them – they will write to a member of Congress not to give in or thanking him for not doing so. That is, it will be in line with what he was doing or saying before. Except for organized campaigns, which are usually obvious, people don’t write to people with whose views they disagree or to people whom they think are adamantly opposed to what they are saying.)

    Perhaps we should all spend more time writing to those we hope will represent us.

    This proves my point here. People don’t write to people with whose views they disagree or to people whom they think are adamantly opposed to what they are saying. So it cannot function as a poll.

    Not even maybe when a member of Congress is switching position, because the motivation is not the same on all sides of an issue.

    Sammy Finkelman (6b5229)

  88. When Oboehner is elected speaker it will start the total demise of the republican party.
    You bettcha rino’s

    mg (31009b)

  89. Caddell, and Schoen for that matter, is a fave of Fox, especially Cavuto, and Breitbart.

    But then I still believe Mother loves me.

    DNF (58f71f)

  90. 91. We’ll all be following the lead of the vets and your folk, naturally, but job one in the hinterlands will be tracking Thugees to their homes dashing in their babies’ heads.

    For their part the Dhims will bring the fight to us.

    DNF (58f71f)

  91. 90. mg (31009b) — 1/6/2015 @ 4:31 am

    When Oboehner is elected speaker it will start the total demise of the republican party.

    This is something expected. Why would that be the start of the demise, even if it is only the start of the total demise?

    And you don’t say the demise of the “Tea Party” but the demise of the “Republican Party”

    Sammy Finkelman (6b5229)

  92. Sammy, of course letters are “biased”. It takes a child-like innocence to think that polls are not equally biased. They are called scientific polls because if someone else were to contact an equivalent group of people contemporaneously, with the same questions and protocol, they would find results that are statistically similar. But the bias is built into the design of the poll.

    My point is that a politician who spent the time and energy to figure out who was writing him could learn a lot. It isn’t simply a count of the fors and againsts, it’s determining whether the writers are simply robots doing their union/lobbyist duty, imaginary trolls, or whether they are a diverse set of individuals. With the FEC data that is available online, it really wouldn’t be difficult.

    I have always been impressed by Democrat politicians and their ability to deal to with letters in an intelligent manner. I rarely write them, since I know they won’t be deterred from wreaking the country, but when I do they reply quickly and address each point. It’s all form letter stuff, but someone has figured out what I said and then plugged in the appropriate party line. I have less “success” with Republicans.

    bobathome (348c8a)


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