Patterico's Pontifications

4/4/2013

North Korea Follows Threats to Nuke U.S. With Missile Test; U.S. Places Missile Shield Obama Doesn’t Want on Heightened Alert

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 7:36 am



Obama is going to let Iran get the bomb. Never fear. Bill Clinton let North Korea get the bomb, and that’s working out just fine:

The Pentagon has placed its national missile defense shield on heightened alert amid reports that North Korea is preparing a missile flight test, according to defense officials.

The higher alert status includes moving two Aegis-equipped missile defense ships to waters near North Korea and readying long-range ground-based interceptors in Alaska and California, said officials familiar with the status.

“I will cut investments in unproven missile defense systems,” Obama told us. Maybe he just wanted to be the one to test them in a real-life situation.

The increased readiness of the missile shield followed harsh threats by the communist regime in North Korea to conduct nuclear missile attacks against the United States.

Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said following a speech yesterday that North Korea has a “nuclear capacity now,” along with missiles.

Obama had planned a show of strength, which has been withdrawn because they’re worried about North Korea’s response. (Link for subscribers only.) You don’t feel reassured?

The worst part about being a human is the fairly certain knowledge that one day we will all kill each other. That’s the bad news. Here’s the good news:

263 Responses to “North Korea Follows Threats to Nuke U.S. With Missile Test; U.S. Places Missile Shield Obama Doesn’t Want on Heightened Alert”

  1. And if there’s a heaven and hell, how will that help us (referring to Lehrer’s little ditty)

    Heaven will be full of the smug. (if they weren’t before they got there, they will become so.)

    And Hell will be full of assholes. (and you will now know that you’re one too.)

    I can understand the atheist’s attraction to none of the above.

    Personally (no offense Pat, I hope you stay safe) I could do without much of anything past the Rockies.

    I always seems that, like the Middle East, all they export are sorrow and stupidity.

    Too bad the Big Rotten Apple isn’t within range.

    Jcw46 (0af03c)

  2. Were you pleased on 9/11/01?

    Maybe don’t answer that.

    Patterico (9c670f)

  3. We really did ‘dodge a bullet’ consider her state, has the leading BMD outpost, instead we have the Solon of Scranton;

    http://www.fas.org/spp//starwars/program/news01/121901biden.htm

    narciso (3fec35)

  4. chuck hagel lol

    he’s probably explaining to the nokotards right now about how this is really bad timing on their part given the sequester and such

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  5. The North Koreans couldn’t nuke a Hot Pocket, even if they had one (a Hot Pocket, that is). I’ll start paying attention when they figure out a way to launch a rocket with something other than a giant ACME-brand slingshot.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  6. Back when Clinton was president, and Perry was Secdef, I opposed their plan to bomb North Korea. To have unilaterally restarted the Korean War like that, without any overt approval from China or from the United Nations, might have gotten rid of the North Korean nuke program, but it would probably have made the US a pariah in Asia. North Korea withdrew from the nuclear nonproliferation treaty with six months’ notice, as that treaty allows. A militant and unilateral US stance to enforce “we-can-have-nukes-but-you-can’t” may well have backfired spectacularly in the long run.

    The much better approach by Clinton would have been to support a worldwide ban on the production of weapons-usable plutonium and uranium. It’s still not too late for such a ban, and it’s also still not too late for the US to join with China and the UN in giving North Korea an ultimatum to surrender its nuclear weapons.

    A ban on plutonium reprocessing and on the high enrichment of uranium would not affect civilian nuclear power, which only requires low enrichment of uranium. If such a worldwide ban were adopted, it would apply to the US, China, and all other countries, so unilateral enforcement measures by any one country (such as the US) would not inevitably be seen as hypocritical.

    Andrew Hyman (3fe187)

  7. ny was still ny in 2001

    they’re hardly recognizable as americans anymore

    they just lie there anymore like stupid dogs while their fascist keepers pat their stomach

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  8. As if Outlaw regimes actually follow the rules, this is why they went to AQ Khan’s ‘body shop’ for tech support.

    narciso (3fec35)

  9. 5. The North Koreans couldn’t nuke a Hot Pocket, even if they had one (a Hot Pocket, that is). I’ll start paying attention when they figure out a way to launch a rocket with something other than a giant ACME-brand slingshot.

    Comment by Leviticus (1aca67) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:04 am

    Yeah, but they don’t know that. That’s what makes them dangerous.

    http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/ac/row/an-2.htm

    An-2 was initially developed as an agricultural aircraft. Hence, the initial project name was SKh-1 (Selskoe Khozaistvo – Agriculture). First prototype flew on August 31, 1947. The aircraft went in production in 1949 and over 5000 were built. China began producing the AN-2 aircraft in the early 70s and it is still used by the North Korean military for troop transport.

    They still use biplanes.

    They have a whole class of officers called “minor generals.” They have no clue. They think they can win. Maybe they can’t nuke Seoul.

    They are still stupid enough to do a lot of damage.

    They maybe can’t nuke

    Steve57 (be3310)

  10. *They maybe can’t nuke*

    That was supposed to be edited out.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  11. The trouble with nukes is that you don’t need to be accurate if your goal is to frack up a city. Nor do you need a missile, folks. Lots of container ships and harbors.

    So bizarre as the North Koreans are, I take this kind of thing very seriously. If I am wrong, that is good news. Iran is even worse. And folks on the Left kept saying that this is no big deal. By the time it is a big deal, there may be many, many dead people.

    Oh sure, I could be wrong. Heck of a bet, though.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  12. 11. By the time it is a big deal, there may be many, many dead people.

    Oh sure, I could be wrong. Heck of a bet, though.

    Comment by Simon Jester (c8876d) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:27 am

    You’re not wrong. Artillery. MRLs. still lethal. I don’t get what the north’s game is. I don’t think even the Chinese will put up with it. Think they want a nuclear Japan? I don’t.

    Maybe they just want to go out in a blaze of

    Steve57 (be3310)

  13. blaze of glory.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  14. I swear to the Almighty I’m going back to a desktop when I but a new computer.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  15. “The trouble with nukes is that you don’t need to be accurate if your goal is to frack up a city. Nor do you need a missile, folks. Lots of container ships and harbors.”

    – Simon Jester

    I think that’s absolutely right. However, I think that if the North Koreans have nuclear weapons, and had the actual desire to use them, they would have already done so (by the method you imply) or helped someone else to do so (by the same method).

    I don’t necessarily doubt they have the weapons. I doubt they have the actual desire to use them. They want goodies, and their leader wants to consolidate his power. The detonation of a suitcase bomb anywhere in the world would basically amount to a death sentence for every military leader in North Korea, including Kim Jong-Un. I would imagine that he feels that he is too young to die.

    So I think it’s talk, and I don’t see a better option than ignoring it.

    Iran is different, and deserves much more attention than it gets.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  16. Also consider they see the regime down south as a successor to the puppet government that operated during the second World War.

    narciso (3fec35)

  17. *I’m going back to a desktop when I but a new computer*

    buy

    Steve57 (be3310)

  18. Leviticus:

    I think that if the North Koreans have nuclear weapons, and had the actual desire to use them, they would have already done so (by the method you imply) or helped someone else to do so (by the same method).

    A U.N. expert panel alleges that North Korea exported banned nuclear and ballistic missile technology to several rogue nations.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  19. From my link:

    The 75-page report, complied by a seven-member panel reporting to the United Nations Security Council, states that North Korea is involved in “nuclear and ballistic missile-related activities in certain countries, including Iran, Syria and Myanmar” and that special attention should be given by all member countries to inhibit such activities.

    The report, which was released this week, had been delayed from publication for six months by China, a friendly nation to North Korea, according to a diplomat familiar with the case. The diplomat spoke in a background briefing and did not want to be identified.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  20. North Korea is involved in “nuclear and ballistic missile-related activities in certain countries

    Like Iran. Maybe we can’t afford not to pay attention.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  21. But it’s such a ‘small country’ like Iran, only 60 million or so,

    narciso (3fec35)

  22. A ban on plutonium reprocessing and on the high enrichment of uranium would not affect civilian nuclear power, which only requires low enrichment of uranium. If such a worldwide ban were adopted, it would apply to the US, China, and all other countries, so unilateral enforcement measures by any one country (such as the US) would not inevitably be seen as hypocritical.

    Comment by Andrew Hyman (3fe187) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:10 am

    Do you actually believe the silliness you write? What makes you think anyone other than the USA would follow this foolishness. These nations sign agreements with us all the time and still ignore those agreements. Hell, France and other nations were buying oil from Iraq secretly during the embargo.

    Be realistic.

    NJRob (ec4db0)

  23. Hyman, your comment is astounding in its naivete.

    Leviticus, the most significant danger North Korea poses IMO is that there are millions of South Korean civilians within artillery range of North Korean artillery batteries. North Korea could kills hundreds of thousands of civilians in hours or minutes.

    SPQR (768505)

  24. One of the main obstacles to a worldwide ban on plutonium reprocessing and high enrichment of uranium has been Japan’s breeder reactor program which requires plutonium reprocessing. Breeder reactors don’t need as much fuel as conventional reactors, which has been attractive to resource-poor Japan.

    However, Japanese scientists have recently discovered how to extract uranium from sea water. So basically there is now enough uranium to supply all the world’s energy needs (100%) for more than a century, without plutonium reprocessing, and without high enrichment if uranium.

    Andrew Hyman (3ebb76)

  25. Obviously, I would not support any agreement or treaty that is not verifiable. If a country refuses inspectors, then an attack like Clinton planned in the 1990s would be fine with me.

    Andrew Hyman (b3bae2)

  26. DRJ @19, I Don’t know what the NORKs game is. And we can take them, don’t get me wrong. And I’d hate to be the first SEAL to do the first hydrographic survey of the landing beach.

    We can take them now.

    The problem with taking them then when Leviticus figures it’s a problem is by then it’s too late.

    I don’t know for sure that the NORK’s game is but I’m guessing they’ve worked out a distributed manufacturing system for nukes with Iran and who knows what else.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  27. Some would argue that Soviet block weapon systems, tactics are best deployed in surprize attack supported by overwhelming artillery fire and tank movement.
    The terrain in Korea negates the advantages of the high speed and tactical firepower of the sviet weaon systems

    Also, South Korea has as large an army much better equipped and would fight from hardened positions as well as fortified ones.

    http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/

    E.PWJ (bdd0a6)

  28. Jeeze, imagine SPQR’s scenario where the Norks launch an artillery attack on the South. Clearly we will be compelled to respond, which would raise all sorts of tough questions: Would we remove the Kim regime in Pyongyang? If so, does the U.S taxpayer now have to pick up the costs of reconstruction in North Korea? If we won’t, then does China get to remake the North in its image, and what effect will that have for the South? The ramifications of this could be horrible indeed.

    JVW (4826a9)

  29. Clearly we will be compelled to respond, which would raise all sorts of tough questions: Would we remove the Kim regime in Pyongyang?

    What happens if we don’t.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  30. One of the main obstacles to a worldwide ban on plutonium reprocessing and high enrichment of uranium has been Japan’s breeder reactor program which requires plutonium reprocessing. Breeder reactors don’t need as much fuel as conventional reactors, which has been attractive to resource-poor Japan.

    However, Japanese scientists have recently discovered how to extract uranium from sea water. So basically there is now enough uranium to supply all the world’s energy needs (100%) for more than a century, without plutonium reprocessing, and without high enrichment if uranium.

    Comment by Andrew Hyman (3ebb76) — 4/4/2013 @ 9:04 am

    No, the obstacle is human nature. There is no reason for the other nations to follow through on any agreement. What’s in it for them?

    NJRob (ec4db0)

  31. What happens if we don’t.

    See Iraq, 1991-2003.

    JVW (4826a9)

  32. JVW, I did see Iraq 1991-2003. I saw the play. Not the movie.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  33. NORK has had one successful ICBM launch.

    I fear Obozo and his policies more.

    Kevin P. (1df29c)

  34. JVW, I did see Iraq 1991-2003. I saw the play. Not the movie.

    Right. So I hope that you would agree we want to avoid repeating that whole scenario of constant provocations while Nork citizens continue to starve and be oppressed and the rest of the world shrugs its shoulders and regime.

    JVW (4826a9)

  35. NORK has had one successful ICBM launch.

    So if only one out of the five missiles they launch at us actually hits its target, it doesn’t really count?

    JVW (4826a9)

  36. “No, the obstacle is human nature. There is no reason for the other nations to follow through on any agreement. What’s in it for them?”

    The same thing that’s in it for us: reducing the worldwide amount of fuel for A-bombs.

    Andrew Hyman (228f86)

  37. The same thing that’s in it for us: reducing the worldwide amount of fuel for A-bombs.

    Comment by Andrew Hyman (228f86) — 4/4/2013 @ 9:32 am

    And since they’ve shown they have no interest in that… what else?

    NJRob (ec4db0)

  38. Hyman, that’s not a reason for individual nations to forgo their own capability.

    Your naivete seems to only be increasing.

    And your belief in somehow “agreement” being capable of contradicting physics is silly. No form of agreement can “reduce” the amount of fuel for nuclear weapons.

    You can’t destroy elements in enough quantities. The earth has more than enough uranium 235 for as many bombs as people want. The rest is physics and chemistry.

    SPQR (768505)

  39. Steve57, I just noticed that your initial response to my comment appears to be asking the question “what happens if we don’t respond to a Nork attack” rather than “what happens if we don’t remove the Kim regime.” My answer was based upon the latter question. In regards to the former, considering we have 30,000 troops in South Korea I don’t believe that not responding is an option, even for Obama.

    JVW (4826a9)

  40. 37. The same thing that’s in it for us: reducing the worldwide amount of fuel for A-bombs.

    Comment by Andrew Hyman (228f86) — 4/4/2013 @ 9:32 am

    You can’t be serious.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731

    Unit 731 (731部隊 Nana-san-ichi butai?, Chinese: 731部队) was a covert biological and chemical warfare research and development unit of the Imperial Japanese Army that undertook lethal human experimentation during the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937–1945) and World War II. It was responsible for some of the most notorious war crimes carried out by Japanese personnel. Unit 731 was based at the Pingfang district of Harbin, the largest city in the Japanese puppet state of Manchukuo (now Northeast China).

    What gave them the idea to do this is we tried to ban it.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  41. JVW, just saying. If we’re not willing to go to Baghdad, let’s not adopt a policy that requires us to go to Baghdad.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  42. Well, I’ve said what I wanted to say, so this is my last post in the thread. I’ve advocated a ban on production of certain nuclear materials that do not occur in nature. Highly enriched uranium and reprocessed plutonium do not occur in nature. The people of every country would be better off if no more of these materials are produced. We ought to stop making them, and the same fir everyone else. If the UN Security Council adopts this as an international norm, and the other major nations agree to it, then inspections can begin and outlier nations can be bombed. Cheers.

    Andrew Hyman (0104ff)

  43. Andrew @43, I actually don’t disagree with you. Not in a big way.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  44. if we all got together and marched for a nuclear-free world that would be sort of a waste of all our time but a lot of us have very sedentary jobs so it wouldn’t be a total waste

    it would be heart-healthy!

    well, depending on how much time you ended up sitting on the plane on the way to where we had the march

    but the other thing is we would probably all get to go home with really spiffy t-shirts what we could wear later and everyone would know we stood for peace peace peace not war war war

    plus some of us might get to be on the teevee

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  45. I’ve just have to have been at times serious.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  46. Andrew Hyman, U235 occurs in nature. It just takes industrial processes to separate it out.

    You can’t ban physics.

    Your belief that nothing is stopping everyone from joining hands around the campfire and singing Kumbaya is an astounding level of naivete.

    SPQR (768505)

  47. Mr. Feets, I thought you’d show up. Still rooting for me in the kumite even though we don’t see eye to eye on the gay marriage thingy?

    Steve57 (be3310)

  48. absolutely Mr. 57

    the gay marriage thingy will take care of itself but the kumite needs an ass-kicking for reals

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  49. So does North Korea. If get recalled for that ass kicking and live through it I’ll let you know how the kumite works out.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  50. JVW, just saying. If we’re not willing to go to Baghdad, let’s not adopt a policy that requires us to go to Baghdad.

    Wise advice. In this case, though, we may have to be willing to accept a Korean peninsula that is more-or-less under China’s thumb. My point is that a fight with North Korea will really suck, because even if we are willing to win it, we probably don’t want to bear the costs of reconstructing that screwed-up society. Into that void will rush China, and that will have awful ramifications for the South.

    JVW (4826a9)

  51. Andrew Hyman:

    If the UN Security Council adopts this as an international norm, and the other major nations agree to it, then inspections can begin and outlier nations can be bombed.

    I have several problems with your position. First, I submit it’s unlikely the UN would adopt your position without qualification or an escape clause for someone, somewhere.

    Second, I submit it’s unlikely that all major nations would agree to it, live according to its requirements, and enforce it. (And what about the “other” nations? The world is a different place and it takes more than just the agreement of “major” nations to make agreements like this work.

    In addition, countless individuals and groups, as well as some nations, would devote their energies to undermining any such agreement. Like gun control and prohibition, it might reduce the supply but it wouldn’t eliminate it. Do you really want only the world’s criminals to have access to nuclear materiel?

    Third, inspections can be rigged and are subject to human failings.

    Fourth, I think “outlier nations can be bombed” is wishful thinking. Military solutions, especially when they are the last resort, may or may not work. In addition, not many presidents have had the will to effectively use military solutions to stop nuclear proliferation, have they?

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  52. Reply to #39:” … The rest is physics and chemistry.”

    It is really not physics and chemistry. It is simple engineering.

    Jay Stevens (2a323b)

  53. My point is that a fight with North Korea will really suck

    I don’t disagree. I wasn’t alive when we got involved. Nobody asked me.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  54. It is sad to think that Tom Lehrer was the last funny intellect found within the Halls of Ivy.

    The Sixties brought “serious” discussions of war and peace, and drugs, social policy, and drugs, Social Justice, and drugs.
    Harvard traded-in Tom Lehrer, for Timothy O’Leary – it was not an improvement.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  55. But I’ll do it.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  56. I’ve advocated a ban on production of certain nuclear materials

    Chicago banned handguns… how did that w*rk out?

    as for the AN-2, it’s a biplane. so what? it has remarkable STOL capabilities, is able to fly at astonishingly slow speeds, can use unimproved landing strips, etc, all of which make it great for inserting or resupplying special ops teams behind enemy lines, just as one potential use.

    and the NORKs have *lots* of unconventional troops, last time i looked. underestimating your opponent is one of the worst mistakes anyone can make, regardless of what level of conflict you are engaged in, whether it be business, local politics or warfare. you should always honor the threat, not dismiss it.

    on the upside though, the good news is that we know have John Fing Kerry, certified “war hero”, to answer the phone at 3AM while Ear Leader gets his beauty sleep. i’m sure Lurch will have them trembling in their boots. (because they are laughing hysterically)

    redc1c4 (403dff)

  57. “…it would probably have made the US a pariah in Asia…”

    But, it would have been a pariah whose views were listened to, and respected – Strong Horses have that effect.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  58. “Leviticus, the most significant danger North Korea poses IMO is that there are millions of South Korean civilians within artillery range of North Korean artillery batteries. North Korea could kills hundreds of thousands of civilians in hours or minutes.”

    – SPQR

    I think the same logic applies, though – North Korean leaders don’t want to fight die. If they wanted to fight die, they would have fought by now.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  59. Leviticus, no, definitely the North Korean leaders don’t want to die.

    But their incentive structure is far different than you think it is. They are balancing on a tightrope of power politics inside North Korea, and starting a war does not have the disincentives you think it should.

    SPQR (768505)

  60. Hmmm. There’s some missing strikethroughs in that last comment of mine.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  61. Comment by Steve57 (be3310) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:19 am

    The beauty of the AN-2 is that it can operate virtually anywhere, improved fields not required.
    It was a work-horse of Soviet Civil-Aviation, and I’m sure examples are still in use servicing some of the more remote outposts in Siberia, summer and winter. It is simple, tough, and low-tech.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  62. If they wanted to fight die, they would have fought by now.

    The NORK leadership may not give either ones the choice.

    Have I sounded like this is a fight I want?

    I’ve looked at the NORK’s beach defenses.

    But I’ll do it, if that what it takes.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  63. SPQR,

    You could definitely be right. I tend to think they look at it as a “Certain Defeat vs. Potential Defeat” situation, though. I tend to think they’ll decide to try to fight the battle they think they can win.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  64. Leviticus, when you are on the losing side in North Korean politics, you get shot.

    SPQR (768505)

  65. Leviticus, I think you should think of it as a game of chicken where the North Korean sedan is full of North Korean generals all waving guns at each other and shouting for control of the steering wheel … while three of them in the backseat are building a nuclear bomb for giggles.

    SPQR (768505)

  66. I realize that, but you have the potential of not getting shot (and living in opulence) if you win. At the end of a war with the US, you will probably not be alive, and you will certainly not be living in opulence.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  67. Leviticus, but you can’t just decide to stop the car and not play chicken. The guy in the seat next to you shoots you and takes the wheel. And the guy in the seat next to you knows that if he stops playing chicken, you will shoot him.

    Its a game of chicken with 2 to the power of N sides.

    SPQR (768505)

  68. Comment by Leviticus (1aca67) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:36 am

    We err at our own peril when we subscribe Soviet-era rationality to the actions of the nut-case regimes that we are dealing with today: NoKor & Iran, particularly.

    The NoKors will lash-out against someone, at sometime, in a manner that not even the Chinese can ignore. An action that will result in a reaction resulting in the complete destruction of the Hermit Kingdom.
    The ME situation, with the spill-over of unrest from Syria into the West-Bank is going to lead to further, and increased, instability – a situation that Iran will attempt to exploit further.
    A good thing will be if the Fertile Crescent does not become a “mushroom farm”.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  69. “Leviticus, I think you should think of it as a game of chicken where the North Korean sedan is full of North Korean generals all waving guns at each other and shouting for control of the steering wheel … while three of them in the backseat are building a nuclear bomb for giggles.”

    – SPQR

    I think of it as a game of chicken where the North Korean generals are piled on a unicycle and the US is driving an Abrams. A clash will not end well for the unicycle, but it doesn’t matter because the unicycle is gonna fall over anyway.

    Leviticus (1aca67)

  70. 62. Comment by Steve57 (be3310) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:19 am

    The beauty of the AN-2 is that it can operate virtually anywhere, improved fields not required.
    It was a work-horse of Soviet Civil-Aviation, and I’m sure examples are still in use servicing some of the more remote outposts in Siberia, summer and winter. It is simple, tough, and low-tech.

    Comment by askeptic (b8ab92) — 4/4/2013 @ 10:26 am

    I actually think well of the AN-2 Colt.

    Just saying if I was going to fly into combat that wouldn’t be my first choice.

    But, yeah, it’s rugged and if you need an aircraft that can take off into the wind crossing an airstrip rather than along it then yeah.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  71. The North Koreans have a long standing successful practice of going grocery shopping by running into the grocery store with a live hand grenade and yelling “Fill my cart with groceries or I pull the pin”.

    SPQR (768505)

  72. Leviticus,

    There are a number of reasons why incentives in North Korea encourage its civilian and military leaders to escalate war tensions and even consider going to war. Whether it’s a bluff or legitimate, clearly North Korea has entered a far more bellicose and threatening phase.

    As the North Koreans continue to escalate tensions and increase their threats, I would not underestimate the possibility that war can happen even if the parties don’t intend it. In addition, there may be some North Korean leaders who will push for that result because they see war as a way to improve their standing. As WWI shows, all it takes is one small match to ignite a big flame.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  73. The real problem is what is Iran up to while we’re busy focusing/redeploying in response to NK? The days of our being able to respond to 2 major conflicts are longgggggggg gone.

    crazy (d60cb0)

  74. Well they have a new election coming up, with supposedly a crazier slate than Ahmadinejad on tap.

    narciso (3fec35)

  75. I will not name the country. But some people are in charge of substantial forces who are not what we would consider rational. We tend not to put them in charge of armies or navies.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  76. This business is super scary. When we’re in a time where I’ve realized that I don’t even “get” where half of my own countrymen can possibly be coming from–it is highly unlikely that our government can figure out what the Norks and Iranians are thinking and planning and why.

    I believe the Norks scare me most, though. In Iran (despite their current leadership) there are still intellectuals and engineers and military men and artisans who I suspect love their families, have some some property and land to protect, maintain some affinity toward the west and don’t want to die because of Dinner Jacket. North Korean society on the other hand has been so closed and buried in rot for so long, it’s been so poor and the people have been so deprived and damaged by their ruling family dynasty, that I think it is harder to predict what they are capable of or what the average North Korean has been told is being done to them by the west.

    I just dunno.

    elissa (3b31fc)

  77. Well they are much like the Corleones of North Asia, although Un is probably more Fredo then
    Michael,

    narciso (3fec35)

  78. Nor do you need a missile, folks. Lots of container ships and harbors.

    Submarines are a better delivery system.

    Michael Ejercito (2e0217)

  79. So if only one out of the five missiles they launch at us actually hits its target, it doesn’t really count?

    Comment by JVW

    One out of forty, is not a good track record.

    Kevin P. (1df29c)

  80. Being as I live in rural MN I say we make Un hit something first. Like Tokyo.

    This is nuclear extortion where the perp has no hits and one successful nuclear test to his credit.

    Thank you, thank you God for not birthing me in Norkistan.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  81. Well that’s totally out of the question considering the hatred they still harbor for the Japanese:

    http://freebeacon.com/confronting-iran/

    narciso (3fec35)

  82. we’ll have plenty of time to be scared after the nuclear splosions elissa

    it’ll be all over cable news

    I’m more worried about getting my taxes done

    I feel so violated

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  83. Mr Hyman wrote:

    The much better approach by Clinton would have been to support a worldwide ban on the production of weapons-usable plutonium and uranium. It’s still not too late for such a ban, and it’s also still not too late for the US to join with China and the UN in giving North Korea an ultimatum to surrender its nuclear weapons.

    Oh, yes, that would have worked, for sure! [eye roll]

    That is the same kind of logic used by the gun control folks: if we just ban private ownership of guns, criminals won’t have guns, because, after all, it would be against the law!

    The realistic Dana (3e4784)

  84. NORK has had one successful ICBM launch.

    And how many freighters?

    Remember, the first two nukes used never touched a missile.

    Rob Crawford (6c262f)

  85. JVW snarked:

    So if only one out of the five missiles they launch at us actually hits its target, it doesn’t really count?

    Quite possibly, yes. They have successfully launched one ballistic missile, and they’ve had two(out of three) successful atomic bomb tests. I absolutely support North Korea’s atomic bomb testing: every time they test, they blow up the better part of a year’s production of weapons grade fissile material.

    The result is that North Korea probably has a few atomic bombs available, and a couple of missiles, which may or may not be capable of carrying the bombs they have. With so few weapons available, their chances of a successful delivery with an atomic detonation on the target are actually fairly low. Fairly low isn’t zero, but it makes a difference.

    The realistic Dana (3e4784)

  86. Mr Crawford wrote:

    NORK has had one successful ICBM launch.

    And how many freighters?

    Remember, the first two nukes used never touched a missile.

    It is always possible to put an atomic bomb in a shipping container; that can never be defended against fully. North Korea’s atomic threat to the United States is not zero, but it is also not high.

    The very realistic Dana (3e4784)

  87. I think of it as a game of chicken where the North Korean generals are piled on a unicycle and the US is driving an Abrams. A clash will not end well for the unicycle, but it doesn’t matter because the unicycle is gonna fall over anyway.

    And when that unicycle falls, it could take millions of people with it AND start, at minimum, a regional war.

    Rob Crawford (6c262f)

  88. Senātus Populusque Rōmānus wrote:

    Leviticus, no, definitely the North Korean leaders don’t want to die.

    But their incentive structure is far different than you think it is. They are balancing on a tightrope of power politics inside North Korea, and starting a war does not have the disincentives you think it should.

    Death isn’t a disincentive?

    North Korea is a tightly controlled, organized to the max government, where everyone has his place. With a population surviving on grass and acorns, held under control solely by the military structure, the last thing the decision-takers want to do is stir the pot. That Kim Jung-un was able to succeed his father, because that was what his father wanted, is very much evidence of that; no one else was willing to rock the boat.

    Well, starting a war is very much rocking the boat. In North Korea, rocking the boat is wise only if you think you’ll knock somebody ahead of you into the water; for Kim Jong-un, there is nobody ahead of him to knock into the water.

    The Dana using too many clichés (3e4784)

  89. Dana, you are evidently of the opinion that Jong Un’s “rule” is secure. Not everyone shares that opinion.

    SPQR (768505)

  90. Dana,

    John Edwards liked to talk about the Two Americas but there really are Two North Koreas — one for the elites and another for the rest of the population. I suspect elite North Koreans are motivated to get ahead — perhaps even more than we Westerners since, in North Korea, if you lose, you die.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  91. Hey you — Koreans! Our president carries a big stick; a really big stick . . . he’s holding it hidden behind his back right now, but if you don’t cut it out he’s gonna show it to you, and then whatcha gonna do?

    Icy (6d6964)

  92. askeptic wrote:

    We err at our own peril when we subscribe Soviet-era rationality to the actions of the nut-case regimes that we are dealing with today: NoKor & Iran, particularly.

    Nuts? The Kim regime has survived, virtually unchallenged, in North Korea since 1950, through three generations of leaders. The only fat kid left in North Korea is still new to us, but he managed to retain control for the Kim dynasty, when he was only 27 or 28 years old, and had really no qualifications beyond what his father gave him. If he’s crazy, it’s crazy like a fox.

    Iran? The Ayatollah Ruhollah Khoumeini managed to depose the Shah, who had been in power for decades, and after his death, the other mullahs were able to retain power. Their logic isn’t our logic, but I find the notion that they are crazy, crazy.

    What those regimes are is successful, in the only manner in which they measure success, the retention of power. Whatever you think of their policies and their statements and their ideology, one thing is certain: there are some very able people running those places.

    The Dana who will not underestimate our enemies (3e4784)

  93. It’s all good on the missile defense shield thingy.

    The First Lady understands the need for these things in rural areas.

    Icy (6d6964)

  94. Here’s an example of one North Korean who is either reporting the uncertain dynamics occurring in North Korea today or attempting to rock the boat.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  95. They’re not ‘crazy’, Dana. They’re evil.

    Icy (6d6964)

  96. I’m surprised to see some commenters here comparing efforts to reduce nuclear proliferation to efforts to ban guns. There are key differences. First of all, no rational person thinks it’s okay for the neighbors to have A-bombs and H-bombs. Secondly, gun manufacturing is much simpler than making weapons-usable nuclear fuel, and so the former type of manufacturing is much easier to hid than the latter.

    Not Wayne Lapierre (3ebb76)

  97. SPQR wrote:

    Dana, you are evidently of the opinion that Jong Un’s “rule” is secure. Not everyone shares that opinion.

    Well, somehow, an untried, untested and only recently prepared 27 year old managed to retain the power his father bequeathed to him. There could be a lot of different reasons for that, though the one I see as most probable was that there was no group of other contenders for power who were willing to make a move.

    How long will his rule stay secure? No one knows, but we do know that the power structure in NK is very rigid, and that the risks of stepping out of line appear to be far greater than the odds of success.

    The Dana who looks at the evidence (3e4784)

  98. And how many freighters?

    Remember, the first two nukes used never touched a missile.

    Comment by Rob Crawford (6c262f) — 4/4/2013 @ 12:12 pm

    I believe Mr. Crawford gets the concept.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  99. Dana, Jong Un did not retain power because he alone stood off all other groups of contenders. He retained power to date because his group of supporters has been large enough and/or powerful enough to do so. We don’t know if he heads that group or figureheads it, really.

    SPQR (768505)

  100. Not Wayne Lapierre, but the analogy of nuclear weapons control to gun control works at the level of nation states versus individuals.

    SPQR (768505)

  101. DRJ wrote:

    Here’s an example of one North Korean who is either reporting the uncertain dynamics occurring in North Korea today or attempting to rock the boat.

    No, that’s an example of a passed over elder brother who might be North Korean in origin but who is not North Korean in practical fact, a man living in exile. He’s not even in the boat to rock it.

    The Dana who looks at the map (3e4784)

  102. Icy wrote:

    They’re not ‘crazy’, Dana. They’re evil.

    Certainly: oppressors are, by definition, evil. But that doesn’t mean that they are stupid or inept.

    I find it difficult to argue with success, and the North Korean governors and the Iranian chief mullahs have been very successful in retaining power, despite having made their countries worse for their people than before.

    The sadly realistic Dana (3e4784)

  103. Comment by SPQR (768505) — 4/4/2013 @ 10:33 am
    And what DRJ said-

    I think it is foolish to think one can get a handle on what NK will do,
    and often wars, like fights, happen when somebody pushes things just a little bit farther than they should and the miscalculation becomes tragic.

    I do think it is kind of funny that Obama makes a point of deploying a weapons system he previously said we didn’t need.
    Funny anyway if the lack of it doesn’t result in tragedy.
    Personally, the electro-magnetic pulse prospect should make us fear even one poorly aimed missile warhead, if they could get it over US territory. Which would be worse, shorting out the entire electrical grid in Southern CA or one atomic bomb in a ship in LA harbor?
    I don’t know enough about EM pulse to know if it takes a level of sophistication that NK doesn’t have.

    I would be much more worried if I lived in Seoul than anywhere else.

    Painted Jaguar (a sockpuppet) (3d3f72)

  104. Oh, and because they’re making so much progress fighting FX deflation:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/04/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSBRE93216U20130404

    Two years. Hell, they’ll be lucky if the Sun still rises over Japan by then. It’ll be a Chinese theme park.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  105. Frankly, NK has stepped way over the line and the next “test” ought to be put down with prejudice. Either zapped at launch by one of the 747-based laser platforms which by damn ought to be in SK by now, or blown out of the sky by an Aegis cruiser. We’ll have plenty of warning — the Nork rockers are liquid-fueled.

    The point of the exercise is to put the fear of Allah into Iran which is everything we fear about NK, but squared.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  106. Not that Obama will do squat, but whatever

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  107. It is also instructive to watch Obama back off on a settled plan because he’s got concerns — concerns that were no doubt discussed at length by the people who settled on the plan.

    Obama’s the kind of guy who thinks that he thinks of everything first.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  108. The sadly realistic Dana wrote:

    I find it difficult to argue with success, and the North Korean governors and the Iranian chief mullahs have been very successful in retaining power, despite having made their countries worse for their people than before.

    And that would apply to Barack Hussein Obama as well.

    The Dana who sees the connection (3e4784)

  109. #108 Agreed.

    Kevin P. (1df29c)

  110. One possibility is for the US and China to make a deal to split North Korea, if NK refuses to turn over its nukes. China gets some, and South Korea gets the rest.

    Not Wayne Lapierre (228f86)

  111. Comment by The Dana who sees the connection (3e4784) — 4/4/2013 @ 1:41 pm

    Right. This goes back to your earlier point about how fat boy has managed to inherit the family dynasty at such a young age. Never underestimate the power of the Cult of Personality. Our experience in 2008 and 2012 should drive that point home to us. What North Korea could really use is a robust religious awakening — I don’t care if it is Christian, Buddhist, Jewish, Muslim (well, OK, I would prefer that it not be Muslim) — so that North Koreans could start to grasp the concept that Dear Leader (and here I am talking about theirs, not ours) is not the be-all end-all of universal existence.

    JVW (4826a9)

  112. How many times do the NORKs have to do **** like attack the blue house or attack the Pueblo or send a out a suicide submarine crew? I could go on.

    I mean, the Japanese had to build entire classes of boats because the NORKs just won’t cut the crap out.

    http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/japan/hayabusa.htm

    After the 1999 “suspicious ship off the coast of Noto Peninsula incident” occurred, the lesson was the need for speedy craft, leading to the revised construction plan in which high-speed missile boat. At the same time, the Coast Guard caused the special high-speed patrol boat “Tsurugi” type to be commissioned. The proplusion is three gas turbine-water jets which span almost the full width of the rear hull. This missile boat is small because the type of ship, marine weather conditions in the sea off Japan, based on the performance of this type is in the form of large-scale as well. It is characterized by stealth considerations with the sharp angles. As the first defense ship, OTO Breda 76 mm rapid-fire gun type of stealth shield have been adopted. The bridge is a two-tiered structure, inside the composite material using a flame retardant are erected in bulletproof plate. It carries a 6.3 m complex work-boat (10 persons) for special security officers also used to inspect for dealing with suspicious ships and other vessels.

    Those “special security officers” are a creation of the the NORKs, too, in a major way. Who was operating that “suspicious ship.” I don’t know anyone including the entire United States Marine Corps who burns through as much ammo in a fiscal year as those Japanese Special Boarding Teams. Except maybe the Japan Coast Guard’s Special Security Teams which guard the nuclear fuel shipments aboard the Shikishima.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shikishima_%28PLH_31%29

    Just saying. I don’t want these people thinking they need to go nuclear. Which they will if they think we’re getting weak kneed over the NORKs.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  113. One possibility is for the US and China to make a deal to split North Korea, if NK refuses to turn over its nukes. China gets some, and South Korea gets the rest.

    China would no doubt attempt to grab the oil & mineral deposits and forest land, while leaving the crappy farms to the South Koreans.

    JVW (4826a9)

  114. China wants no part of the gulag that is North Korea and they don’t want South Korea to be actually bordering them.

    SPQR (768505)

  115. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/suicide-crew-found-in-north-korean-sub-1167574.html

    AFTER THREE days of suspense, the latest tense episode on the Korean peninsula came to a grisly end yesterday when the bodies of dead sailors were removed from a stricken North Korean submarine.

    The Yugo-class midget sub had been towed to the South Korean part of Tonghae after it became tangled in fishing nets on Monday while apparently engaged on an espionage mission. On Wednesday it sank as South Korean naval ships tried to haul it alongside the dock for inspection. After being floated yesterday, television news in the South reported that an unspecified number of bodies had been found in the hull.

    They were found lying in just 30 inches of water, according to Korea Broadcasting System, suggesting that they may have asphyxiated or committed suicide rather than drowned. North Korean troops are trained to commit suicide rather than allow themselves to be captured. When 26 sailors and commandos were stranded in a similar incident in 1996, most of them were shot by one of their own officers.

    I actually don’t think they’re very good. But they mean it. And not being very good just makes them more dangerous.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  116. 116. China wants no part of the gulag that is North Korea and they don’t want South Korea to be actually bordering them.

    Comment by SPQR (768505) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:08 pm

    It’s a sticky situation. A unified Korea means all those missiles are that much closer to Japan.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  117. The Dana who sees the connection@110:

    And that would apply to Barack Hussein Obama as well.

    Oh please!

    Perry (304b25)

  118. Dana

    I hope your daughter isnt posted there or in a group that could head there.

    SPQR

    China wants North Korea badly, they want vietnamand other territories.

    E.PWJ (f44e22)

  119. R.I.P. Roger Ebert

    Icy (6d6964)

  120. 115. One possibility is for the US and China to make a deal to split North Korea, if NK refuses to turn over its nukes. China gets some, and South Korea gets the rest.

    China would no doubt attempt to grab the oil & mineral deposits and forest land, while leaving the crappy farms to the South Koreans.

    Comment by JVW (4826a9) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:06 pm

    Those crappy farms wouldn’t be so crappy if the South Koreans took them over.

    Actually, they wouldn’t be so crappy if the Kim family would just die already.

    http://kimjongillookingatthings.tumblr.com/

    “Hey, let me give you personal on-the-spot instruction in how to be a doctor or make Soju or grow corn or raise pigs or how to fish” says the dictator.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  121. 120. China wants North Korea badly, they want vietnamand other territories.

    Comment by E.PWJ (f44e22) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:20 pm

    I don’t believe they actually want Vietnam. They just want Vietnam to sit down and shut up while they take the Spratly Islands.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  122. Steve

    Oh they want it and badly – they want Japan, the philippines as well most of Siberia

    E.PWJ (f44e22)

  123. They don’t want the Philippines. They don’t want Japan.

    They don’t want the people.

    They want to claim the ocean areas around them.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  124. The South China Sea and the East China Sea is what they want.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  125. As long as everybody leaves the village of Sinanju alone I’m cool and they can do whatever they want.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  126. 127. As long as everybody leaves the village of Sinanju alone I’m cool and they can do whatever they want.

    Comment by daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:56 pm

    What’s in Sinanju?

    Steve57 (be3310)

  127. i bet keanu reeves knows

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  128. By the way, you can buy a Corvette in South Korea now.

    http://www.autoblog.com/2012/05/01/chevy-corvette-headed-to-south-korea/

    The 430-horsepower Coupe model goes on sale May 4 for 86.4 million South Korean won ($76,528 U.S.). While the anti-tariff provisions of the free-trade agreement haven’t come into force yet, the surcharge is actually down to things like shipping and exchange rates. The Corvette will join eight other Chevy models on sale on the Asian peninsula.

    I really think the NORKs have no idea who they’re dealing with.

    http://l2.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/cK.b_O0fddYlM8p1AR05IQ–/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9aW5zZXQ7aD02MTI7cT04NTt3PTQwOA–/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/Reuters/2013-04-02T213721Z_1384057762_TM4E9421CUE01_RTRMADP_3_KOREA-NORTH-USA.JPG

    Steve57 (be3310)

  129. Steve57 – Don’t ask.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  130. People who need to know know.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  131. with corvette you get egg roll

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  132. I’m cool with it, daley.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  133. Comment by The Dana who will not underestimate our enemies (3e4784) — 4/4/2013 @ 12:39 pm

    I don’t think that the upper-levels of either of those societies would be constrained by the theories of Mutual Assured Destruction:
    In the case of NoKor, they have very little to destroy;
    In Iran, Armegeddon is a feature, not something to be avoided.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  134. Comment by Steve57 (be3310) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:13 pm

    That would really depend under what capitol they were unified.
    I doubt if Japan would feel threatened by a unified Korea led by Seoul.

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  135. EPWJ wrote:

    Dana

    I hope your daughter isnt posted there or in a group that could head there.

    Possibility of a three week mission in August, but not a sure thing.

    But I see the probability of a shooting war as very low. Suicide bombers are the low-ranking fighters, while the higher ups send them on their missions; starting a shooting war would virtually be suicide for Kim Jong-un.

    My guess is that there might be a few more “provocations,” possibly involving shelling of the disputed islands, or some naval shouldering a bit outside of NK territorial waters, so that His Rotundity can show the world how tough he is, in standing up to the big, bad United States, but the odds that NK starts shelling the Republic of Korea or sends troops across the border seems almost vanishingly small.

    The Army-daddy Dana (af9ec3)

  136. 136. Comment by Steve57 (be3310) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:13 pm

    That would really depend under what capitol they were unified.
    I doubt if Japan would feel threatened by a unified Korea led by Seoul.

    Comment by askeptic (b8ab92) — 4/4/2013 @ 3:28 pm

    I’m not so sure. The point got driven home to me while having lunch on what I believe was the sister ship to the Cheonan.

    After the Captain first apologized for “not having the special food for foreigners” the conversation then turned to the situation in the region.

    The only reason I was there at all was the NORKs were all hot and bothered over something.

    So we discuss the NORKs. The ROKs were very dispassionate about the whole deal. Then I mentioned I had just traveled through Japan.

    THAT got them worked up. The XO looks at me and says “We’re glad you Americans are in Japan. Because we have to watch those ****ers. You. Us. And the Chinese.”

    I got the distinct impression that the “us” which included the Yanks and the Chinese also included the NORKs against the “them” which were the Japanese.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  137. askeptic wrote:

    I don’t think that the upper-levels of either of those societies would be constrained by the theories of Mutual Assured Destruction:
    In the case of NoKor, they have very little to destroy;

    The bulk of the population have very little to destroy, but the elites are, well, the elites. They have what passes for wealth, and they certainly have power, within their own framework, and little prospect of being nearly as prosperous in any other setting, absent a complete military victory and conquest of South Korea.

    In Iran, Armegeddon is a feature, not something to be avoided.

    Yet, amazingly, they do avoid it. Everyone wants to get to heaven, but the vast majority want to put the trip off for a while longer.

    It’s one thing to encourage others to be suicide attackers, and quite something else to do it yourself; the mullahs don’t seem to be volunteering for the field work.

    The sober realist Dana (af9ec3)

  138. Dana and I are in complete accord on this matter.

    Leviticus (17b7a5)

  139. Dana, they really don’t know. They’ve got an entire generation of (I used the wrong term earlier) “petty generals” who not only grew up on the propaganda but they believe it.

    That’s one of the drawbacks of cutting yourself off from outside information.

    It would be suicide for them to try. But the danger is they aren’t informed enough to know just how suicidal it would be.

    There’s going to be a lot of pressure from the petty generals to act. The NORK leadership can’t crack down on them; they’re toeing the party line. They’re true believers. They are exactly who the NORKs wanted them to be.

    Sometimes I think the North’s provocations are just intended to let off some of that steam. But when they do, it reinforces the idea in some minds that they could head south and take us. Which leads to more steam to let off. It’s a vicious cycle.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  140. How firmly is Kim Jong Un in control, is the question.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  141. All that Iran needs to get an atomic bomb is for a plane to fly unintercepted from North Korea to Iran.

    The People’s Liberation Army of China seems to be all for it, although other parts of the Chinese government may be more reluctant. So China has a fall back position.

    All indications are that if North Korea starts a war, they will just let it go and not fight. They mobilized along the border probably only to prevent the U.S. or South Korea from crossing the Yalu River.

    China may just want to let Kim Jong Un escape with his life and with no retaliation for dropping the bomb – probably on Guam, which is the only U.S. territory he can reach. That will add credibilioty to Chinas nuclear weapons.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  142. Kim Jung Un –a man who was aboe to be convinced (by somebody in his inner circle) that he had been voted “sexiest man alive” by the American public (well yeah, in The Onion) is not “in control” and does not have a grasp of reality. Just sayin”..

    elissa (3b31fc)

  143. *able*

    elissa (3b31fc)

  144. He has a basic sense of wanting to keep his sexy ass alive for another year, I’d wager.

    Leviticus (17b7a5)

  145. “the fairly certain knowledge that one day we will all kill each other.” Doubt it. Maybe most of us, but not all of us.

    External phenomena are another matter: asteroid strike, gamma ray burst, stellar detonation, black-hole encounter, space-alien attack; one of those might do the trick.

    gp (0c542c)

  146. Not grasp of reality – that may be one reason South Koprea is so concerned. But he may actually have a better grasp of reality than we think. He seems to have discounted North Korea’s regular armed forces. he knows that is nothing, and at the slightest unexpected setback, the whole army will collapse like a pricked balloon.

    he’s got something up his sleeve, and he seems to be relying only on nuclear weapons for whatever it is. He may be planning something in conjunction with Iran. He’s trying very hard to get us uses to the idea of North Korea dropping an atomic bomb somewhere (probably with the idea this will lessen the chances of any automatic response.)

    He may think maybe he’ll use just one and then STOP and ask for a ceasefire..

    Still, to imagine he can come out ahead is taking a greater chance than he thinks.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  147. Wsell, the thing is, the People Liberation Army may be in control – and more in control of North Korea than of China.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  148. Iran’s selling its oil to China, Iran’s buying stuff from the Norks.

    Iran has its own window of opportunity. In Syria and Lebanon.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  149. 146. He has a basic sense of wanting to keep his sexy ass alive for another year, I’d wager.

    Comment by Leviticus (17b7a5) — 4/4/2013 @ 4:15 pm

    Have you ever dealt with any North Koreans? The whole world isn’t a college campus, you know.

    http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/10/18/kim_jong_ils_grandson_talks_school_and_libya_in_tv_interview

    This kind of worldliness is in short supply in North Korea.

    Kim Jong Un no doubt wants to, after hosting Dennis Rodman, wants to live to his next b’day and have Britney Spears perform.

    http://www.hot97.com/black-rican-jew/2013/03/12/britney-spears-caught-going-commando-to-her-sons-soccer-game-photo

    That’s not the only concern here. I’ve talked to NORK defectors. Do you realize how much of what the modern world has come up with since the 1980s is complete news to them? Like developments in air defense systems?

    Steve57 (be3310)

  150. 148. He seems to have discounted North Korea’s regular armed forces. he knows that is nothing, and at the slightest unexpected setback, the whole army will collapse like a pricked balloon.

    Maybe he knows that. Lots of NORKs don’t.

    …Still, to imagine he can come out ahead is taking a greater chance than he thinks.

    Comment by Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 4/4/2013 @ 4:18 pm

    He’s got to do something of a tightwire act.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  151. Relax with wisdom like this, we have nothing to fear, (it’s from the White house website, so they didn’t notice anything wrong with it)

    How do you rebuild some trust? And I told the story about two conversations I had. The first conversation was when Michelle came back from doing some campaigning out in rural Iowa. And we were sitting at dinner, and she had been to like a big county, a lot of driving out there, a lot of farmland. And she said, if I was living out in a farm in Iowa, I’d probably want a gun, too. If somebody just drives up into your driveway and you’re not home — you don’t know who these people are and you don’t know how long it’s going to take for the sheriffs to respond. I can see why you’d want some guns for protection.

    narciso (3fec35)

  152. 126.As long as everybody leaves the village of Sinanju alone I’m cool and they can do whatever they want.

    Comment by daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 4/4/2013 @ 2:56 pm

    I kept on reading the stuff after Sapir left but quit when Murphy did too and contract writers took over? Is Chiun still alive? Is Remo the new Master? What happened to the Dutchman and Mr. Gordons? Is Rad Rex in a same sex marriage now?

    nk (d4662f)

  153. nk – I read from the start but stopped probably 10 years ago so I have no idea of current status.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  154. Steve57…good comments. In the 80s, I remember all the folks on the Left saying that the old Soviets would never do anything warlike, because “they love their children.” Remember the silly Sting song about that?

    http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/sting/russians.html

    Which I don’t understand. The old Soviets sacrificed quite a bit during the Cold War, and killed an awful lot of people. Including children.

    So I am thinking this is a common problem: suspecting that other people think just as you do. That might be true in many cases. For North Korea, not such.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  155. “Have you ever dealt with any North Koreans? The whole world isn’t a college campus, you know.”

    – Steve57

    No. I did know a Chinese kid once, though.

    And thanks for reminding me, Marco Polo.

    Leviticus (17b7a5)

  156. How long will his rule stay secure?

    Comment by The Dana who looks at the evidence (3e4784) — 4/4/2013 @ 12:45 pm

    Probably as long as he can hold off the military commanders, the only other power in North Korea. This may explain why he’s rushed to a war footing so soon after he took power, much like his father did.

    North Korean artillery could kill many thousands of people in minutes, including US Army near North Korea. However, it is extremely difficult to move large numbers of troops in this part of the world, except during the winter when the rice paddies freeze. The Koreas are so hilly that the region is basically a series of choke points between the hills, and heavy vehicles cannot travel when the roads are disabled (which they easily would be with large concrete tank traps next to the highways).

    Because it is March, nearing monsoon season, I do not think North Korea is planning any kind of invasion. But I certainly wouldn’t put some kind of awful attack past them.

    It is unfortunate we let this go as far as it’s gotten already. But striking North Korea now would probably lead to the deaths of many innocent people. It’s a tough call at this point. The real screw up happened during the Clinton administration.

    Dustin (6e7388)

  157. his rule will stay secure until he discovers girls or warcraft probably

    happyfeet (c60db2)

  158. Thanks for the logistics. The new Axis Alliance is playing us. Lebanese Shia President resigned last week. Sunnis are in danger of winning in Syria. Missiles are being launched from Gaza and Israel is returning fire and launching sorties into Syria.

    Russia had a 30 vessel exercise in the Black Sea last week.

    US is pulled a carrier group from the Persian gulf.

    On your marks,..

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  159. He went to a swiss private school, he probably already knows both,

    narciso (3fec35)

  160. It’s a jungle out there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8-NkHYzGPQ (No, not the Monk theme)

    nk from Chicago (d4662f)

  161. Mikati is actually Sunni, this time he almost last two years, instead of the three months last time.

    narciso (3fec35)

  162. 164. Yeah I know, but held the Shia sceptre.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  163. An interesting detail, all of the brothers of one of the Iranian presidential candidates, Larijani were born in Iraq.

    narciso (3fec35)

  164. Iran has a number of worries itself:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/01/iran-sanctions-inflation_n_2990732.html

    Once the shooting starts look for China to move in the South China Sea, and keep an eye out for a Paki or Indian sucker punch. Turkey is salivating at its prospects.

    gary gulrud (dd7d4e)

  165. 160. Because it is March, nearing monsoon season, I do not think North Korea is planning any kind of invasion. But I certainly wouldn’t put some kind of awful attack past them.

    Monsoon season works better for them. Do you expect them to wait for good flying weather for us?

    I don’t know when the flood the rice paddies in the south, but if a less mechanized force is going to take on a more mechanized force (that would be us) it’s better to chance it when the whole bloody country is a mud bog then when the ground is frozen hard and you can get good traction.

    They attacked in June 1950, remember?

    It’s a tough call at this point. The real screw up happened during the Clinton administration.

    Comment by Dustin (6e7388) — 4/4/2013 @ 6:19 pm

    No truer words, Dustin.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  166. 159. And thanks for reminding me, Marco Polo.

    Comment by Leviticus (17b7a5) — 4/4/2013 @ 5:46 pm

    That’s what I’m here for. You’re welcome.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  167. – I was reminded that NK has pushed the envelope in the past with limited attacks that killed people- sinking a ship and shelling an island for example.
    – I’ve read where many in S. Korea are frustrated at letting these things occur without some response.
    – So perhaps if the NK’s do a limited provocation like in the past, and not a major act of war, they may still provoke a retaliatory strike from SK.
    – And who knows what would transpire after that.
    – officials in NK can pull a PR victory only as long as nothing blows up in NK.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  168. Monsoon season works better for them. Do you expect them to wait for good flying weather for us?

    I disagree for these reasons:

    If they were serious about actually invading (rather than either some kind of limited strike or just saber rattling), they wouldn’t have much of a choice but to wait until November-February or so.

    There is only one way for a North Korean invasion to succeed: it has to be very fast because supplies will be exhausted very quickly. They would have to combine a ruthless and tremendous artillery barrage (that would wipe out tens of thousands at a minimum) with a large and mechanized invasion.

    You are incorrect about your calculation for American armor. We would be defending South Korea rather than moving north. We would be using air assets and our considerable artillery assets in Tongduchon and Uijonbiu for counter-artillery (firing at radar determined artillery positions in North Korea to blunt their assault). They would be trying to move their artillery around as much as possible to limit counter artillery… which is easier in the winter.

    We would need approximately four air strikes for every artillery position in North Korea to eliminate their firepower. This will be difficult given North Korea’s relatively modern air defense and huge numbers of anti aircraft weapons like guns and rockets.

    During monsoon season, or even just when winter is over, North Korea’s remaining invasion force would be its so called “special forces”, which is a large number of personnel who would probably rely on chemical or biological warfare, and many would travel by submarine. That’s scary, but it’s not enough.

    The North Koreans cannot win unless they can get huge numbers of armor to the Han river and hold that ground. That is not possible except in the winter.

    But then, do any of us really think the North Korean leadership are aiming to take over South Korea? They are threatening to use nukes and missiles. They are essentially blackmailing us because this has worked in the past. The North Koreans don’t want to rule over the bright and well informed South Korean people. They want an ignorant populous as they have now… they just want some money too.

    Dustin (6e7388)

  169. I am wondering how popular that Gangham style ass is nowadays, as Korean youth are getting a lesson in why Korean adults largely appreciate Americans.

    I was stationed in Korea… closer to North Korea than Seoul… and anyone older than a teenager was always clearly appreciative of our presence there.

    Dustin (6e7388)

  170. The Third Book of Moses wrote:

    Dana and I are in complete accord on this matter.

    Now that worries me!

    The concerned Dana (3e4784)

  171. Dustin, I shouldn’t have brought up armor. I was relaying an opinion that was given to me by some Army and Marine officers. But I don’t know enough about the subject to offer an informed independent opinion of my own.

    But I will tell you the weather is better for conducting flight operations on the Korean peninsula in winter. And that favors us. And the NORKs know that.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  172. I thought having a Nobel Peace Prize winner as US president and occupant of the White House would have totally calmed the international waters. That the warmth, magnificence, and humanitarian beauty of Obama would have made the world ashamed to be less than loving and cordial to America, and to one another.

    Oops. I guess not.

    Mark (e5fd6c)

  173. 173. I was stationed in Korea… closer to North Korea than Seoul… and anyone older than a teenager was always clearly appreciative of our presence there.

    Comment by Dustin (6e7388) — 4/4/2013 @ 7:20 pm

    Second ID?

    Steve57 (be3310)

  174. I do not think North Korea is planning any kind of invasion. But I certainly wouldn’t put some kind of awful attack past them.

    My sense is that the average American — rightly or wrongly — isn’t taking the threats from North Korea as seriously as he or she might otherwise do, or would be doing if the saber rattling were from a less impoverished, dysfunctional, “hermit” type of country. Whether that’s a proper response or not will be answered by the history books of the future.

    Mark (e5fd6c)

  175. Dustin wrote:

    How long will his rule stay secure?

    Probably as long as he can hold off the military commanders, the only other power in North Korea. This may explain why he’s rushed to a war footing so soon after he took power, much like his father did.

    But what do his military commanders want? The thing that most military commanders want is peace, because they are the ones who have to fight the wars.

    The generals in North Korea have it made: they get food (apparently something of a luxury item in NK), cars, good quarters, the first choices of everything, and respect. Saber rattling is good for them, because they get to strut and show off, but actual war, not so great. Some would get killed, and all would see their lifestyles seriously degraded. Even if they fought a war and won, clearly and unambiguously, all of the glory would go to Kim Jung-un.

    The practical Dana (3e4784)

  176. Chuck Hagel is a silly bimbo I don’t feel comfortable with him and food stamp in charge

    if I may say

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  177. Dana, it’s a serious mistake to try to guess some other person’s intentions.

    What will they do? Who knows. What can they do? That’s the question that needs to be answered.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  178. Well the Dennis Rodman episode, I know, shows how profoundly unserious we are.

    narciso (3fec35)

  179. Steve, we do both: we build to defend against what they can do, because we have to be prepared, but we should make policy based on our most reasonable assessment of what they will do.

    We won’t always get it right, but, then again, our assessment of what they can do is also not always right.

    The very practical Dana (3e4784)

  180. Second ID?

    Comment by Steve57 (be3310)

    Second to none! But that was a long time ago.

    The generals in North Korea have it made: they get food (apparently something of a luxury item in NK), cars, good quarters, the first choices of everything, and respect. Saber rattling is good for them, because they get to strut and show off, but actual war, not so great.

    True.

    But why should they listen to their bloated leader? They could just take over… unless leaders quickly consolidate power with a crisis like an imminent war, so that anyone who isn’t extremely loyal isn’t just denigrating a useless dynastic leader, but is actually a potential problem in the coming war that isn’t really coming.

    Or something. Who knows? All I know is that the world has become a more desperate and unpredictable and less peaceful place in the last several years.

    Dustin (6e7388)

  181. Dennis Rodman is a profoundly stupid person I can’t even watch him on the teevee I’d rather watch Kirk Cameron

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  182. ok that was a lie

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  183. 184. All I know is that the world has become a more desperate and unpredictable and less peaceful place in the last several years.

    Comment by Dustin (6e7388) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:27 pm

    World War One says the world has been pretty desperate and unpredictable and not at all peaceful for a quite a while.

    Which is the scenario I’m concerned about. Things can get out of hand very quickly. Whatever Kim Jong Un’s or his top generals’ intentions.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  184. omg do NOT lose any sleep over this

    the cable news sluts are just desperate cause nobody wants to hear them pimp the dead newtown babies anymore

    some damn idiot was on the CNN this morning talking about cursed cruise ships

    stupid it propaganda slut moron

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  185. it was supposed to be “idiot” I think the wireless keyboard must be hungry for some new batteries

    brb

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  186. China wants no part of the gulag that is North Korea and they don’t want South Korea to be actually bordering them.

    Actually, now that SK is rich and fat, China wouldn’t mind so much — it would get the US out of Korea entirely and it’s not like SK is going to invade China, quite the contrary.

    Besides, they’ll be too busy salvaging what’s left of the NK people. East Germany squared.

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  187. Well the Dennis Rodman episode, I know, shows how profoundly unserious we are.

    I thought Lurch was Secretary of State. Did I miss something?

    Kevin M (bf8ad7)

  188. We’re a gaggle of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community. Your site offered us with useful info to work on. You’ve done a formidable task and our entire community can be grateful to you.

    electric bike (0f3bde)

  189. Kevin wrote:

    Well the Dennis Rodman episode, I know, shows how profoundly unserious we are.

    I thought Lurch was Secretary of State. Did I miss something?

    Not really; that’s a distinction without a difference.

    The snarky Dana (3e4784)

  190. maybe the NK’s decided that after going 2 for 22 that Obama doesn’t have game like Rodman claimed after all

    no that wasn’t at all serious nor meant to be a serious criticism, even the best can have an off day

    and I have no idea how Rodman ended up going to NK, i can’t see anybody sending him as a representative of the US, unless he has been under deep cover as a wildly eccentric basketball player.
    I can’t see anyone sending me, either. I can’t rebound but I also let my wife wear the dress when we were married, so I figure that makes us about equal on suitability to be a US rep.
    just saying.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  191. But maybe I’m a bigot for thinking it strange for a man to wear a wedding dress. I didn’t say it was wrong, just strange.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  192. Hey, dude got to copulate with Carmen Electra; might have been worth wearing the dress. 🙂

    The envious Dana (3e4784)

  193. C’mon. Would we even still be talking about Dennis Rodman and would George Stuffleopolus have just had him on a Sunday morning talk show to discuss lil Mr Kim Un had Dennis not been such an outrageous publicity hound even in his playing days? The man may have had a penchant for wearing silly outfits and trash talking— and he is clearly not much good at international diplomacy– but he sure knows how to appear to stay “relevant” and in the public eye. (Kind of not all that different from Lurch when you think about it.)

    elissa (3e20bd)

  194. But maybe I’m a bigot for thinking it strange for a man to wear a wedding dress.

    Speaking of which, and since that thread on SSM is now pretty much tapped out, and the “leader of the free world” now has to deal with NK, and since admittedly a famous warrior like Alexander the Great was reportedly “that way,” and word-on-the-grapevine about Obama having some vested interest in supporting the idea of SSM, this tidbit (a Freudian slip, perhaps?) is sort of another piece of the puzzle:

    cbsnews.com: During an interview with Burlington, Vt. CBS affiliate WCAX, first lady Michelle Obama described herself as a “busy single mother” before quickly correcting herself, explaining, “Sometimes when you’ve got the husband who’s president, it can feel a little single, but he’s there.”

    ^ Even more so when their recent vacation occurred separately, with the hubby going to Florida with his body man, and the missus going to Colorado with the kids.

    Mark (e5fd6c)

  195. Dennis Rodman is a profoundly stupid person I can’t even watch him on the teevee I’d rather watch Kirk Cameron

    Comment by happyfeet (8ce051) — 4/4/2013 @ 8:32 pm

    Gotta get in your unnecessary digs towards religion any chance you can get, right? Jerk.

    NJRob (fe68e7)

  196. We should do whatever it takes to reassure S Korea that we’ve got their back, and to make sure we are ready to respond, and no more.

    But if they take offensive action agains the South, we should immediately take out their leadership, secure their WMDs, and turn the place over to the South.

    Which may drag into a ground war we can’t afford due to our current World War level debt, in which case we abandon everyone in Asia so we can continute to pay for Ms. Fluke’s birth control.

    Amphipolis (d3e04f)

  197. Comment by Jcw46 (0af03c) — 4/4/2013 @ 7:49 am

    Too bad the Big Rotten Apple isn’t within range. </I./

    Neither, of course, are any of Kim Jong Tres other targets, even Guam.

    He moves a missile to the east coast of North Korea, but even moving it to the point farthest east wouldn't help: the misisle he seems to be using is beleived to have a range of 1,900 miles and Guam is 2,200 miles away, menaing if the evaluations by the U.S. military is correct, his atomic bomb carrying missile will fall into the Pacific Ocean. It might not even explode, because I don't think that has been tested.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  198. Comment by gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 4/4/2013 @ 6:34 pm

    The new Axis Alliance is playing us.

    That’s a real possibility. Kim Jong Un may not be planning anything at all, except to draw away U.S. forces from the Persian Gulf, which, if that’s the case, is succeeding.

    US is pulled a carrier group from the Persian gulf.

    President Obama and his team at the Department of Defense apparently decided back around February that nothing’s going to happen in the Persian gulf until at least the fall, so to save money they didn’t send one aircraft carrier.

    The U.S. I read had 2 permanently undeployed Star Wars missile systems.

    I don’t know if that’s two besides the one that is now being deployed to Guam or includes it.

    Anyway there are two spares. They are kept in resercve to be set up some place if needed.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  199. Amphipolis wrote:

    We should do whatever it takes to reassure S Korea that we’ve got their back, and to make sure we are ready to respond, and no more.

    Alas! We lost that opportunity last November 6th.

    The sadly realistic Dana (3e4784)

  200. SF: He seems to have discounted North Korea’s regular armed forces. he knows that is nothing, and at the slightest unexpected setback, the whole army will collapse like a pricked balloon.

    Comment by Steve57 (be3310) — 4/4/2013 @ 4:54 pm

    Maybe he knows that. Lots of NORKs don’t.

    Yes. He may also think that a lot of people don’t know how impossible some of his threats are. But I read something that indicated he was not for the army getting built up more or something, so I think he realizes it doesn’t count.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  201. SF: Still, to imagine he can come out ahead is taking a greater chance than he thinks.

    He’s got to do something of a tightwire act.

    You wonder what he’s trying to do.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5gpuimXzka5inwGnL0c9vZsbQ54fw?docId=CNG.4eb43e27607cb9d4be6b952b88ddefeb.01

    N. Korea approves nuclear strike on United States

    By Jung Ha-Won (AFP) – 1 day ago

    SEOUL — North Korea dramatically escalated its warlike rhetoric on Thursday, warning that it had authorised plans for nuclear strikes on targets in the United States.

    “The moment of explosion is approaching fast,” the North Korean military said, warning that war could break out “today or tomorrow”….

    ….In a statement published by the state KCNA news agency, the Korean People’s Army general staff warned Washington that US threats would be “smashed by… cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means”.

    “The merciless operation of our revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified,” the statement said….

    Now what do you make out of all of that? These cutting edge missiles do not exist.

    Of course he could get something from China.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  202. In the event of a conflict, even with all of the propaganda, the majority of the people in NK must know, or at least strongly suspect, that life elsewhere must be better than what they routinely experience, and any change in leadership almost has to be an improvement.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  203. There are now radio broadcast and things getting through.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  204. Most important, the army knows.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  205. MD in Philly, people who live in such total unceasing propaganda “know” that it is propaganda, but it seeps into their entire self so much that they just think its exaggerated but mostly true.

    SPQR (768505)

  206. Indeed they do MD in Philly. Right now I have two students from Seoul staying at my home and going to school here. (My wife is Korean and we speak Korean around the house). They are part of an exchange with the local Willow Grove, PA Presbyterian church and both of these girls are quite anxious about what is going on in Korea.

    My wife has family there and we also have businesses there. Everybody is on pins and needles around here. This little commie pimp needs to be shut down before he starts a damn world war.

    Hoagie (3259ab)

  207. Comment by SPQR (768505) — 4/5/2013 @ 9:47 am

    I imagine that is true, but in the case of NK things are so bad. America and even the rest of the Soviet Union may have believed the propaganda, but no one in the Ukraine did. I think the routine state of affairs in NK isn’t a whole lot better.

    Comment by Hoagie (3259ab) — 4/5/2013 @ 9:48 Warning! Warning! Anonymity alert!!
    Our youngest goes to a Christian school outside of Philly that has a couple of students from Korea in it. Might well be the same one, though there are a lot of Koreans and Presbyterians both in the area.

    Some years ago I spoke to an immigrant from SK during a period when the North threatened to pull out of the armistice. His view was that the South was concerned, and would not be surprisd if conflict resumed at some point, but since the North seemed to always be posturing there was a bit of “Crying wolf” about it too. They had a mix of knowing the threat was real, but at the same time had to live life knowing that tomorrow would probably be another normal day.
    But that was under the last leader. I am sure things are especially tense since there is a new ruler with little track record.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  208. At least we don’t currently (that I know of) have any of our own people saying that we want to invade NK to take over their farms or fishing waters or nuclear plants or something, like we needed to contend with in Iraq.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  209. I don’t agree with everything this guy has to say but he does make some good points.

    http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/01/opinion/haggard-north-korea/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

    “Opinion: Kim Jong Un is not crazy”

    There is a larger game at work here that probably centers on the difficult-to-read domestic politics of North Korea. It is by no means assured that Kim Jong Un has fully consolidated his authority.

    Therein lies the danger.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  210. Remember eleven years ago, when Saddam Hussein was being pushed to prove he didn’t have WMD, and pretty much did everything he could to make it look like he had successfully kept WMD stockpiles from the ejected inspectors, when in fact he had none, and all of his old stuff was gone? That policy didn’t work out particularly well for him.

    And that makes the fact that the Norks are proclaiming stuff like saying they’ll burn down Washington with “cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means,” unless a cargo container is included in that description, rather foolish. The problem is that this tactic has already worked for them in the past, when we had our previous Democratic president, and there’s no particular reason to think that our current President will do any better. Hell, he just had Lurch give President Morsi $250 million!

    Saddam Hussein didn’t have much logical reason to behave as he did, other than to look tough; Kim Jung-un might actually have a reason.

    The Dana who remembers (3e4784)

  211. Simon Jester #156 = don’t forget that the Dems are the Projective Party – which is why they spend as much time as they do calling other folk racist, homophobic, sexist, et cetera

    Alasdair (19af85)

  212. The sadly realistic Dana @ 202:

    Amphipolis wrote:

    We should do whatever it takes to reassure S Korea that we’ve got their back, and to make sure we are ready to respond, and no more.

    Alas! We lost that opportunity last November 6th.

    This is the way a sensible President behaves:

    President Barack Obama is leaving it to other U.S. officials to respond publicly to North Korea’s hostile rhetoric, as his administration balances a display of military resolve against the risk that its actions will escalate tensions with dictator Kim Jong Un.

    Even as North Korea threatens to wage nuclear war on the U.S. and South Korea, the White House so far has kept American reaction below the presidential level, with Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Secretary of State John Kerry taking the lead. Obama hasn’t commented in public on the crisis this week, and he declined to answer a question on North Korea shouted by a reporter after an April 2 Oval Office meeting.

    At the same time, the administration has sought to reassure South Korea that the U.S would come to its defense. The U.S. sent B-52 and B-2 bombers to participate in annual U.S.-South Korea military exercises — with the Pentagon announcing the moves even while calling them routine — and deployed two Navy destroyers to the region in gestures to deter a North Korean military provocation.

    There is a valid question whether Dana’s candidate Mitt Romney would have understood how to handle the North Korea threats in a manner as to not escalate the situation while steadfastly stepping up to cover South Korea’s back.

    Oh wait, Dana’s candidate was Governor oops Perry, no relation! 🙂

    PS: Perhaps Hoagie@209 will finally have a kind word for President Obama, other than calling him a commie. What goes around comes around!

    Perry (304b25)

  213. Perry, you are a moron. Obama has done nothing but demonstrate to North Korea that he’s an Empty Suit. That’s why they are making their threats in the first place.

    And its pretty hilarious that you say “steadfastly stepping up” but your own quote says “gestures“.

    Once again, you don’t pay attention to what you quote/link.

    SPQR (768505)

  214. It may be a teensy bit too soon to be patting anybody anywhere on the back for “handling the threats in a manner so as to not escalate the situation”. (Frankly I’d be surprised if many in the administration could even find North Korea on a map. I’d love to see somebody i the press corps ask Carnie to do it.)

    elissa (3e20bd)

  215. SPQR #216 – our Perry is proud of “steadfast gestures” … for him and his ilk, the gesture is important, the reality of little or no consequence …

    Until consequences come to pass, as they will …

    Alasdair (19af85)

  216. You know simple odds, would dictate he would get something right, on occasion,

    narciso (3fec35)

  217. How is letting the Nork’s go aggressively nuclear not an escalation, Perry. Maybe Perry and Madeline Albright can go dance with Kim Jong Il the Younger while Dennis Rodman signs autographs. Dem smart power.

    JD (fe3864)

  218. “There is a larger game at work here that probably centers on the difficult-to-read domestic politics of North Korea. It is by no means assured that Kim Jong Un has fully consolidated his authority.”

    If that’s the case, I would read things as follows:

    There are generals that are afraid of being purged. In North korea being fired dioes not mean being opnensioned off – it could mean being arrested and havcing your family arrested and everybody around you losing everything. This may have happened , just as a matter of course, with Kim Jong Un’s father Kim Jong Il.

    Now if you are North Korean general and afraid of the future, what could you do?

    You could try a coup but this is EXTREMELY RISKY There is no report of any such coup having succeeded in a totalitarian dictatorship, especially not one as bnad as North Korea. There’d be no way to rais ethe subject. People cannot communicate. They wouldn’t trust each other.

    You really need the government to be overthrown from outside.

    But South Korea and the United Sattes don’t seem to be too interested in doing that. People lead a good life. they don’t want anyone killed. they barely know how bad things are. they are afraid.

    How to get them started?

    Let Kim maybe start a war r something close to a war. Not something too bad, or you yourself might get ounished for war crimes.

    Maybe a nuclear armed missile that falls harmlessly into the ocean would do it.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  219. The problem with this theory, is that it hasn’t just started now. But if some Korean generals were trying toi make Kim Jong Un go too far in order to lose a war (because their positions and their lives and the basic quality of the family’s lives are too uncertain if he stays around and there’s no way to mmake a coup) it would be something new. But this isn’t all so new. It’s an exaggeration of what has gone before.

    And there is a theory that China – or people in the People’s Liberation Army of China – would like some country somewhere to attempt to use a nuclear bomb (as long as they can’t be seen to be responsible for it) because maybe they will get away with it, and then China’s nuclear bombs acquire real significance. Since the days of Mao there have been a lot of people in China not really sold on the idea of MAD. They might want to have an experiment to test it out.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  220. South Korea I think has basically said that if North korea threatens Kaesong — any place that size – or maybe that should be starts to harm Kaesong – they will — basically I think it’ll be over for North Korea.

    This may encourage some generals anxious to get rid of Kim Jong Un before he gets rid of them.

    Maybe even China if he has slipped out of Chinese control – but really, who picked him?

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  221. If this is all bluff and bluster, why did the NoKors advise all foreign embassies/legations in Pyongyang to evacuate?
    That’s straight out of Mobilization-101!

    askeptic (b8ab92)

  222. Why are they telling everybody they plan a surprise attack?

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  223. As I said maybe some generals wants to lose a war.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  224. Or Kim thinks that will prevent retaliation.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  225. Sammy, you are confusing yourself again.

    SPQR (768505)

  226. There are generals that are afraid of being purged. In North korea being fired dioes not mean being opnensioned off – it could mean being arrested and havcing your family arrested and everybody around you losing everything. This may have happened , just as a matter of course, with Kim Jong Un’s father Kim Jong Il.

    Sammy, just FYI the current purge has been going on since just after Kim Jong Il was laid to rest.

    http://www.nodeju.com/3080/n-korea-executes-top-official-for-drinking.html

    llegedly, top official Kim Chol was shot to death by an execution squad in January for having ‘fun’ during the national mourning of N. Korea’s former leader Kim Jong Il.

    …Other dignitaries have also been either arrested or convicted since beginning this year. It is believed that the not yet 30 years old Kim Jong Un is holding a sort of ‘cleaning’ process to secure his position.

    Reportedly 12 top officials have been removed from their positions. Each one was accused of drinking or being involved in a sex scandal.

    South Korea has been reporting several executions of top officials in North Korea since Kim Jong Un came to power.

    This is an article about Iran, but there are general lessons that apply to the current situation in Korea.

    http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2013/04/why-western-leaders-are-ignorant-about.html

    An op-ed piece by former UK foreign affairs secretary Jack Straw reveals on how high-level Western statesmen think about international affairs and the Middle East.

    Before beginning I want to make clear that my problem with Straw’s analysis is not his opposition to a military attack on Iran. Actually, I agree with him on this point. The problem is his reasoning on the framework around that point.

    I don’t know if he is responsible for the title of the article in the Daily Telegraph but it does reflect the dangerous worldview of Western leaders. It is, “Even if Iran gets the Bomb, it won’t be worth going to war.” This is rather open-ended. The title might better have been: Going to War is Not the Best Response to Iran’s Nuclear Weapons’ Drive.

    The trouble with the actual title is it basically implies that no matter what Iran does once it gets the bomb it won’t be worth the West going to war. And that is really what Straw is saying.

    …Yet this is a common theme of contemporary Western diplomacy–including Obama’s behavior toward radical Islamism generally–assure your actual or potential foe that you won’t do anything nasty to them and then expect them to moderate. This isn’t how Middle East thinking or politics works.

    …Again, I agree with Straw that actually attacking Iran is not a good idea but the article is riddled with remarkably bad assumptions. These include: abandon your own leverage; put a priority on not offending your enemies; believe that the stronger you are the worse the situation is; blame yourselves for the enmity of extremists and fanatics; risk Israel’s existence on your wishful thinking; make your foreign policy dependent on UN decisions; view foreign policy as a means of paying reparations; and totally misunderstand the politics of other countries.

    Here’s the Los Angeles Times making all the same arguments in a September 2009 editorial. Straw, like other leaders, simply ignore experience in favor of the ideas bouncing around in their heads.

    …What Gould understands and Straw doesn’t understand is that having power and leverage is a good thing. The whole guilt-ridden, apology-oriented approach to international relations taken by the Obama Administration and many in Europe (and also generally taught in Western universities) doesn’t work. It only convinces your foes that you are weak and your friends that you are unreliable.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  227. Perry wrote:

    There is a valid question whether Dana’s candidate Mitt Romney would have understood how to handle the North Korea threats in a manner as to not escalate the situation while steadfastly stepping up to cover South Korea’s back.

    This is where you have totally missed it. I have said, believe it or not:

    To his credit, President Obama has not broken down and given the DPRK any sort of reward for their bellicose bluster. The Administration is, wisely, seeing the bluster for what it is: just words.

    However, I do not see our President as demonstrating any history of sticking to wise policies, even when he stumbles upon them, or supporting allies when times get tough; there’s a reason that there are so man people under the Obama bus.

    How would Mitt Romney have handled the situation? We can’t know, since he never got the chance, but he is both smarter and wiser that President Obama, so the odds are that he’d have done well.

    The sober realist Dana (af9ec3)

  228. World War One says the world has been pretty desperate and unpredictable and not at all peaceful for a quite a while.

    Which is the scenario I’m concerned about. Things can get out of hand very quickly. Whatever Kim Jong Un’s or his top generals’ intentions.

    Comment by Steve57 (be3310) — 4/4/2013

    Good point. I feel like we’ve backslid to something more like this era after a generation of relative peace. perhaps that’s the true natural order, though.

    Dustin (6e7388)

  229. How would Mitt Romney have handled the situation? We can’t know, since he never got the chance, but he is both smarter and wiser that President Obama, so the odds are that he’d have done well.

    that’s a low bar to clear, unfortunately.
    my Persian cat is smarter than both Perry & Ear Leader, since he actually learns from his mistakes.

    redc1c4 (403dff)

  230. Perry thinks that he can smear Romney’s performance at something Romney hasn’t been involved in, just … well, obviously just because.

    And that’s consistent with Perry’s treatment of fact for all his comments to date.

    SPQR (768505)

  231. Here’s an illustration of the problem;

    http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/sites/default/files/images/2013/04/WMD1BIG.jpg

    narciso (3fec35)

  232. Well one of them, Yongbyon, was a product of forty years of imput by the Russians and the Chinese,

    narciso (3fec35)

  233. Some of the more recent comments about NK remind me of things I heard about Stalin. Sometimes audiences would clap until hands bled, because everyone was afraid to stop clapping until he nodded permission.
    After Stalin died there was a meeting of high ranking officials and someone complained why hadn’t Kruschev and others stood up to his excesses.
    Kruschev barked, “Who said that!?”
    No one answered.
    Then Kruschev said, “Exactly, we were too scared to do anything”.

    I guess being a tyrant with everybody fearful for their lives works for awhile, but when they start to figure that they will eventually get on the bad list no matter what they do, then they know they have to do something.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  234. From the wiki;

    Khrushchev assisted in the purge of many friends and colleagues in Moscow oblast.[38] Of 38 top Party officials in Moscow city and province, 35 were killed[38] — the three survivors were transferred to other parts of the USSR.[39] Of the 146 Party secretaries of cities and districts outside Moscow city in the province, only 10 survived the purges.[38] In his memoirs, Khrushchev noted that almost everyone who worked with him was arrested.[40] By Party protocol, Khrushchev was required to approve these arrests, and did little or nothing to save his friends and colleagues.[41]

    narciso (3fec35)

  235. Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 4/5/2013 @ 7:24 pm

    Thanks for that info. I had not realized the purge under Krushchev was that bad, or that it was the collective forces that put him into power that somewhat coerced him to do it as well.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  236. That’s not the half of it, remember what they said about the Vichy French, and being more ruthless then the Nazis;

    Party leaders were given numerical quotas of “enemies” to be turned in and arrested.[41] In June 1937, the Politburo set a quota of 35,000 enemies to be arrested in Moscow province; 5,000 of these were to be executed. In reply, Khrushchev asked that 2,000 wealthy peasants, or kulaks living in Moscow be killed in part fulfillment of the quota. In any event, only two weeks after receiving the Politburo order, Khrushchev was able to report to Stalin that 41,305 “criminal and kulak elements” had been arrested. Of the arrestees, according to Khrushchev, 8,500 deserved execution.[41]

    narciso (3fec35)

  237. Sometimes audiences would clap until hands bled, because everyone was afraid to stop clapping until he nodded permission.

    Even when not in his presence they’d applaud him until their hands bled. Alexander Sozhenitsyn wrote about a party official who finally stopped clapping after about 10 minutes and sat down to get the meeting the townspeople had gathered for underway.

    When they arrested him his interrogator told him, “never be the first to stop clapping.”

    In North Korea you didn’t, among other things, want to be the first to stop crying and wailing over Kim Jong Il’s death.

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/international/north_korea_reportedly_punishing_rhHyKb5jpyMVVsk1EVI2sO

    The Daily NK, an online newspaper based in South Korea and run by opponents of the North Korean government, said it had learned from a source in North Hamkyung Province that, “The authorities are handing down at least six months in a labor-training camp to anybody who didn’t participate in the organized gatherings during the mourning period, or who did participate but didn’t cry and didn’t seem genuine.”

    Daily NK also said that the source reported that those critical of the country’s dynastic system – which saw Kim replaced by his son Kim Jong Eun – were being sent to re-education camps or banished with their families to remote areas.

    In addition, the paper said, the source reported public trials were being held for those who attempted to leave North Korea during the mourning period for Kim and even for those who used mobile phones to call out.

    This of course is difficult to confirm as the article notes. But if you recall the pictures of the North Koreans mourning their Dear Leader some of them looked far more frightened than grief stricken.

    Even Kim Jong Un’s family doesn’t appear to be immune from the fear of doing the wrong thing around the dictator.

    http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/08/20/Kim-Jong-Un-Family-Photo-Poor-Timing-or-Pure-Terror

    That woman in the front holding the little girl looks like she’s petrified.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  238. Holy Schmoley–even Fidel Castro is telling lil Kim to cool his jets!

    In the brief piece published in Communist Party daily Granma and other official media, Castro warned of the impact that nuclear war could unleash in Asia and beyond. He said Havana has always been and will continue to be an ally to North Korea, but gently admonished it to consider the well-being of humankind.

    “Now that you have demonstrated your technical and scientific advances, we remind you of your duty to the countries that have been your great friends, and it would not be fair to forget that such a war would affect … more than 70% of the planet’s population,” he said.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/fidel-castro

    elissa (59a015)

  239. And that in itself, is a little ironic as he threatened to launch first during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

    narciso (3fec35)

  240. Hagel’s instincts are exactly wrong.

    http://www.examiner.com/article/former-cia-director-hayden-tells-it-like-it-is-on-north-korea

    Former CIA Director Michael Hayden told LIGNET this week that the possibility of North Korea launching a nuclear attack is “somewhere between extremely remote and zero,” but that he believes the current situation with the North is extremely dangerous and is becoming more so by the year. The cycle of threats by North Korea followed by promises of aid must be broken, he said.

    …“I think unfortunately, because we’ve acted with tremendous restraint over the past quarter century, we’ve simply taught the North Koreans that they can do these kinds of things with impunity. And now I think we are very much on the edge,” said Hayden in a sit-down interview with LIGNET director Fred Fleitz.

    In the long run we’d have been better off had we reacted with some sort of punitive strike after the NORKs sank the Cheonan, and I we would pay a price for not doing so at the time. Certainly we should have done something after the NORKs shelled Yeonpyeong island.

    I believe this may be the time the bill will come due.

    http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/04/north-korea-climbdown/

    Ex-CIA Analyst Expects North Korea to Attack South Korea Before Tensions End

    Unless North Korea wants to be annihilated, its leadership has to find a way to climb down from its current wave of provocative rhetoric. But one of the CIA’s former top Pyongyang analysts thinks dictator Kim Jong-un will order a limited strike on South Korea — as a way to actually tamp down hostilities.

    “North Korea will launch an attack,” predicts Sue Mi Terry, a Columbia University professor who served as a senior analyst on North Korea at the CIA from 2001 to 2008. The attack won’t be nuclear, she thinks, nor will it be a barrage from the massive amounts of artillery Pyongyang has aimed south.

    Instead, Terry believes, “it will be something sneaky and creative and hard to definitively trace back to North Korea to avoid international condemnation and immediate retaliation from Washington or Seoul.” This, she thinks, is what counts as de-escalation in 2013 from the new regime in Pyongyang: a relatively small attack that won’t leave many people dead.

    …That right there points to the dangers of miscalculation. South Korea didn’t respond to the Cheonan. But new president Park Geun Hee is “determined not to echo that weakness and has vowed a strong response to any direct provocation,” writes regional expert Patrick Cronin. Terry thinks President Obama will restrain South Korea from a major reprisal — and she wouldn’t “bomb Pyongyang” in any case — but Washington “won’t be making any significant gestures to the North,” either.

    Park has said they will respond forcefully.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/01/us-korea-north-idUSBRE93002620130401

    (Reuters) – South Korea’s new president vowed on Monday to strike back quickly if North Korea stages any attack, but the United States said it has seen no worrisome mobilization of armed forces by the North Koreans despite their bellicose rhetoric.

    “If there is any provocation against South Korea and its people, there should be a strong response in initial combat without any political considerations,” South Korean President Park Geun-hye told the defense minister and senior officials at a meeting on Monday.

    Our response to the Cheonan was a humiliation. The UN security council issued a statement condemning the sinking. Never naming who did it. I don’t believe the ROKs will take another attack lying down. They are sick of this.

    And frankly Park has been in office less than two months. The NORKs have a pattern of doing this to test new ROK leaders. She will be under a lot of pressure to demonstrate to both the North and the South that though she’s new she won’t be pushed around.

    Kim Jong Un is younger than 30 and inexperienced. Is he capable of keeping his military on a leash?

    Would he want to, knowing that the previous two Kims were capable of forcing concessions from the South and from the US with this kind of brinkmanship? He’d be demonstrating that he’s not capable of doing the same.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  241. It would be sort of like 1990, but Kuwait city isn’t in artillery range of the Iraqi border post, as Seoul is to the DMV

    narciso (3fec35)

  242. This is relevant to the current situation.

    http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/12/06/2012120601143.html

    Kim “is extremely nervous about the possibility of an emergency developing inside North Korea,” claimed an informed source.

    …”Kim Jong-un desperately needs to bolster his personal security detail due to mounting opposition to his efforts to rein in the military,” said one diplomatic source.

    …Kim’s efforts since June to improve the North’s economy floundered on fierce opposition from party hardliners afraid of losing their grip on power. High-ranking party officials ignore Kim’s orders and write them off as unrealistic, and are instead busy watching their backs or looking for ways to make money, the source said.

    “Even Kim Jong-un as the ruler of the notorious North Korean regime cannot unleash an unrestrained reign of terror,” said one intelligence official here. “He probably chose to launch a rocket now to gain some credibility.”

    He may still be trying to gain that credibility, among other motives.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  243. I noticed the WaPo is no longer taking comments on this article.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/03/29/a-very-good-sign-that-north-korea-is-bluffing-about-war/

    A very good sign that North Korea is bluffing about war

    We’ve been here before. North Korea is threatening war, readying its military, issuing a series of increasingly ominous and categorical declarations about its intentions. It’s even cut a crucial inter-Korean phone line. It’s sending just about every possible signal that a country might send before it goes to war.

    Except that North Korea has done most of these things before, including severing the phone line. So how are we supposed to tell the difference between the bluffs and a real, earnest ambition to start a full-scale war? There’s no way to know for certain short of reading Kim Jong Un’s mind, of course. But we do have one pretty good metric with which to judge the country’s intentions: the Kaesong Industrial Complex.

    …For all North Korea’s bluster, it’s stopped short of what would seem to be an easy choice if it were about to start a war with South Korea. If you’re Pyongyang, you keep the Kaesong plant open only if you’re looking forward to next month’s payroll checks. And you know you can only count on that if you’re not also turning the country that writes those checks into a “sea of flames,” as North Korea so often threatens.

    If anything, North Korea appears to be going to lengths to keep the plant running.

    In today’s Yonhap news:

    http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2013/04/08/74/0401000000AEN20130408009800315F.HTML

    N. Korea to withdraw all its workers from Kaesong complex

    SEOUL, April 8 (Yonhap) — North Korea said Monday that it will withdraw all of its workers from the Kaesong Industrial Complex in response to unacceptable provocations against the country’s dignity.

    They haven’t kicked out all the South Koreans. But they haven’t been letting any more South Koreans north of the DMZ for awhile. Also, they haven’t been letting any raw materials in, so the Kaesong complex has been effectively shut down for a week or so.

    Steve57 (be3310)

  244. the little North Korea man pisses in food stamp’s face

    and they both like it that way I think

    I think they like it a lot

    happyfeet (8ce051)

  245. True, Mr. Feets. Over at Powerline they wrote:

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2013/04/a-futile-protest.php

    Protesting Vladimir Putin with nudity is akin to threatening Barack Obama with a round of golf.

    Which is true. But then this also works:

    Protesting Vladimir Putin with nudity is akin to threatening Barack Obama with a round of golf having a pudgy NORK dictator who likes to hang around with a heavily tattooed cross-dressing ex-NBA player as much as Obama would piss in his face.

    Asked later about the incident, Putin Obama said that he “liked it.”

    Steve57 (be3310)

  246. 246. Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 4/6/2013 @ 8:07 pm

    It would be sort of like 1990, but Kuwait city isn’t in artillery range of the Iraqi border post, as Seoul is to the DMV

    This could be sort of like the run up to the 1967 war. Except that Nasser kept saying he (and otehr Arab countries) would attack and destroy Israel, while Kim Jong Il is stuck in the posture of war being a response to an attack.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  247. Nasser had quite a wrong idea of his military capability as well – even after the war started.

    And his claiming American and Brityish planes had attacked might not have been something he thought at the time was untrue.

    His chief of intelligence was a KGB agent.

    He had led him to believe in 1966 that Israel was going to attack Syria. That maybe had sort of started it.

    I don’t think it has ever been explained what the Societ Union thought it was doing, or who made the decision.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  248. Maybe somebody is taking the 1967 war as a model.

    You don’t have to be 30 years old and new to be misled. Gamel Abdel Nasser of Egypt was about 15 years in powrr and 49 years old when he had a complete misunderstanding of the military situation. All you need to have is a trusted expert or a few of them who are lying to you.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  249. 229. Comment by SPQR (768505) — 4/5/2013 @ 2:46 pm

    Sammy, you are confusing yourself again.

    But here’s where I am confused.

    I don’t know whose doing it – who’s maybe misleading the dictator.

    I don’t know whether it’s people in the People’s Liberation Army of China who want somebody to use an atomic bomb somewhere, figuring maybe there won’t be enough done in return, so that a threat ti use a nuyclear bomb becomes credible, and they rate the chances of success as minimal, but the chances of survival for the regime and for Kim staying in power as something better than minimal.

    OR

    Whether it is some North Korean (or even Chinese) generals who want him to lose a war because that’s the best way and the safest way to get him out of power. And they’d even be happy or maybe deeply desire and end to the entire regime, particularly if this is an all-North Korean plot, because it’s not safe for anybody in North Korea as long as the regime continues. Too many purges. No real hope for no purges. And maybe even some Chinese generals might want him out of power to weaken the regime in China.

    Or – spomewhjat different – maybe 1938 Germany is a model: Somebody wants him to start a war or something early because now he will lose quickly, and maybe tghat will let somebody stage a coup. Much better than waiting till next year.

    Or – maybe the Chinese generals want him to start it later, for the first reason mentioned above, to make the use of nuclear weapons credible, but it’s getting out of their control. Or some North Korean generals are trying to accelerate it in order to topple the regime.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  250. Kaesong: At first I was confused, because I remembered Kaesong from reading about the Korean War. Kaesong is below the 38th parallel, but after the Korean War it wound up in North Korea. The armistice line of course does not follow the prewar boundary exactly.

    What Souith Korea said wasthey would defend their people – I guess if something put them in danger.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  251. Good allah, Nasser had hired Nazi scientists to build rockets, based at Helwan, to attack Israel, five years before, it was one of the subplots of the Odessa files.

    narciso (3fec35)

  252. Paul Simon said there were 50 ways to leave a lover,
    the number of ways miscalculation can start a war is unknown, but too many.

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  253. “Pig politcs” is one way, Doc.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pig_War_%28Serbia%29

    Consequences

    This conflict was crucial in running up to the decision of the Habsburg Empire on a final (and ultimately unsuccessful) military strike at Serbia in 1914. It therefore is one of the causes of World War.

    Soccer is another.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Football_War

    Admittedly the war wasn’t fought over a soccer game, but the rioting did raise tensions to the boiling point.

    As an aside, it marked what must have been the last war the Vought Corsair ever took part in so just thinking about it makes me a bit misty.

    Here’s a model kit:

    http://hsfeatures.com/features04/fg1ddwa_2.htm

    Tamiya’s 1/48 scale F4U-1D
    Soccer War Corsair

    Steve57 (be3310)

  254. 257. Comment by narciso (3fec35) — 4/9/2013 @ 1:24 pm

    Good allah, Nasser had hired Nazi scientists to build rockets, based at Helwan, to attack Israel, five years before, it was one of the subplots of the Odessa files.

    I think Israel killed (or scared off) many of those scientists. They got the names from Otto Skorzeny, in Spain, in return for leaving him alone.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Otto_Skorzeny

    Skorzeny later provided intelligence to Mossad, Israel’s external intelligence service, on ex-Nazi scientists working for the Egyptian government. Skorzeny agreed to cooperate with Israel on condition that Simon Wiesenthal erase his name from the list of wanted Nazi war criminals and act to have an arrest warrant against him cancelled. Though Wiesenthal rejected this request, Skorzeny decided in the end to cooperate with Mossad anyway.[26] [27]

    Skorzeny had freed Mussolini and kidnapped Admiral Horthy’s son in Hungary, forcing him to resign and turn the country over to the Nazis, and he had arranmged the impersonation of American soldiers at the battle of the Bulge (which got him indicted for war crimes)

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  255. Excerpot from news item from Arutz Seven today:

    >> Some Syrian rebel groups have been linked to Hamas and to Al-Qaeda.

    It’s now official.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/world/middleeast/Iraq-and-Syria-jihadists-combine.html?_r=0

    Iraq’s Branch of Al Qaeda Merges With Syria Jihadists

    By HANIA MOURTADA and RICK GLADSTONE

    Published: April 9, 2013

    BEIRUT, Lebanon — Iraq’s branch of Al Qaeda said Tuesday that it had merged with the Nusra Front, a group of jihadists fighting to topple President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, in a marriage that appeared to strengthen the role of Islamic militants in the Syrian insurgency and further complicate Western assistance efforts.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)

  256. The New York Times reports that the Pentagon thinks (or the DIA thinks) that North Korea has the ability to put a nuclear warhead on its missiles, but others in the Adminsitration disagree:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/world/asia/north-korea-may-have-nuclear-missile-capability-us-agency-says.html?hp&_r=0

    Of course it’s one thing for North Korea to make one small enough – it’s another to build a trigger.

    The assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which has been distributed to senior administration officials and members of Congress, cautions that the weapon’s “reliability will be low,” apparently a reference to the North’s difficulty in developing accurate missiles or, perhaps, to the huge technical challenges of designing a warhead that can survive the rigors of flight and detonate on a specific target.

    Sammy Finkelman (d22d64)


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