Patterico's Pontifications

Ding.

Patterico (8b3905) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:35 am

The only real way in which it might affect things, I think, is in turnout. Now turnout in NY, NJ, CT, and MD doesn’t matter. 0bama wins those states no matter how few people vote. Except that in NY, if a county has less than 25% turnout they can schedule an extra day of voting in a few weeks; but even if that were to happen it won’t change the result. But if Sandy depresses turnout in eastern PA more than in western, and in northern VA more than in southern, that could give Romney a real boost.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:37 am

Let’s win this for Andrew Breitbart.

Dustin (73fead) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:37 am

If Obama performs better than he did in ’08, then Silver is a genius. Because right now there is no reason to support his assumptions unless you think D+6, D+7, etc. are accurate reflections of the electorate. Look at OH numbers from election years in the 2000’s. it was R+1 in 2010. 2008 was the high water mark for Dems, yet Silver has D’s performing at a higher rate in 2012, despite there being no evidence to support same, and much evidence to support the opposite contention.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:43 am

I’ve been saying this for well over a month.

Romney wins, beating Obama at least as bad as Obama beat McCain.

Republicans increase control of the House, and take control of the Senate.

Even Aiken wins in Missouri.

gahrie (acbb2d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:48 am

I hate obama so much

happyfeet (11d0d4) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:56 am

I find this election to be unfathomable, but I live in a largely liberal bubble of friends and acquaintances. It is very difficult to make sense of the polls. And I know a number of people who I would normally class as fiscal conservatives who have decided that no one can do anything to fix the economy, so they will vote against Romney because he is too socially conservative.

Personally, I think that Romney is much more likely to “fix” the economy than Obama is. Further, I observe that successful Republican presidents do very little to move the dial on social issues, as they spend their political capital on economic issues.

My personal leanings are small-l libertarian. I find frightening the number of people who have been convinced that the Tea Party is a social conservative movement, when it appears to me that it’s actually a loose union of economic conservatives with a wide variety of opinions on social issues. I also believe that the Tea Party has more in common with the Occupy movement than either group might think, in that both sides are sick and tired of corrupt and ineffective government.

I have no idea of what’s going to happen tomorrow, because based on the existing data, anything could happen.

But tomorrow, we will open the lid of Schrodinger’s Box and find out whether the cat is alive or dead. 🙂

Bill Roper (334fb0) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:57 am

But if Sandy depresses turnout in eastern PA more than in western, and in northern VA more than in southern, that could give Romney a real boost.

Sandy had virtually no effect on northern VA. I don’t think it’s had much of an effect on eastern PA either. Serious damage was limited to the coastal areas.

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:59 am

Mitt has more than momentum: if you listen to the audio of his rally in Buck’s county in PA last evening you will understand. The pictures only show a 1/4 of the crowd (those in front of the media podium.) The crowd to either side and behind was huge. It was — and I have been to many concerts, outdoor events, etc. – at least 40K. But back to the audio: listen to the decibel level of the crowd. Romney was on fire. WE were ALL on fire. It may have been <40 degrees out and windy cold, but the ground (it was a filed) was thumping and the crowd was united in roaring voice: Freedom.

john b (c0f7f6) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:06 am

I wonder how many NYers may even change their vote due to Sandy and the lack of response to those outside of Manhattan?

After all, if it was appropriate to blame Bush for Katrina, why not Obama for Sandy? In the name of equality, racial and otherwise.

Dana (292dcf) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:07 am

I’m imagining a massive landslide for Romney…like Reagan-Carter in 1980 massive.

Romney is tied or beating Obama in polls in Michigan and Minnesota! Obama is opening for Bill Clinton at campaign appearances.

Xmas (05d9ed) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:07 am

The question is why hasn’t Benghazi impacted the election?

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2012/11/05/what-president-obama-really-said-60-minutes-interview-about-benghazi/

Who knew Candy Crowley could mesmerize the media?

AZ Bob (1c9631) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:07 am

the dippy social cons worked hard to co-opt the teadoodles… jimmy demint gave a big speech about how jesus hates deficit spending and beck n palin did their weirdo tent revival hootenanny and then the immigrant haters tried to get on the train too…

But in the end this election is about the economy plain and also simple

happyfeet (11d0d4) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:13 am

I’ve been saying this for well over a month.

Romney wins, beating Obama at least as bad as Obama beat McCain.

Republicans increase control of the House, and take control of the Senate.

Even Aiken wins in Missouri.

Comment by gahrie — 11/5/2012 @ 7:48 am

I don’t understand what this confidence is based on. I know there’s more enthusiasm on the Republican side than the Dems, Romney draws big crowds etc. But that doesn’t prove anything.

Obama has hammered Romney with negative ads for months and Obama/Clinton are continuing to pound the theme that Romney wanted GM to die in the midwest. Romney doesn’t respond to that, which may turn out to be a tactical error in retrospect, but just continues his “We can’t afford four more years” theme. It’ll be interesting to see how late deciders break, particularly in OH. I think the conventional wisdom that they go for the challenger may not work out this time.

According to Zogby Sandy has given Obama a boost with independents.

The bottom line is, it’s close enough that they can cheat their way to a win, and I’m not certain they’ll need to cheat.

Aiken may squeak through but I don’t expect it or GOP Senate control.

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:16 am

Obama is opening for Bill Clinton at campaign appearances.

Comment by Xmas — 11/5/2012 @ 8:07 am

That’s pretty bizarre, but then so is the fact Obama is the POTUS in the first place.

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:18 am

> Does he have a shot in Pennsylvania?

Yes.

The Hurricane will depress turnout in NY, NJ, and Eastern PA.

Eastern PA leans democrat, western PA leans republican.

It’s the one place where I think there’s likely to be a significant Sandy-effect.

aphrael (f1d203) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:23 am

Nate Silver has proven not only that Obama will win, but also that Carter won in 1980, that bumblebees cannot fly and that the Dow can never go past 1000.

In short, Disraeli’s third kind of lie.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:28 am

I am told by my liberal friends that Romney is just for the rich and will destroy what makes America great. He is, they say, going to govern from the hard Right and his move to the center is just a sham.

Needless to say I sense a disconnect. Not to mention some mirror image deja vu.

But you’d think he’d be wearing a goatee if it was really like that.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:32 am

I’ve seen speculation that Romney could win New Jersey if the Dems are too busy to vote (as opposed to us ground-glass voters).

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:34 am

Re Nate Silver: also, this at xkcd

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:35 am

food stamp is reduced to idiot recitations of horton hears a who

he meant what he said and he said what he meant

jesus he’s gay

it was on cnn

happyfeet (11d0d4) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:39 am

Kevin M: I think it’s close to impossible that Romney could win New Jersey. I understand the theory, but it’s not going to happen; the state leans too far to the left in Presidential elections for the storm to have that effect.

aphrael (f1d203) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:43 am

Gerald A,

Keep in mind, Zogby is a Democrat shill. The CNN poll has Romney ahead by 22 points among independents.

Also, it’s worth pointing out that Obama hadn’t been running negative ads against Romney in PA or MI or MN for the past several months, because they were never considered to be swing states. So swing voters in those states haven’t been hit over the head that this Romney guy is evil.

And, along those lines, in the swing states (OH, IA, VA, WI, FL, et al) where Obama had been inundating the airwaves with smear tactics, Romney was still running neck and neck with The One, if not slightly ahead in several of them.

The issue that Obama Inc did not consider before running months of tv and radio ads characterizing Romney as a monster who wants to throw Grandma off the cliff, is that once Romney showed up to the debates and was seen as clean, articulate, and nice-looking (to quote Joe Biden), many swing voters might conclude, “Hey, maybe Obama’s giving this Romney chap a raw deal—he seems like a reasonable guy.”

If Obama’s playing defense in usually reliable blue states, it tends to point to a theme that extends to other “less blue” swing states, as well.
For instance, in 2008, Obama was not only running well in Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio, but he also was able to pick off (albeit narrowly) traditional red states such as North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Nevada, and he came within 2.5 points of winning Montana, even though Bush beat Kerry in Montana 59-36 four years earlier.

Die-hard analysts such as Michael Barone and Dick Morris and Karl Rove tend to look specifically at certain areas of swing states (counties, congressional districts, precincts) for voter registration, absentee ballot requests, early voter results, projected turnout on election day, etc., in order to help them “predict” which way a state is leaning. And based on what they’ve seen thus far, things are looking good for Romney.

There was a recent report that Democrat early voting and absentee ballot requests among Democrats in CHICAGO is way down as compared to 2008.

Elephant Stone (65d289) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:00 am

I started to write a comment about how an Obama win on Tuesday will be an ominous sign that the Democrats have moved closer to forming that permanent electoral majority that they have been yammering on about since the Clinton era, then I suddenly realized that the success of Democrats nationally is wholly dependent upon having a charismatic Presidential candidate. If you look at off-year elections since the Clinton era when there is no Presidential candidate involved, you see two GOP routs (1994, 2010), a slight GOP gain (2002), a draw (1998), and a Democrat rout (2006). If Obama wins a second term, the 2014 election will go a long way towards telling us whether the Democrats are truly ascendent, or if their entire success was in having a telegenic candidate who appealed to a lot of their various interest groups.

The only other comment that I want to make about tomorrow’s election is that I think overall Romney has run a pretty impressive campaign. Not a perfect one to be sure, but I am pretty happy that he has done as well as we could possibly have hoped for. I feel pretty good about voting for him, it’s not just going to be a protest vote against the failures of the Obama Administration.

JVW (f5695c) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:11 am

Should have written “mid-term elections” instead of “off-year elections.”

JVW (f5695c) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:13 am

I’m in hanging chad/butterfly ballot lala land. In ’08 the locals were every enthusiastic for Obama. I see very few O stickers on cars or lawn signs this year. Yes, the gay teachers still love him and the post menopausal biddies bitch about Romney taking away their reproductive rights.

One JAP friend thought it was so historically exciting to vote for the first black messiah as potus and has never voted Republican before. So she was leaning to voting Roseanne Barr but apparently now thinks Romney is better for jobs and will vote for him. Told me Jews will vote for Romney this time. I guess the polls still say otherwise. CNBC’s Jim Cramer says Obama in a landslide? I take that to be the blindered world of the swells.
Friends in Pa., even democrats are going with Romney and say only people they know supporting O are the blacks. I don’t suppose Colin Powell’s endorsement of O will increase the black vote though. And then you have the 500 military brass ad endorsing Romney today.
Friend with friends in Chicago says they are voting for Romney as are her Jewish friends in Florida. I’ve not answered any polling calls at all. I see a strange out of state number and just ignore it. I guess the question may come down to how motivated the dependent I-want-free-shit class is to vote. Or how many votes liberals can create out of thin air, graveyards, etc. Recall the idiot thief comedian Stuart Smiley in Minn. and the Washington State bogus votes.
The question I never have had answered is why people feel so enamored of Obama regardless of the facts. Perhaps all those millions spent demonizing Romney paid off in that regard. In any case IMHO if Obama remains in office I don’t see how we don’t sink into same situation as Venezuela and Argentina. Or regress into an even worse case as California on a national scale. I can live with 4-8 years of Romney Derangement Syndrome if Mittens wins.
I don’t idolize Romney but he is clearly far superior in every way to the assclown Barack. I don’t know who could have done better for the GOP and am glad the candidate wasn’t another old man like Dole or McCain. If O wins and by some miracle is impeached and removed from office, I don’t see how Biden could be any worse.

Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:29 am

#23

Okay Elephant you convinced me. Now does Akin stand a chance?

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:33 am

Elephant Stone’s analysis is good. I remember too back in 2008 seeing that Obama was making last-minute campaign stops in North Carolina, Virginia, and Indiana and realizing that he had it in the bag. Perhaps the Romney ticket appearing in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Wisconsin yesterday is a good sign, and not just a feint designed to appear competitive there.

I think that if Romney is going to win tomorrow that it should be called pretty early. If Romney wins Florida*, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Ohio — all of which are in the Eastern time zone — then I am thinking that Mitt-mentum will be real and he will pull through in states like Iowa and Colorado. If Romney also wins Pennsylvania, he is on his way to an electoral college rout.

* Yes, I do recall from 2000 that the panhandle of Florida is in the Central time zone, so the networks probably won’t call Florida until those polls close. Here’s hoping that Florida is a solid Romney victory and we don’t need to sweat out those remaining counties.

JVW (f5695c) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:43 am

E Stone–That was a very good post. Where I live it is an accepted foregone conclusion who will win the state’s electoral votes and so blissfully for us there have been almost NO presidential election ads, mailers, and only a few robo calls recently. Except for some rabid congressional races and reminders about early voting, one living where I live could almost forget there’s a “to the death” presidential election going on.

Ohioans and Floridians and Iowans and Virginians in particular have been inundated for months and frankly are sick of it and immune to almost any new ads, calls, etc. from either side. But, as you say, states such as Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, etc. which have not been bombarded and overserved with leftist venom to date may well be receptive to reasonable and positive ads and calls at this late date–and may actually appreciate that some campaign is paying attention to them and asking for their vote! Plus, after the debates they can see and feel the Mittmentum around them in a more enlightened and open minded way.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:43 am

I base my claim partly on:

The fact that over 90% of people hang up on pollsters.

The tens of thousands of people who quietly waited in lines in the sun for hours to buy a fast food chicken sandwich to show their support for a man attacked by Democratic political machines for his private political views.

The thousands of people who searched out the media-ignored documentary Obama 2016.

The 2010 elections.

The failed recall effort in Wisconsin.

My faith in the American people.

This won’t reach Reagan/Mondale territory, but Romney will win easily.

gahrie (acbb2d) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:18 am

3 – Dustin, Definitely. Were ” All Breitbart ” tomorrow.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:18 am

Pace JVW, I would not put it past the media to, once again, call Florida early, conveniently forgetting that the Panhandle is in the Central Time Zone.

Oops!

Pious Agnostic (2c3220) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:20 am

I predicted before the first debate that RR would gather 320+ EV; seeing the Gallup Tracking Poll (328/210) and Gallup Electorate Poll (377/161) confirms that confidence.
Rasmussen’s 295/243 + Barone’s 315/223 calculations only re-enforce that optimism.

If I lived in Chicago, I would hire a child actor to go into the Obama HQ and replicate that quick scene from “A League of their Own”:

You’re going to lose, you’re going to lose!

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:20 am

I am an ex child actor…will work for peanuts
no–peanuts real peanuts

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:27 am

Leading indicators? Obama and his celebutard friends:
From the AP — Springsteen’s appearance came a day after Stevie Wonder energized a Cincinnati rally for Obama, prompting the president to do a brief shimmy on the stage to “Signed, Sealed and Delivered.”
From the Dayton Daily News — Four years ago, he drew a crowd of 27,000 to Nippert Stadium at the University of Cincinnati on a chilly November night. Last night, a crowd that fire officials estimated at 15,500 – including 2,000 in an overflow room – showed up at Fifth Third Arena for a rally that also included a performance by Stevie Wonder
— So, Stevie “energized” a crowd that was 43% smaller than last time.

Icy (734067) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:28 am

33- Have somebody film it and post to YouTube, and I’ll send you a carton of Dodger Stadium peanuts.
Bonus for being escorted out with vigor.

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:31 am

Im loud! My specialty is pointing and saying “He touched me” I’m no Tatum Oneal, but I would settle 4 40/60 split
cash

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:35 am

@34

I know the crowd size estimate was ostensibly made by “officials”, but remember, fire depts are union too.

I would like to see another estimate of the crowd. I have been hearing about crowd sizes for O in the 2000 range.

Either way, they were there to see Stevie Wonder, not O.

kinlaw (2fb87c) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:37 am

Hey, I’m a product of the Obama Funemployment.
Cash is not an option!

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:38 am

AD is harassing me!

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:39 am

Just part of your maturing-process (Heh!).

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:43 am

All you commentators are witnesses! Harassment!

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 10:44 am

Aphrael: I think it’s close to impossible that Romney could win New Jersey.

Oh, agreed. I was just repeating a fantasy.

Even given the Gallup 13-point swing to Republicans over 2008 in turnout, I think the furthest a big Romney wave could go is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Oregon. Kind of an anti-drubbing firewall.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:07 am

Do you think Sandy has affected the race?

Obama’s approval rating has gone up since Sandy, so a majority of people think yes.

Does Mitt still have momentum?

Mitt’s only positive momentum was a transient bump after the first debate. So, yes, he’s back to having downward momentum in the polls.

Does he have a shot in Pennsylvania?

Whatever.

How do things look in Ohio?

They look like they always do in a state with a Republican Att’y General…like a two-bit dictatorship. Disgusting legal gamesmanship is already going on even before election day. People like him should be water boarded.

Is Nate Silver a genius or is he all wet?

Stupid question, he’s neither. He’s applying a very simple model that he has explained ad nauseam to anyone who will listen (which excludes most Wingnuts like yourself, of course).

P. Tillman (fcbc8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:08 am

As soon as my Lawyers Mom lets him have his bike back
we are gonna pedal over to… sue ur asses

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:09 am

buttons, I think the quote is “Help! Help! I’m being repressed!“

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:12 am

Ow, look, Pillman’s back.
We are so blessed.

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:17 am

Silver, Friedman & Krugman entering the NY Times building.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIUeEpTLBvQ&feature=related

Romney.

But send lawyers, guns and money.

scott (b8618e) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:19 am

Here’s something. Even on the campaign trail Mayor Giuliani is assuming a leadership role and an advocacy role for fellow New Yorkers in the NYC/Fema debacle as is typical of him –and in the process is highlighting Bloomie for the ineffective out of touch idiot he is. There are a lot of ex-New Yorkers in Florida and people with family in New York that Rudy is reaching with this.

At a Sunday gathering of Mitt Romney partisans in West Palm Beach, Florida, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani delivered a blistering attack on President Barack Obama for what he said was a “disgraceful” response to Hurricane Sandy.

“Maybe the first day or two of the storm, the president did a good job,” Giuliani said. “The last three or four days? It’s disgraceful.”

The Brooklyn-born firebrand excoriated the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for neglecting to bring bottled water to the Northeastern U.S. during the days before the superstorm hit.

“It’s disgraceful what he’s done. It’s disgraceful what his FEMA has done,” Giuliani said. “There are people in New York City who don’t have bottles of water like this. See this little bottle of water? They don’t have it in New York. You know why? Because Barack Obama’s FEMA didn’t think to pre-position it.”

“What — they didn’t learn anything from Katrina?”

(full video at Hot Air.)

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:20 am

The Republicans (hopefully Conservatives) have a REAL chance to increase their House seats and take over the Senate by several seats.

Worthwhile reading for the day before the presidential election 2012:

Romney for President
The Obama record is unimpressive.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332484/mitt-romney-president-editors

AdrianS (6bcbdf) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:21 am

Hilarious, scott.

DRJ (a83b8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:21 am

“What — they didn’t learn anything from Katrina?”

Said the nitwit who relocated the NY Mayor’s disaster command center to the WTC AFTER the first bombing attack.

It’s amazing who you Wingnut fools will listen to as long as they sing your hateful tune.

Gonna be all over tomorrow though…kiss the Mormon polygamist Lying for the Lord rat’s ass goodbye for ever, hopefully.

P. Tillman (fcbc8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:23 am

Illman is just lubing up its anti-Mormon bigotry. It knows what is coming.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:27 am

shorter ~~Kos~~ Tillman

“Screw them.”

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:28 am

Hurricane Sandy may mainly affect the popular vote, but not the way they say. It will cut down Romney’s votes.

The areas affected are in blue states, but they are areas in which the majority of the votes are for the Republican.

If you remmeber the county by county map afte rthe 2000 election, the vast majority of counties in the United States vote Republican. If you were to take away the ten copunties where Obama rolled up the biggest margin over McCain, he would ahev lost the piopular vote.

It’s the seashore of New Jersey, and the south shore of Long Island, (and most of Long Island for that matter) where people lost power and sometimes their homes. And Staten Island. And far Rockaway. Most of this Republican leaning areas. Manhattan south of 39th Street lost power but it got it back.

Only in Ohio may this tilt this somewhat away from Romney as areas in Ohio sustained some damage before the storm made a U-turn.

Sandy also had the effect of giving people a break from the campaign. I think at that point momentum was going away from Romney toward Obama because he had sounded ineffective about Benghazi. Freezing this helped Romney.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:32 am

“The Brooklyn-born firebrand excoriated the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for neglecting to bring bottled water to the Northeastern U.S. during the days before the superstorm hit.”

elissa – But do they have arugula?

daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:33 am

Mitt Romney is a polygamist now, is he, Tillman? Got any pics of his other wives?

Icy (734067) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:33 am

Comment by Milhouse — 11/5/2012 @ 7:37 am

But if Sandy depresses turnout in eastern PA more than in western, and in northern VA more than in southern, that could give Romney a real boost.

No. Almost every place gives Romney a margin – he only loses in (highly populated) very urban areas, and they were not flooded and did not have lasting power outages.

OK, maybe the suburbs of Washington D.C. but they won’t have difficulties there.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:34 am

Ow, look, Pillman’s back.
We are so blessed.
Comment by AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! — 11/5/2012 @ 11:17 am

— Not to worry, after tomorrow he will crawl back under his rock.

Icy (734067) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:35 am

“It’s amazing who you Wingnut fools will listen to as long as they sing your hateful tune.”

Petey – How many of those Obama financed ~~U.S. built~~ Fiskers burned up as a result of the Hurricane?

daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:35 am

I know the crowd size estimate was ostensibly made by “officials”, but remember, fire depts are union too.
I would like to see another estimate of the crowd. I have been hearing about crowd sizes for O in the 2000 range.
Comment by kinlaw — 11/5/2012 @ 10:37 am

— At an earlier campaign event in Cleveland:
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer, “Fewer than 200 people showed up to watch Wonder perform a handful of his hits at the early voting event in support of President Barack Obama.”

Icy (734067) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:41 am

Comment by Bill Roper — 11/5/2012 @ 7:57 am

But tomorrow, we will open the lid of Schrodinger’s Box and find out whether the cat is alive or dead.

Oh no, we won’t. That’s when we create Schrodinger’s box.

Take Ohio. You will have large number of virtual votes.

(I am not sure how it works – if someone votes absentee and then tries to vote at the polls, do they invalidate the absentee vote?

Or is the absentee vote invalidated only if the election day vote is valid?)

But anyway.

Let’s say somebody votes Election day without ID.
They cast a provisional ballot.

Now, they wait and see.

If they decide they were right they go back and make their virtual vote real. And if not they don’t.

I wonder even if somebody in Ohio could plan a way to delay making a choice till November 17th.

This way:

1. Cast an absentee vote for one candidate.

2. Go to the polling place – or does casting such a vote take them off the rolls? – and vote the other way – but without ID, thus creating a provisional vote.

Depending on what they think November 15th, either let the absentee vote stand, or make the Election Day vote real.

But it might be taht any kind of absentee vote or early vote takes someone off teh rolls for Election Day.

Then there’d only be the choice of voting one way but leaving 11 days to validate that. Till then, it is only a virtual vote.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:42 am

Comment by Kevin M — 11/5/2012 @ 11:07 am

Even given the Gallup 13-point swing to Republicans over 2008 in turnout, I think the furthest a big Romney wave could go is Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Oregon. Kind of an anti-drubbing firewall </i.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan carried New Jersey – and New York.

He did it again in 1984.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:44 am

Question of the day:

Is Illman that blinded by hate, or does it think that this tactic is going to help Obumbler?

Hmm?

kinlaw (2fb87c) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:45 am

Yesterday, we reset our clocks;
Tomorrow, we reset the Oval Office.

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:46 am

“– Not to worry, after tomorrow he will crawl back under his rock.”

EXACTLY my sentiments about Romney the Liar and Ryan the Liar.

And not just me…

P. Tillman (fcbc8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:00 pm

“Is Illman that blinded by hate, or does it think that this tactic is going to help Obumbler?”

Said the nitwit who refers to the POTUS as “Obumbler”.

And

I hate obama so much

Comment by happyfeet — 11/5/2012 @ 7:56 am

Party of Hate asks why people hate. Really, this site can be confused for The Onion sometimes…

P. Tillman (fcbc8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:01 pm

Petey – Why should people vote for Obama? Give us your best arguments.

daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:04 pm

spewing obscenities, ahhh the bells of defeat are starting to ring…

EPWJ (4380b4) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:04 pm

P.Tillman, and you personify the Party of the Vagina.

And calling Romney a liar only reinforces the fact that the Democrats’ entire campaign has been a continuous brazen liefest.

SPQR (b3e68a) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:05 pm

Tillman, even the most partisan among us should understand that the electorate is historically divided almost 50-50 between left leaning and right leaning citizens who shift slightly from election to election. The hate and venom you regularly spew aginst half the people in this country is nothing short of stunning.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:06 pm

Democratic bigotry on full display, the true party of hate and intolerance.

SPQR (b3e68a) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:07 pm

Patterico, slightly OT, but I still can’t make up my mind between Lacey and Jackson for DA. They both seem on the surface like good peeps. Jackson has more recent courtroom experience, and Lacey more administrative experience. Any insights? I understand if you’re reticent to say anything, seeing as you will presumably end up working for the winner.

Hayabusa (d3a02c) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:08 pm

In 2008 when the GOP establishment allowed the CorruptMedia to pick the lack-luster maverick, John McCain, as their standard bearer, it all but sealed a Democrat win. Democrats were wildly enthusiastic about their candidate and the GOP’s McCain was yesterday’s news, an uninspiring boring old windbag with no fight left in him.

But when McCain announced Sarah Palin as his choice for a VP running-mate it pumped real grass-roots excitement into the race. Suddenly the GOP had a chance, a slim chance, but a chance nevertheless.

Alas, it was not to be. Practitioners of the politics of personal destruction in both parties immediately combined forces with the CorruptMedia to unmercifully trash that fine woman in a disgusting feeding frenzy of viciousness, venom, and misogynistic outrage. Even Palin’s daughters were slimmed along with her Downs Syndrome baby.

Although hope springs eternal, weeks before the 2008 election it was beyond obvious Obama was going to win. It came home to me as I was helping out at the wedding of an old friend’s daughter when one of the guests, a farmer from the San Joaquin Valley gleefully intoned that isn’t it wonderful that we’re getting an opportunity to vote for a black man for President of the United States.

Obama’s skin color was the deciding factor for that farmer: he looked no deeper, he didn’t care. Obama was black and that was enough to qualify him to lead the nation. And there were so many more like him that an Obama victory was assured, dark skin combined with happy talk was a winning combination.

Now, four years later I can’t help but wonder who that farmer intends to vote for this time, although he’s certainly had enough time to reconsider his previous choice.

ropelight (4bedce) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:09 pm

“What — they didn’t learn anything from Katrina?”

Guess not.

The lesson to be learned was: Never depend on the government, if you have any choice in the matter.

Dave Surls (46b08c) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:09 pm

EXACTLY my sentiments about Romney the Liar and Ryan the Liar.

And not just me…

Comment by P. Tillman — 11/5/2012 @ 12:00 pm

Back on that AGAIN? You gonna show that list from Think Progress showing all these alleged lies by Romney-Ryan that don’t demonstrate any lies? Or that other dingbat link you gave us?

Obama repeatedly tells calculated unambiguous lies.

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:11 pm

It most definitely affected BHO’s approval rate. I don’t buy that this translated into more than one point. The two major polls, with thousands and thousands of responders, indicate a historic shift to the GOP, and a huge Romney advantage among so-called Independents.

A TsuRomney is on the way, my friends.

Ed from SFV (a55dcf) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:16 pm

I predict that PDilly’s pay period ends on Friday but he’ll knock off the job early tomorrow and screw his employer out of three good paid-for days of trolling.

Pious Agnostic (2c3220) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:17 pm

Went to catholic school as a kid
nuns enjoyed beating my knuckles
lost faith for years
but thank God
the christians will vote Romney

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:27 pm

PA–Aren’t Democrats sort of well known for not paying their bills or shorting providers on contracted rates? It’d be a darn shame if Tillman got stiffed for all his work here.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:28 pm

Some of you know that I was an election judge 4 years ago. My precinct was 88% Obama. Despite his anti-Fed paranoia, I will probably vote for Gary Johnson this time.

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:31 pm

A darn shame indeed if all of Tillman’s work was for naught.

Still, a workman’s worth his wages, even if it’s shoveling dung.

Pious Agnostic (2c3220) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:33 pm

elissa, yes there are businesses in Denver still unpaid from 08 DNC.

SPQR (b3e68a) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:33 pm

I’ll relish for weeks to come the almost certain cannibalization of the left by the left.

The denial, the anger, the resignation, the numbness and depression, then the retribution and reprisals as one leftist after another is paraded to the center of the circular firing squad.

I might not eat for days, because the fare on MSNBC should be so delicious.

scott (b8618e) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:42 pm

Tillman, did you find those pics of Ann Romney’s sister wives yet?

Icy (cdc9d6) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:44 pm

Sabato predicts Obama. He’s usually correct.

bob (7b4374) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:45 pm

Gee, carlitos, thanks for the help.

Icy (cdc9d6) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:46 pm

Said the nitwit who relocated the NY Mayor’s disaster command center to the WTC AFTER the first bombing attack.

The nitwit is the one who doesn’t know the difference between 7 WTC and 1 & 2 WTC. 7 was never bombed, and there was no more reason to believe it a worse location than any other. The most likely disaster anticipated was flooding (gee, i wonder why), and a bunker in WTC was ideally situated for that eventuality. Or for pretty much any other except the building being struck by debris from the falling towers next door. Which nobody, including Osama bin Laden, thought would happen.

Mormon polygamist

That, of course, is a deliberate lie. You know damn well that Romney is monogamous. Unlike 0bama, who’s certainly had multiple sexual partners. Or Obama’s father, a literal polygamist.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:51 pm

EXACTLY my sentiments about Romney the Liar and Ryan the Liar.

I love how liars lie about people who aren’t lying to defend the lies of other liars.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/carney-obama-abused-the-public-trust-for-political-gain/article/2512481

“We have to recognize that we face more than a deficit of dollars right now,” Obama told Congress in his first State of the Union address. “We face a deficit of trust — deep and corrosive doubts about how Washington works that have been growing for years.”

A few seconds later, speaking on this very theme, the president blatantly lied to Congress and the country.

“We’ve excluded lobbyists from policymaking jobs,” he said.

But sitting in the front row of the House chamber were four former lobbyists whom Obama had appointed as Cabinet secretaries. His Internal Revenue Service general counsel had lobbied for the Swiss Bankers Association. His Treasury Department chief of staff was fresh off a gig as a Goldman Sachs lobbyist.

As Obama spoke those words, more than 40 ex-lobbyists held policymaking jobs in his administration.

That’s just one of thousands of documented lies Obama’s told. They’re piling up fast & furious, especially after Benghazi.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:52 pm

“Is Illman that blinded by hate, or does it think that this tactic is going to help Obumbler?”

Beats me. But, I don’t spend a whole lot of time dwelling on exactly what it is that motivates cockroaches.

Might want to flip that question to an entomologist.

Dave Surls (46b08c) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:56 pm

Steve57, I see what you did there. +1

Pious Agnostic (2c3220) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:56 pm

Even Palin’s daughters were slimmed along with her Downs Syndrome baby.

Funny typo there.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 12:58 pm

illman, did you find those pics of Ann Romney’s sister wives yet?

Here you go. And here.
Oh, wait…

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:14 pm

The thing to keep in mind about Nate Silver is that he’s got a track record both building political predictive models as well as for baseball. And it’s none too good.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2012/11/04/tarnished-silver-assessing-the-new-king-of-stats/

But, then, the defence proffered by the Silverbacks is generally a bit circular: if you challenge Silver’s method they shout about his record, and if you challenge his record they fall back on “Science is always provisional! It proceeds by guesswork and trial-and-error!” The result is that it doesn’t matter how far or how often wrong Silver has actually been—or whether he adds any meaningful information to the public stockpile when he does get things right. He can’t possibly lose any argument, because his heart appears to be in the right place and he talks a good game.

Both those things count. Silver is a terrific advocate for statistical literacy. But it is curious how often he seems to have failed upward almost inadvertently. Even this magazine’s coverage of Silver mentions the means by which he first gained public notice: his ostensibly successful background as a forecaster for the Baseball Prospectus website and publishing house.

Silver built a system for projecting future player performance called PECOTA…

…If the history of Silver’s PECOTA is new to you, and you’re shocked by brutal phrases like “wring the intellectual property out of it and chuck what was left”, you should now have the sense to look slightly askance at the New PECOTA, i.e., Silver’s presidential-election model.

It is also worth pointing out that Silver built a forecasting model for the 2010 UK election…It did not go well in the end, as his site’s liveblog of the returns records:

10:00 PM (BST). BBC exit poll predicts Conservatives 307, Labour 255, LibDems 59.

10:01 PM (BST). That would actually be a DROP for Lib Dems from the last election.

10:02 PM (BST). BBC nerd says: “The exit polls are based on uniform behavior”, a.k.a. uniform swing. So we haven’t really learned anything about whether uniform swing is the right approach; it’s baked into the projection.

10:07 PM (BST). We would obviously project a more favorable result than just 307 seats for Conservatives on those numbers. Calculating now.

10:11 PM (BST). If the exit polls are right but the seat projections are based on uniform swing, we would show a Conservative majority on those numbers.

10:13 PM (BST). Here is what our model would project… [Cons 341, Lab 219, Lib Dem 62]

The final result? Conservatives 306, Labour 258, Liberal Democrats 57. …And how was Silver’s performance after being basically given the national vote shares for the parties? Perhaps it’s best to draw the veil of charity over that.

Which, in fact, seems to be what has happened. Lucky thing for Silver’s reputation!—but then, he has always been lucky.

It is, as they say, worth reading in its entirety. I’ve left out most of analysis, obviously. The bottom line is that Silver’s model works fairly well. On the easy calls. Wildly wrong in many cases when presented with unusual situations. But no better than much simpler models which, unlike Silver’s, aren’t proprietary and can be replicated.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:19 pm

I thin Sandy may take the lever right out of NY and NJ hands. 2 Million with no power will likely meet calls for extending the vote especially with abysmal turnout somewhere toward 40%.

And having lost, who cares to finish thru the tape? All those lawyers and no action worth pursuing.

Not a redo of Nixon/McGovern or Reagan/Mondale but Progressivism will be gravely wounded. We need to cut their throats.

Philly will be a morass, vitally important to Urkel’s hopes in PA but not up to the task without Judicial help.

Silver rep for brilliance was easy come, will be easy go.

Sabato, Pew, et al., will be mentioned in Zogby company going forward. Major networks will be openly derided by the public and will abandon ‘citizen on the streets’ interviews.

Despite fraud OH, CO, NC and elsewhere will bury the Dhimmis.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:27 pm

gary, in fairness to Silver he’s never claimed he deserved any reputation for brilliance. It’s just that some of his devotees insisted on giving it to him despite his protests.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:35 pm

No matter what happens, there will be lawsuits.

I HAVE SPOKEN.

Pious Agnostic (2c3220) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:36 pm

22. 22.Kevin M: I think it’s close to impossible that Romney could win New Jersey. I understand the theory, but it’s not going to happen; the state leans too far to the left in Presidential elections for the storm to have that effect.

Comment by aphrael — 11/5/2012 @ 8:43 am

I’m sure you’re right, aphrael, about Romney’s chances of winning the EVs in NJ.

But there’s another important consideration. The days following election day. The Left will do all it can to deligetimize Romney’s win, if it can’t overturn it by “finding” ballots or in a lawsuit.

In fact the popular vote means nothing. We don’t have a national election for President. We have 50 statewide elections (plus D.C.).

But the popular vote does count for propaganda purposes. If Romney gets a narrow margin, they’ll be screaming for four years that he doesn’t have a mandate.

This is why conservatives need to turn out and vote even in states where the results are a foregone conclusion. Whether you live in a state that’s guaranteed to go to Obama like Ill-annoy or Kali, or in a state that’s guaranteed to Romney like Texas or Tennessee it’s important to get as many people as possible out to vote for Romney. To drive up his numbers and deprive the propaganda arm of the media/Democratic complex the propaganda tools.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:48 pm

65. Comment by P. Tillman ignored.
66. Comment by P. Tillman ignored.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:48 pm

OK–this is why I love politics. And why I love America. Let’s hear it for the bitter clingers!! And port-a-potties!

Last night Joe Biden held a rally at Rushville Middle School. Only 800 people showed up.
But outside was a different story.
Local farmers organized a flash tractor and crane protest across the street from the middle school. HUNDREDS of Romney supporters turned out! In addition to the 25 tractors there were cranes, spotlights and port-a-johns.
The Lancaster Eagle Gazette reported:
It only took 24 hours for a small group of Romney/Ryan supporter to gather forces and pull together a tractor pull to counter Vice President Joe Biden’s rally Sunday at Rushville Middle School.
As Biden’s campaign set up inside the gymnasium of the middle school, Republicans started setting up their demonstration directly across the street in a field.
Mike Ricketts, the property owner, said he was more than willing to let his fellow farmers and friends use his property. “We wanted to make a statement,” Ricketts said. “And people just came.”

LOL
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/joe-biden-makes-campaign-stop-in-rushville-massive-tractor-protest-breaks-out/

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:49 pm

Gee, carlitos, thanks for the help.

Comment by Icy — 11/5/2012 @ 12:46 pm

Icy,

My precinct voted 88% for Obama last time. I’m in one of the most Democratic precincts in one of the most Democratic wards in one of the most Democratic cities in the country. My vote, literally, means nothing. A protest vote for the Libertarians will at least help me sleep at night. I don’t love the top two choices.

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:54 pm

If Romney loses Illinois by one vote, I apologize. 🙂

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 1:57 pm

Silver’s competent, not a ‘genius,’ but he certainly got ‘wet’ last week in NYC- probably blown as well. 😉

This campaign ended last Monday when God voted early and hurled a spitball, low and slow, across the Jersey Shore. He tipped his hand during the GOP convention, which was all wet, too. Witness the Christie/Obama cooporation post-Sandy. Good politics that all but torpedoed the core GOP/Romney message. And GOP cowboys from Limbaugh to Murdoch admonished the Gov’na for praising the CIC’s rapid response and roaming off the reservation. When the Rabid Right cites Sandy for Romney’s loss it will be the ultimate chuckler: blaming God for losing. Priceless.

Coulter was right. They nominated the wrong guy. It’s Christie vs. Clinton in 2016 and the race has already started.

DCSCA (9d1bb3) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:01 pm

Wrong God. He was supposed to engrave the endorsement on Golden Plates.

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:08 pm

IMP – 100% idiotic 100% of the time.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:11 pm

104. Not to mention the painfully lame cliches, metaphors, and analogies he uses to fluff any and every Democrat.

Smackwater Jack Klompus (40979c) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:16 pm

Comment by Hayabusa — 11/5/2012 @ 12:08 pm

I’ve heard there’s an underground swell building for Jackson.

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:16 pm

Comment by Steve57 — 11/5/2012 @ 1:48 pm

In fact the popular vote means nothing.

Not exactly, if the Electoral vote is very very close.

If Romney gets a narrow margin, they’ll be screaming for four years that he doesn’t have a mandate.

This is why conservatives need to turn out and vote even in states where the results are a foregone conclusion.

But one thing: The disruptions caused by Hurricane/Northeasterner Sandy will tend to cost Romney votes, not Obama.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:19 pm

Bob Krumm has five different scenarios that attempt to bracket the projection – polling flaw. I think that #4 turns out to be correct, but some of that is pure hope. Low crawl across the broken glass tomorrow … 0 might lose Minnesota and I’ll try to help.

htom (412a17) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:19 pm

MN has a lot of “making up” to do after electing the Senator that shall remain nameless.

AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (b8ab92) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:21 pm

Well my final prediction is a modest alteration:

R&R 348

Sen: GOP 54

House: No change

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:29 pm

NRO’s Morning Jolt November 5th: (in part)

A Quick Trip Down Memory Lane of Recent Polling

So a lot of people who don’t read me that closely are going to look at what follows and interpret it as “Jim’s saying the polls are always wrong.” That’s not what I’m saying, but I’m prefacing all of this with that prediction, because we’ve all seen that when people don’t like what you have to say, they attempt to cut off discussion by calling you insane or silly. Sneering “truther” in response to a disagreement from the conventional wisdom is almost as worn out as “racist.”

At the heart of the entire point of polling political races is the assuption that the people in the sample are a realistic representation of the folks who will vote in the election. Now that the response rate for polls has plummeted all the way down to 9 percent — that is, out of every 100 calls the pollster makes, only 9 are completed — getting a sample that looks like the likely electorate in Election Day is tougher and tougher.

So pollsters adjust, they make extra calls and make sure they have a sample that is properly balanced by gender, by race, by age, and often times, by geography of the nation or state that they’re polling. They do this based on this fairly simple conclusion — the makeup of the kind of people who will answer questions from a pollster for ten or twenty minutes may not accurately represent the makeup of who will vote in the election. So if one gender, racial group, age group, or region may be more likely to take the time to answer questions than another, why not one party?

Folks like me have been wondering for a while whether folks on the right — with distrust and suspicion of the media fueled by decades’ worth of stories and examples and anecdotes of what they deem media bias — are more likely to hang up on the pollster, and/or urge him to do anatomically difficult things to himself, than folks on the left. Think of this as an American version of the “Shy Tory” factor.

Look back at history:

In 2002, Democrats argued, and a media who largely agreed, that President George W. Bush had been “selected, not elected” in 2004, and contended that despite the events of 9/11, and the talk of war with Iraq, Democrats would thrive in the midterm elections.

I found this article describing the difference between the late polls and the final results on a lefty site charging massive voter fraud in favor of the Republicans. He summarizes:

14 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Republican Party (by between 3 and 16 points);

– 2 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Democratic Party (by 2 and 4 points);

– In three races the pollsters were close to correct;

– The largest post opinion poll vote swings occurred in Minnesota and Georgia where pollsters got the final result wrong

2004: Bob Shrum was calling John Kerry “Mr. President” after seeing the first round of exit polls. Think about it — this wasn’t just guessing who would actually vote, everybody coming out of a polling place was a definite voter. Even then, it got thrown off because Kerry voters were much more willing to talk to the exit pollsters than Bush voters:

Interviewing for the 2004 exit polls was the most inaccurate of any in the past five presidential elections as procedural problems compounded by the refusal of large numbers of Republican voters to be surveyed led to inflated estimates of support for John F. Kerry, according to a report released yesterday by the research firms responsible for the flawed surveys.

The exit pollsters emphasized that the flaws did not produce a single incorrect projection of the winner in a state on election night. But “there were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry . . . and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush,” said Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research and Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International.

One other point: The exit pollsters were disproportionately collegiate women. Raise your hand if you think some men might be willing to tell a cute college coed that they voted for Kerry. Yup, me too.

2006: The popular vote in the House of Representatives races came out to 52 percent for the Democrats, 44 percent for Republicans, an eight-point margin. Some institutions came close on the generic ballot question, USA Today/Gallup (seven points), ABC News/Washington Post (six points), and Pew (four points). But others overstated it dramatically: Fox News (13 points), CNN (20 points), Newsweek (16 points), Time (15 points), and CBS/New York Times (18 points).

2008: If you’re a pollster who tends to overstate the number of Democrats in your sample, this was your year — fatigue over President Bush and war, a Wall Street collapse and economic meltdown, a drastically underfunded Republican candidate who spent much of his career fighting his own party, the first African-American nominee of a major party . . . and yet, some pollsters still overshot it: Marist, CBS News, and NBC/Wall Street Journal had Obama winning by nine, and Reuters had Obama winning by eleven, as did Gallup.

2010: Polling wasn’t quite as bad this cycle; everyone seemed to know a GOP wave was coming, and by the time Election Day rolled around, the GOP lead on the generic ballot turned out to have been overstated in quite a few of the later samples. But what’s interesting is how the polls indicating a GOP tsunami didn’t impact the conventional wisdom within Washington. The GOP’s gain of 63 seats — a final majority of 242 seats — was well beyond the total predicted by Politico’s John Harris and Jim Vandehei (224), NPR’s Ken Rudin (219), Arianna Huffington (228), and CNN’s Candy Crowley (223). This is not to argue a crazy conspiracy among the Washington crowd, just to point out that this year, for some reason, the polls didn’t influence the Beltway expectations — why, it’s almost as if poll results showing good news for Democrats are taken more seriously than ones showing good news for Republicans.

Then of course, you have the individual pollsters who sometimes go . . . well, haywire. Here’s from my piece about Zogby, who became the liberals’ pollster of choice in 2002 and 2004:

In 2002, his final polls were pretty lousy. In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, Zogby’s final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. Zogby’s final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points.

Late afternoon on Election Day [2004] —awfully late for a final call—Zogby predicted that Kerry would win Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico (0 for 4!) and get at least 311 votes in the Electoral College, while Bush was assured of only 213. (The remaining 14 electoral votes were too close to call.)

There’s no other way to say it: The Big Z’s final polls were garbage. His final poll had Colorado too close to call; Bush won by 7 points. He had Florida by a tenth of a percentage point for Kerry and “trending Kerry”; Bush won by 5 points. Zogby had Bush winning North Carolina by 3; the president won John Edwards’s home state by 13. Zogby had Bush leading Tennessee by 4; the president won by 14. Zogby called Virginia a “slight edge” for the GOP; Bush won by 8. In West Virginia, Zogby predicted a Bush win by 4; the president won by 13. And in the vital swing state of Wisconsin, Zogby had Kerry up by 6; the final margin was 1 point.

Zogby’s dramatically far-off results were, I would argue, fueled by a combination of hubristic overconfidence in his own ability to read the mood of the electorate and the desire to tell his biggest fans what they want to hear. I’ll let you conclude if you think that description might apply to any other pundit you see cited a lot these days — including myself.

Besides pollsters seeing what they want to see, we must recall the fairly recent example of Research 2000, which may not have actually conducted the surveys that it announced to the world. Here’s a good summary of that scandal:

It came after Daily Kos published a statistical analysis of Research 2000’s polls that alleged a series of statistical anomalies among the results. That analysis led Moulitsas to conclude that the weekly poll Research 2000 had conducted and run on Daily Kos during 2009 and 2010 “was likely bunk.”

Moulitsas added that Ali had “refused to offer any explanation” for the anomalies or turn over raw data as requested. Daily Kos lawyer Adam Bonin vowed to “file the appropriate discovery requests” in order to determine whether Ali had fabricated data.

In a rambling public response published last July, Ali characterized “every charge” made by the Daily Kos lawsuit as “pure lies, plain and simple.” He promised that “the motives as to why Kos is doing it will be revealed in the legal process.”

But by agreeing to a settlement, Ali leaves open the question of whether his data were in fact fabricated.

The same July statement also included a comment that raised eyebrows among pollsters (typos in original):

Yes we weight heavily and I will, using te margin of error adjust the top line and when adjusted under my discretion as both a pollster and social scientist, therefore all sub groups must be adjusted as well.

After sending that statement, Ali disappeared from public view. Attempts to contact his email account temporarily bounced, his Twitter account went silent and the Research 2000 website started redirecting to a Wikipedia entry on opinion polls. Ali started posting again to his Twitter account two weeks ago, although he has so far not mentioned either the lawsuit or his polling business.

Now, not every pollster is making up their results; probably none of the polls we read about today are made up of whole cloth. But this case suggests that the most paranoid scenario — a pollster not really collecting data, just pretending to and telling the client some combination of what they want to hear and what sounds realistic — can happen.

I mention all of this because I hear from a lot of readers — up through this past weekend, in fact —some variation of “EEK! X poll shows my candidate down!”

Well, your candidate may be down. But you should know better than to panic over a poll, and you should know that there’s nothing anyone could or should be telling you to make you stop being as active as you are in these final hours. You should be checking the samples, to see if the partisan breakdown makes sense to you. If the percentage of Democrats in the sample is higher than the percentage of Democrats in the 2008 exit polls, some skepticism is warranted.

That’s how you find CNN releasing a poll Sunday night that has it tied, 49 percent to 49 percent, despite Mitt Romney winning independents by 22 points, 59 percent to 37 percent. Why? “Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”

If the electorate is D+11 Tuesday, Romney’s doomed. If Romney’s winning independents by 22, he’s winning in a landslide.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:32 pm

I predict Romney will take NJ now that Sandy has spoken.

For my part my state is so Blue my vote don’t matter.

So, should I cast a principled vote for Johnson or a meaningless vote against my principles for Romney?

Dry Powder (3d5492) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:45 pm

Yahoo news says 33 million votes already cast and obama has the lead. How could they know that? I’m registered Independent, so what can they conclude from that? If Choom wins I dont hold much hope of impeachment over Benghazi. How have Congress or the Supreme court stymied O what with all those executive orders?

calypso louis farrakhan (f00049) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:46 pm

So, should I cast a principled vote for Johnson or a meaningless vote against my principles for Romney?

Depends on your state. In my state, if someone polls 5% in a statewide race, they get automatic ballot access for the next election. Johnson is polling at around 5 or 6%, depending on what you read. If you want a third party to have easy ballot access next time, then vote for Johnson.

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 2:51 pm

I was one of the 30K at Romney’s rally on 11/2 in West Chester, OH (Cincinnati suburb). Don’t let anyone tell you the energy level was low. It wasn’t. The crowd was upbeat, friendly and excited waiting for it to begin. Pollster Frank Luntz was standing next to me in the thick of the crowd on the side of the stage.

As for that Silver guy. Truly, how objective can he be if he’s associated with the NYT?

KathyP (a0d927) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:06 pm

Steve57, oddly, in this election, I think it’s more likely that Romney will win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote than is the opposite.

aphrael (ca5099) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:08 pm

107. This is why conservatives need to turn out and vote even in states where the results are a foregone conclusion.

But one thing: The disruptions caused by Hurricane/Northeasterner Sandy will tend to cost Romney votes, not Obama.

Comment by Sammy Finkelman — 11/5/2012 @ 2:19 pm

How you arrive at that conclusion, Sammy, is like so many other things a mystery to me.

Also, if you could point out where I ever mentioned Sandy or the states that storm impacted I’d appreciate it.

But my comments were directed more toward people like carlitos who live in states where the results are a foregone conclusion and who can get out and vote.

100. My vote, literally, means nothing. A protest vote for the Libertarians will at least help me sleep at night. I don’t love the top two choices.

Comment by carlitos — 11/5/2012 @ 1:54 pm

How will four years of “selected not elected,” Romney doesn’t have a mandate help you sleep?

If the Left can’t win the election, if they can’t steal the election, if they can’t get the courts to overturn the election, but if Romney just ekes out a slim margin in the national popular vote then they’ll mount a propaganda campaign claiming some sort of moral victory for Obama’s policies and demand Romney and those “extremists” running the House preserve them. Because they didn’t get such a mandate.

A vote for a Libertarian who has no chance in hell of winning won’t do anything to help repair the damage Obama has done to this country. A vote for Romney just might, even if you don’t love him. But he’s going to have to have the political capital to do it especially if Dingy Harry remains the Senate majority leader.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:12 pm

DC, let me set you straight on a couple of things.

1. Hills has ZERO chance of winning the primary in ’16.

2. The entire country (excluding the hard left, which would include you and our media) knows that O dropped by the disaster area for a photo op, then boogied off to campaign, and it is still an effin mess back there. Fema has effed it up, and people are screaming for help.

kinlaw (2fb87c) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:13 pm

Calypso@ 2:46–you are right to question that. I am quite sure that in no case has even a single vote been counted or tallied, nor will they be until election day or beyond depending on state law. These are guesstimates based on how a certain precinct has voted in the past, and I think they are doing some exit polling (we know how accurate that is) and they may be weighing newly registered voters based on whether they were submitted through a political party. All in all I think this early voting measurement is just another spinny spin from the usual suspects. Last I checked we still have secret ballot in the country.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:14 pm

I still think a Barcky win, by the tiniest of margins, 49.7-48.4, with the balance to “other”. A very close EC win as well, and immediate claims for a mandate. At worst, House stays the same, and Senate either tied, Reid won’t power share, or Dem by 1 vote.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:16 pm

116.Steve57, oddly, in this election, I think it’s more likely that Romney will win the popular vote but lose the electoral vote than is the opposite.

Comment by aphrael — 11/5/2012 @ 3:08 pm

I’m told by people who are supposed to be experts on such things that it is virtually impossible for anyone to have more than a 1% margin in the national popular vote and lose the electoral vote.

I’m not claiming that your scenario is implausible. I’m pointing out that, as sure as death, taxes, and post-election lawsuits flaring up across the country, if Romney wins the EVs but his margin of “victory” in the NPV is something like 1.8% the media/Democratic complex will fight a rearguard action in the MFM that will make MSNBC’s pre-election coverage look genteel.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:19 pm

How will four years of “selected not elected,” Romney doesn’t have a mandate help you sleep?

Interesting point. In solidly blue states like mine, there could be reduced Democratic turnout, which might actually drive Romney towards a popular vote win. There is zero chance of Romney winning the electoral vote, in my opinion. Obama’s got probably ~320 electoral votes in the bag.

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:23 pm

Remember the upswell of popular support for Chick-fil-A. The American commons are chopping at the bit to drive Obama and his Democrat enablers from power. Count on it.

ropelight (4bedce) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:36 pm

Carlitos, if you go back and look at the final vote count in the most recent IL gubernatorial race, and examine the narrowness of Quinn’s victory, and the total number of counties Quinn did not win, you might have to slightly recalibrate your view of how “solidly blue” the state is. (I agree with you that Obama will get the Illinois EC votes this time, but Obama’s popular vote in the Land of Lincoln will be waaaay down from 2008.)

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:37 pm

120.I still think a Barcky win, by the tiniest of margins, 49.7-48.4, with the balance to “other”. A very close EC win as well, and immediate claims for a mandate. At worst, House stays the same, and Senate either tied, Reid won’t power share, or Dem by 1 vote.

Comment by JD — 11/5/2012 @ 3:16 pm

JD, everyone knows we’re headed towards the fiscal cliff.

Then there’s this:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/november-surprise-epa-planning-major-post-election-anti-coal-regulation/article/2512538

More than 50 EPA staff are now crashing to finish greenhouse gas emission standards that would essentially ban all construction of new coal-fired power plants. Never before have so many EPA resources been devoted to a single regulation. The independent and non-partisan Manhattan Institute estimates that the EPA’s greenhouse gas coal regulation will cost the U.S. economy $700 billion.

The rush is a major sign of panic by environmentalists inside the Obama administration. If Obama wins, the EPA would have another four full years to implement their anti-fossil fuel agenda. But if Romney wins, regulators will have a very narrow window to enact a select few costly regulations that would then be very hard for a President Romney to undo.

Obama and his evil gremlins are working overtime to make good on his early promise to make electricity costs “necessarily skyrocket.”

Which is going to be hard for people to pay for due the fact that what employers don’t lay people off or shift their operations overseas will be cutting peoples hours back to part-time status because of this:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83291.html

The once-steady stream of regulations and rules from the Obama administration — instructions for insurance companies, hospitals and states on how to put the law in place — has slowed to a trickle in recent months in an attempt to avoid controversies before the election. Many states, too, have done little public work to avoid making the law an election issue for state officials on the ballot.

But work has been going on behind the scenes — both in the Department of Health and Human Services and at the state level. As soon as Wednesday, the gears and levers of government bureaucracy are likely to start moving at full speed again.

HHS is expected to begin to release the backlog of regulations. And the states will quickly face a Nov. 16 deadline to tell the Obama administration whether they’ll implement a health insurance exchange — a key part of the law about where consumers will purchase health insurance after 2014.

I honestly can’t believe, JD, that there are really so many people bent on national suicide they’ll give King Putt the victory.

The whole country is going to look like Staten Island if President Kill List gets four more years.

Maybe you’re right. Maybe there are enough people stupid enough or short-sighted enough to vote for Obama.

Well, if I’m wrong, I guess I can get some satisfaction mocking them when reality starts to set in sometime between November and January when the IRS starts sending out the new tax forms that gets all up in their ass about their health insurance.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:38 pm

people suck

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:39 pm

126.people suck

Comment by pdbuttons — 11/5/2012 @ 3:39 pm

If only they had a sister.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:40 pm

I hope I am wrong wrong wrong. And I hope y’all rub my nose in it.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:41 pm

Minnesota No. 1 in voter fraud.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:41 pm

For my part my state is so Blue my vote don’t matter.

So, should I cast a principled vote for Johnson or a meaningless vote against my principles for Romney?

In CA, IL or NY, you should probably vote for the policies you would like to see in place. Probably the same in places like Texas or Utah. If you always vote for policies you hate, you’ll just get more policies you hate.

As it happens, though, I prefer Romney to Johnson, at least in part because Johnson solicited funds as a Republican and did not return the money after he went LP. A libertarian should be more careful of implied contracts.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:44 pm

OK, maybe I won’t vote.

Here I am in central PA, and I just got 3 robocalls from Republican oriented groups within a half hour – during dinner.

OK, so I’ll vote, but they are shooting themselves in the foot. I don’t need to be reminded that tomorrow is election day, only zombies need that reminder, and they won’t let zombies vote in Lancaster County.

If I drop my landline it will be the Republicans’ fault.

Amphipolis (e01538) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:46 pm

But one thing: The disruptions caused by Hurricane/Northeasterner Sandy will tend to cost Romney votes, not Obama.

This might be true in NY, but not necessarily in New Jersey. It also ignores the (now literally) “crawl over ground glass” voter.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:46 pm

“…they won’t let zombies vote in Lancaster County.”

Obviously, an attempt to suppress Democrat voters.

Dave Surls (46b08c) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:50 pm

Racists! …Rapist! Mysinogist! My sisters in a coma
feel better now? btw mis sin o gest is google spelling unfriendly

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:51 pm

==JD, everyone knows we’re headed towards the fiscal cliff.==

Unfortunately, I don’t believe everybody does know that, Steve57. Some of the congresscritters in my neck-o-the-woods have been vigorously campaigning against “Republican scare tactics” and claim that entitlements such as Medicare and social security will be solvent for years if they just raise taxes a teensy bit on the millionaires and billionaires. I want to believe the legislators know and are just shielding the masses from the bitter truth. But some days I wonder if the Dem congress loons even “get” it themselves.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:51 pm

Carlitos, if you go back and look at the final vote count in the most recent IL gubernatorial race, and examine the narrowness of Quinn’s victory, and the total number of counties Quinn did not win, you might have to slightly recalibrate your view of how “solidly blue” the state is. (I agree with you that Obama will get the Illinois EC votes this time, but Obama’s popular vote in the Land of Lincoln will be waaaay down from 2008.)

I don’t disagree. However, I’d say that the number of votes in total will be waaaaay down, not just those for Obama. And “number of counties” doesn’t mean squat, as those Bush / Gore blue/red maps tell us. Whether Jasper or Grundy counties lean Romney doesn’t mean much.

carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:53 pm

128.I hope I am wrong wrong wrong. And I hope y’all rub my nose in it.

Comment by JD — 11/5/2012 @ 3:41 pm

I, at least, won’t rub your nose in it. I know where you’re coming from. I look at the opinion polls and I’m gobsmacked Obama’s even in this race. By all rights he should be toast. He should be polling in the mid 30s at best.

But one thing that gives me confidence is that numerous smart people at numerous websites have made the same insightful point about the polls in swing states.

As we know, they are weighted very heavily Democratic. In many of he polls, they have a greater Democratic advantage then Obama actually received in 2008.

If that’s true, then they’re not actually swing states. If those states have such a high percentage of Democratic likely voters that they can wipe out the huge advantage Romney has in winning over the independents, then thos aren’t swing states. They’re solid blue states.

But they aren’t. They’re swing states.

It doesn’t add up. If they’re swing states then the electorate can’t match the turnout model the pollsters are using.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:58 pm

132…How do those Amish and Mennonites tend to vote in your area? I have no recollection of what my in-laws voted except since my divorce from a Mennonite many years ago, her brother came out of the closet and is a huge fan of Obama. Otherwise I can’t say anything bad about about Pa. Mennonites because they do help out greatly in disasters.

Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8) — 11/5/2012 @ 3:59 pm

The jersey pumpkin will never get the nomination in 2016 – unless the progressive twit turns democrat. Govna is all he will ever be.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:03 pm

“I look at the opinion polls and I’m gobsmacked Obama’s even in this race. By all rights he should be toast. He should be polling in the mid 30s at best.”

A Republican would not be within 10 points of the lead.

This is the lesson we need to learn this time around: no matter who wins, our media still have the power to carry a candidate, and that power has to be taken from them. Peacefully, through ratings and such, but they still have enough low info voters to influence, in order to get their guy elected. I thought they had blown their credibility in 2008.

Are there really that many stupid people in this country?

kinlaw (2fb87c) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:05 pm

At the time in 2004, there was a lot I heard on the radio about the Amish in Ohio and PA mobilized to vote because of the pro-traditional marriage related items on the ballots.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:05 pm

elissa @135, “everybody” was perhaps an overgeneralization. I probably should have said something like, “It’s widely known.” Clearly there are always going to be enough people who can’t find their butts with both hands who will buy what the Dems are selling.

That’s why I said Obama should be polling in the mid-30s.

If Barack Obama and his step-dad Lolo stopped by their house and barbequed their own pet dog in their own backyard they’d still blame it on the GOP.

Chrissie “Tingles” Matthews comes to mind in that regard.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:06 pm

I squat to pee Matthews is a rabid Obama fan and sees racism in everything directed at Choom. Despite ratings in the crapper, the sad sack Chrissie pulls in $5 mil a year. Someone suggested boycotting various NBC adjuncts to protest the obama stooges in house, especially at msnbc.I’m one who would love to see the whole crowd commit suicide Tuesday night. What I don’t get is the mindset. Partisanship for sure, but those people act like they have rabies. Matthews was once a beat cop and also speechwriter for Carter and I recall there was some talk of him running for Pa. senator some years back. Even more curious to me is the mental illness of LGF cretin Chuckie Johnson. I wonder if` he has since altered his opinion of Dan rather’s fake but accurate scam? And I recall Rather was the one who called Florida for Gore in 2000 with the Panhandle still voting. Also talk now of military ballots being screwed up again.

Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:16 pm

Having been recently at my aged mother’s assisted living place and noting that everyone has voted absentee, I wonder what happens when someone dies before the election. Does their vote count? Who checks?

Note: this is different than the Chicago Way of dead voting.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:18 pm

This is strictly anecdotal, but I found it to be inspiring. Last night, my 26 year old daughter – not much interest in politics – told me that of her friends that had voted/were voting, the two who were pretty low-information (okay, she called them dumbassed) voters were voting for 0bama. She has 10 friends who are going with Romney. We live in the norther part of California’s Central Valley, so I took this as a good omen.

Colonel Haiku (b97bc7) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:19 pm

There is much more enthusiasm for the Repub candidate this time than 2008. There is much less enthusiasm for Obama, as evidenced by size of crowds as reported and by the lack of Obama signs I see in Philly and suburbs than in 2008. Romney had a huge crowd yesterday in Bucks county which I know has lots of Dems around in the area.

Clinton was sent to 4 different places today in PA.

The poll giving it to Obama seem to be using voter turnout projections based on 2008 without taking into account what happened in 2010, which was a referendum on Obama.

It seems to me it ought to be a 1980-like repeat, though not as powerful. But I don’t think Obama should have ever made it out of Ill. state politics, so in one way I’ll be only a little surprised if the election results don’t make sense.

But I agree with what others have said above, the nation is in peril when free people will not report the news accurately and a large amount of the public has no clue how much they are being manipulated. I don’t think Ben Franklin would say we are doing a very good job of keeping the republic at the moment.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:20 pm

Obama win by 4%; Dems keep Senate; GOP holds House but loses loonies like Bachman, West et al.
Christie vs. Hillary in 2016. The race is already on; the gov’na’s demonstrating savvy-if-necessary bipartisianship and Bubba’s prepping the battlefield for the wife.

DCSCA (9d1bb3) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:21 pm

How the heck did FEMA’s incompetence get ignored by the press after Sandy? 67% think Obama did a heckava job on Sandy, according to Gallup.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:21 pm

IMP is silly.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:24 pm

We live in the norther part of California’s Central Valley, so I took this as a good omen.

The most ironic thing I’ve seen is the correlation of pro-Obama voting with unemployed people and areas with high unemployment.

*cough*foodstamps*cough*

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:24 pm

Are there really that many stupid people in this country?

Of course. Ask Rupert.

DCSCA (9d1bb3) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

The problem with Hillary vs Christie is that the country will be much poorer and probably smaller in 2016.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

Kevin – bottled water get there yet? Generators? The MFM is all about Teh Narrative.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

and after this election, there needs to be repercussions of some sort for the actions of CBS News… sitting on the info where – on 9/12 – 0bama clearly puts to rest the notion that he called Benghazi a terrorist attack earlier same day in the Rose Garden. The weak sucks put it out there on their website two days before the election, probably only to mitigate the charge that they were so far in the tank for 0bama that they did everything they could to facilitate his ONGOING LYING TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HE ALLEGEDLY SERVES.

Colonel Haiku (b97bc7) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

this election could happen as soon as tomorrow Mr colonel is what I’m hearing

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:27 pm

Comment by Kevin M — 11/5/2012 @ 4:21 pm

It all depends on the editor in charge of approving then captions accompanying photos. It can read:
Obama Being Presidential or
Obama Without a Clue,
same picture just the opinion of the editor.

Obama with flat expression on face:
Obama Plunges in to Help Victims
picture of GW Bush with same expression on face:
Bush Reveals He Couldn’t Care Less

It really is too easy.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:28 pm

Chuck Norris and his wife just called me.

Amphipolis (e01538) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:29 pm

143. And I recall Rather was the one who called Florida for Gore in 2000 with the Panhandle still voting. Also talk now of military ballots being screwed up again.

Comment by Calypso Louis Farrakhan — 11/5/2012 @ 4:16 pm

The MFM has a lot more of those kinds of shenanigans up its sleeve for tomorrow. There is zero doubt about that.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/early-election-results-via-msnbc-148500.html

Seems a test-page for tomorrow night’s results has gone public. Claire McCaskill has already won.

The journ-O-listas aren’t going to let their messiah lose without a dirty fight. Which as an aside is why I tended to view most of the polls as pure propaganda. Especially after the Dept. of Social Justice leaned on Gallup after Axelrod complained about its methodology.

A reading from The Book of Obvious: we can expect fraud and GOP voter disenfranchisement on a wide scale to go unreported while the MFM reports nonsense and makes early calls to discourage conservatives.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:29 pm

151.Are there really that many stupid people in this country?

Of course. Ask Rupert.

Comment by DCSCA — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

We don’t need to ask anyone. We have your shining example.

You’re one of the 30% I was talking about who’d blame the GOP if BHO and Lolo ate your dog.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:32 pm

The proof of the voting will be in the eating of the Chicken. The powers that be thought they could score points attacking Chick-fil-A and were wrong. Hopefully the Romney turnout will look like a line in front of a Chick-fil-A on Chick-fil-A day.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:33 pm

Best Retro Romney line of the day at a rally “I thank you for that warm welcome. Who else is here– the Beatles?” Meatloaf may be miffed, Mitt. BTW, Willard, TVLand called- Ozzie & Harriet are with ‘ya.

DCSCA (9d1bb3) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:33 pm

Kevin M–the local media, NY Post and NY Daily News for example are on the case and their papers and websites are rife with horror stories of looting and mayhem, interviews with people who have lost all, stories of personal heroism, and illustrations of government incompetence/malfeasance, especially by FEMA and Bloomie. The NYT and National media are too busy electing Barack Obama to report competently and honestly about the storm damage and clean up to the rest of America. But it’s there if you look for it, it’s on blogs and the people who are living it are furious.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:34 pm

I want to be in St Augustine for when they announce about Romney

I might have a drink too and if I do it’ll be wild turkey straight up like in mad men and every so often I’ll swirl it around in the glass thoughtfully

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:34 pm

The thing is, DCSA, there really are a lot more people who would prefer to watch Ozzie and Harriet than Modern Family.

MD in Philly (3d3f72) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:35 pm

152.The problem with Hillary vs Christie is that the country will be much poorer and probably smaller in 2016.

Comment by Kevin M — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

What’s going to be the selling point for Hillary! in 2016? Something about how she’s the only one in the race with the experience to answer that 3am phone call?

That’ll work. We saw how she handled that 3pm phone call.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:35 pm

Hillary will be fighting to stay out of jail in 2016 and lard ass will have diabetes and settle for Morning Joe’s seat at the altar of ego.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:36 pm

Hillary is now, and will be toast and DCSCA is just roasting squirrel.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:41 pm

166. Didn’t some media dipshit insist that slow joe biden’s incandescent debate performance, wherein he trounced Paul Ryan, assure Biden of the 2016 dhimmi nomination? Deceive, inveigle and obfuscate. There were plenty of Joe Biden for Potus signs here in Boca in 2008 and, before that, lots of love for the silk pony/breck girl scumwad. When will mr. edwards be seeking office again? And why is Obama using Clinton’s old ’92 campaign music? o

Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:41 pm

I hope everyone will come back tomorrow or Wednesday to comment on the results.

DRJ (a83b8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:44 pm

So, should I cast a principled vote for Johnson or a meaningless vote against my principles for Romney?

Cast a principled vote for Ryan, and just accept that since Romney is on the same ticket your vote will have to be counted for him too. That’s what I did four years ago; I had not been intending to vote for McCain, but I was delighted to vote for Palin.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:45 pm

Should I write in ‘eraserhead baby’ or ‘2001 Big Space Baby’….mmm/ they both have gravitas

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:48 pm

it would be easier to feel sorry for lard ass if he weren’t so stupid

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:49 pm

Let the insanity begin,

Discussing his economic policies at a fundraiser in Oakland, California, last night, President Obama, told supporters that “we tried our plan — and it worked.”

“We tried that and it didn’t work,” Obama said of Mitt Romney’s proposed tax cuts and spending cuts, which he dismissed as a Bush-style “top down” economic policy. “Just like we’ve tried their plan, we tried our plan — and it worked,” he added later in the speech. “That’s the difference. That’s the choice in this election. That’s why I’m running for a second term.”

This took place today in Oakland. Where unemployment hovers around 13%.

Dana (292dcf) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:50 pm

eraserhead baby is possessed of an endearing vulnerability in think

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:51 pm

Im partial to Kubrick

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:52 pm

*I* think I mean

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:53 pm

2001 Big Space Baby has all my info

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:55 pm

Yahoo news says 33 million votes already cast and obama has the lead. How could they know that? I’m registered Independent, so what can they conclude from that?

Nothing. They’re concluding what they are from the numbers of Rs and Ds who have voted. All they’re saying is that more Ds than Rs have voted. Which is true, but not nearly by as big a margin as four years ago.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:57 pm

IMP is silly.

Are there really that many stupid people in this country?

Of course. Ask Rupert.

Comment by DCSCA — 11/5/2012 @ 4:25 pm

IMP fancies itself a news person, between hanging out with Gunga Dan, sniffing Rush’s armpits, or his time at CNN. That comment nicely illustrated the contempt they have for those that do not buy in to Teh Narrative.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:57 pm

it’s just odd how big he is

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 4:58 pm

Biggie Smalls was pretty big but he got shot in public and died… 2001 Space Baby!/Palin

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:00 pm

we tried our plan — and it worked

On what planet is persistent 8% unemployment for 4 years, impending inflation, GDP growth annually less than 2%, annual trillion dollar plus deficits, and $16,000,000,000,000 in debt a sign that something is working

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:01 pm

I hate to say it, but I think people who are hoping to pop champagne tomorrow night are going to be disappointed in how long it’s going to be (probably weeks) before the election is called. Ohio, which everybody still seems to think is the lynchpin won’t even count and report provisional and other special votes until Nov. 17. And it sounds like Ohio also has an issue with registrations which the sec of state is being required to resolve. New York and New Jersey are making special arrangements for thousands and thousands voters who have been displaced by Sandy so the popular vote in those states will certainly not be all counted and final tomorrow night either. I suppose if one candiate or other starts to run the table in other key states in an historic landslide it could all be over tomorrow, but really, that seems pretty unlikely.

elissa (17ed41) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:04 pm

172.Let the insanity begin,

Discussing his economic policies at a fundraiser in Oakland, California, last night, President Obama, told supporters that “we tried our plan — and it worked.”

…This took place today in Oakland. Where unemployment hovers around 13%.

Comment by Dana — 11/5/2012 @ 4:50 pm

These are the same people who elected Moonbeam for a second bite at the apple, the guy who signed into law a public employee collective bargaining bill that that economists at the time called the beginning of the end.

These are the people who thought he was just the guy to fix things. The guy who is at least as culpable as anyone for breaking things.

But they’ll blame the GOP if President Unicorn and Skittles tells them to. Even though they’ve probably never seen a Republican. The people who do their thinking for them told them they exist and they’re really bad.

It’s sort of the height of lunacy for the people of Kali in general and of the Bay Area in particular to blame the “rethugs” for their problems.

Sort of like how the Mayor of that burg, Jean Quan, embraces the Occupy movement that’s crapping on the doorsteps of businesses when they’re not breaking their windows or vandalizing them with graffite while her husband and dauaghter join in the protest that shut down the port of Oakland for a while.

Then wonders why she can’t get businesses to invest in her “revitalized” downtown.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Oakland-business-owners-fear-they-won-t-recover-2324043.php

Must be those eeeevil rethuglicans!

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:05 pm

Krypton, which has been discovered orbiting a star, 27. 1 light years aways.

narciso (ee31f1) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:06 pm

Obama win by 4%; Dems keep Senate; GOP holds House but loses loonies like Bachman, West et al.
Christie vs. Hillary in 2016. The race is already on; the gov’na’s demonstrating savvy-if-necessary bipartisianship and Bubba’s prepping the battlefield for the wife.

Comment by DCSCA — 11/5/2012 @ 4:21 pm

Who could be so stupid as to write this tripe but the IMP? Only an Obama voter could think that 2016 would be Christie vs Hillary. Neither of whom will be nominated by either party in 2016.

SPQR (768505) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:06 pm

I hate to say it, but…stop there

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:07 pm

Only Fat loud in your face people from New Jersey will bring this country together

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:09 pm

181. On what planet is persistent 8% unemployment for 4 years, impending inflation, GDP growth annually less than 2%, annual trillion dollar plus deficits, and $16,000,000,000,000 in debt a sign that something is working

Comment by JD — 11/5/2012 @ 5:01 pm

On that same planet, JD, which you fear will reelect Obama to a second term as National Prom Queen. Because he’s just so damned likeable. And the raaaacism.

182.I hate to say it, but I think people who are hoping to pop champagne tomorrow night are going to be disappointed in how long it’s going to be (probably weeks) before the election is called…

Comment by elissa — 11/5/2012 @ 5:04 pm

Which is why I believe Mr. feets made an excellent call when he mentioned drinking himself some Wild Turkey.

Although I think everclear or ‘shine will be more appropriate for the scenario you’ve outlined, elissa.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:11 pm

I think romney will win big and everyone can go to bed tomorrow and sleep soundly knowing that food stamp is on his way back chi-town like the whore he is

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:12 pm

back *to* chi-town this phone is really challenging to make the comments with

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:14 pm

Coulter was right. They nominated the wrong guy. It’s Christie vs. Clinton in 2016 and the race has already started.
Comment by DCSCA — 11/5/2012 @ 2:01 pm

— SPQR beat me to it, but God are you dumb!

Icy (cdc9d6) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:25 pm

Good luck to everyone and their families and loved ones. the next 4 or 8 years are going to be incredibly rough. But we are stronger than a pack of progressives the do or die work ethic is still out there that far surpasses the masses that sit on their A$$es

EPWJ (4380b4) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:26 pm

We’re all gonna die! except my candidate

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:28 pm

192- Back at ya. May your fox hole be filled with ammo.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:30 pm

Except for my candidate/damn phone!

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:31 pm

everything is going to be just fine

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:34 pm

196…u sound like my Dentist [Who I went 2 high school with]

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:36 pm

It is going to be a substantial victory for Mitt Romney. The GOP will gain seats in the House and the majority in the Senate (I think 52 seats).

We will know this Tuesday night.

Dustin (73fead) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:37 pm

My heart’s pounding.

Sarahw (b0e533) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:41 pm

Tuesdays child is full of grace.It’s that Wenesdays child Im worried about

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:42 pm

185. Who could be so stupid as to write this tripe but the IMP? Only an Obama voter could think that 2016 would be Christie vs Hillary. Neither of whom will be nominated by either party in 2016.

Comment by SPQR — 11/5/2012 @ 5:06 pm

You called it. I already went into why Hillary! “Lioness of the Battle of Tuzla Airport” Clinton and Saviour of Benghazi (not) won’t get the nom.

You’d have to be insane to think Christie will get it, too. He gives a good speech and he can talk tough but he’s at heart a Joisey Repub. Which means a liberal. If his record already didn’t preclude a run for national office, his performance on Sandy will do it. If Romney doesn’t win it’ll be in part because of Christie’s love fest with Obama. And because he refuses to fix any damage he may have done; party officials asked him to campaign in Philly on Romney’s behalf to do so and he won’t.

Then there’s his price caps and rationing. It’s like the worst of Nixon/Carter economic policies. He’s basically threatening to prosecute gas station owners if they raise prices, as if he can demand they sell below cost.

A lot of people have shredded whatever chances they may have had for a run at a national office given their performance.

Nanny Bloomie is one of them. People on Staten Island, Queens, Brooklyn, Far Rockaway are screaming for food, water, heat, etc. How does Bloomie respond? Hey, lets take all those first responders away from the disaster area so we can throw a marathon. I’m sure all the starving people would have been cheered up to see all those volunteers passing out bottled water and granola bars to the runners. If they had electricity to watch on TV. Or gas to go see it in person.

Oh, and then he denied the Brooklyn Burough President’s request to bring in the National Guard to restore order. Bloomie only wants the NYPD to carry guns on NYC streets. So not just no, but hell no to the people of NYC. I’m sure the people afraid to leave their cold, dark homes at night for fear of looters feel almost as good about Bloomie sacrificing their safety so he can make a point as they would have been cheered if he had held the marathon.

Just sayin, Christie’s got similar instincts. And by the time he’s done as Gov. he’ll also be done as a viable national candidate. He’s already toast, but by then he’ll be cinders.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:46 pm

196.everything is going to be just fine

Comment by happyfeet — 11/5/2012 @ 5:34 pm

I’m with you. Which is why I haven’t stocked up on everclear.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:47 pm

toast is loaded with carbs

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:47 pm

Mr 57 after what obama done on our little country there’s so much low-hanging fruit we won’t have enough cool whip for all the pies

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:49 pm

I’m afraid President Tiger Beat is still a viable candidate for office, Mr. feets.

He can still run for Mayor of Oakland and maybe beat Jean Quan.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:52 pm

Well,you know,Doc, when something happens,you can leave a trace of itself behind. Say,like, if someone burns toast. Well, maybe things that happen leave other kind of traces behind.Not things that anyone can notice,but things that people who shine can see

2001 Big Space Baby!

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 5:58 pm

“I’m not George W. Bush” didn’t work for Kerry in 2004, and Bush was the most unpopular politician in the country at the time. And “I’m not Barack Obama” isn’t going to work for Romney this year.

JEA (fb1111) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:09 pm

The thing is, DCSA, there really are a lot more people who would prefer to watch Ozzie and Harriet than Modern Family.

Really? What a pity. Modern Family is such a sweet, wholesome show. A family that supports and loves each other, what could be better?

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:11 pm

I watched Krauthammer on the O’Reilly show. He says the Sandy induced Obama-Christie love fest eliminated Romney’s lead but he thinks he’s coming back now. If Obama does win I’ll have to conclude God wanted him to. I won’t know what else to think.

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:16 pm

Hot babes in skimpy outfits on trampolines.

ropelight (4bedce) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:18 pm

My dog, who loves toast, but u have to butter it a certain way. He’s old, doesn’t like crusts[Teeth?]
He likes the moist buttery center[Who doesn’t?’]and he makes noises when he doggie dreams..and twitches..like he’s chasing a cat…who has toast in its paws
God Speed Dudley1

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:18 pm

Oh, and then he denied the Brooklyn Burough President’s request to bring in the National Guard to restore order.

Well, to give him credit, maybe he just said “no” as soon as he heard the clown had made a request, without waiting to hear what it was. At least, that’s what I would do if I were mayor.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:20 pm

> then he denied the Brooklyn Burough President’s request to bring in the National Guard to restore order. Bloomie only wants the NYPD to carry guns on NYC streets

As you might expect, i’ve watched a fair number of Bloomberg’s press conferences over the last week and a half. The man really seems to have a great deal of regional pride; I get the sense that his refusal of the national guard had more to do with his belief that NY doesn’t need help, that we can deal with it on our own. He keeps talking about sending NY resources out to help other areas hit in the storm.

On the one hand, it’s kind of endearing. On the other hand, a lot of New Yorkers would probably be better off today if he’d laid aside that pride.

Here’s hoping everyone stays warm this week.

aphrael (f1d203) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:24 pm

> party officials asked him to campaign in Philly on Romney’s behalf to do so and he won’t.

IMO, for the Governor of New Jersey to leave his state to go campaign elsewhere right now would be a gross dereliction of duty. His responsibility – like Cuomo’s – is to his people, and to the emergency that is still ongoing in parts of his state.

aphrael (f1d203) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:25 pm

147. “GOP holds House but loses loonies like Bachman,”

Piling on with content, Michele Bachmann polled 8 ahead last time and won by 12, third party taking 8.

She’s gained roughly 60K in conservative voters with redistribution. Her opponent is running as a ‘conservative businessperson’, i.e., lying his azz off.

Third party not putting up a candidate. Challenger’s own polls have him a point behind. Independent pollsters say 9.

I expect Michele to retire AD’s bane next turn, Frankenstein’s chimera.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:35 pm

IMO, for the Governor of New Jersey to leave his state to go campaign elsewhere right now would be a gross dereliction of duty. His responsibility – like Cuomo’s – is to his people, and to the emergency that is still ongoing in parts of his state.

I agree. And it would also be bad politics. I think Christie did exactly the right thing in giving 0bama credit where he was due it, and showing that he’s a mentch. To behave otherwise would just be churlish, and would come across that way too. Those accusing him of disloyalty to his party, or of fraternising with the enemy, have their heads in a wrong place, and will surely come to their senses after the election.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:36 pm

215. I like CC, but he is also a pandering mensch in a Blue state.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:39 pm

215- christie is a pandering fool – just like newt wanting to cruise to the moon in a space ship built for two.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:44 pm

“Discussing his economic policies at a fundraiser in Oakland, California, last night, President Obama, told supporters that “we tried our plan — and it worked.””

He’s said this before. It refers to the Clinton economy.

horow (dcc9f1) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:45 pm

aphrael,

Just as Christie has a duty to stay in his state and provide for the needs of New Jersey and its residents, Bloomberg has a duty to set aside his ego, agenda, and regional pride (or whatever motivates him) and provide for his city residents’ needs. Making excuses for Bloomberg but not for Christie makes no sense to me.

DRJ (a83b8b) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:46 pm

Mittens and the senate kick ass and bring home the bacon. Majority rules and elections have consequences. Given the power ,don’t f it up republicans.

mg (31009b) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:51 pm

horow, the Clinton economic policies were quite different from Obama’s. That’s a pathetic “explanation”.

SPQR (768505) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:53 pm

The republican leadership just voiced vote Tea Party people during the convention. Details I don’t/not sure but fuck them fo sure
Karl Rove got a big potato head
Does anyone watch Fox? ? Cspan and mlsd 4 mew/mute button

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:56 pm

DRJ: If anything, I think i’m making excuses for Christie and not Bloomberg. 🙂

I agree Bloomberg has a responsibility to set aside his pride and provide for the needs of the city.

At first, I found the we-can-do-it-on-our-own spirit to be good for morale … but that was before I found out how bad things really are, out in the parts of the city that are outside my day to day life.

aphrael (f1d203) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:56 pm

> I think Christie did exactly the right thing in giving 0bama credit where he was due it, and showing that he’s a mentch. To behave otherwise would just be churlish, and would come across that way too.

I agree.

What I ask of all of our local leaders right now – Cuomo, Bloomberg, Christie, Quinn, Booker, etc – is a focus on the emergency. Everything else is secondary.

aphrael (f1d203) — 11/5/2012 @ 6:58 pm

Bloomberg gives the lie to the ‘successful businessmen make better public executives’.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:06 pm

toast is loaded with carbs

Comment by happyfeet — 11/5/2012 @ 5:47 pm

Try whole grain breads, they are a lot lower in carbs than white.

Upping my prediction. With latest CNN poll showing race tied at 49 each, with a +11 dem sample and showing a +22 sample of indies for Romney.

Mitt takes 361 EC votes to Barry’s 177. Popular vote Mitt 53.5 to Barry’s 46.2.

peedoffamerican (ee1de0) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:15 pm

Horow = Andy = blah blah blah

Multiple IP and names is frowned upon, sophist.

And he is not referring to Clinton’s economy, he didn’t try that, and is not proposing that.

JD (318f81) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:24 pm

What a second…if ur gonna burn bread/put something on it. Butter
Bagels? Cream Cheese
English muffins..mmm butter
Toast is American as Apple pie
C’mon…take my toast…grab it out of my cold greasy dead fingers ya …

For he’s[I] a jolly good fellow
For he’s[ I] a jolly good fellow
And so say all of us[YOU]
And so say all of us[you]

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:25 pm

I’m gonna make a cinnamon bagel right now
for the freedom

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:26 pm

I work with a lot of people who live/work in New Jersey and they have not been impressed with the storm preparations or the response by the state or federal governments. I think this alleged bump 0bama got because of the storm is a lot of bunk from the usual suspects. And New Yorkers don’t look too pleased either, at least from what I’ve seen on TV coverage.

Colonel Haiku (b97bc7) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:28 pm

Randy Barnett in WSJ:

The Mistake That Is the Libertarian Party

As a young libertarian, I was very enthusiastic about the formation of the Libertarian Party. I proudly cast my vote for Roger MacBride for president. I attended the 1975 national convention in New York that nominated him. But, while I am as libertarian today as I was then, I have come to believe that the Libertarian Party was a mistake.
…
Libertarians need to adjust their tactics to the current context. This year, their highest priority should be saving the country from fiscal ruin, arresting and reversing the enormous growth in federal power—beginning with repealing ObamaCare—and pursuing a judiciary who will actually enforce the Constitution. Which party is most likely to do these things in 2013?
…
Libertarian activists need to set aside their decades-old knee-jerk reactions to the two major parties, roll up their sleeves, and make the Republican and Democratic parties more libertarian. When it comes to voting, libertarians need to get serious about liberty and give up on the Libertarian Party. Nov. 6 would be a good day to start.

As a former LP member (and candidate once), I made this same decision a decade ago. As poor as George W Bush became on liberty, he stood head and shoulders above Gore or Kerry (or Obama or either Clinton).

Going off and sulking in reaction to Nixon, playing the LP’s favorite game of “I’m purer than you are”, and nominating at least one Presidential candidate (twice) who was a thief, we generally marginalized liberty as a fringe position instead of building where we could in the party of Reagan.

Should Romney win, we’ll have another good chance. It would be ~~a shame~~ unforgivable to be the instrument of Obama’s re-election.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:30 pm

The laudatory articles about Obambi “monitoring” the storm were predictable, and pathetic, and have been shown to be BS based on the lack of follow up, bottled water, generators, etc … By the time that gets reported in the manner in which Katrina was, hell will have frozen over.

JD (318f81) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:32 pm

Those marathon generators (and tents and water and space blankets and…) are still there in Central Park, unused.

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:34 pm

____________________________________________

I still think a Barcky win, by the tiniest of margins, 49.7-48.4, with the balance to “other”.

Even a tight victory for Romney — and, of course, an outright win for Jeremiah Wright’s buddy (former if not current) — will be sort of a victory for Obama. A victory because for someone so marginal and mediocre (and mendacious) as him to still remain competitive at this late date is a sign of how decadent far too much of this country’s electorate has become.

It’s as though the American populace has flipped its lid and done a full 180-degree turn from the extremism and rigidity of the past. Or a distant past that reflected a far stronger dose of what Paul Krugman was wringing his hands about yesterday, meaning the “Bradley effect.”

The electorate back in the 1950s or 1960s (or even well after that) that was observing a theoretical public figure along the lines of, say, a class valedictorian, a Rhodes scholar, MD, PhD, star of the Rotary Club, member of Mensa, lifetime member of the Boy Scouts, Salvation Army and Chamber of Commerce, an honorable person known as the “George Bailey” of his community.

“But — pssst — the guy is also black.”

“Oh, no! How unfortunate. We can’t have that, can we. What a pity. Sorry, but blacks need not apply.”

We’ve gone from the extreme of that to the extreme of today.

Mark (66bba6) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:34 pm

On the one hand, it’s kind of endearing. On the other hand, a lot of New Yorkers would probably be better off today if he’d laid aside that pride.

Who wants to be the last person to die for the Mayor’s pride? Frankly every time I see or hear Bloomberg I’m reminded of the future leader in the dystopian Demolition Man

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:39 pm

If ur not reading race realist sites/ ur sadly misinformed
once u get by the fact that ur a defacto racist
everything is a warm bath
Im watching cspan nowI forgot how much I didn’t like Bruce Springsteen/ hes…[mute]
They asked Ray Davies…” What is your opinion of The new American Phenom,Bruce SpringSteen?’
He wryly replied
” I don’t Drive”

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:40 pm

I think Barry is going to end up as some improbably big, very bad man’s bitch.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:45 pm

I would pay big gay sex money to see Billy Bragg introduce Bob Dylan..and Dylan could warble ‘whatever’ and get one of those…hooky things and hook em off. Look At the common man…he’s got a silk vest! and jeans!

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:53 pm

Mute! pathetafucking thetic
Meet me in the land of ‘hope and dreams..
you first budy
wait

this train…oh shit ..carries..dreams? KILL me

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:55 pm

I must say/Michelle is looking pretty good nice outfit

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 7:58 pm

Kevin, libertarians and conservatives who have left the GOP should come back and assert themselves in the primary season. They need to unify around the most conservative candidate who can win, do so early, and stand their ground instead of jumping ship as scandals and idiotic claims are made about whoever is the current challenge to the establishment candidate.

But that’s a discussion for Wednesday.

Today I just hope libertarians are smart enough to make their best vote to stop the Obama administration.

Dustin (73fead) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:08 pm

One other prediction; Axeldouche welches on shaving his mustache too.

peedoffamerican (ee1de0) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:14 pm

“horow, the Clinton economic policies were quite different from Obama’s. That’s a pathetic “explanation”.”

That’s the reference — it refers to the Clinton era tax rates.

horow (dcc9f1) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:21 pm

I have a few predictions about the outcome of the election:

Any drone attacks on terrorists will be crimes against humanity.

Guantanamo will be a crime against humanity.

All foreign policy will be a crime against humanity.

Global warming will return and it will be a crime against humanity because Republican.

All domestic policy will be a crime against humanity.

Any policy, bill or law that decreases the increase in government spending will be a crime against humanity.

Any and all legislation to improve employment will be crimes against humanity.

Mormonism and Catholicism will be crimes against humanity.

If any natural calamity occurs, it will be the fault of Republicans, global warming and Republicans as well as a crime against humanity.

Israel will continue to be a crime against humanity.

Any possible Supreme Court Justice appointment will be a crime against humanity and especially women.

Cindy Sheehan will once again be the conscience of a nation ignored for four years because of Republican crimes against humanity.

Women will not have their vaginas sown shut or are denied contraceptives because Republicans are too busy committing crimes against humanity by existing.

It’s a fun game that we can all have fun with, when Romney wins, which will be a crime against humanity as he assaults all his wives for God.

I may actually enjoy it, because Romney will be President.

Ag80 (b2c81f) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:21 pm

“horow, the Clinton economic policies were quite different from Obama’s. That’s a pathetic “explanation”.”

That’s the reference — it refers to the Clinton era tax rates.

Comment by horow — 11/5/2012 @ 8:21 pm |Edit This

Obama had nothing to do with that, and is not proposing that. His proposals are in excess of Clinton’s rates.

JD (318f81) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:26 pm

So there was Clinton. Remember his tax rates? They were going to destroy the economy? And then there was the bush tax cuts. This is about not renewing the Bush tax cuts… and going back to Clinton.

horow (dcc9f1) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:31 pm

This is about not renewing the Bush tax cuts… and going back to Clinton.

They are now the Obama/Pelosi/Reid tax cuts. And since they have been in place over a decade, how about we just call them the current rates? Regardless, your nonsense is born of ignorance. The evil tax cuts you speak of had nothing to do with the economic problems at the end of the Bush term, nor did the Clinton tax rates have anything to do with the irrationally exuberant tech bubble that burst.

JD (318f81) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:42 pm

“This is about not renewing the Bush tax cuts… and going back to Clinton.”

horow – No, this is about class warfare in a capitalist society that doesn’t divide itself into classes or punish success, concepts only promoted by the left.

daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:44 pm

242. “horow, the Clinton economic policies were quite different from Obama’s. That’s a pathetic “explanation”.”

That’s the reference — it refers to the Clinton era tax rates.

Comment by horow — 11/5/2012 @ 8:21 pm

Complete and utter horseshit. That was not the reference:

“To prove that his economic plans have ‘worked,’ Obama cited the auto industry bailouts. ‘I refused to turn my back on a great industry and American workers,’ he said. ‘Three years later, the American auto industry has come roaring back.’

Can we PUHLEASE get better quality trolls at this site, Pat?

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:46 pm

Remember his tax rates? They were going to destroy the economy?

We aren’t going through the dot com bubble right now, in case you haven’t noticed. Clinton was fortunate, but it turns out that all went bust at the end of his term. Fortunately Bush turned it around, even with the financial hardship on 9/11, with those tax ‘cuts’ (as JD says, they are the status quo current rates).

We need more tax cuts to get the economy rolling.

Here is a helpful simulation of the impact of Obama’s proposed tax rates on the US economy.

Dustin (73fead) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:53 pm

I find the polling absolutely insane. They are expecting us to believe three things:’

1. Romney gets independents by double-digits.

2. Obama gets MORE votes from Republicans in 2012 than he did in 2008.

3. With absolutely ZERO visible enthusiasm, we are to expect a greater Dem turnout in 2012 than 2008.

I can see not possible way with Romney getting independents by the margin he is getting them and the absolute lack of enthusiasm I am hearing in my own area (California), that Obama is going to win by anywhere near the margin he won in 2012.

Gallup says R+1, Rasmussen says R+6, they are both polling D+3 or better. It’s just insane. People are either lying their rear ends off to pollsters or the pollsters are just making this up.

crosspatch (6adcc9) — 11/5/2012 @ 8:55 pm

“horow, the Clinton economic policies were quite different from Obama’s. That’s a pathetic “explanation”.”

That’s the reference — it refers to the Clinton era tax rates.
Comment by horow — 11/5/2012 @ 8:21 pm

Obama had nothing to do with that, and is not proposing that. His proposals are in excess of Clinton’s rates.

Yes, but he knows that most people don’t know that. Horow is correct; 0bama is indeed referring to the Clinton era. Your objection that this isn’t true is irrelevant, because it rests on the premise that 0bama is constrained to telling the truth. It sounds true, and it sounds good, so he says it.

Milhouse (15b6fd) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:03 pm

crosspatch, where do you see polls finding Obama getting more crossover votes from the GOP in 2012 than in 2008? I’ve never seen that in any of the internals.

Which makes the polls even more bizarre. Because as you point out Romney wins the independents in most if not all of the critical swing states by double digits.

So they’re asking us to believe that both Romney and Obama get about the same percentage of their base in the swing states, Romney gets the independents, yet Obama wins.

Those are not swing states then. Those are solid Democratic states. Yet by stated party affiliation they’re not. The votes do not identify with the Democrats in such significantly high numbers in those states to justify that conclusion. It isn’t a matter of disbelieving the polls when they don’t deliver the news I want to hear.

I’m supposed to believe the pollsters when they tell me these states that were swing states in 2000, 2004, and 2008 are now more solidly Democratic than they were in 2008? When pollsters like Pew and Gallup conduct polls merely asking if the voters if they ID as Democrats or Republicans, or lean one way or the other, that’s simply not true?

It makes no sense; it just doesn’t add up.

This is why I’m confident about tomorrow. Perhaps not as confident as happyfeet, but feeling pretty good.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:14 pm

251. Horow is correct; 0bama is indeed referring to the Clinton era. Your objection that this isn’t true is irrelevant, because it rests on the premise that 0bama is constrained to telling the truth. It sounds true, and it sounds good, so he says it.

Comment by Milhouse — 11/5/2012 @ 9:03 pm

No, he’s not. Obama is referencing his own policies. He’s taking credit for the “recovery” he engineered. He’s making delusional claims, but he’s not referencing Clinton’s policies.

I’ve already linked to the fundraising speech in which he used that statement, “we tried our plan and it worked.”

He was not talking about the tax rates during the Clinton years.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:19 pm

Evil kochhead rethuglecans said…if we put on the tables !0 10 dollareenos in cuts for 1 dollarados in tax hikes etc etc..would u agree to blah blah
BUT evil refuckagans said no
PUT THE CUTS ON the table first! Fool me once etc Put the cuts on the table FIRST!

pdbuttons (631b6d) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:35 pm

“Gallup says R+1”

The final poll before the election has predicted the winner of the popular vote 16 out of 19 times, and in recent elections the poll has a slight tendency to overstate the actual Democrat vote. For example, in the last election Gallup had Obama at 55% of the popular vote, but it was only 53% in the actual election.

Just in case Republican voters need something to keep their spirits up while waiting for the big day.

The Gallup poll tends to be a much more accurate predictor when there is no significant third party vote.

For myself…I make no predictions about who is going to win.

I suspect it’s going to be real, real close though.

Dave Surls (46b08c) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:42 pm

Funny as hell! warning to Secret Service in restaurant window.

peedoffamerican (ee1de0) — 11/5/2012 @ 9:52 pm

Even funnier: Bill Clinton warning against “A President who will knowingly, repeatedly, tell you something he knows is not true.”

at about 0:45

Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 11/5/2012 @ 11:37 pm

256. Even funnier: Bill Clinton warning against “A President who will knowingly, repeatedly, tell you something he knows is not true.”

at about 0:45

Comment by Kevin M — 11/5/2012 @ 11:37 pm

I’m convinced Billy Jeff wants Obama to lose. It just wasn’t that long ago that he was wagging his finger toward the camera saying “I did not have sex with that woman.” Then was impeached and lost his law license along with the case for committing perjury and suborning perjury in the Paula Jones sexual harassment case (War on Women!!).

He’s just not that stupid. He’s got to know it’s a joke to have him vouch for Obama’s ability to tell the truth.

Steve57 (320590) — 11/6/2012 @ 12:04 am

All Star VA supporting cast cannot overcome Bite Me Bomb.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/6/2012 @ 3:39 am

257. Linky:http://twitchy.com/2012/11/05/biden-flops-again-one-day-left-draws-crowd-of-800-in-va/

Put me in a home, please.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/6/2012 @ 3:39 am

“And since they have been in place over a decade, how about we just call them the current rates”

They’re also currently set to expire. So not if you want to cast it as doing nothing, then you can do that.

“The evil tax cuts you speak of had nothing to do with the economic problems at the end of the Bush term, nor did the Clinton tax rates have anything to do with the irrationally exuberant tech bubble that burst.”

So are you disagreeing about what Obama was referring to, or do you now accept that he was talking about the tax cuts but just disagree that that’s what should be done?

“horow – No, this is about class warfare in a capitalist society that doesn’t divide itself into classes or punish success, concepts only promoted by the left.”

Yes that horrible class warfare of… the 1990s.

horow (dcc9f1) — 11/6/2012 @ 3:41 am

253. “R+1”

Consider addition of ‘Likely Voter’ challenge, some within the echo chamber are seeing R+6 turnout.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/6/2012 @ 3:44 am

The BS ain’t about to stop:

http://minx.cc/?post=334684

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/6/2012 @ 3:58 am

Conservative pollsters are looking at the Donk spin and saying, “That’s the ticket, all tied up, Yeahhh!”

http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2012/11/05/everything_except_the_polls_points_to_a_romney_landslide

Won’t stop the rage, or the hannging chad fondlers, but it will not be close enough for most Jurists to f*ck with.

gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 11/6/2012 @ 4:05 am

Imdw’s nonsense is so transparent.

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/6/2012 @ 4:37 am

Apparently, the left is already pulling shenanigans at polling places throughout Philadelphia.

Icy (cdc9d6) — 11/6/2012 @ 5:10 am

Link?

JD (8e5a8c) — 11/6/2012 @ 5:45 am

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/06/gop-inspectors-reportedly-kicked-out-of-multiple-philadelphia-polling-places/

narciso (ee31f1) — 11/6/2012 @ 5:55 am

#266

This was point in #14:

The bottom line is, it’s close enough that they can cheat their way to a win…

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/6/2012 @ 6:22 am

not to be nitpicky but this thread is kinda dated

happyfeet (1b66c1) — 11/6/2012 @ 6:24 am

not to be nitpicky but this thread is kinda dated

Is the election over??

Gerald A (f26857) — 11/6/2012 @ 6:29 am

Comment by Gerald A — 11/6/2012 @ 6:22 am

275. Comment by happyfeet — 11/6/2012 @ 6:24 am

not to be nitpicky but this thread is kinda dated

276. Comment by Gerald A — 11/6/2012 @ 6:29 am

Is the election over??

It wasn’t then – Election Day had barely started, although it as later in the day than when the planbes hit the World Trade Center on primary Election Day in New York in 2001.

I think they called Florida for Obama, although it wqasn’t clear to all major news organizations this morning, orr at least when the newspapers went to print.

Florida was almost as close as it was in the year 2000. But it wasn’t the state that made the difference.

Florida was leaning less toward Obama than Ohio or even Virginia. It must be the older people in Florida, plus the fact, that while theer are Hispanics theer, most are Cuban or else so new nobody closely connected with them has citizenship.

Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 11/8/2012 @ 3:21 pm

11/5/2012

Open Thread: One Day Left Edition

276 Responses to “Open Thread: One Day Left Edition”

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