Obama Bounce? Maybe Not So Much
There are polls out showing a bounce for Obama. Allahpundit has some cautionary words about that:
Why not go full eeyore in honor of the occasion, then? Four reasons. One: O just took a roundhouse from that terrible, terrible jobs report. That’s bound to temper some of the new, Clinton-fueled enthusiasm for him. Two: Gallup’s and Rasmussen’s surveys are based for the most part on interviews conducted before O’s own widely panned speech last night. If the public was as underwhelmed by it as the commentariat, the bounce may well deflate early. Three: Gallup’s poll is of registered voters, which always skew Democratic. A 48/45 Obama lead among registereds is a de facto tie among likelies, which is precisely what Rasmussen’s finding. O’s back to even, not out to a lead. And four: Romney’s finally beginning his massive attack-ad offensive against Obama in eight key swing states today. When push comes to shove, it doesn’t much matter how O’s doing in the national daily trackers. It’s the swing-state polls that count.
. . . .
Update: A few readers have e-mailed to note that Gallup’s job approval number is based on a sample of adults, not registered voters. Right; it’s the head-to-head with Romney, where O now leads by three, that’s based on a sample of registereds. Apologies if that wasn’t clear. The point is, if we’re seeing his job approval rise among adults, that’ll probably have some similar but lesser effect among registereds and then a similar but still lesser effect among likelies. Not a huge bounce, but a little something.
Bottom line: Give it a few days and let’s see where we are.
P.S. Just idly wondering here: is Gallup the only polling company that the Obama Administration has attempted to intimidate?
Who is the last president who was re-elected with a [expletive deleted]ty economy?
Serious question.
Patterico (83033d) — 9/9/2012 @ 1:42 pmHey, Patterico… here’s a real doozie that is just screaming for a caption contest!
http://photoblog.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/09/09/13763392-biden-cozies-up-to-voters-in-ohio?lite
Colonel Haiku (d96bbb) — 9/9/2012 @ 1:45 pmPatrick, you been sandbagging your posts?
AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (2bb434) — 9/9/2012 @ 1:48 pmFour in the last 57-minutes?
Rasmussen today has the approval rate at 52-47, and even the strong approval-strong disapproval is at -10, which is better than it has been for some time. Of course on election day 2008 that was +8, and at inauguration it was +25.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/9/2012 @ 1:49 pmComment by Colonel Haiku — 9/9/2012 @ 1:45 pm
One Biker to the other (in that glance):
AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (2bb434) — 9/9/2012 @ 1:50 pm“She’ll do the geezer, let’s have fun with his detail.”
AD… “Wanna cookie, li’l girl?”
Colonel Haiku (d96bbb) — 9/9/2012 @ 2:08 pmRas is a three day tracker and big O day after Clinton speech will fall off tomorrow. Give it about 2 days. Rate of increase in gallup is decreasing. The 7 day tracker will take longer to stabilize. IPsos poll did not change today after rising to plus 4 Obama. So it has already stabilized. Byt the way the Ipsos people changed from +4D when they measured Romney up 1 to +7D in the polls that showed O up 4.
bio mom (3b9896) — 9/9/2012 @ 2:08 pmLittle did Slow Joe know he was seated next to the “Ordained Minister of Ass Kicks”…
Colonel Haiku (d96bbb) — 9/9/2012 @ 2:10 pmRomneys counter offensive is supposed to start tomorrow – lets hope it has a 6 to 10 pt effect because thats what he needs to bear Barack
Also I saw somewhere that Ryan was distorted to be saying he is willing to raise taxes to get a 50 year plan to lower spending
So here we go again (if this report is true) another we must instantly raise taxes but delay by a half century reductions in entitlements
EPWJ (774e10) — 9/9/2012 @ 2:40 pmJohn Hinderaker at Powerline notes that Romney’s ads are now on WI radio – finally.
AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (2bb434) — 9/9/2012 @ 2:43 pmWhy post a dated Allahpundit quote? Rasmussen shows Obama up 4 over Romney with a 52% approval. That’s a 7 point bounce on the vote share and like 11 points on approval.
Gallup up 5, Ipsos up 4. Both the Romney and Obama people are on background saying Obama was up “high single digits” in Ohio at the midpoint of the DNC.
Plus Romney has pulled out of Michigan and Pennsylvania and went completely dark in Ohio last week. Who takes a week off in Ohio at this late date unless they are having to completely retool their advertising operation?
It makes no sense to whitewash the developing Obama bounce and collapse of Romney EC hopes by posting a two day old quote that has already been overtaken by events.
ThomasF (42bd09) — 9/9/2012 @ 3:17 pmThomasF, the “whitewash” (you racist) is the media use of polling that oversamples Democrats so dramatically.
SPQR (4befcb) — 9/9/2012 @ 3:25 pmPatterico,
The answer to your question of who was the last prez to be elected during a
Elephant Stone (65d289) — 9/9/2012 @ 3:26 pms&*^%ybad economy is FDR, in 1936. We’ll ask Mr. Trebek to check with the judges, but I think “FDR, 1940,” might also be an acceptable answer.I think the idea of having Obama be president for four more years is stupid to where I think it’s a lot unlikely to happen
happyfeet (f3ee52) — 9/9/2012 @ 3:31 pmColonel,
Obviously, Slow Joe Biden has never heard of the tv show, “Sons of Anarchy.”
Elephant Stone (65d289) — 9/9/2012 @ 3:33 pmLawrence Auster at View From the Right (http://www.amnation.com/vfr/archives/023244.html) wrote today:
“But Obama faces no real opoposition. the theme of the Romney campaign is that Obama is a ‘failure,’ rather than a leftist who seeks to revolutionize America. As I said ten days ago, you can’t stop evil with nothing. And Romney and the Republicans are nothing.”
DN (543479) — 9/9/2012 @ 4:43 pmBiker dude on right is an Ordained Minister, President AND a Troll. Let’s you know where he’s coming from.
PC14 (87cbf8) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:02 pmThe DNC seems to have made some people feel better about Obama’s record. If the Romney people can’t figure out how to reverse that they deserve to lose.
Gerald A (f26857) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:18 pm“It’s the swing-state polls that count.”
Mmmmm.Mmmm.Mmm.Mmm.Mmmmm.
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:30 pmWhat we seem to have is a Bill Clinton bounce. When everyone remembers that Clinton is not on the ticket this year, it should deflate. Maybe Obama can get WJC to sub for him in the debates?
Mahon (8a17cf) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:45 pmA commenter at Lawrence Auster’s VFR (http://www.amnation.com/vfr/archives/023245.html) writes:
“This is in reference to your description of Romney as a ‘nothing’ and a ‘vacancy’ who cannot defeat Obama. According to Rasmussen and Gallup, Obama is back to a 49-plus percent approval rating. And what does Romney do? He said this morning that he wants to keep certain parts of Obamacare that he likes.”
“My sister was at a local political event with Texas GOP U.S. Senate candidate Ted Cruz, who declared that he wanted to repeal Obamacare from top to bottom. She then told me that she had a chance to speak briefly with Mr. Cruz and when she informed him of Romney’s remarks, Cruz just shook his head and looked at the ground.”
“Romney and Ryan speak only of our economic problems being the result of ‘a failed leadership’ and ‘failed policies.’ It’s almost surreal. Obama has done exactly what he intended to do. I have yet to hear Romney go on the attack and explain the coming catastrophe that is Obamacare. I’ve heard no reference to Obama’s lawless refusal to enforce our immigration laws, nothing baout Obama’s embrace of the farce that is gay marriage. All the Romney campaign does is make promises to create millions of jobs. At this point I increasingly believe that Obama will be reelected. The empty suit in the campaign appears to be the GOP nominee.”
DN (543479) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:47 pm@SPQR – It’s not so much that I’m racist for using “whitewash” as I am literate.
Literacy allows me to –
a) Realize that “whitewash” is a traditional type of paint mentioned in such classics as “Tom Sawyer”. Whether the book is racist is another issue.
b) Read polls, which among other things has led me to conclude that Rasmussen skews Republican. Whether it’s accurate compared to other polls is another issue. But the fact is that it tends to be +2R compared to any other poll, so if it is showing a significant Obama bounce, thats a problem.
@bio mom – Ipsos did not increase today because it releases its data in the evening. It was Obama +2 Friday, +4 Saturday, and Sunday hasn’t been released yet. If Rasmussen and Gallup show a Sunday bump (which they did) than Ipsos is likely to as well.
ThomasF (42bd09) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:54 pmYou are a good little footsoldier, Thomas. Good boy.
JD (0b7085) — 9/9/2012 @ 5:59 pmThomas:
I’m sure the polls are exactly right and there is no point for any conservative to vote. What’s the use?
Ag80 (b2c81f) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:03 pmAg80 – it is obvious to anyone literate that Teh Won got an 80 point bounce following his scintillating monotonous retread stump speech.
JD (0b7085) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:05 pmThomasF, given Ipsos heavily Democrat weighting, being +4 Obama means he’s losing.
Racist.
SPQR (26be8b) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:08 pmHow very racist of you, SPQR.
JD (0b7085) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:11 pmIndeed, JD, I’m so ashamed.
Racist.
SPQR (26be8b) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:12 pmMe and Amerikkka really don’t give a rip anymore about the candidates or their proposals. Events are all downhill to the end.
Gallup had Carter up by 8 ten days before the 1980 azz kicking. Bunny Bane was at least punching the clock for 10-12 hour days.
BootBlack is going to have his sh*teating grin wiped off his face.
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:16 pmJD:
Yes, we should just squat in our hovels and let the Dear Leader provide our succor. All is lost except for the Dear Leader.
Ag80 (b2c81f) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:31 pmThe really, really bad news for Ogabe:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-japanese-writing-walls
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-analyze-fed-not-printing-enough-money
Nothing any Central Banker will do can help. And the later they wait the better. The goose can only imitate change for a few days.
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:35 pmJapan’s present is our future:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/09/japans-revised-gdp-growth-cut-in-half.html
The Market expects Bennie next week to commence QE3, essentially running zero inflation out past 2015, past 2016,…
Who, really just who is going to put their money into US Treasuries to earn no interest for 5 years? Any confusion just watch Japan near term.
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/9/2012 @ 6:42 pminvesting in america is like investing in shit futures except for in real life you can’t actually buy shit futures
it’s a thing
happyfeet (f3ee52) — 9/9/2012 @ 7:38 pmThe polls, in the aggregate, are as biased as the mainstream media.
They are less reliable this year than ever before.
If you have a strong opinion about who should win the election, then base all your conduct on the premise that it will be razor-close — and then, regardless of the outcome, you will have no cause to second-guess your actions.
Beldar (eed156) — 9/9/2012 @ 7:39 pmOn October 27, 1908, Gallup had Carter up by 6, 45-39-14 (Anderson). On Nov 2nd the tide (at Gallup at least) had turned and Reagan was up by 3. At the polls, Reagan won 51-41-7.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/9/2012 @ 7:45 pmHere’s a concise history of Gallup’s presidential polling.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/9/2012 @ 7:46 pmIf the fed starts printing, Romney needs to call them out, and warn people of the inflation to come. Old people on fixed income hate inflation, and remember it well. It will bite more deeply than all the Mediscare Obama throws down.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/9/2012 @ 7:49 pm*1980, of course
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/9/2012 @ 7:50 pmPresident Befuddled? http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/inside-politics/2012/sep/9/tech-challenge-obama-has-trouble-iphone/
and then there’s this:
POLL: O 49% R 45%…
Colonel Haiku (c7430d) — 9/9/2012 @ 8:07 pmFLASHBACK: CARTER +4 OVER REAGAN IN SEPT 1980 [+8 IN OCT]…
FLASHBACK: DUKAKIS +17 OVER BUSH AFTER DNC 1988…
How does Romney flip flopping about the loathed Obamacare on Meet the Press garner him votes? Now he wants to keep some provisions such as “kids” staying on their parents’s policies to 26 and also cover pre-existing conditions? People already unhappy about prospects of paying for Fluke’s birth control and her fifty thousand dollar sex change procedure. I turn on tube and am inundated here in S. Florida with Urkel ads stating Romney will lower millionaire’s taxes and raise the middle class or end medicare, etc. Lots of seniors here and the old New York transplant Jews tend to vote overwhelmingly for Choom and his ilk. Food stamp use here is far above the national average also. And now Clinton has been rehabilitated?
Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8) — 9/9/2012 @ 8:09 pmBernanke is getting awful close to sending us wheelbarrows of cash for our purchases. Anyone got any overstamped Zimbabwe dollars?
SPQR (26be8b) — 9/9/2012 @ 8:19 pmCalypso,
I think the insurance companies said a long time ago that even if ObamaCare were to be overturned, they would still allow for a few of those ‘popular’ aspects to endure in the future, such as allowing an adult child to stay on the parents’ plan until age 26, et al.
Point is, Romney’s merely embracing aspects that the insurance companies will choose to enact, anyhow.
Elephant Stone (65d289) — 9/9/2012 @ 9:04 pmSomething to keep in mind, related to what I have read on this site, repeatedly, is here:
http://pjmedia.com/instapundit/150392/
I think that many Third Party folks and Democrats are trying to spread doom and gloom—talk about “suppressing the vote”!
Just look to the polls in Reagan v. Carter in September. Dukakis versus GHWB. And so on.
I have never, and I mean never, understood adulation of a candidate; the Left sickens me with their idolatry toward Obama. But at the same time, the perfect is the enemy of the good.
I’m with Sarah Hoyt and Glenn Reynolds on this one.
Simon Jester (2d8c4b) — 9/9/2012 @ 9:13 pmCalypso, how is Romney repeating the same positions he’s had the entire campaign “flip flopping” ? Sheesh.
SPQR (26be8b) — 9/9/2012 @ 9:38 pmLouis, I have long thought that the Bush family, including Barbara, were responsible for Bubba’s almost immediate restoration to public life. I know they were being good Christians and all, but that boy needed a few years in the wilderness to learn some humility.
Gazzer (4ed38d) — 9/9/2012 @ 9:49 pmI’m hoping that the polling reflects the “Bradley Effect” in that people who are being polled don’t want to appear racist and are saying that they will vote for Obama, but in reality either not vote at all or vote for Romney.
We need to get our house in order and stop spending more than we receive in earnings. All of us, public and private alike. Where are the adults?
Tanny O'Haley (12193c) — 9/9/2012 @ 10:49 pmComment by gary gulrud — 9/9/2012 @ 6:42 pm
The Obama (Lost) Decade, courtesy of Helicopter Ben.
AD-Restore the Republic/Obama Sucks! (2bb434) — 9/9/2012 @ 10:50 pmHewitt’s take on the polls, and the Dems’ attempt to use them to depress conservative enthusiasm, is pretty good. My favorite line among many: “The MSM is to facts as Antonio Villaraigosa is to voice votes.”
Beldar (eed156) — 9/9/2012 @ 11:46 pmHow does Romney flip flopping about the loathed Obamacare
There are reforms in Obamacare that were not controversial. For example, if someone has been insured by an employer, then needs a personal policy, I’d sure want then to be able to get a policy regardless of “preexisting conditions”, and at a fair rate. The problem comes when the never-insured get sick and then suddenly want insurance as if they’d been paying into the risk pool.
This is not new information, BTW — most of the Republican candidates said that they would want to revisit some reforms after repeal.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/10/2012 @ 12:30 amAnyone got any overstamped Zimbabwe dollars?
They actually weren’t overstamped. I’ve got some uncirculated Zimbabwe 100 trillion dollar notes. THe really funny thing is that they weren’t the first series. Before the New New Zimbabwe dollar there were two devaluations, one of 1:1000 which quickly failed, then one of 1:10 billion. The 100 trillion note is of the latter dollars and represents 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 of the original 1980 Zimbabwe dollar.
Later there was a New New New Zimbabwe dollar with a devaluation of 1:1 trillion but if also failed and they gave up. Zimbabwe people now use US dollars and goats and such.
Kevin M (bf8ad7) — 9/10/2012 @ 12:38 amPolls, schmolls. I don’t care what they say.
As bad as Romney is (and he stinks on ice), he doesn’t look nearly as bad as Obambi.
So, I’m voting for Romney.
What do I care what everyone else does?
If the polls have Obama up 99-1…I’m still going to vote for Romney.
Dave Surls (46b08c) — 9/10/2012 @ 12:54 amAnyway, I don’t vote for (alleged) Presidents who can’t even count.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/09/gaffetastic-obama-pulls-a-biden-tells-audience-three-proud-words-made-in-the-usa-video/
What a maroon.
Dave Surls (46b08c) — 9/10/2012 @ 1:02 amBeside mendacity, a big part of the Ministry of Truth’s problem is they’re surveying survivors.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/07/worse-off-in-2011/?iid=HP_LN
They haven’t adjusted for the losses to the business population in sampling employers for hiring and growth.
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/10/2012 @ 2:20 amMore florid vapors on ECB but from actual journalist.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/09/07/worse-off-in-2011/?iid=HP_LN
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/10/2012 @ 4:10 amAfghanistan is the recidivist:
bombings-in-iraq-kill-100-people-following-sunni-vps-death-sentence
gary gulrud (dd7d4e) — 9/10/2012 @ 6:12 am43 SPQR..yesterday Newsmax characterized Romney stance as going from repealing Obamacare in toto and telling Meet the Press now that he wants to keep parts of Obamacare. Or the title they use for article is: Romney Reneges on Promise to Fully Repeal Obamacare. I’d be happy if government just got out of medicine and education. It seems to be both did better without endless layers of dipshit bureaucratic meddling and bungling. I know we have had inflation but I recall how much lower costs were and even how better off society, including blacks, functioned without the feds pervasive interference in all aspects of our lives. Just saw a story online of a man bitten by a scorpion who spent 3 HOURS in hospital and bill was $83,000. Yes, it was back in 70s but my first two years of college at a community college was a mere $15 a credit hour and now we hear about enormous student loans for useless degrees. I’d like someone to rein in all those alphabet fed agencies. It seems the medicare you pay in goes up over 100% in 2014 and that entails copays and deductibles if you actually should use it.
Calypso Louis Farrakhan (e799d8) — 9/10/2012 @ 7:46 amOf course some of us live in Obama’s mamas land around simple sisters who endlessly praise the Chitown thug. Those Obama’s mamas are buying into the libtard ads. You have old bags horrified about the prospects of Romney outlawing their precious abortion rights. The supposedly so intelligent Hebrews are some of the most eager worshippers of the new black Jesus. And of course many Hispanics eat up the new amnesty plan for illegals. I suppose it makes sense for illegals for vote legally instead of legally and another benefit is the local Salvadoran gangbangers won’t be recycled back to central american just to reappear here over and over. Guess I shouldn’t complain after I see the way Victor Davis Hanson describes the failing California mess.
I just noticed that on Facebook the libtards are circle jerking over Romeny’s encounter with the gay veteran.
Wait a day and we might find the guy isn’t a vet. It’s been going that way for the Obamabots.
PC14 (87cbf8) — 9/10/2012 @ 6:21 pmre: #48… c’mon, Beldar. I was lectured a few months ago and told that Hewitt hasn’t had an interesting thing to say for years.
He’s great though!
Colonel Haiku (7560b4) — 9/10/2012 @ 6:32 pmYes, Hugh Hewitt is the man.
The dude has several jobs…radio talker, law practice, law professor, blogger, author of books, lecture circuit.
Unlike the Emperor, he ain’t got time for revealing his March Madness picks on ESPN, giving interviews to People magazine, or playing 18 rounds of golf every other week.
He’s fun…a really engaging guy, in person.
Elephant Stone (65d289) — 9/10/2012 @ 7:09 pmYou gotta watch the internals. Always.
President Obama has pulled to a six-point lead over Mitt Romney in a new CNN poll taken in the aftermath of the party conventions.
The CNN/ORC survey shows Obama with a 52 percent to 46 percent lead over Romney among likely voters, a six-point bump from the last CNN poll released during the DNC.
The Hill’s Christian Heinze points out the weird internal in the poll: Romney actually beats Obama by 14 points among Independents. But the reason likely is that CNN sampled almost no registered Independents. CNN surveyed 441 Democrats and 397 Republicans in its registered voters sample, leaving only 37 registered Independents possible in its total sample.
http://www.businessinsider.com/cnn-poll-obama-romney-convention-bump-bounce-dnc-democratic-clinton-2012-9
elissa (2d6c00) — 9/10/2012 @ 7:40 pmGood work, Elissa.
If the “52-46” poll were accurate, that would literally mean that Obama has lost almost zero support from his 52.9-45.7 victory over McCain in 2008, and we know that’s simply not the case.
In fact, if Obama loses only as few as about 6% of the voters who voted for him in ’08, (who switch to Romney) he should lose.
And the flip side of that coin is that I don’t think there’s a single person who voted for McCain in ’08 who is now saying, “Yeah, this Obama person is awesome—I now see the light—I’m voting for him !”
Elephant Stone (65d289) — 9/10/2012 @ 8:00 pmBig noise about Bob Woodward’s new book and his background on the lack of leadership President Barack Hussein Obama displayed during the 2011 budget crisis. No surprise here, as the president certainly doesn’t lack self-regard, but surely lacks managerial and negotiating skills. The man never had any challenges, never run or managed anything in his life that would’ve helped him develop those attributes.
Woodward recounts how Obama’s own legislative director advised members of Congress, “Look… you can raise the taxes of millionaires all you want and it doesn’t solve the problem”, which is ironic as that strategy appears to be the centerpiece of Obama’s economic package in the 2012 campaign.
Colonel Haiku (7560b4) — 9/10/2012 @ 8:17 pmYou can have a lot of fun at “Left Action” on Facebook. Throw out a hook and it’s Bite Palooza.
PC14 (87cbf8) — 9/10/2012 @ 8:20 pm1. 13.
Comment by Patterico — 9/9/2012 @ 1:42 pm
Who is the last president who was re-elected with a [expletive deleted]ty economy?
Serious question.
Comment by Elephant Stone — 9/9/2012 @ 3:26 pm
The answer to your question of who was the last prez to be elected during a s&*^%y bad economy is FDR, in 1936. We’ll ask Mr. Trebek to check with the judges, but I think “FDR, 1940,” might also be an acceptable answer.
In 1936, the economy was much improved over 1932 – in fact it was just about back where it was in 1929. (Then, in 1937, FDR was persuaded the time had come to tighten things up, and the result was things going bad, which they didn’t want to call a depression, so they invented the word recession. 1938 was about where 1936 had been and 1940 was definitely better.
No president has ever been re-elected when things were worse than at the beginning of his term, but not all presidents ran from re-election.
I think the closest case may be 1808, when Thomas Jefferson had caused a bad economy with his “embargo” on trade both with Britain and with France. There are no real good statistics from that time, but I think wholesale price measures from that time reflect economic conditions and anyway we can tell from just general commentary. Jefferson did not run for re-election that year, in order to maintain or establish a two-term tradition but James Madison was elected as continuation. The reason this may have happened is that the Federalist Party was extremely weak, and unacceptable to most places in the country outside of New England.
Earlier a recession had caused a complete change of the form of government – in the 1780s. A convention to seek amendments broke up in 1786 then another was held in 1787 and they started a constitution from scratch. This was contrary to the terms of the constitution they were living under, but they argued that the “People” always had a right to change their system of laws. That’s why the Constitution starts with:
“We, the People”
Otherwise it was completely illegal.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 12:41 pmThere have been several economic downturns that started right after a president was elected. In 1837 (caused by Andrew Jackson suddenly demanding only specie to be used for buying land – this “hard money” policy caused a tremendous economic downturn – known as the Panic of 1837. He had also killed the Bank of the United States. Martin Van Buren was not re-elected in 1840.
That was maybe the last election in which the slavery issue basically paid no part – slavery became an issue because of John C Calhoun starting the argument that slavery was a positive good. Abolitionists (on a national level) had begun activity around 1835 but politics centered only around mobs attacking abolitionists (Lincoln’s 1838 speech was related to that)
or others (Mormons for instance also got attacked by lynch mobs) – or mail delivery to the south or acceptance of petitions.
The United States went through a spate of one term presidents when it was thought a president should only serve ONE term. that lasted from 1844 through the beginning of the Civil War. Rutherford B Hayes (sort of elected in 1876-7) was the last to pledge to serve only one term.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 12:43 pmThere was the panic of 1873, just after Grant’s re-election. He was not renominated in 1876 and the two term tradition was used as a kind of a reason. There were also scandals.
In 1893, just after Cleveland’s election to a second non-consecutive term, we had the Panic of 1893. Things were really bad. In 1896 people like him were called “Gold Democrats” and in a distinct minority. William Jennings Bryan got the nomination after his “Cross of Gold” speech and since that time the Democratic party has been economically liberal (of course now it’s only an inheritance) William McKinley was maybe half forced to win. The reason the economy got better after 1896 was because of the discovery of gold in the Transvaal South Africa) in 1897 and in Alaska in 1898. Under the gold standard that was the only way the money supply could expand. (In 1900, Bryan tried running on the issue if “imperialism”)
In 1913, there was the beginning of another serious depression, very bad so serious that Coxey was going to march again, but it was aborted by World War I.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 1:02 pmIn 1920, there was the Great Deflation. Wholesale prices peaked in May but it took till December for consumer prices to fail. At that time people did not analyze elections in terms of the economy. But it is true that Republicans (and Harding) won a large majority. The real depression was after the election. There was a recovery by 1922. Prices actually fell by about 45%. Harry S Truman’s haberdashery business is one of the businesses that went bankrupt during that period. After that, he got into politics.
In 1948 the thing that the do-nothing Congress was doing nothing about was inflation. But in October 1948 statistics came out. The inflation just vanished.
Economists don’t have a good explanation for that. Milton Friedman claimed that very low interest rates was tight money.
Really what happened was that inventory control broke down, and what I say is that since 1920, it’s been very difficult for inventory control to break down in a recession – it took a few years of the Great Depression to do that, and it is a break down of inventory control that used to cause prices to drop in a recession – this did not happen at all after 1957. But inventory control can break down during an expansion, as the production curve eventually gets steeper than the demand curve. This is what happened in 1948. A prolonged expansion finally put an end to inflation. There then was a recession occasioned by lower prices but it was aborted by the Korean War.
In 1960 there was also a mild economic downturn Kennedy said “let’s get this country moving again” and in a close election (involving some cheating and with 1 1/2 states not having Kennedy on the ballot so nobody knows who really won the popular vote) Kennedy was elected over Nixon.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 1:03 pmIn 1976 economic conditions were a little bit bad and Ford was defeated by Jimmy Carter who talked about a “misery index”. In 1980 things were worse and this was fully Jimmy carter’s fault because he had appointed Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Fed after first engineering the removal of his first appointee, William Miller, by appointing him Secretary of the Treasury and Volcker did exactly what Jimmy Carter wanted him to, which was raise interest rates. I know Volcker is some kind of a hero now, but his policy was wrong. He had to reverse himself when the prime rate reached 20% in March, 1980. The expansion under Reagan was much less than it should have been the first two years and in general less than it should have been. What saved things a little bit was that oil prices dropped.
Inflation finally ended when interest rates were brought DOWN after the savings and loan scandal.
Recession or perception of recession helped cause Bush to lose in 1992.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 1:04 pmI think the link between the economy and presidential election results is exaggerated.
It is confounded by the fact that a president incompetent on the economy is probably also incompetent on other matters and also in politics and campaigning.
Bush I was really incompetent. He rose almost by accident, by successive appointments that were not based on merit, he was stupid in every job he had, and he got elected in 1988 by rather small arguments based on the true fact that Michael Dukakis was a liberal.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 1:06 pmComment by PC14 — 9/9/2012 @ 5:02 pm
Biker dude on right is an Ordained Minister, President AND a Troll. Let’s you know where he’s coming from.
He looks like one of the Viking guys in the Capital One ads.
Sammy Finkelman (d22d64) — 9/11/2012 @ 1:08 pmMEGO attack.
SPQR (26be8b) — 9/11/2012 @ 2:20 pmCOPYPASTA !!!!
JD (8f8df3) — 9/11/2012 @ 2:51 pmWonderful points altogether, you just gained a new reader. What would you suggest about your post that you simply made a few days ago? Any certain?
don't clik here (eeb296) — 9/21/2012 @ 5:21 am