And is ruthlessly lampooned by John Oliver of the Daily Show.

Absolutely brilliant.

[Posted by Karl]

The conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney, the first GOP non-incumbent to win the Iowa caucuses and New Hamsphire primary, is thisclose to being the party’s de facto presidential nominee.  The conventional wisdom is almost certainly right.  However, one of my New Year’s resolutions has been to question straight-line projections from the current situation.

So how could Romney lose the nomination at this point?  At a minimum, he would have to lose (or eke out a squeaky Iowa-esque win) in South Carolina.  Could that happen?  The latest poll from Insider Advantage has Romney ahead of Newt Gingrich by only two points.  That’s just one poll, but PPP has its Palmetto state poll due later today that may well show a competitive Mitt vs Newt race.

If Romney stumbled in South Carolina, the questions about his candidacy would linger and perhaps grow, depending on the degree of the stumble.  People would revisit his IA and NH wins and perhaps conclude they are more the product of divided opposition than any improvement in Mitt as a candidate.  They might worry about how much worse the Bain issue might play in a general election in the hands of the left.  They might think hard about whether 2012 is the year to nominate a high financier.

Romney is well ahead of Gingrich in Florida at the moment.  But a win (or very-near-win) in South Carolina might change those numbers.  Indeed, those numbers include Rick Santorum; if he dropped out, Romney would likely find himself in a tight race with Gingrich, whose favorables even now are second only to Romney’s in the Sunshine State.  If Gingrich beat Romney in Florida, Mitt would have a severe case of The Emepror’s New Electability.

I doubt all these dominoes would fall Newt’s way.  Romney is well-organized, well-funded, and has the establishment lining up for him.  Gingrich even now is a loose cannon capable of doing himself in, with loads of his own baggage.  Romney is a better fit for South Carolina than he was four years ago.  Other NotRomneys, including Santorum will likely stay in the race through Florida, allowing Romney a win in the fashion McCain won four years ago.

The conventional wisdom is that Mitt Romney, the first GOP non-incumbent to win the Iowa caucuses and New Hamsphire primary, is thisclose to being the party’s de facto presidential nominee.  The conventional wisdom is almost certainly right.  But if Romney was going to lose, this is probably how it would happen.

–Karl

Aaron has published a novel which is available on Amazon for Kindle and Kindle apps. He has details about it here:

I actually did the principal writing of it in 2006 and 2007, and since then I have been polishing it. And of course I think some “stage fright” kept me from releasing it. But I had begun to pitch the book to different publishers and I felt that the time to finally release it was now. This is in part because as time went on, certain parts of the novel started to get incredibly ironic. You will have a hard time believing that I wrote this before certain events in my life—except for the fact that it would have been physically impossible to have written it after those events.

That was enough to get me to spend $9.99. You can get it here or by searching for “Archangel Aaron Worthing” in the search box to the right. If you’re a Prime member and a Kindle owner, you can read it for free on your Kindle — but I spent the $9.99, to help Aaron out, and also because it allows me to read it on the phone and iPad.

[Posted by Karl]

As usual, you are positively encouraged to engage in sockpuppetry in this thread. The usual rules apply.

Please, be sure to switch back to your regular handle when commenting on other threads. I have made that mistake myself.

And remember: the worst sin you can commit on this thread is not being funny.

—

BuzzFeedPolitics presents “Mitt Romney’s 30 Biggest Fans.”  But I don’t see Jennifer Rubin or Jonathan S. Tobin, so I’m calling BS.

–Karl