New Hampshire Post-Mortem
[Posted by Karl]
Overall, a very good night for Mitt Romney, albeit one with lingering questions. As I write this, with over 90% reporting, Romney beat his 2008 vote total. Indeed, he beat John McCain’s 2008 vote total, although he likely will not beat McCain’s 2000 vote total.
Moreover, Romney has drawn Ron Paul as his biggest rival. (You know who that benefits?) The exit polling suggests that while Ron Paul won among those looking for a “true conservative,” the Paul 2012 demographic looks much like the Barack Obama 2008 demographic. For example, Paul won the 18-29 demo, the unmarried demo, the under $30,000 income demo, and the liberal demo. Although John Huntsman won among the 4% of the pool who were Democrats (Paul came in second with them), Paul won the Independent demo.
The immediate good news for Romney on that score is that Indies played a bigger role in NH than they did in 2008 (although the reportedly record overall turnout should be viewed in this context and be mildly worrying). That may be because the Democrat primary was a draw in ’08, more Paulians turned out or — given the demographic similarities — both. This will be less of a factor in closed primaries and in states generally more conservative than New Hampshire.
The longer-term good news on that front is that while Paul won 32% of the Indies, Romney won 29%. That’s important for someone whose main selling point is electability. On that score, 61% of GOP primary voters said they would be satisfied with Romney as the nominee, while none of his closest rivals musters a majority. 55% would not be satisfied if Ron Paul won, which is marginally better than Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum, most likely due to the overall tilt of New Hampshire and the relative lack of national scrutiny given to Paul.
Some television pundits pointed to exit polling showing that Romney won among late deciders as a sign the attacks by his rivals against his tenure at Bain Capital did not work. However, the 32% of the truly late deciders he won represents a drop from the 39% he won among those who decided earlier in January and a huge drop from the early deciders. The next ten days before the South Carolina primary will give a better indication whether the attacks on Bain are eating into Romney’s support.
I am already on record that most (although not all) of the attacks on Bain are misguided and diminish the Republicans making them. However, the left was going to launch these attacks early and often if Romney wins the nomination. The marginal loss is that Team Obama (media included) will package the more egregious comments from Gingrich and Perry into attack ads to legitimize the attacks with the casual voter. The marginal gain is that we will get to see Romney respond and at least some idea of how damaging such attacks are with Indies inclined to vote GOP.
–Karl
Ding!
Karl (5a613f) — 1/11/2012 @ 6:29 amI thought the takeaway was how poorly Senator Frothy did…
He doesn’t look electable at all when even the rapidly collapsing horrifically desperate deeply silly anti-capitalist Newt Gingrich eclipses him.
happyfeet (3c92a1) — 1/11/2012 @ 7:01 amI think Gingrich and now also Perry are officially jokes.
Gerald A (9d78e8) — 1/11/2012 @ 7:20 amNH has 44% Indies a higher than average complement. 50% of the voters were Republicans, 5% Democrats but something like 20% of all voters were refugees from Sauron’s empire.
So turnout for the Thugs looks normal but the regulars less interested than might have been expected.
How encouraging is Nor Laup’s bringing in the youth demographic? Monty:
“The welfare state’s primary purpose is to subsidize the last years of Americans’ lives, and the elderly are, after a lifetime of accumulation, better off than most Americans: In 2009, the net worth of households headed by adults ages 65 and older was a record 47 times that of households headed by adults under the age of 35 – a wealth gap that doubled just since 2005.”
gary gulrud (1de2db) — 1/11/2012 @ 8:04 amDeMint was on Laura this AM, turning his attention to the Senate races because “if we return the same people to the Senate, who we have in the WH isn’t going to matter.”
Enthusiasm.
gary gulrud (1de2db) — 1/11/2012 @ 8:09 amI’m not sure I see the wisdom in the rationalization that the Democrats are going to use stupid, false and defamatory arguments against a Republican candidate so it’s a good thing for us to try them out now. Everybody knows the Democrats will throw the kitchen sink at any Republican nominee. It’s not exactly breaking news.
To me it’s more revelatory about Perry and Gingrich, showing that they will either a) say or do anything in pursuit of personal goals even if it includes harming the chances of the party in ousting Obama or, b) they seriously do not understand how business works in this country due to a lack of private sector experience, not an attribute I am seeking in our next president.
Personally, I think it’s a combination of a+b.
The contrast of Obama using taxpayer money to fund temporary stimulus jobs at $350,000+ or throwing billions of taxpayer dollars down green energy rat holes versus risking private capital on struggling companies should be easy for a candidate to present.
The loan programs Perry sponsored as Ag Commissioner in Texas did not produce exactly stellar results, so this is not the type of activity he should be attacking.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 1/11/2012 @ 9:26 amI wonder what the doper demo split was. Did they ask?
Kevin M (563f77) — 1/11/2012 @ 9:48 am“I wonder what the doper demo split was.”
Kevin M. – Are the dopers all single issue voters like Ghost? If so, you’ve got your answer.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 1/11/2012 @ 10:25 amWell stated, daley… as usual.
Colonel Haiku (b486eb) — 1/11/2012 @ 10:35 amGingrich seems to be going kamikaze and Perry looks dumber every week. He has wrecked his chances for any national office.
Romney needs to work on his response to these attacks. His speech in NH was a good start. I never thought I would see a reference to NH as a not very conservative. Refugees from Massachusetts have done it and that is why Arizona fears California refugees. They don’t seem to learn. They flee leftist policies and then vote for them in their new home.
Mike K (9ebddd) — 1/11/2012 @ 4:59 pmDaley and Colonel thug are just pissed that Daddy Romney has decent competition.
Dohbiden (ef98f0) — 1/14/2012 @ 9:21 am