Univision Poll: GOP candidates and the Hispanic vote
[Posted by Karl]
Let’s break down the latest from Univision News:
According to the poll released Tuesday — one year before Election Day 2012 — registered Latino voters in the 21 states with the largest Latino populations prefer Obama over the top three GOP presidential candidates, Herman Cain, Mitt Romney, and Rick Perry by two-to-one margins. The president is up 65 percent to 22 percent on Cain, 67 percent to 24 percent on Romney, and a whopping 68 percent to 21 percent on Perry.
That will come as welcome news to the White House as the president prepares for what is shaping up to be a difficult reelection campaign. Obama’s numbers in the Univision News poll equal his performance with Latinos in 2008, when he won over two-thirds of the vote. Each GOP contender received less than the approximately 31 percent Latino support the 2008 GOP presidential nominee, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), received.
Latinos support Obama in greater numbers than the general voting public. Among registered voters nationwide, Obama holds the largest lead over Perry at 10 percent, with his edge over Romney at 9 percent. Cain, meanwhile, is within 6 percent of the president.
In general, polls more than 300 days out from an election have little predictive value at all. In particular, in November 2007, you can bet neither Obama nor McCain was drawing a big Hispanic vote, as neither was considered likely to be the nominee. After the primaries, Gallup had Obama leading McCain by 62% to 29% with the Hispanic vote, but an AP-Yahoo News poll found Obama leading McCain 47% to 22%, and the Pew Hispanic Center had Obama leading McCain among Hispanics by 66% to 23%. (The Pew report also noted Obama lost the Latino vote to Hillary Clinton by a nearly two-to-one ratio in the Democrat primaries, which underscores the point about early polling.)
In short, McCain ultimately performed at the high end of the Summer 2008 polling range with Hispanics, despite the fact that a financial panic intervened between those polls and the election. Although we will never know for sure, such numbers suggest even the Summer 2008 polling tended to understate McCain’s support among Hispanics. Whether the same would be true of next year’s GOP nominee remains to be seen, but Obama’s sliding job approval numbers among Hispanics suggests it might.
Also note Univision’s numbers for the general voting public do not line up well with national polling. That’s an artifact of the states Univision polled. It makes sense to poll the states with the largest Hispanic populations to measure Hispanic voting, e.g., California, Illinois, New York, Texas, etc. However, the general sample for that method is going to skew to favor the Democrat.
Given that the GOP is not likely to win states like California, New York and Illinois in 2012, the real story continues to be Team Obama’s efforts to mine Hispanic votes in swing states out west. On that point, it is interesting that in the key state of Colorado, the 2008 vote did not depend on liberal migration, and may have depended on taking the Starbucks approach to the campaign. That’s probably why Obama is investing early and often in his ground operations.
–Karl
Ding!
Karl (f8f210) — 11/10/2011 @ 6:26 amIs there going to be a Hispanic-focused primary debate? That, I might watch, just to hear the mis-pronounced pandering. I’m guessing, but Perry must have a few words of Spanish, right? Can any of them sing “Guadalajara?”
carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/10/2011 @ 7:02 amCue the Ted Kennedy tape.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/10/2011 @ 7:18 amIn CA:
Obama: 45%
Generic Republican 41%
Obama: approve 49%, disapprove 48%
Strong approve: 20%, strong disapprove: 37%
Rasmussen 11-08-11
Kevin M (563f77) — 11/10/2011 @ 8:51 amObama says a lot of gaffes but Palin is so dumb she might send the bombs after us and is racist against mexicans?
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 8:55 amHerman Cain is gone he refuses to fire Mark Block.
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 9:05 amDohBiden – Racist. You just want to keep the black man and the dirty Mexicans down.
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/10/2011 @ 9:11 amThe left elected Obama because he is a commie.
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 9:59 amObama intelligent?
Does making gaffes seem intelligent to you leftys?
Oh wait don’t answer that.
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 10:00 amHow do you translate all of Obumbal’s pauses, mumbles, and evidence of brain-lock when not using TOTUS into Spanish?
AD-RtR/OS! (0345ac) — 11/10/2011 @ 10:22 amHow long before someone comes forward and say Moomoo Michelle sexually harassed them?
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 10:24 amThe left piss me off with their anti-jewish stereotypes but yet if you call George Soros a slimy money obsessed jew they scream about bigotry.
The left think anyone who opposes illegal immigration are natvists.
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 11:10 amYou what is ironic, there was one candidate back in 2008, who nearly went broke, had to fire his staff, because of his pursuit of amnesty for illegals, yet
narciso (0fc95f) — 11/10/2011 @ 12:00 pmwho did my paisans go for, the ‘Si se puede’ which
it turns out, ‘no se puede hacer’
Republicans need to emphasize the conservative family and religious values that the majority of Hispanics share. They also need to fully focus on the disastrous effects of the first term of Barack Obama.
Some day – sooner than later, it is hoped – our brothers of Hispanic heritage will realize that they are no different from the rest of the Democrat constituency, in that they are kept on “The Plantation” for a reason and that reason is to further the Democrat power grab/expansion of The State.
ColonelHaiku (09a0f9) — 11/10/2011 @ 12:19 pm.
So Obama is popular amongst the Hispanic “Oprah” watching public….
Gee, whoodathunkit?
.
Smock Puppet, Jingle Rewriting Expert (2fb1c2) — 11/10/2011 @ 12:30 pmMostly “este” and “pues.”
carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/10/2011 @ 12:45 pmCarlitos – lots of yo and mi too.
JD (9f5519) — 11/10/2011 @ 1:05 pmLOL
carlitos (49ef9f) — 11/10/2011 @ 1:53 pmi will tell you right now Romney cannot win in Colorado.
wheeler's cat (834485) — 11/10/2011 @ 4:18 pmWe hate the polygs.
No mormon can win in Colorado.
Ewwww! Looks like someone puked. Cleanup on isle nineteen.
/stat
Leonardo DaFinchi (cf3f16) — 11/10/2011 @ 8:32 pmIllegals commit crimes
Lexhamfox-That is a smear.
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 8:36 pm“We hate the polygs.”
nishi – Do you mean Muslims, you bigot?
daleyrocks (bf33e9) — 11/10/2011 @ 8:36 pmGiuliani was not great but he’d throw the OWS scum out.
DohBiden (ef98f0) — 11/10/2011 @ 8:53 pmi mean colorado voters hate the polygs, that is what the locals call mormons. And yes it is not a term of endearment.
wheeler's cat (834485) — 11/11/2011 @ 5:14 amMost people in colorado have little or no experience of muslims, and besides no muslims are running for president.
im sayin’ if Colorado is part of Romneys strat to win the presidency, he cant.
Colorado wont elect a mormon.
Never did understand why Hispanics voted that way. Uncontrolled immigration is costing existing, legal immigrants jobs. Obama has destroyed more jobs since he took office than any president in recent memory, and liberals openly mock the religious. Why is it they continue to vote for Democrats, anyway?
But then again, I never understood the Jewish vote, either.
bobdog (166386) — 11/11/2011 @ 5:20 amPretty much the same reasons the Irish did so a century ago.
Michael Ejercito (64388b) — 11/11/2011 @ 11:43 amComment by bobdog — 11/11/2011 @ 5:20 a
Uncontrolled immigration is costing existing, legal immigrants jobs.
Not true, and no serious economist could believe that.
Jobs are proportional to the number of people looking for work. If that’s not true, there’s a lot of history you won’t be able to explain.
If that’s not true, women starting to work more should have caused male unemployment.
If that’s not true, mandatory retirement is an excellent policy for creating jobs for young people.
If that’s not true, abolishing racial discrimination should have caused a decline in white wages and employment.
If that’s not true, economists should not factor in future population in estimating the number of people who will have jobs, yet everyone knows it would be idiotic to project future Social Security revenues without trying to predict population.
Sammy Finkelman (3a0ae4) — 11/11/2011 @ 12:00 pmWe do have higher and lower unemployment rates at times, but what that reflects is the average length of time it takes to get work, plus structural factors like skills and discrimination (not just racial and the like but things like discriminating against people without college degrees or who have been unemployed a long time.
The latter problem could be considerably mitigated by reducing the number of jobs coverd by the minimum wage and, in so doing, creating many jobs with a high turnover.
Sammy Finkelman (3a0ae4) — 11/11/2011 @ 12:04 pm