Patterico's Pontifications

11/6/2011

2012 will be brutal? So what?

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 8:45 am



[Posted by Karl]

I don’t mean to pick on the AP’s Charles Babington; his latest just happens to contain two pieces of conventional wisdom on the 2012 election worth discussing:

The jobless rate will stand at levels that have not led to a president’s re-election since the Great Depression. Largely because of that, Obama will run a much more negative campaign, his aides acknowledge, even if it threatens to demoralize some supporters who were inspired by his 2008 message of hope.

***

With the economy struggling and Obama hemmed in legislatively, his advisers sometimes say the election will be a choice between the president and his challenger, rather than a referendum on the administration’s performance.

“That’s a very genteel way of saying ‘Were going to rip your face off,'” said Dan Schnur, a former aide to McCain and other Republicans, and now a politics professor at the University of Southern California. Obama has little choice but to try to portray the GOP alternative as worse than his own disappointing record, Schnur said.

First, research does not bear out the idea that negative campaigning is an effective means of winning votes, but it does tend to boost turnout a bit.  The conventional wisdom gets this exactly backwards.

Second, on the claims of people like David Axelrod that 2012 will be a choice, not a referendum on Obama, Larry Sabato replies: “Wrong. It will be both–a titanic struggle between election theories.”  But even that is likely an overstatement.  According to data from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, more than 2/3 Obama supporters are voting for Obama, while over 2/3 Romney and Perry supporters are voting against Obama.  Pew data shows the same amount of focus on the incumbent in 1992, 1996 and 2004.  Although that Pew report identifies this pattern in the early stages of a presidential reelection campaign, a prior Pew report showed this pattern largely holding throughout 2004.

Obama and his cronies can fling all the mud they like; they will have difficulty finding an issue that neutralizes a weak economy.

–Karl

62 Responses to “2012 will be brutal? So what?”

  1. Ding!

    Karl (f8f210)

  2. Choice: No hope or no change.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  3. The Economy will be so awful it will be the backdrop, the broken and toppled Greek columns, the air we breathe.

    War and rumors of war will be rumbling, governments falling while others never see the light of day.

    Global inflation breaks into a trot.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  4. The tactics of those on the left aren’t limited to being employed on politicians.

    Read down in the thread and see how an administrator/moderator employs his inner-Ron Bryn:

    http://xwebforums.org/showthread.php?t=15384

    ColonelHaiku (fbf87d)

  5. The fall of Europe will lead to a similar fall here with riots in the streets. We have already seen it with the government-back Occupy Movement. There is a mob element going on. Ann Coulter was ahead of her time.

    AZ Bob (4062ec)

  6. Amen AZ and when Obama cruises in for a 2nd term and does away with the constitution and becomes president for life you can blame the egotistical perrybots.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  7. Given the venom and vitriol from the Left since Reagan, Bork, Bush, etal, the idea that their decision to go nasty negative as being a surprise, or a result of circumstances, is laughable. It is what they do.

    JD (395555)

  8. The left will stop at nothing to obtain power too bad for the useful idiots who support them.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  9. Watch out for a Reichstag fire

    great unknown (eb39c8)

  10. Won’t take much to change the iconic Obama graphic from HOPE to HATE.

    Kevin M (563f77)

  11. JD is right. How much nastier can they get than what they did to W? Obama whines about how little co-operation he’s getting (clearly forgetting his “We Won!” brush-off), but it’s mild and normal opposition compared to the full-court press they gave Bush.

    Kevin M (563f77)

  12. or from Obama to “Occupy”, Kevin.

    ColonelHaiku (fbf87d)

  13. It may very well be Obama’s incessant whining that sets this campaign apart from others.

    ColonelHaiku (fbf87d)

  14. It makes me angry that the left can lie and get away with it.

    I mean these same pieces of shat say Gorebull warming does cause Ice to break away and form bigger chunks of ice.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  15. Gotta love the newtbots now accusing us of wanting to be the USSR.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  16. Oh now they are accusing us of being in cahoots with the OWS………..keep it up you will alienate everyone Newtturds.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  17. It will be brutal for everyone but the media’s chosen one who will waltz about the country on our money while grinning like the cat who swallowed the canary.

    kansas (25c4c7)

  18. Negative campaigns are how it’s always been done.In fact Mccain might have ahd a way better shot had he can negative, but he and his campaign staff stupidly choose not to do so. Obama got a free ride in 2008; it hsould not be so in 2012.

    And the “people hate negative campaigns” MSM stock stories are as old. Whether anyone likes it or not, negative campaigning works to a degree and it will always be with us.

    Bugg (ea1809)

  19. It might be brutal but Michelle Obama will be grnning like the cat that ate at the all you can eat buffet.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  20. The candidates should be hammering Obama non-stop on the economy. They should not let up for a second, but unfortunately they seem to allow themselves to be manipulatively pitted against each other by the media and as a result, end up doing themselves a disservice with distracting and superfluous arguments. Focus on the failed Obama economy, lack of job growth, and inform voters continuously of their individual plans to rectify the situation (including entitlement reforms)…

    It seems especially now with the Occupy movements and Obama’s failed economy, there couldn’t be a better set-up for the R’s to make headway.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  21. The OWS participants, and their non-leadership, need to be reminded of the reaction of the Korea-town shop-owners during the Rodney King inspired “rebellion”, and of the actions of that developer protecting his building last week in Oakland.
    We are not Europe, and rioters and looters will be met with force.
    Darwin Award Winners will be noted in the papers.

    AD-RtR/OS! (cc4610)

  22. But the left will come back with the witty rejoiner it was bush’s fault when in actuality the Dems and RINOS both are to blame.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  23. Gotta love the newtbots

    It seems like just yesterday no one cared.

    Kevin M (563f77)

  24. BTW, if Obama is going to go so negative, what’s the point in nominating a centrist? If even Romney is going to be painted as a turn-back-the-clock troglodyte why don’t we NOMINATE someone with some cojones?

    Kevin M (563f77)

  25. Trogs of the World – Unite!

    AD-RtR/OS! (cc4610)

  26. if Obama is remembered as desperate nasty and petulant then that’s just proper and if Wall Street Romney wins he’d be a monumental idiot to think that it meant people liked or respected him

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  27. If Mahmoud Ahmadummerjihad died of a drug overdose Oblowme would take credit saying he force fed him the drugs.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  28. And yes harming islamic ego via waterboarding is a violation to democracy……………..dhimmi Obot idiots.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  29. that was sarcasm by the way the first part.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  30. I totally disagree with the idea negative campaigning doesn’t work. See Reid – Angle for example.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  31. Negative campaigning works best when you have nothing to say for yourself. Like Reid. Like Obama.

    But it turns people off, and if the other guy has lots to say that’s positive and well-received, they negative guy can be made to look like a jerk. I believe the phrase is “There you go again!”

    Kevin M (563f77)

  32. The Democrats’ campaign slogan: “Yeah, we suck, but the Republicans are worse.”

    It might not work very well, because the problem for President Obama is that when the Democrats claim that the Republicans would be even worse, the natural response is, “How much worse could they be?”

    I didn’t think that any President could match Jimmy Carter’s record for ineptitude, but Barack Obama has proved me wrong.

    The realistic Dana (3e4784)

  33. Negative campaigning works best when you have nothing to say for yourself.

    It works best when you significantly outspend your opponent or when the media’s portrayal of your opponent coincides with yours. There’s a good chance both will happen next year.

    Gerald A (9d78e8)

  34. dana

    Looks like Cain is surging, if he wins Iowa with 40% – I think it would be hard to topple him.

    EricPWJohnson (d84fb0)

  35. The irony of you commenting about Cain in a thread about how nasty the elections are going to be should cause your head to assplode.

    JD (207300)

  36. liberals consider acknowledging reality against Obama to be negative, that’s where Babington is coming from.

    narciso (0fc95f)

  37. annnd Fox news is saying a 4th woman is coming forward with Gloria Aldred

    not…. my….. doing….

    EricPWJohnson (d84fb0)

  38. Stop . . . trying . . . to . . . hide . . . out . . . here

    Respond . . . to . . . the . . . post . . . in . . . other . . . thread

    Icy (bd2739)

  39. I need a MP3 of a loon, for every time this character posts, Icy. Jeez.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  40. Maybe this will be epwj’s rape victim that he keeps yammering on and on about.

    JD (207300)

  41. Super Glo involvement certainly adds credibility to lynching meme, heh. Gloria last seen trying to take down Meg Whitman’s gubernatorial run with oppressed nanny story based on bogus paperwork completed by oppressed nanny. Credibility is always Job No. 1 for Super Glo.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  42. Right after finding the nearest microphone.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  43. Allred, surely a sign the shark has been sodomized.

    In actual news, via Rantburg and Forbes, China’s real estate market is to lose 50% on a notional value of $25 Trillion.

    Have a nice day!

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  44. Saying they didn’t really need the money, Italy cancels its auction of 3 month notes. Coincidentally, the yield on their 10 year bill hit 6.66% where the street says 7% is ass to the wall.

    The good news is Spain is in worse shape, Italy is just sexier.

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  45. Ah, Spain they were the ones who went whole hog into the flu. . .I mean clean energy gambit, what could go wrong?

    narciso (0fc95f)

  46. Comment by EricPWJohnson — 11/7/2011 @ 6:39 am

    Looks like Cain is surging, if he wins Iowa with 40% – I think it would be hard to topple him.

    No, Cain is now starting to drop in the polls.

    He was never going to get 40% (assume 25% plus 1/7 and you are at about 28-29%) and one state will not make or break a candidate. This is different from it looiking like a candidate is going nowehgere.

    They all drop out too soon. Maybe this will happen less now.

    And this year the Republican party has far ess winner take all primarfies than it did last time (The Republican party tends to abide by state law – the Democratic party not so)

    Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb)

  47. Comment by The realistic Dana — 11/7/2011 @ 5:41 am

    I didn’t think that any President could match Jimmy Carter’s record for ineptitude, but Barack Obama has proved me wrong.

    He hasn’t. Obama is not anywhere near that inept – he’s paralyzed.

    Obama does not want to go against any Democratic Party shibboleths – many of which are also campaign promises or related to them – unless he can get repubvlicans to go against 2 or 3 of their own fopr every one of his.

    And actually it is not just Democratic Party shibboleths – but just about anybody’s. He doesn’t mind, of course, picking on something that only Republicans love (like no new taxes)

    (like not raiusing taxes

    Sammy Finkelman (d3daeb)

  48. And not to be outdone by pipsqueak Greece is CA:

    http://unionwatch.org/public-sector-pensions-investing-in-hedge-funds/

    Hedges have been seeing 25% redemptions of late cause they’re losing their client’s shirts.

    Calpers projects 7.75% expectated earnings with the Treasury paying 3% on 30 year Bills and where a 1.0% shortfall means a 10% increase in payroll tax to cover.

    Why do any of ye still live in that god-forsaken borehole?

    gary gulrud (d88477)

  49. Sammy,

    Its all about perception, Romney knows that he needs everyone to stay in and split the NOT MITT vote.

    Not going to happen if Cain runs away with it

    EricPWJohnson (d84fb0)

  50. Gonna continue to ignore me?

    That’s okay. Your silence speaks volumes.

    Icy (bd2739)

  51. “Obama does not want to go against any Democratic Party shibboleths”

    Sammy – Extending the Bush tax cuts while he still had control of both the House and Senate certainly went against Obama’s campaign promises as well as Democratic Party shibboleths.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  52. Mr Finkelman claimed that President Obama isn’t as bad as President Carter was, but at least our 39th President had the Camp David Peace Accords to his credit, while our 44th simply has the Oscar Nobel for Projected Lifetime Achievement.

    I hear that the Nobel Committee wants it back.

    The snarky Dana (3e4784)

  53. If Bialek was sexually harrassed than why was she hugging Cain like he was her bestest friend?

    DohBiden (ef98f0)

  54. Cain IS A FRAUD A NARCISSIST AND A LIAR

    That is projection Cain haters.

    DohBiden (ef98f0)

  55. “The candidates should be hammering Obama non-stop on the economy. ”

    No, some Republican candidate needs to come up with something other than the “cut all govt funding for anything but the military so we can give corporations and the wealthy another tax cut so they can invest in corporations in India and China or maybe hedge funds…..oh and uh create more jobs in America too…somehow…” plan.

    Tax Cuts 😀 !!!! cheese is really really stale these days so it doesn’t go down real smooth anymore.

    Since Obama is obviously a “manchurian candidate” for any large corporate or union vested interest that wants nothing to change, any Republican who comes up with something that is not that and, at the same time, not the same old tired worthless “trickle down” tax cut blibber blabber will spark some interest in independents and maybe even the disenchanted.
    With the crop of anti-science loonies, flip floppers, born again dingbats, and carnival shills being presented by the Republican party as serious candidates who to vote for?
    9-9-9 Cain? Nope, coz he’s 9-9-9 Cain and he wasn’t joking.
    Ron Paul? If I could hide the fact that I voted for him from my wife who vowed serious repercussions I might go all Paultard just because he seems to make both Dems and Reps really really nervous.
    Buddy Roemer or Gary Jonson? Too “liberal” right? So I won’t get to vote for them.

    EdWood (ac1035)

  56. Oh yeah, and John Huntsman, yet another guy who seems to not be a flip flopping nut-cake but is being ignored by everyone right now.

    EdWood (ac1035)

  57. Maybe titosa and edwood could hook up and regale everyone with the tales of the great Jon Huntsman. With Ed’s support, huntsman has moved from 1.8% polling to 1.81%.

    JD (207300)

  58. “cut all govt funding for anything but the military so we can give corporations and the wealthy another tax cut so they can invest in corporations in India and China or maybe hedge funds”

    Ed – I think you missed the part where so much of Obama’s stimulus money and green jobs incentives actually went to places like China, Finland, Russia and the pockets of wealthy campaign contributors, you know, the traditional Chicago Way.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  59. Daleyrocks,
    Re: your point “much of Obama’s stimulus money and green jobs incentives actually went to places like China, Finland, Russia”

    Nope, I didn’t miss that point, that’s one reason why I’m shopping Republican this year.

    Like I said above,
    “…Obama is obviously a “manchurian candidate” for any large corporate or union vested interest that wants nothing to change…”

    So, is there a candidate out there who won’t just turn into a Republican version of Prez Obama with a slightly different set of cronies or is fed and state politics these days just a double headed wooden nickle?

    EdWood (c2268a)

  60. Ed – Do you own research. The Republicans want to cut that kind of spending, but the Dems won’t let them.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  61. Daleyrocks,

    In the process of doing my own research. Right now all I see Republicans wanting to cut is taxes, any kind of funding for oversight (EPA), science (NSF), social services blah blah blah. Hoping to find some real plan out there that doesn’t come attached to some idiotic big government laws that regulate people’s personal lives (marriage, drugs, abortions and all those other culture war hustles).

    EdWood (c2268a)


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