Patterico's Pontifications

9/23/2011

Revenge of the Son of Stimulus

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 10:24 am



[Posted by Karl]

Two stories about the Democrats’ current dire woes suggest that Pres. Obama’s “Son of Stimulus” bill will likely advantage the GOP.

First, Politico features general weeeping and wailing from Democrats about House elections:

Interviews with more than two dozen operatives and House members in both parties reveal that the cautious optimism of the spring has given way to a more grim view of the hurdles facing Democrats in 2012 — an unpopular president on the ballot; scores of vulnerable Republican incumbents bolstered by redistricting; free-spending, GOP-allied independent groups that will outpace their newer Democratic counterparts; and long-standing historical election trends…

“I’m glad the election’s not today,” said Democratic pollster Keith Frederick, a veteran of House races. “Every poll shows independents losing their patience for the president. These House elections tend to get nationalized, and there’s no doubt right now that as a referendum on Barack Obama, House Democrats lose.”…

“It didn’t have to be this way,” said another House Democrat who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Obama’s presidency has fizzled. It’s going to be every person for himself in 2012. There just won’t be any coattails, and any effect he does have on the ballot will hurt us.”

Their big hope is that the GOP nominates someone “off the edge,” like Rick Perry, instead of Mitt Romney.  Presumably, they have not seen the latest Democracy Corps polling:

One of the Democratic party’s leading pollsters released a survey of 60 Republican-held battleground districts today painting an ominous picture for Congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms, being dragged down by an unpopular president who would lose to both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.

Pollster Stan Greenberg released the poll with some sugary spin for Democrats, downplaying the results by arguing that the president’s jobs plan will improve the party’s fortunes.

So much for Perry as the Great Democratic Hope.  Moreover, Greenberg’s argument about “Son of Stimulus” is sugary spin.  If you download the charts (.pdf) from Democracy Corps, you will find the argument for Obama’s so-called jobs bill (pp. 34-35) rests on selling the tax cuts and incentives for business.  Mediscare and education cuts shift more votes for Dems than class warfare (p. 40).  In contrast, tax cuts and attacks on regulations work best for the GOP (p. 43)(more proof that intensity favors the GOP on taxes).

Although Obama has been demanding Congress pass “Son of Stimulus,” Congress seems poised to pass something else.  Given the Democratic opposition to Obama’s bill, the most likely product will conatain the payroll tax cuts for businesses and employees, offset by spending cuts, with out the porkulus or the tax hikes on “the rich” (which even Chuck Schumer does not like at the $200/250K level).  Obama will then have the choice of vetoing it and looking like a far-left ideologue or going along, which would boost GOP incumbents in swing districts and force him to pivot to Mediscare earlier in the campaign than he might like.  Like Dr. Frankenstein, Obama has unleashed a “Son of Stimulus” that likely will not have all the parts he planned and turn into a threat, instead of an achievement.

–Karl

46 Responses to “Revenge of the Son of Stimulus”

  1. The Democrats Best Hop is O’Romney

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  2. The Democrats best hope is O’Romney

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  3. He’s awake^2! Khaaaaaaaaat!

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  4. EricPWJohnson,

    Political scientists will also tell you that GHWBush would have done even better against Carter than Reagan did. Maybe the GOP will see it that way this year… but if they were going to, Mitt probably woulda had a lock on the nomination already.

    Karl (f07e38)

  5. “The best laid schemes o’ mice an’ men / Gang aft agley.”

    Oh, Boo Hoo!

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (ab2eca)

  6. Karl

    Its the case of a too polished debater Romney vs a sitting governor who doesnt have the gift of Gab

    Romney is polling poorly according to some people – I dont know – I turned the debate off after a few minutes when I saw that it was another goofy lets talk about social issues while rome is burning

    This morning on Fox I get the gist of it, boy romney looked good, man Perry is a dope, no wait – WTF did Romney say? WHAT Perry didnt sign a dream act for Texas its been the law since 1971? WTF? Santorums kids got out of state tuition to the tune of 68K per year while living in another state?

    Fox news is suddenly finding out Romney did change his book?

    This keeps on – if Perry just slips a point or two contributors for Romney have got to realize three chances with softball questions from moderators and help from 3 or 4 others on the podiums and he still couldnt plant one?

    Dog aint hunting

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  7. I mean how many times must a guy get his ass beat for weeks and still lead in the polls?

    Romney – how much did you spend?

    Who paid for those condos in California and Florida?

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  8. Romney condos are starting to sound like Palin oil fees. OCD is something a lot of people have.

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  9. i think the cool hand Luke is coming in. Perry has taken the worst beating any politician i think that I can remember except Nixon, and defends DECISIONS he has made. His have a heart is Texan for F@#K off ASSW@#PES which is what he should have said.

    Let the vapors overtake the gentlry while a leader says and ya know what we’re spending to damn much!

    Romney I hear is coming out with a 3,476 point counter step 12 phase implementation plan to reduce spending….. $1.78

    uh boy good times…

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  10. the cautious optimism of the spring

    what were they thinking?

    happyfeet (a55ba0)

  11. carlitos

    Palin koolaid addiction counseling is available at all Gander Mountain and Discovery Store Locations.

    Its a simple step that requires thumb sucking, 2by4 corrective behavioral conditioning, and a book – how not to fall for the big hearted woman who raises taxes and spending.

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  12. Let the vapors overtake the gentlry

    I’m pretty sure that this was the name of an album by either Biz Markie or Aliotta Haynes and Jeremiah. I heard some of the tunes when I was on hold to Korea at an international investment seminar in Dubai.

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  13. EPWJ, look we know she ran over your dog. Get over it and quit displaying your pathology across the internet.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  14. Happy,

    And next week when the polls show Perry still in the lead…

    Maybe they will just tie the guy up and beat the living crap out of Anita while he watches

    I mean, hey lets not ask Romney about his residency and millions in back taxes he had to pay in 2002 right – I mean that doesnt matter does it?

    Or ask Santorum what the hell was he thinking when he won his first race by rightly pointing that his opponent lived outide the district then left PA and never resided there?

    No lets just keep beatin rick till his innrds show because instate tuition is what is leading the issues of today (even though all states have done it)

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  15. EPWJ – your projection is pretty creepy.

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  16. Well, projection and other obvious issues.

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  17. I’m a Sock Puppet, d*mn it, I must be heard!!

    Mr. Sock Puppet (6451eb)

  18. http://www.collegeboard.com/about/association/international/pdf/sr_PA01.pdf

    Um Senator Santorum?

    Noncitizens who have indicated by formal action their intention to become U.S. citizens or who have been admitted to the U.S. on an immigrant visa are eligible for classification as a Pennsylvania resident on the same basis as a U.S. citizen.

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  19. WTF does that have to do with the stimulus, you khat-addled retard?

    [note: released from moderation. –Stashiu]

    carlitos (49ef9f)

  20. WTF is he bibble-babbling about now? Maybe he should give Gov Rick a call on his cell, and give him some advise. Where in the world does he come up with his idiocy du jour?

    JD (ac417f)

  21. ‘HE really seems to care, about what I have no idea’

    ian cormac (ed5f69)

  22. If Gov Rick won’t take your calls, Kim Jong—-l should be getting up any time now.

    JD (0b8a2b)

  23. He does not “look like” a far left ideologue, Karl. He is a far left ideologue.

    JD (17012e)

  24. Ian…nice Rodney D. reference. Always appreciated.

    navyvet (db5856)

  25. As commenters seem stuck OT, I have a new Perry thread up.

    Karl (f07e38)

  26. Ah yes everything a muslim does which is prescribed by the koran gives all muslims a bad name……………really pathetic in your spineless dhimmitude.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  27. Sarah gives EPWJ a special kind of “stimulus”

    Icy Texan (3d8396)

  28. EPWJ–We all know you’re a man of the world. Ever think of doing some hiking in Iran?

    elissa (d12c8b)

  29. I’m saying that to no one in particular.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  30. Now to be back on tpoic the experts say the stimulus worked………..so Obama says it is.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  31. “The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms”

    Oh, come on! Next they’ll say the Sun is responsible for global warming!

    The so-lib Indies I know, voting for a change in 2008, are still in a spitting fury about the GOP, but they are resigned to disenfranchisement.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  32. “Noncitizens who have indicated by formal action their intention to become U.S. citizens”

    EPWJ – Texas has the same kind of BS, a formal representation on a form.

    WTF does it mean if the person is in the country illegally?

    Oh yeah, Ima gonna be a legal citizen some time if they let me. Doan tell anybody Ima illegal though, cuz they’ll deport me.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  33. “Noncitizens who have indicated by formal action their intention to become U.S. citizens”

    First thing you gotta do is change the sound of your last name, know what I’m sayin’.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  34. “Noncitizens who have indicated by formal action their intention to become U.S. citizens”

    Just get in line over there ahead of those people who have followed the legal process to become citizens.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  35. “Ever think of doing some hiking in Iran?”

    elissa – Some tune up hikes in traffic here might be in order first.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  36. That bridge in Cleveland is functionally obsolete. It is not in need of repair.

    But Obama has to go for the fear factor: if you don’t pass my bill this bridge will fall down and you will die!

    Amphipolis (b120ce)

  37. If that bridge falls, I hope President Millstone is standing under it.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (ab2eca)

  38. Eric HAS done some hiking in Iran . . .

    eatin’ trail mix and a-countin’ them Jews.

    Icy Texan (3d8396)

  39. Mahmoud Abbas and Mahmoud Ahmagoatraper deserve each other.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  40. The big disappointment looking ahead is that nothing much seems to be happening on primarying GOP Senators.

    OTOH, Seems Johnson and Toomey are gravitating to the Dark Side.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  41. Eric also went over to Bawney Fwanks brothel.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  42. The economy is collapsing but we must give money to teh schools or black peoplez will riot.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  43. doh

    can I use you frequent customer card?

    EricPWJohnson (e83e82)

  44. The DJIA closed today at 10771.48 –
    this is the lowest Friday Close for 2011!

    Heaven Help Us.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (ab2eca)

  45. “Obama’s presidency has fizzled.”–Some Dem

    Gee, ya think?

    It is nice to see that a few Dems are actually smart enough to notice. They’re usually so low functioning that they can’t pick up on those sort of things.

    Dave Surls (28f866)

  46. It is nice to see that a few Dems are actually smart enough to notice. They’re usually so low functioning that they can’t pick up on those sort of things.

    Don’t worry, I’m sure the Liberal Midnight Reset Button has since done its work. I’m sure he’s back drooling and fawning over everything The Great Big 0 is doing Once More.

    IgotBupkis, President, United Anarchist Society (c9dcd8)


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