[Posted by Karl]
Two stories about the Democrats’ current dire woes suggest that Pres. Obama’s “Son of Stimulus” bill will likely advantage the GOP.
First, Politico features general weeeping and wailing from Democrats about House elections:
Interviews with more than two dozen operatives and House members in both parties reveal that the cautious optimism of the spring has given way to a more grim view of the hurdles facing Democrats in 2012 — an unpopular president on the ballot; scores of vulnerable Republican incumbents bolstered by redistricting; free-spending, GOP-allied independent groups that will outpace their newer Democratic counterparts; and long-standing historical election trends…
“I’m glad the election’s not today,” said Democratic pollster Keith Frederick, a veteran of House races. “Every poll shows independents losing their patience for the president. These House elections tend to get nationalized, and there’s no doubt right now that as a referendum on Barack Obama, House Democrats lose.”…
“It didn’t have to be this way,” said another House Democrat who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Obama’s presidency has fizzled. It’s going to be every person for himself in 2012. There just won’t be any coattails, and any effect he does have on the ballot will hurt us.”
Their big hope is that the GOP nominates someone “off the edge,” like Rick Perry, instead of Mitt Romney. Presumably, they have not seen the latest Democracy Corps polling:
One of the Democratic party’s leading pollsters released a survey of 60 Republican-held battleground districts today painting an ominous picture for Congressional Democrats in 2012. The poll shows Democratic House candidates faring worse than they did in the 2010 midterms, being dragged down by an unpopular president who would lose to both Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.
Pollster Stan Greenberg released the poll with some sugary spin for Democrats, downplaying the results by arguing that the president’s jobs plan will improve the party’s fortunes.
So much for Perry as the Great Democratic Hope. Moreover, Greenberg’s argument about “Son of Stimulus” is sugary spin. If you download the charts (.pdf) from Democracy Corps, you will find the argument for Obama’s so-called jobs bill (pp. 34-35) rests on selling the tax cuts and incentives for business. Mediscare and education cuts shift more votes for Dems than class warfare (p. 40). In contrast, tax cuts and attacks on regulations work best for the GOP (p. 43)(more proof that intensity favors the GOP on taxes).
Although Obama has been demanding Congress pass “Son of Stimulus,” Congress seems poised to pass something else. Given the Democratic opposition to Obama’s bill, the most likely product will conatain the payroll tax cuts for businesses and employees, offset by spending cuts, with out the porkulus or the tax hikes on “the rich” (which even Chuck Schumer does not like at the $200/250K level). Obama will then have the choice of vetoing it and looking like a far-left ideologue or going along, which would boost GOP incumbents in swing districts and force him to pivot to Mediscare earlier in the campaign than he might like. Like Dr. Frankenstein, Obama has unleashed a “Son of Stimulus” that likely will not have all the parts he planned and turn into a threat, instead of an achievement.