Patterico's Pontifications

8/20/2011

You know who Perry’s campaign benefits?

Filed under: 2012 Election — Karl @ 12:15 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Many of you know the punchline to the joke is: Mitt Romney.

Justin Hart, who worked for Romney in the 2008 campaign and stll lists himself as Co-Chair of Romey’s Faith and Values Committee, ostensibly wants to make that case, when his real argument is that TX Gov. Rick Perry has yet to be vetted on the national stage and Perry’s inevitable errors, gaffes, and foibles will leave Mitt triumphant.

At the outset, I want to stress that his point about vetting is important.  There is a reason why the GOP tends to nominate the person who is “next in line.”  Running for president is not an easy thing.  Having done it before means you have built a network of grassroots contacts, donors, consultants, and so on.  Presumably, the candidate may have learned lessons about not only strategy and tactics, but about our complex country and the people whose votes must be won.  And yes, having already run a gauntlet of vetting from opponents and the media is valuable to a candidate.

However, Hart’s specific points are less convincing.  According to Hart, vetting is about “clubs,” “skeletons” and “time”.  Hart defines “clubs” as mistakes candidates make on their own accord – bad policy statements or simple moments of misspeaking.  However, those two subcategories are meaningfully different.  Hart compares Romney’s stance on global warming with Perry’s comments about the Fed chairman.  Voters are unlikely to care about the latter in a bad economy, unless Perry develops a track record of far more extreme statements.  On the other hand, voters may not care a great deal about global warming, either.  But to the extent that they do, the bad economy does not incline them to agree with Romney.

Hart’s “skeletons” are serious misjudgments you’ve made in your life or associations that can lead to something headline worthy, e.g., prostitutes, DUIs, Rezko, Gennifer Flowers, and so on.  The last two examples are curious, insofar as Obama and Clinton both won, again demonstrating the weak influence of skeletons in a bad economy.  However, it is certainly possible that such skeletons matter more to the GOP primary electorate than to the Dems or the voter pool in total.  Perry has been the governor of a major state and faced major opposition, both from Democrats and Republicans.  Thus, it seems unlikely that some major skeleton lurks for Perry, but cannot be ruled out entirely (see, e.g., G.W. Bush’s last-minute DUI story in 2000).

“Time” is Hart’s final, and possibly weakest, factor.  Hart seems to believe that the biggest issue that Romney faced in 2008 was abortion, but four years later the issue is essentially water under the bridge.  If I were on Team Mitt, I would not bet on that.  Moreover, I don’t think Team Romney really believes this, either.  There’s a reason why Romney’s campaign in Iowa has been largely covert, i.e., home-schooling pro-lifers are not his target demographic.  Moreover, time has not washed away the antipathy that conservatives have toward RomneyCare and Romney’s continued defense of it.  Indeed, any number of Romney’s critics would suggest he continues to defend RomneyCare because to disavow it now would be to play into his existing reputation as a flip-flopper (a reputation that similarly has not vanished over time).

Hart goes on to spin that Romney is now the “challenger” to Perry, relieving him of the burden of having to play “King of the Hill” for the next eight months.  Um, no.  First, a one-day flash poll from Rasmussen does not make Perry the front-runner.  Second, Ronald Reagan carried the burden of front-runner in the ’80 campaign after Ford decided not to run; I doubt he considered it a hindrance.  That’s the point of the whole “next in line” thing; John McCain’s riches-to-rags-to-riches campaign is the exception, not the rule.

Nevertheless, there is a case to be made that Perry’s entry into the GOP nomination process may help Romney.  The basic dynamic of the race remains, under my analysis, Romney vs. Not Romney.  Perry’s entry divides the Not Romney vote, which may be divided further still by other late entrants.  As RCP’s Sean Trende pointed out this week, a protracted campaign like the Dems had in 2008 has advantages for Romney.  The early primaries and caucuses must award delegates proportionately; later states are free to adopt a winner-take-all system, and some have.  The early states also tilt more conservative and evangelical than the later states.  Thus, if Perry (or Bachmann for that matter) is unable to unify the Not Romney vote — either because of their own failings or other late entrants — Romney’s odds of securing the nomination may increase in a war of attrition.  That’s the more important “time” factor this cycle.

–Karl

145 Responses to “You know who Perry’s campaign benefits?”

  1. anyone what’s a fresh face with a solid record of governance is not good news for a douche the voters already carefully looked at four years ago and rejected in favor of – wait for it – John McCain

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  2. It’s of concern when the GOP is already warning Perry to watch what he says a week into his announcing. Sens King, Bass, Roskam and others, have all gone on record warning Perry about his Bernanke comment and speaking his mind too forcefully.

    None of the Republicans interviewed said they would rule out backing Perry and each offered praise for the Texan, only saying he needs to find the right tone for a national campaign. Listen, “I’ll tell you why Rick Perry could have a shot, as long as he refines himself a bit — if he tones down slightly, he could,” said King, adding that Perry has the “biggest potential to capitalize on” Obama’s “lack of leadership.

    I think again Congress doesn’t realize that most of us welcome with open arms one who forcefully speaks his mind and isn’t submissive to the old guard. The lack of Mitt polish is actually, refreshing.

    “I’ll work every day to try to make Washington, D.C., as inconsequential in your life as I can.”

    Dana (4eca6e)

  3. happyfeet I have
    urge to travel south just to
    slap the happy off

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  4. Was Perry not a Democrat until 1998? Did he have a miraculous conversion… a flip-flop in his principles?

    Granted, he was a Texas Democrat, but so’s Jim Hightower.

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  5. Better still, Happy… I’m going to write to Sarah Palin and ask her to travel to LA County, look you up, introduce herself and then kick your ass around the block three times just on principle.

    Even though I have a sinking feeling you’d enjoy it.

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  6. send the tundra tart and Meghan’s coward daddy both! I have leftover beers I got for to try those antro’s michelada cups plus I have some guacamole I’m not gonna eat

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  7. I quibble with the tenor of Perry’s comments, but the foolishness of dismissing the issue entirely,
    is an epic facepalm.

    narciso (0bd903)

  8. Colonel, Perry was a democrat till ’89 when he saw the light. Actually a west Texas Democrat was all but a Republican in everything that mattered. Even many West Texas Democrats VOTED Republican fairly consistently. Also, remember that Gore ran as a conservative (even then he did though, argue about motor vehicles) After that run, Perry realized that the Dems had lost it and he became a Republican.

    I’ve watched Perry closely since he ran for Ag Commissioner, and though I’ve not always agreed with him, I KNOW he’ll make one hell of a President. And I mean that in a good way.

    GM Rope (d58b94)

  9. Perry will waltz into the White House in a landslide!

    Juan (7fbc32)

  10. I get thoroughly irritated when Obama, Hillary, and others start droppin’ their Gs when out among “the folks”. Regional accents almost always hurt national candidates whether it’s a Kennedy’s or Kerry’s eastern speech affectation, a N’awlins dialect or a countryboy’s drawl–whether it is put on or genuine. It distracts from the message being delivered. Newscasters and actors take speech lessons to learn how to speak English for professional use that is unifying, non-regional, and uses dictionary pronunciation that everyone across the country can understand. Serious political candidates for national office need to speak that way, too. Then voters can concentrate on the substance of their words and not focus on whether they sound like hicks or elitists or whether they are playing to to “the folks.”

    Regional accents and colloquialisms can be absolutely charming in one on one personal interactions, in novels, or in business deals. But they are not helpful in a presidential campaign. Perry needs to tone down the Texas starting right now. (And I love Texas and like most Texans I’ve ever met, BTW.)

    elissa (725ce9)

  11. speaking of Mr. Governor Perry National Soros Radio is all atwatter about this today:

    Kudos to the Zero Hedge finance blog for reporting on a moment captured by C-SPAN, a Bank of America executive walking up to Texas Gov. Rick Perry after a New Hampshire event and saying loudly enough to be picked up on mic, “Bank of America. We will help you out.”

    […]

    This is why I love C-SPAN. When you keep the cameras rolling after the event like they do, there’s always the possibility of catching something really fun.

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  12. It’s peculiar isn’t it pikachu, that they don’t point out who actually received the lion’s share
    of of BoA’s contributions. an oversight clearly.

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  13. I guess that that wouldn’t be “really fun” Mr. cormac

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  14. Wouldn’t be fun for your president, happyfeet. He got the BofA bucks by far.

    bob (either orr) (6713b4)

  15. Want links, happyfeet? Try this and this and this.

    bob (either orr) (6713b4)

  16. he also got the piggy piggy union whore bucks and the hollywood-whore sony bucks and also the anti-semitic jew-hater bucks and the fascist Jeffy Immelt general electric bucks plus many other bucks

    he smashed the record!

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  17. Not Romney is what I’m holding out for.

    We are legion.

    sarahW (af7312)

  18. The nomination campaign is always a minefield, and anyone can step on one; that just happens. But Governor Perry is the guy who has an actual record on which to run, and both his Republican challengers and President Obama are just deathly afraid of comparing their records to his.

    Former Governor Palin did reasonably well, but she lasted only 2½ years until she resigned. Representative Bachmann says the right things, but congressmen just don’t have the opportunity to build up records of actually running anything. Former Governor Romney has a record, too, but it’s not going to look too good to Republican primary voters compared to Governor Perry’s.

    This election is going to be about Barack Obama’s record as President of the United States. If the economy noticeably improves and we see significant easing of unemployment, he will be re-elected; if the economy stays in the toilet, he’ll almost certainly be defeated, unless we nominate a true idiot. Someone like Rick Perry, with a long, real record which can stand in stark contrast to President Obama’s would be the strongest candidate we could have.

    The Dana who supports Governor Perry (f68855)

  19. Perry poisoned our water supply,burned our crops and delivered a plague onto our houses.

    /Unhinged lib

    I support Perry too despite my misgivings over his record. Palin will win if she gets the nom but so will Perry.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  20. I’ve said before I will support The Last Person Left Standing after the Republican primaries, but if I read someone calling Mitt Romney – by all accounts, an honorable man – a “douche”, he/she and I… WE got a problem.

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  21. Mitt Romney is a weiner.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  22. don’t make me have to
    chase you out from under your
    rock, Doughy Biden

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  23. The EPA once again is hyping the acid rain lie.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  24. The EPA once again is hyping the acid rain lies.

    Comment by DohBiden — 8/20/2011 @ 5:31 pm

    FIFY! 😉

    ppk_pixie (901c40)

  25. damn…html fail nm

    ppk_pixie (901c40)

  26. Colonel going to
    be busy corralling stray
    Rs. Like herding cats

    elissa (725ce9)

  27. Elissa…

    no cross words spoken
    against fellow R’s except
    Huckleberry Hundt

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  28. http://tammybruce.com/2011/08/public-podcast-iowa-palinista-peter-singleton.html if anyone wants to help feel free to listen :)grrr!

    jeaneeinabottle (32bda6)

  29. Well thanks pixie.

    Maybe thye mean Rain which makes you go on a freaky deeky acid trip………………see what I did there?

    DohBiden (d54602)

  30. #10 elissa, if dialects bothered everyone as it does you , we would never had FDR, JFK or Carter. If you only objection to a candidate is how they sound, you would have never voted for Thomas Jefferson as it was recorded that he had a small, squeeky voice.

    Now, to Justin Hart: Romney needs to fire him immediately. Part of responsibilities of campaign staffs is to know the opposition. For him to say that Perry has not been vetted on the national stage is true, but to indicate Perry has not been vetted in a state where politics is a bare knuckled, full body contact blood sport is underestimating the opposition. There is a saying in Texas that we like women with big hair and our polticians bloody.

    Romney has a right to worry about Perry. Perry took Michelle Bachmann to school on how to conduct a campaign in Waterloo, Iowa. And after Romney had made some snip about Perry, a reporter asked Rick Perry the next day what Perry thought about Romney’s statement. Perry blew a kiss and told the reporter “Send him [Romney] my love.”

    retire05 (08a27d)

  31. I agree, retire, Hart is not very savvy, look at his analysis of the last campaign:

    Spring 2007 – Rudy the frontrunner. Falls shortly thereafter when his liberal stances are made public (the candidate who appeared in draq on Saturday Night Live??)
    Summer 2007 – Thompson takes the lead. Falls after his lackluster campaigning skills are made evident.
    Fall 2008 – Romney takes the lead. Perhaps too soon. He falls when fresh-faced Huckabee enters the race
    Winter 2008 – Huckabee wins the Iowa Caucus. Romney bows out. McCain comes in with more prowess and organization and takes the lead.

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  32. Romney is a handy foil for the nominee Team R eventually picks … everyone will feel that much better about the nominee going into the general election knowing that hey at least it’s not Romney

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  33. During the 2008 campaign, when Hillary and Obama tried on southern accents for size while campaigning, they quickly learned not do so again. John Edwards, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson all had southern drawls and that specifically didn’t seem to effect their campaigns.

    Of course, Palin was in a league all her own as her syntax and cadence was just something most had never encountered. I think had she not been target du jour, it may have appeared charming. Instead…

    Perry’s problem isn’t his accent or anything to do with his speech: it’s just that both coasts, who seem to dictate these matters, sneer down at Texas in general.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  34. “He falls when fresh-faced Huckabee enters the race”

    More than a few things come to mind when describing Huckleberry, but “fresh-faced”??? that’s a new one.

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  35. Perry blew a kiss and told the reporter “Send him [Romney] my love.”

    That’s going to feed into that one story about Perry… uh-oh!

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  36. retire–

    I just think good candidates should give themselves every opportunity to win. And that they should make an effort to remove every obsticle that they possibly can which might keep voters from hearing what they have to say. If that means a few diction lessons and modifying some schtick, so be it. A careful read of my earlier comment should reveal that nowhere did I say I would never vote for a candidate with a dialect so I don’t know where the heck you came up with that idea. But yes, I do think the issue of presentation is worth consideration because no matter how misguided or shallow you may think it is, you and I both know that there are plenty of other voters who will not vote for Perry for that reason alone.

    elissa (725ce9)

  37. Huckleberry lose
    two hundred pounds then regains
    on Seefood Diet

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  38. “I do think the issue of presentation is worth consideration”

    elissa – Agreed. Many voters will not vote for fat mittens should he decide to run just because he is fat, not because his stance on global warming or because he is from New Joizy.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  39. ==During the 2008 campaign, when Hillary and Obama tried on southern accents for size while campaigning they quickly learned not do so again==

    Sorry Dana– This is the clueless one we are talking about. Barry was absolutely pouring on the country boy accent for “the folks” in front of his rural backdrops while on the Magical Misery Bus tour this week. There’s plenty of video evidence of it. And “the folks” clearly did not appreciate it, either.

    elissa (725ce9)

  40. I’d compare Huckabeeyotch to a pile of cat vomit but that is an insult to cat vomit.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  41. elissa,

    IIRC, there were several dialects he would adopt at varying times: in the south, he would use his southern drawl (and was mocked); in Chicago and urban black areas, he would pull out his great-orator-drawl but richly infused with the cadence of a tent revival preacher.

    In essence, he painfully attempted to become what he believed the people wanted him – and needed – him to be in various regions.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  42. p.s. I
    was referring to the 2008 campaign. I don’t know about this past weeks’ bus tour – I didn’t listen to any of his sales pitches.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  43. ==I didn’t listen to any of his sales pitches==

    Lol. And you are better off for it. (And you’re right he is nothing if not versatile. The black preacher Obama persona is even more awful than the country boy Obama persona.)

    elissa (725ce9)

  44. elissa, Rick Perry is not running for a slot on the evening news. What you see is what you get. So if his Texas drawl bothers you, then by all means, use that as an excuse to not vote for him. And if it bothers anyone else to the point where they would rather vote for another candidate, so be it.

    Obviously Governor Perry understand this is not a big deal. It wasn’t for Clinton either.

    retire05 (08a27d)

  45. More piling on for the Obamster…
    Walter Russell Mead rips into him in an essay titled (JD will love this),
    Feeding the Masses on Unicorn Ribs,
    on his slavish devotion to “Green Jobs” and what it has, and is, costing him in credibility – and re-election.

    http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2011/08/19/feeding-the-masses-on-unicorn-ribs/

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (bf7b3a)

  46. #35 ColonelHaiku, sorry, but that dog won’t hunt. Tony Sanchez tried it, as did Carol Keeton Rylander Strayhorn. It didn’t work then, and it won’t work now.

    Only with stupid yankees who bought into the whole “Obama is smart” meme.

    retire05 (08a27d)

  47. Gotta love the gorebot at hot air oakland insisting the consensus of gorebull warming is real and happening and then he threatens people who point out it is not but don’t call gorebull warming a religion or your worse than hitler.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  48. My observations on politics is mostly from a distance.

    I think I may have said in the past that I’ve met Perry, but I don’t know him.

    However, I am an Aggie. Aggies live by a code, especially Corps members.

    Perry was in the Corps and an Air Force pilot.

    He will do what he says as far as the political system allows. If you agree with him, vote for him. If, as the political process takes place, he makes you uncomfortable, don’t.

    However, I promise you, if you decide to vote for him, you will get what you voted for. That is not a threat nor a bad thing. It simply is.

    I certainly would vote for him against the current President. I also have to add, he is no W, not by a long stretch.

    Ag80 (9a213d)

  49. ==by all means, use that as an excuse to not vote for him. And if it bothers anyone else to the point where they would rather vote for another candidate, so be it==

    Retire–I am leaving you to have the last word on this since we are so obviously talking past each other as to make it unproductive to continue. (And all the crazier since I think we are pretty much on the same side.)

    elissa (725ce9)

  50. Hey retire oh five
    usually I don’t have
    to say “that was joke”

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  51. I understand what you mean, elissa, but I think any
    attempt to ‘polish the rough edges,’ would be spun
    as inauthentic. As insane as that sounds,

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  52. Hey, we can’t beat the
    messiah to pariah
    we gotta problem

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  53. this is still the party what recently bewildered America and the world by nominating a useless geriatric douche from Arizona

    you gotta keep an eye on them cause for reals there’s just no telling what they’ll do

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  54. I’m a suspend my campaign and fick the economy!

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  55. brb

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  56. I’m glad Gov. Perry got in. Ag’80 is right that what you see with him is pretty much what you get — I also hold that to be a feature, not a bug — and it’s no accident at all that Perry’s had the success he’s had in Texas. I’m still waiting to see how well he’ll combat the anti-Texas/anti-Dubya bigotry, though, and Perry is a magnet for that. (Compare, e.g., the anti-Texas reaction that Perry generates to that of our fellow Texan Ron Paul, who’s a different sort of magnet altogether.)

    I was surprised that T-Paw stubbed his toes so forcefully and repeatedly, but I think he blew his chance on this election cycle’s national stage. I’m fond of Rick Santorum and I’ve taken a liking to Herman Cain, but I don’t think either of them has any real chance at the nomination, and they may be running for Veep at this point.

    Congresswoman Bachmann gives a good speech, and I admire her courage in the face of witheringly unfair attacks, but her actual record of accomplishment is less than I would typically expect of a major-party nominee. I think, for example, that Sarah Palin, with whom Rep. Bachmann is often compared, accomplished more as a mayor, state energy regulator, and half-term state governor than Rep. Bachmann has yet accomplished anywhere. She hasn’t been part of the GOP congressional leadership — I know some of you consider that a feature, not a bug! — but she really hasn’t done anything more than make speeches and vote against most of the other members of her party. Since we have no shortage of candidates with more substantial track records, I’ll not be among her enthusiasts unless and until she actually has the nomination, and I don’t think that’s going to happen.

    I’m a fan of Gov. Romney, who had to do a lot more swimming upstream as a GOP governor in a very blue state than Gov. Perry has ever had to do. But I also have my doubts whether he’s as deeply steeped in conservative principles as I’d like, or instead too vulnerable to clever technocratic thinking. I think he would have to work very hard, and perhaps against his own nature, to keep the Dems from suckering him if he became president. And he really hasn’t done anything noteworthy since he lost decisively to John McCain in 2008. Indeed, after Fred Thompson dropped out, I rated Romney higher than McCain in 2008, and I’m still dismayed that McCain won the nomination. But having lost decisively to John McCain is just not a good resume credential for a would-be GOP nominee in 2012. It takes a real leap of faith to believe that Gov. Romney can beat in 2012 the guy who now has the advantage of incumbency and who trounced McCain in 2008.

    So I’m still agitating to draft Paul Ryan. I’m encouraged by the recent buzz which suggests he’s considering entering the race, and my most recent post on my own blog — which I’m immodestly promoting here — is my response to recent good-faith questions and observations about Ryan from Allahpundit and Captain Ed Morrissey: Beldar on Ryan’s vulnerabilities.

    Beldar (485693)

  57. Forgot to close that html tag, oops.

    Beldar (485693)

  58. The Horatio Alger tale Romney relates at campaign stops is his father’s life story, no match for Perry’s narrative of growing up without indoor plumbing on a dusty West Texas farm.

    The cultural differences, more notable for the scarcity of policy distinctions among the Republican candidates, mirror divisions within the GOP electorate and even its dominant conservatives. On one side are the hard-liners, many of them religious, who embrace the “tea party” movement’s hostility to Washington and are more likely to lack college educations. On the other are the more secular and moderate, open to government action to protect the environment and regulate business and more likely to have attended college.


    LA Times propaganda slut Paul West
    does not appear to have a cite for these assertions

    I scrolled and scrolled, both up and also down, just how they learned me in college

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  59. elissa (#10): I’m one Texan who took no offense, and who believes he understands what you meant as genuinely constructive criticism, when you wrote above, “Perry needs to tone down the Texas starting right now.”

    But I don’t think that’s going to happen with Perry. I’m not sure if he could do that, but I’m really sure he won’t, and I’m pretty sure he won’t even try.

    Consider Clan Bush. George H.W. Bush became a genuine Texas oilman, and he’s absolutely beloved in our state now, including by a whole lot of liberal Texans who argued that he and Reagan were devils incarnate back in the 1980s. But no one ever mistook Bush-41 for anything other than the son of Prescott Bush, United States Senator from Connecticut, and varsity baseball player for Yale College.

    However, his son were Texas-born and raised. And to this good day, you can still hear Midland, Texas, in the voice of George W. Bush. It’s in his whole attitude. It nearly caused liberal heads all around the world to explode with anti-Texas bigotry from the day he entered the 2000 presidential race until — well, until forever.

    But then ponder Jeb Bush. Jeb played in the same Midland dirt that Dubya did as a child, and I’m sure being reared in Texas made a powerful impression on him and continues to influence him. But now, and for some time, he’s been a thorough-going Floridian. And he doesn’t evoke nearly the same hostility, even dementia, that Dubya always has.

    I suspect in this particular respect, Rick Perry is more like Dubya than like Jeb. Whatever it took for Jeb to assimilate himself with non-Texans in Florida, I don’t think Perry has that, or wants to have it.

    Again, I see that as more of a feature than a bug. But I can understand those who disagree, and objectively, even if unfairly, it’s got to be one of the biggest impediments for the Perry campaign.

    Beldar (485693)

  60. (Meant to say “sons,” and meant to say “reared,” not “raised.” My own Texas-born daddy would be frowning at me if he read me confusing children with livestock.)

    Beldar (485693)

  61. toning down the Texas?

    Ralph Reed, a longtime evangelical strategist, called the Houston rally “a defining moment” for Perry.

    The Texas governor has already demonstrated a “level of comfort with the vernacular and values of evangelicals” that has “freed him up to focus on jobs and the economy,” Reed said. He “doesn’t have to go out and genuflect” to religious conservatives anymore. Indeed, Perry ignored social issues in his announcement speech and generally discussed them at campaign events only when asked.

    we’ll see

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  62. Romney is the only nominee who can defeat Obama. The self described “conservatives” need red meat so bad. I wish they would grow up. Drink some beer and eat some bbq. The smart guys have to come in and run things.

    dougx (fd0a59)

  63. Perry does not have to threaten the Federal Reserve chairman to make his point. His valid point was lost by the foolish and intemperate way that he delivered the remarks. I like Perry but he needs to start out as a VP for Romney and get his sea legs before he runs for the big job.

    dougx (fd0a59)

  64. @ dougx (#62): Oh, my. Has there ever been a more chilling statement than “The smart guys have to come in and run things”?

    That could come from the mouth of Barack Obama. Or Joe Stalin.

    I dearly hope that Gov. Romney doesn’t share that attitude. I’m not advocating against intelligent thought or deed. But I’m very definitely advocating against leaders who think, for example, that it’s within the responsibility and power of the POTUS to create jobs on the national economy. I’m advocating for leaders who understand the wisdom of well-informed free markets and aggregated individual decision-making by a free people. I want someone not to “run things,” but to do that which government should be doing, and not anything more.

    “Knowledge is proud that he has learn’d so much; Wisdom is humble that he knows no more.”- William Cowper

    Beldar (485693)

  65. “The basic dynamic of the race remains [] Romney vs. Not Romney.”

    Not. Not Romney referred, in the most relevant, germane sense, to the ‘Goldilocks’ strategy(Jay Cost) of, e.g., Pawlenty, to be ersatz Romney without all the negatives.

    With Perry, Palin, and Bachmann we now have the main event and Sans Persona will fade. King or Queen maker he may remain but that is all.

    Charlie Cook warns Repugnants of their need to appeal to Indies while flogging their base into a lather.

    Indies are a bimodal population, 40% of the electorate just a quarter, however, are the sometimes party switching so-libs.

    A clear majority, 60% of Indies, are disenfranchished conservatives.

    The Shape Shifter lacks the one requirement of the 2012 victor–authenticity.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  66. dougx

    Romney is a product of an extremely uber wealthy set of parents

    Rommey was given his status in life whereas Perry, Palin, Bachmann, Paul, Gingrich, actually worked for theirs

    EricPWJohnson (0b1e7c)

  67. “Rommey was given his status in life whereas Perry, Palin, Bachmann, Paul, Gingrich, actually worked for theirs”

    EricPW – Right, which was why he became governor of MA rather than MI and earned his owned wealth.

    You trotted out this line of BS without support before. He has name recognition from his father in Michigan. Provide some backup for the rest.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  68. That’s the first time I have ever heard that a guy who served overseas on a mission for 2 1/2 years, worked at entry level jobs during his high school and college years and in spite of the wealth his father accumulated the family was not considered very rich by Mitt’s fellow high school students. Romney acquired his wealth from his years as a highly recruited and then trusted management consultant and then as an investor.

    Pat Patterson (62a622)

  69. Just remember Teh Narrative: vilify anyone who has a chance to unseat the current occupant of the White House. Republicans seem to like helping progressives with this task.

    Simon Jester (5ab1ab)

  70. I don’t fault Mitt, for his affluent background, anymore than with Sun Microsystems Scott McNealy, who was also the son of a American Motors exec, I question his judgement on a whole series of issues

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  71. Romney may be a good man, I have no doubt he is, and I am sickened by any mention of his religion as a negative, but I can’t support someone who seems to take a stand on social issues depending on which way the wind is blowing or who can’t admit that his own health care plan is now reaping havoc on his state.

    I also know that through no fault of his own, Romney appears stiff and will not be able to relate to the shrimper in Louisiana or the wheat farmer in Kansas. The Brotherhood of The Farmer Tan is not something you can fake.

    Romney made a mistake in 2008 when his favorablity ratings went up and he thought McCain’s campaign was all but dead. He laid back and rested on his laurals, while McCain rebuilt his campaign and came up from behind and blindsided Romney, only to take the nomination.

    One poll does not a nominee make, but if you check out who the left is all apoplectic over, it ain’t Romney. All the hit pieces are on Perry with Jared Bernstein of The Bernstein/Romer Report fame doing his level best to debunk the success Texas has seen under Perry. To think that Bernstein was so wrong about the Stimulus Bill yet is believed by so many about Texas is a bit ironic, but there it is.

    With 14 million Americans out of work, who are so discouraged they are not even looking for work, jobs are going to the the main voting issue in this campaign season. Has Romney had any affect in increasing the number of jobs in his state during this recession we are being told is over?

    retire05 (08a27d)

  72. One poll does not a nominee make, but if you check out who the left is all apoplectic over, it ain’t Romney.

    and the same thing will happen to anyone else who announces, so don’t think Perry is that special.

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  73. First, I’ll turn my cards face up: I’d vote for my noisy neighbor’s mango tree before I’d vote for Barack Obama. In fact, the only way I’d vote for any Democrat is with a gun to my head, with the possible exception of Jesus of Nazareth and only then if Sarah Palin was on the ticket.

    So, in the absence of deadly force, or divine intervention, whoever gets the GOP nomination automatically gets my vote. Consequently, yesterday I switched from Independent to Republican to make sure my 2 cents counts in the all important GOP primary.

    Now, given my druthers, I’m not keen on Mitt Romney’s politics. I don’t want him, you can have him, he’s too squishy for me. (I might even go so far as to call him a a RINO but then recent experience shows I might have to spend half the day defending an overly harsh characterization.) However, I’m a man of my word, and if Romney gets the GOP nod he gets me too.

    Nor do I much cotton to Rick Perry, so far I’m not persuaded he’s all that significantly different from a previous shifty-eyed Texan who ran as a ‘compassionate conservative.’ I tend to like my Texans straight up, neat, sans adjectives. Straight talkin’ two-fisted men who see border security in the form of impenetrable physical barriers.

    Although I admire Michelle Bachmann, the criticism of her lack of executive political experience is troubling. How she campaigns will have to serve as an indicator of her ability to lead a complex organization. Fair or not, other than her House experience, it’s all we really have to go on. However, she’s right on the issues and unafraid to speak her mind, and perhaps a bit too willing to spout off when a little restraint would be better received.

    The rest haven’t caught my interest yet. Perhaps one or two will distinguish themselves, we’ll see. But, since Sarah Palin hasn’t announced one way or another yet, a comprehensive overview is necessarily incomplete.

    Since Bill Clinton delayed his announcement until well into October, the door is still open. The question is who will come calling, Sarah Palin or Donald Trump, and will they run as Independents, TEA Party candidates, or will one or the other seek the GOP nomination?

    ropelight (058c66)

  74. Beldar, I consider it a feature rather than a bug that Perry will not consider nor make attempts to modify himself or pull back on the Texas. Dealing with a known quantity and with a what-you-see-is-what-you-get is much more preferable. I suspect a lot of voters will be drawn to the bluntness of his campaign style and will see that as a strength.

    I think the problem comes in when the east coast-west coast lefties dominate the airwaves, prattling on with the stereotyping and mischaracterization of anything Texan. It’s a post-Bush reflex, but also has a lot to do with the country hick view of Texans, too.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  75. Eloquence defined I tell you:

    Please understand that no one cares more about this than we do, since Americans own 87 percent of all our financial assets and 69 percent of all our treasury bonds,” Biden said, answering a question about U.S. debt.

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  76. Suffice it to say that I will not allow the likes of dougx to determine who I should support.

    JD (318f81)

  77. ==I’d vote for my noisy neighbor’s mango tree before I’d vote for Barack Obama==

    Rope!!! I see a perfect slogan for t-shirts, porch banners, and beach towels in that comment. It’s a perfect gentle reminder of what must be our ultimate goal as we get into the inevitable intra-party squabbles on who’s the “best” of the better.

    elissa (5d6a92)

  78. Whoever ends up being the R candidate, one thing is for certain: Sarah Palin can’t win a national election. Any of us who may be breathlessly awaiting her announcement had better disabuse themselves that this is a path to unseating King Barry the Worst.

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  79. Romney is so handsome he could be in a J Crew catalog or Mervyn’s maybe

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  80. Who Perry’s campaign benefits?

    Why Obama, who else?

    Bush III? What a gift!

    Spartacvs (419992)

  81. What a good little foot soldier spartacvs is for MMfA and thinkprogress.

    concerned christian conservative (85b089)

  82. To Spartacvs all
    Texans look alike; must be
    same boot kicking a$$

    Icy Texan (aeef33)

  83. All texans look the same hey Spartac why don’t you go play in traffic.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  84. spurty is the gift
    what keeps on giving so you
    sit back and enjoy

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  85. Sarah Palin can’t win a national election?

    We’ll see about that. She did a successful show about bears plus she wrote two whole books kind of. And you’re probably not factoring in that she’s pretty much sewn up the coveted Orrin Hatch endorsement.

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  86. And you’re probably not factoring in that she’s pretty much sewn up the coveted Orrin Hatch endorsement.

    Not as pretty as Bachman though.

    Spartacvs (d05556)

  87. Bachmann is the queen of rage I heard. She’s probably mad cause her parents misspelled her name.

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  88. michele, one l
    these are words that go together well
    so you can spell

    michele bachmann

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  89. No she’s just mad, as in mad hatter mad, rather than angry.

    Spartacvs (d05556)

  90. So spartacvs is a bigoted ignoranus.

    concerned christian conservative (85b089)

  91. Wait. Is Sparticvs back, still not owning his dishonesty? I mean, if he would simply admit he makes things up and is posting to be a jackass, that would be fine. But he wants to be taken all…seriously.

    People won’t forget your posting history, little troll.

    Simon Jester (c8876d)

  92. Imagine Palin & Bachmann having a foot-long-on-a-stick eating contest . . .

    happyfeet’s “head” would ‘splode!

    Icy Texan (aeef33)

  93. Beldar, did you really mean to write this…
    “…However, his son were Texas-born and raised. And to this good day, you can still hear Midland, Texas, in the voice of George W. Bush…”

    You do realize that GWB was born in New Haven while his father was playing baseball for Yale?
    How old was “W” when he first saw those dirt-fields of Midland – 5, 6,?

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  94. my money’s on Sarah

    happyfeet (3c92a1)

  95. My Heavens! Is McCain next in line again?

    Remember when Dole was next in line from the 30’s

    When will the Repubs find someone that is alive to run?

    Mitch Rapp (d6ef8d)

  96. Obama’s already dead, he’s just too stupid to lie down.

    ropelight (058c66)

  97. 4. Not 1998. Rick Perry was Chairman of Albert Gore’s primary campaign in Texas in 1988.

    It was in 1988 that Albert Gore started to talk about global warming in a major way, but this was just a minor thing with them, and less obviously wrong anyway. )

    It was maybe the year after that or so that Rick Perry became a Republican.

    Sammy Finkelman (d3de3a)

  98. Another Drew (#93), I could well have erred on my timeline, but not on my recognition of accent.

    Beldar (485693)

  99. And Sarah was born in Sandpoint, Idaho, but she is known as an Alaskan, because she’s lived there since age 5, W was two, when his parents moved to Odessa, originally.

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  100. According to the George W. Bush Childhood Home Museum‘s timeline, Dubya was born in 1946, while (as you point out) his war-veteran father was completing his postponed education at Yale. GHWB moved to Odessa in 1948; the family lived briefly in California (which I had not realized at all) for a while in 1949; and they returned to Midland in 1950, where they lived until they moved to Houston in 1959.

    So I’ll stick with my main point: Most of Dubya’s most formative years were spent in Midland, Texas (or Odessa, a dozen or so miles away).

    Beldar (485693)

  101. this just in… Rambobama has just surrounded Ghagdaffi and is going in for the kill…

    ColonelHaiku (8211ab)

  102. None dare call him chickenhawk… what he learned in the jungles of Pawkeestan could change the world… and turn an election!

    ColonelHaiku (8211ab)

  103. Though, the Bushes spent a brief time living in the South Gate area of Los Angeles in the Late-40’s/Early-50’s where “41” was sent by whatever oil company he was working for.
    This is something that came out during the ’00 campaign – that they lived in a duplex(?) on Santa Fe Ave near the Firestone plant.
    But, I grant the “Permian” accent, as that is where “43” did grow up and go to school.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  104. The Bush family moved to West Texas — Odessa first, then Midland — when George W. was 2, and Beldar is right that W. still has a Midland accent.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  105. …and I would not be so bold as to say that it was in Midland/Odessa that GW learned to read and speak “English”.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  106. He undoubtedly learned to read at Midland’s Sam Houston Elementary, unless his Mother taught him first — which is possible since children didn’t go to school until they were 6.

    DRJ (a83b8b)

  107. DRJ…picky, picky, picky!
    We’re trying to have a little fun here.
    It is, after all, a slow news day what with the ‘bamster on The Vineyard; and all of the “corporate jet owners” screaming to High Heaven about having to do a clearance stop before getting to the island; and absolutely nothing else of note happening in the World…
    Oh, what was that, another Arab tent blew-over in North Africa…
    Well, move along, nothing here to see.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  108. To those of us not Texian, y’all pretty much sound the same.

    Dana (4eca6e)

  109. Well, Dana, there’s a long-standing mostly-friendly rivalry between Midlandians (?) and Odessans, and some folks claims they can reliably tell one from the other on sight. Traditionally Odessa was more oil-field and Midland was more insurance/banking/company office (or, as the Odessans would have it, “more country-club”). But those stereotypes are sometimes overblown, and I can’t claim to be able to tell any difference in accent or speech patterns between the folks of those two nearby cities.

    Now, if you start talking Midland versus, say, Texarkana, the accents are quite a bit different to the practiced ear.

    But I take your point: I have a hard time telling a difference between various English, Scottish, Welsh, and Irish accents, but the Brits I know all think those are utterly dissimilar from one another, too.

    Beldar (485693)

  110. Brits can tell what part of London you live in by your accent.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  111. No, sporty the sudden psychologist, she’s not insane. That actually means something. Nor is she mad. She proscribes to different ideas than you. According to you, half the nation is crazy.

    Now, Al Gore sure seems to be pissed off about something, but he’s not insane. Yet.

    Ag80 (9a213d)

  112. To me, I confess, both Dubya, Laura, and Perry sound like “home.” And I’m oversharing by saying this, but Laura’s drawl is, to my ears, terribly sexy. I adore her voice, and I adore the things she (carefully) chooses to say with it. I think she was an incredibly good first lady (as was her mother-in-law) — she is still underappreciated because of the dementia and vehemence of those who set themselves as the implacable enemies of her husband.

    Occasionally Barbara Bush will say something that’s pure Texas, and I love her for it; but she and GWH Bush still sound mostly like Yankees to me, although their years here have smoothed out a lot of the northeast from their voices.

    Beldar (485693)

  113. We could do worse than having another Texan hitching his horse at 1600 PA Ave, and have.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  114. Ag80 @111:

    According to you, half the nation is crazy.

    Half the nation supports a Bachmann presidency?

    27%

    Spartacvs (9a5563)

  115. We could do worse than having another Texan hitching his horse at 1600 PA Ave

    We sure could, a Minnesotan for example (Iowan actually)

    Spartacvs (9a5563)

  116. Ag mis-spoke:
    There’s the Nation, which is generally sane, but had a little hic-cup in ’08 that it partially corrected in ’10;
    and then there is the insane….You!

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  117. ==We could do worse than having another Texan hitching his horse at 1600 PA Ave, and have==

    Now AD–you’re not ever so subtly dissing the “favorite son” from my state with that comment about 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., are you?

    elissa (70aa6d)

  118. No, a Fine Lady from IA/MN would definitely be an improvement over present circumstances.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  119. I don’t know, elissa, what state are you from?

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  120. Illinois, if I remember correctly.

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  121. Daley

    Mitt ran a private equity firm, not a cement company,” said Eric A. Kriss, a former Bain Capital partner. “He was not a businessman in the sense of running a company,” Mr. Kriss said, adding, “He was a great presenter, a great spokesman and a great salesman.”

    He made his money mainly through leveraged buyouts — essentially, mortgaging companies to take them over in the hope of reselling them at big profits in just a few years. It is a bare-knuckle form of investing that is in the spotlight because of the exploding profits of buyout giants like Bain, Blackstone and the Carlyle Group. In Washington, Congress is considering ending a legal quirk that lets fund managers escape much of the income tax on their earnings.

    eh… yawwwn

    Mitt somehow s hired as a VP used questionable leverge such as using the inflated restated baalance sheets to borrow against to finance firm takeovers

    Cannot see where remortgaging firms adding to corp balance sheet debt to take a percent of the deal is anything remotely related to job creation

    Somehow getting the money and influence to attend for over a decadde the most expensive schools in America and getting hired by a family friend as a Wall Street VP is somehow walking the street working up from the mailroom

    nice life if you can get it

    EricPWJohnson (0b1e7c)

  122. Cannot see

    Yes, that explains a great deal of your commentary.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  123. ian, I might be having a Sr.Moment, but I can’t recall any GOP candidate for President in this cycle from IL?

    elissa, just who are you talking about?

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  124. A four year old piece from David Kirpatrick, doesn’t really count as an affirmative representation of anything, no matter how many times it has spun through the Sorosphere,

    ian cormac (0bd903)

  125. ==We could do worse than having another Texan hitching his horse at 1600 PA Ave, and have==

    I meant it as a joke, AD. What with everybody else being so proud of the pols from their own state and all. But, daley and I (and others) have to suffer with abject embarrassment over what our state offered to the world. Well, at least we sent you Lincoln and Grant, and Reagan was born here. But that was quite a while ago.

    elissa (70aa6d)

  126. Marks of Pride, elissa, Marks of Pride that you should wear well.
    Don’t worry, I don’t do subtle well…
    but I excell at sarcasm.
    Some have said that, if it wasn’t for the part-time nature of it, I would be considered quite the wit – or something like that (I think they were being complimentary…).

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  127. ==I don’t do subtle well==

    AD– don’t sell yourself short. You often pick up on the subtle that others miss. You are totally excused for not getting that I was referring to Bumble.

    elissa (70aa6d)

  128. No, sporty the sudden statistician, what I am saying that the country is divided between those who want the government to tell them what to do in all things and those who don’t.

    If your side wins, what will you call your boss? I mean besides mom. Comrade, Komrade, or Liege? Just asking.

    Ag80 (9a213d)

  129. Beldar, should we footnote the phrase “Gentleman from Odessa” ?

    SPQR (26be8b)

  130. No Ag, 73% of the country knows that government works and that good government works to everyone’s benefit while bad government can be made to work only for the benefit of a select few. Just 27% are rocking the boat and don’t believe government can work to anybodys benefit, because that’s what they have been told to believe.

    Spartacvs (d05556)

  131. What is this good government of which the troll speaks?

    JD (318f81)

  132. “Cannot see where remortgaging firms adding to corp balance sheet debt to take a percent of the deal is anything remotely related to job creation”

    EricPW – Cannot see how your comment provides any support to your earlier claims that Mitt owes all he has achieved to the wealth and status of his family.

    I am very familiar with what leveraged buyout/private equity firms do.

    Care to try to support your original comment again or just go for more BUNNIES!!!!!

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  133. If you think Republicans are KKK than how do you explain Robert Byrd not wanting to serve in the military with N words eh SpartacBS?

    DohBiden (d54602)

  134. Comment by JD — 8/21/2011 @ 7:08 pm

    That’s where total govt spending at all levels does not exceed 15% of GDP.
    It used to happen, you can look it up (as Annie Savoy likes to say).

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  135. spvrty thinks that science started with Engineer Bill.

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  136. No, sport the sudden demographer, most of the nation understands that they voted for a false promise.

    Here’s a fact. I know you like I know my favorite uncle. You don’t give two craps about African-Americans or Hispanics or Muslims or whatever particular minority I can name.

    Your whole life is concentrated on trying to score some sort of points on a Web site. That can be fun in the short term, but it means nothing in the long-run.

    You don’t help anyone. You don’t volunteer at the old-folks home, you don’t deliver meals to the elderly. You don’t help a Scout or a Y-Guide or Princess. Or Big Brother or Big Sisters. You don’t volunteer at the local homeless shelter or sit down with a friend in trouble. You don’t go to another community in despair to offer aid or another country to help them build a better life

    You don’t do a damn thing that matters, except snark on a damn Web site. How do I know this?

    Because I know you and all the worthless people you represent. I know them and you because I used to be one of those worthless people.

    Then, I realized I could do a thing or two to help other people. Besides this.

    So, with all due respect, shut up, you useless pile. What you say matters about as much as, well, nothing.

    Ag80 (9a213d)

  137. I’m glad Gaddaffi was going but I have this sinking feeling that if this uprising had happened during the Reagan admin the left would have called Reagan a tyrant trying to get rid of Gaddaffi because he knows too much.

    DohBiden (d54602)

  138. Comment by Ag80 — 8/21/2011 @ 8:06 pm

    To be fair, he did stay at a Holiday Inn Express!

    Another Drew - Restore the Republic / Obama Sucks! (c036f1)

  139. Another Drew:

    That would assume he got out of his pajamas and left his Cheeto-dusted house.

    Ag80 (9a213d)

  140. Ag80 – In fairness, Spvrty might be a feminist, just another form of lefty h8tr, these days.

    daleyrocks (bf33e9)

  141. #137… excellent point, dohbiden.

    ColonelHaiku (8211ab)

  142. spvrty thinks that science started with Engineer Bill.

    hahahahahah! red light… green light… green light… red light!!!!!

    ColonelHaiku (8211ab)

  143. 62.”Romney is the only nominee who can defeat Obama”

    Only Obots repeat this drivel now that all the remaining Not Romney hopes of the Elites are dashed–save the faint Hail Ryan paeons offered against the obvious and achievable: Kohl is retiring.

    A RINO, months back, would have generated enthusiasm only in the battle ground East, e.g., PA. Urkel could have prevailed via electoral college arithmetic against Mittens, before the ground gave way.

    No longer. Mittens and Cain are apprenticed by the same Avarice and Abaddon, that seek our children for sacrifice.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  144. The left are such hypocrites Colonel.

    You mean Mccain right gary?

    DohBiden (d54602)

  145. 144. “You mean Mccain right gary?”

    Well, no, I mean that Cain, former KC Reserve Chair is bound by the box of his resume.

    Just months back, this was a boon but now that the Fed is emerged as a great evil, its no longer a net positive.

    This isn’t a knock on either as a husband, father, neighbor or human being, but as a leader. Donner Pass seemed like a good move late in the season.

    gary gulrud (790d43)


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