This is a follow-up to my post from earlier today where I show that John Reid was assuredly not pro-Weiner. This post sets out still more evidence of that. If you’re wondering why you should still care about this, I explain here.

Specifically, I found the part of the chat where John Reid starts trying to manipulate me into being the one to reveal that he and his “wife” are starting to re-evaluate Weiner. This is from June 23. All emphasis is mine.

Please understand that, as I was chatting with Reid, I was also chatting with Liberty Chick, and telling her that the style was obviously Dan Wolfe:

me: Dan Wolfe style filibuster

Liberty: LOL

Reid starts off talking about how Weiner’s technique is similar to what the pedophiles do:

me: That “Tights and cape” thing is a grooming line

nikki: YES!

me: See how the person responds

nikki: That’s what I was getting at

That and him speaking like a teenager

me: Are you SURE you got EVERYTHING?

nikki: that technique is common

talking like a teenager – the pedophiles use that

He also says I am a hero, that the “tights and cape” line gave them “chills,” and that Weiner’s behavior was “disgusting”:

me: The “tights and cape” line?

nikki: That gave us chills

me: Are you aware that Jen Preston airbrushed that?

I wrote all about it

I savaged her for it

nikki: Yup. We saw that. Disgusting.

You are a hero

becasuse we would not have known about all of Nikki’s DM’s with him

had you not pushed that

so we thank you

Real pro-Weiner!

At the very same moment I was telling Liberty Chick:

me: Dude, this is SO Wolfe

He thinks he is manipulating me

It is frigging hilarious

Liberty: Ask him if Nikki is Dan Wolfe’s daughter in real life. LOL

me: I am playing along

The flattery is making me a little sick though

He likes to do that

Thinks it is a good manipulation tactic

I am a hero

I swore Liberty Chick to secrecy on that, because I was VERY nervous about letting it get out that I thought they were the same person. (And I will admit that there were times I questioned my certitude — although as the evidence mounted, I became more and more sure.)

Now we get to the part where I asked Reid about Wolfe and his crew. I was seeing that Reid was starting to turn on Weiner, so I thought I would ask him about Wolfe directly:

me: One question I have is

Can you possibly see Dan Wolfe and his crew in a different light now?

Perhaps they were trying to protect people

nikki: Yes we can sympathize much more now

Much more

But here’s the thing

This is what needs to be done carefully

me: What, if any, of this are you willing to say publicly

nikki: on our part

That was my next point

me: OK

nikki: This is the problem we discussed – my wife and I

if we come out now and say all that we just said about Weiner – which wasn’t bad – it was a normal parental reaction

you can guess what I’m going to say

let’s see how good you are

shoot:

me: You were digging up dirt on him, and against him, all along!

nikki: BINGO!

See the problem we have?

me: I do

nikki: You are good.

So this is why

me: But I don’t know how to solve it

nikki: well we thought

we would let you come to those conclusions as you present the DM’s

obviously you said you would not comment

but

I think what you highlighted for example tonight says your true feelings

Perhaps later on, after everything is out – we can say in public what we really think

but now is not the time for that

And the same goes for how we are re-thinking our feelings on Wolfe and his group

We can’t say that now. Because you know that reaction “They were for Wolfe all along!! They ARE really Wolfe!!”

In reality, these are human emotions, normal re-evaluations that any parent or person would have.

They are not manipulations or calculations.

And I’m sure you know that.

But others, not so much.

See how he is manipulating me to be the one to suggest what he really wants to get out there?

Anybody who knows anything about Dan Wolfe recognizes the pattern.

In coming days I plan to publish all the reasons that I believe Wolfe is Reid, and the “manipulations or calculations” will become even more clear.

[UPDATE: If you’re wondering why you should still care about this, I explain here. Original post follows.]

John Reid has tried hard to portray his family as pro-Weiner at all times.

Remember that the family, in their statements to Tommy Christopher, purported to support Weiner. And in his recent e-mails to me, Reid said:

I / family was never Wolfe and actually to this day have still not said a word against Weiner. I’ve said wife and I rethought things. But still admire him.

Oh really?

You’re about to read a couple of excerpts from my chats with JohnReid9.

On June 24, we were discussing various aspects of the timeline. He was telling me that, because of the Ethel story, he had gone back to Nikki and found out she had more DMs than she had first revealed. He said things like:

nikki: I just got a bone chill . . . He is more dangerous than I thought . . . That is really really disturbing. Bone chillingly disturbing . . . I fear this man might be sicker than we ever thought possible

On June 25, he said:

I’m getting you everything. There is volumes of stuff now that Nikki gave me more of her Weiner messages

It turns out they messaged more than we ever thought . . . YOure not gonna beleive this stuff

Real pro-Weiner!

But, you see, he didn’t want to come out and immediately reveal that he was re-thinking Weiner. He was afraid it might not seem believable. So he tried to manipulate me into laying the groundwork for the proposition that he and his wife had changed their minds about Weiner.

Anybody who knows anything about Dan Wolfe recognizes the pattern.

From June 26:

me: May I quote you regarding how you got Nikki to reveal more of these after you noticed the Ethel discrepancy?

nikki: Of course. Ypu are to thank for all of that. Thank God for you, Patterico.

You are a real hero.

Someone needs to recognize you publicly

me: I’m OK not being “recognized”

nikki: I know but you really should be.

What you did is saving kids

I’m sure [Ethel]’s parent’s agree

perhaps after you quote me that will open the door for someone to ask our feelings now, if we are reevaluating Weiner and Bornfreecrew

He doesn’t want to come out and say it. He wants to manipulate me into saying it.

Anybody who knows anything about Dan Wolfe recognizes the pattern.

I have a lot more to say about this. But you should know that, in my opinion, John Reid’s little facade of being pro-Weiner is crap. (I was always going to tell you that, but I wanted to let the guy talk. I gathered a lot of information in those talks. I could have gathered more if he had not been driven away.) And if I’m right about him being Patriot — and I don’t know that to be the case, but I have plenty of evidence that he is — then this was a premeditated plot by someone against Weiner.

Including everything John and Nikki Reid ever did.

UPDATE: I found the chat where Reid first tries to manipulate me, Dan Wolfe style, into saying that he should re-evaluate Weiner. What he didn’t realize is that, because of numerous “tells,” I was already onto him. Details here.

[Posted by Karl]

Some of what follows was sparked by a Saturday night Twitter conversation with HotAir’s Allahpundit and GOP fundraiser/consultant Nathan Wurtzel.  I mention this to credit them with any insight, but they should not get any blame for my further speculation.

Today’s political headline appeears to be fmr. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty ending his campaign after a disappointing finish in the Iowa straw poll on Saturday.  It is a smart end to what I thought became a fundamentally misguided campaign.  With fmr. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney the putative national frontrunner, the current basic dynamic of the campaign is Romney vs. Not Romney.  Pawlenty’s apparent strategy was to become Not Romney by campaigning against Iowa caucus frontrunner Rep. Michelle Bachmann, instead of highlighting his own advantages over Romney.  That strategy failed.  Fortunately for the following speculation, Pawlenty gained so little traction in the race that his departure is largely a non-factor.

After the straw poll, I was responding on Twitter to some hypothetical questions Allahpundit posed about the Iowa caucuses, when Nathan noted that South Carolina is a much more important state for the primary campaign.  I think he’s right on a number of levels, although I will go a bit further down the road to Florida. 

Given how dependent caucuses are on ground organization, Bachmann is the likely winner in Iowa, even if Sarah Palin gets in; the interesting story will be who ends up between her and Romney (who is not making a serious play there) in the final tally.  Similarly, New Hampshire is likely a lock for Romney.  There hsn’t been a poll there in over a month, but the most recent one (from Dem firm PPP) puts Bachmann six points behind, even if Palin stays out.  That seems consistent with New Hampshire’s general reputation and Romney’s near-favorite son status there.

That brings us to South Carolina, a state both bigger than Iowa or New Hampshire and more in line overall with the GOP’s electoral coalition, both ideologically and geographically.  Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s belated entry into the race likely dictated that he would announce there, as previous nominees McCain and Bush both won that state.  It is a bit less conservative than it was in the late 80s and early 90s, so one question is whether Romney might eke out a narrow victory over a closely bunched field of more conservative candidates — Bachmann, Perry and perhaps Palin.  A win in South Carolina could go a long way toward sewing up the race for Romney.

However, if Perry does not embarrass himself in Iowa and New Hampshire, he has a good shot at launching a successful campaign and eclipsing Bachmann in South Carolina.  Although Perry lagged Bachmann significantly in the most recent poll, that poll is close to a month old (on the other hand, it does not break out numbers for what happens if Palin stays out).  Moreover, as Ramesh Ponnuru notes, the GOP has a history of nominating “the next person in line,” but also a history of nominating candidates with executive experience from the South and the West.  Implicit is that the GOP does not have a history of nominating candidates from the House of Representatives.

Should Perry or Bachmann win in South Carolina, the next big tilt is Florida, where the 2008 GOP primaries were largely settled.  The most recent poll (from Quinnipiac) still has Romney comfortably ahead there, but also shows Bachmann is more hurt by Perry’s entry than she would be by Palin getting in.  This would again tend to point toward a Romney-Perry race developing, but only if Romney cannot sew things up by the end of January.  

A corrollary — and the lesson of Pawlenty’s failure —  is that the Not Romney field will have to get more aggressive soon about Romney’s weaknesses as a candidate, e.g., RomneyCare, his flip-flopping, the downside of his business dealings, if Romney is to be stopped.  The race is currently Mitt’s to lose, but most of the reasons whay he lost to the near-dead McCain in 2008 may return to drag him down as more people start paying attention.   The first two of the aforementioned weaknesses in particular would rob the GOP of opportunities to draw contrasts with Pres. Obama in a general election (which could become important if the economy ever emerges from its current stagnation).  On the other hand, the GOP needs a candidate who is competitive with Obama in places like Florida — as Romney currently is.  At the moment, a look at the general election campaign suggests the GOP’s best chance to win is with a map that looks much like G. W. Bush’s in 2000.  If I recall correctly, Florida was fairly important to that map.

–Karl