Patterico's Pontifications

8/8/2011

Gallup: Obama state approval numbers show a fluid map

Filed under: General — Karl @ 7:13 pm



[Posted by Karl]

Presidential elections are won by electoral votes, not popular ones. Gallup has released state-by-state approval numbers for Pres. Obama, based on daily tracking data from January through June, consisting of nearly 90,000 interviews nationally. The numbers suggest a fluid race in 2012.

On the surface, the numbers look bad for Obama. The president’s approval rating is 50% or higher in only 16 states, plus the District of Columbia (of course). Those states represent only 215 of the 270 electoral votes needed for election.

However, Obama could pick up the necessary electoral votes by winning the next four states — Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida and Georgia — where Obama has had 47-49% approval.

Most people reading that last sentence immediately recognize the limitations of the poll, which is of adults, rather than registered or likely voters. Obama is not likely to win Georgia, and polls show Obama in trouble in Florida and Iowa (where the Obama bus tour is headed, coincidentally). Conversely, most observers would give Obama a chance in states like Virginia, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado (no recent poll), and Oregon, where Obama has worse approval numbers with adults now.

In short, the new Gallup numbers are interesting but do not contain any results likely to change anyone’s opinion of Obama’s prospects for re-election.

–Karl

19 Responses to “Gallup: Obama state approval numbers show a fluid map”

  1. For a more accurate representation of Teh Won’s chances, we’ll have to wait for a state-by-state poll by Rasmussen, with analysis by Barone.

    AD-RtR/OS! (b759aa)

  2. For a more accurate representation of Teh Won’s chances, we’ll have to wait for a state-by-state poll by Rasmussen, with analysis by Barone.

    Hilarious, somehow I don’t think accuracy is your number @1 concern.

    Spartacvs (2d9449)

  3. Sparty would not know accuracy if it crawled out his weinerhole and smacked him in the face.

    JD (318f81)

  4. I refuse to believe we will ever win Pennsylvania. They are going to drop $100 million there anyway.

    VA, FL, OH I think are ours. I think that’s enough, but of course it’s very early.

    Dustin (b7410e)

  5. When considering various electoral vote maps and scenarios, keep in mind that wth the current House makeup, the Republican candidate needs only 269.

    aunursa (f1f4c4)

  6. Has anyone run the numbers yet to compose a plausible scenario where Obama wins a solid majority of the popular vote (not a plurality like Gore won) but loses pretty big in the electoral vote? Imagine Obama winning by a 55% to 45% margin over the Republican nominee in California, New York, Vermont, D.C., Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Illinois, Oregon, and Hawaii, and wins by a smaller 51-52% to 49-48% in Washington, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, and Wisconsin.

    Now, let’s say the rest of the states all go for the Republican candidate but by smaller margins, with a lot of battleground states (Florida, Virginia, Iowa, Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania) all squeaking out GOP wins by less than 1%.

    Could we possibly end up with a scenario where Obama wins the 18 states listed above by an 8 million vote margin, but loses the other 32 states by a combined 4 million vote margin? Obama would win the popular vote by a net of 4 million votes, but by my calculations he would lose the electoral vote by a whopping 325-215 margin.

    Check out the Real Clear Politics interactive map to get a sense for the various possibilities. Can you imagine the caterwauling from the left if this scenario were to come to pass?

    JVW (4d72aa)

  7. Check out the Real Clear Politics interactive map to get a sense for the various possibilities. Can you imagine the caterwauling from the left if this scenario were to come to pass?

    It would be awesome.

    Michael Ejercito (64388b)

  8. No, it would not be awesome; it would saddle the incoming Republican president with a stigma of illegitimacy and lack of a mandate for radical changes, that would haunt her entire term. That’s why I held my nose and voted for Bush in 2004; I wanted him not just to win but to win with a clear majority of the popular vote, so nobody could say that he had no mandate to prosecute the war.

    Milhouse (ea66e3)

  9. Anything short of political annihilation for Obama will be a terrible outcome. Politicians must be convinced their careers depend on taking America in a different direction.

    Dustin (b7410e)

  10. I’m praying to God Almighty that whoever the Rep. nominee will be, he or she will win and win big. If he/she doesn’t, and I’m perfectly serious, I’m going to the barricades. I’m talking Counter revolution!

    DV (f061d9)

  11. #10 – Start your revolution. I’ll make a picnic lunch and watch. I’ll be cheering you on, though.

    Summit, NJ (75c9eb)

  12. Some seem shocked that Obama’s approvals remain so high at this time. Let me remind you that 47% pay no federal income tax. Do not expect Obama approvals to drop as low as Bush ever regardless of how bad he fails.

    Dennis D (e0b996)

  13. Tax changes need to make sure that every one has skin in the game even if it is only $10 a month… It is ridiculous that people who have TVs don’t pay ANY federal income tax and it is not right. Either pay some tax and get skin in the game or give up your voting privileges in order to avoid paying taxes. No one should be able to avoid taxes their entire life and still be allowed to vote. (unless they were disabled in service to our country) period!

    Texas Mom 2012 (cee89f)

  14. I say poll schmoll
    Zero “Debt Man Walking” in
    haikutopia

    ColonelHaiku (d1f5ff)

  15. Two aides loaded his Teleprompter with 1,531 words. And off Obama went, as he so often does. If you listened to his words, they sounded fine, although dragging the slain U.S. soldiers in at the end of fiscal remarks felt forced.

    But if you read the full statement, as anyone could right here on The Ticket, you kept waiting for the point, the real rhetorical reason for the remarks. Like a grand restaurant with the most romantic atmosphere, crackling fireplace, flickering candles, exquisite place settings. And with impressive style the waiter proudly serves an empty plate — and awaits your awe.

    Trouble is, real leadership is more than talking and calling for things. It takes a while, but over time listeners begin to notice rote rhetoric, predictable patterns, empty words. An example:

    ian cormac (81c5c2)

  16. Dead Meat has no cavalry in reserve, events are entirely lined up to the negative. Who can he kill over Halloween to give him an instantaneous 10 point bump?

    ‘Throw the bums out’ now more than ever.

    gary gulrud (790d43)

  17. CBS NEWS POLL

    Handling of Debt Ceiling Negotiations:

    Pecentage of DISAPPROVAL:

    Obama – 48%
    Democrats – 58%
    Republicans – 71%

    If you want to talk about bad polls numbers, check out the tea party.

    Dr. G (771c3a)

  18. DR G is a hate-filled angry spittle flecked hater.

    JD (822109)

  19. The only poll that counts is the election. Obama will be history. Bet on it.

    Summit, NJ (75c9eb)


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