Patterico's Pontifications

10/15/2010

Friday Night Comment Bait–O’Donnell Down by Only 11?

Filed under: General — Aaron Worthing @ 2:31 pm



[Guest post by Aaron Worthing]

I thought to myself “that can’t be right.”  But its Rasmussen, which I consider one of the more reliable outlets.

If I had to guess, it is probably because of this ad more than anything.  That line about taxing 911 calls is harsh.

[Posted and authored by Aaron Worthing.]

35 Responses to “Friday Night Comment Bait–O’Donnell Down by Only 11?”

  1. Well, it’s certainly interesting. I think certain of her views and positions aren’t helpful with Delaware’s electorate, but the fact is she’s an articulate speaker and that counts for something.

    Hopefully this poll is not an outlier … nor the end of any movement in her direction.

    She should spend her war chest and use this to petition the NRSC (in that order).

    Christoph (8ec277)

  2. Delaware is a very small state, as we all know, so this kind of movement is stunning at this point. I’d have expected these candidates’ messages to have reached most of the voters many times by now.

    Is there any kind of source on how much spending she’s been doing thus far? I wouldn’t dare pretend I could do a better job than the people running her campaign right now. This is very impressive performance considering the candidate they have to work with.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  3. If she actually manages to pull this one out that will mean a complete and total annihilation of the Democratic Party. If the early exit polls come in favorably towards her, then watch out for the rest of the country. A flawed candidate such as this winning would be the repudiation of all repudiations.

    Dmac (84da91)

  4. “… a complete and total annihilation of the Democratic Party.”

    Not to mention some eating of crow within libertarian ranks.

    I still don’t think she can do it, but if not just an outlier, that was a credible increase in a short period of time.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  5. If she loses, and she probably will, some of the people who will need to shoulder part of the blame is Rove, Krauthammer, Castle, the DE GOP, and the NRSC.

    Here’s a good article about it.

    http://www.redstate.com/aarongardner/2010/10/15/delawares-problem-isnt-christine-odonnell/

    RefudiateObama2012 (a19d3e)

  6. Take a look at Rasmussen Reports polling history in this race at RCP. They’ve always had a Coons v. O’Donnell matchup in the 10% range.

    8/5 poll; Coons 46%-36%
    9/15 poll; Coons 53%-42&
    9/27 poll; Coons 49%-40% (with Castle getting about 5% when he was considering a write in bid)
    10/14 poll; Coons 51%-40%

    In short, this poll is consistent with the polling Rasmussen Reports has been doing throughout the race (ie, there’s been no post debate bounce for O’Donnell).

    BBC (2143ad)

  7. As I have said here before, it all depends on the size of the wave. If it is big, I think she could win. What is astonishing is that Whitman and Simon are well behind in California. Jerry Brown was a disaster in the 1970s ! This is like Dracula returns.

    Mike K (568408)

  8. “In short, this poll is consistent with the polling Rasmussen Reports has been doing throughout the race (ie, there’s been no post debate bounce for O’Donnell).”

    Ah hell. Well I’ll tell you what’s going to happen on November 16th then.

    Christoph (8ec277)

  9. “Jerry Brown was a disaster in the 1970s!”

    Do you have any evidence that California doesn’t prefer to elect disastrous governments?

    Christoph (8ec277)

  10. Jerry Brown as gov, again?

    Does that mean Linda Ronstadt will return as queen of rock ballads?

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  11. His rating is lower than the last time, without Castle in the race, but slightly higher than the initial poll, the Rasmussen did after the primary, overall their really hasn’t been much movement one way or another, within the Rasmussen poll

    ian cormac (6709ab)

  12. Does that mean Linda Ronstadt will return as queen of rock ballads?

    have you seen her recently?

    she is now the band of rock ballads….

    King of Snark (fb8750)

  13. Whitman is going to miss her millions when Moonbeam beats her. Worst campaign money can buy.

    Patricia (9b018a)

  14. “…What is astonishing is that Whitman and Simon are well behind…”

    Mike K, that’s Fiorina.
    Carly Simon is still looking for someone not quite as vain as she.

    AD-RtR/OS! (8eb9dc)

  15. I’m going to say the enthusiasm gap in DE could be worth 5 points or so. If O’Donnell is behind by 5 points on election night… then she has a shot of actually winning.

    If she loses, and she probably will, some of the people who will need to shoulder part of the blame is Rove, Krauthammer, Castle, the DE GOP, and the NRSC.

    She got tons more funding because of those people. Also, a TON of her supporters have been extremely hostile to the very people O’Donnell needs support from, forcing them to reiterate the case against O’Donnell after the primary. It’s not like conservatives really WANT to bash Coons’s opponent after the primary. Every time I’ve had to explain O’donnell’s problems has been when someone rhetorically forces that issue out.

    In other words, it’s not that simple. If O’Donnell wasn’t capable of winning, that’s on her. It’s called responsibility.

    However, I think I totally miscalculated her ability to win. It was an honest mistake, whether she wins or loses. If you want to litigate that issue now, like many O’donnell supporters, you’re not helping her win, are you?

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  16. Well they did stab her in the back, it comes with the territory I guess, her message is the right one for the times unlike 2006 and 2008, when she was caught in the downdraft. Now the choice is do you want someone who will cut and run on Afghanistan, who will raise every tax in the book, impose every
    ball and chain on the US economy, or someone who won’t do that.

    ian cormac (6709ab)

  17. ian, how dare you advance the argument in such clear, concise terms.
    Have you no shame, Sir?

    AD-RtR/OS! (8eb9dc)

  18. ___________________________________________

    some of the people who will need to shoulder part of the blame is Rove, Krauthammer, Castle, the DE GOP, and the NRSC.

    But most of the blame has to fall on the shoulders of, number one, O’Donnell, since she has run unsuccessfully for the Senate before, and, most crucially, been fully aware of her checkered history.

    And then, number two, the various people of Delaware who voted for her—or at least the ones who marked their ballot for her with sincere intentions and not to be sneaky and make the race easier for the Democrats.

    Do you have any evidence that California doesn’t prefer to elect disastrous governments?

    A lot of the people of California observe places like France, Greece and Mexico and proclaim “we want that!! We wanna be just like them!”

    An even more leftwing “Golden State” will help seal its fate. But that’s a good thing for the other states in America that want the playing field to be as easy and even as possible for themselves.

    Mark (411533)

  19. You excuse the obvious self destructive tendencies in California and Delaware, why is that, there is no advantage in this, in fact in the end we will
    likely have to assume the cost of their irresponsibility

    ian cormac (6709ab)

  20. If she loses, and she probably will, some of the people who will need to shoulder part of the blame is Rove, Krauthammer, Castle, the DE GOP, and the NRSC.

    All Rove and Krauthammer did was express their opinions.

    Gerald A (0843ed)

  21. Mark,

    What worries me about California is I fear politicians will argue, perhaps successfully, that we have to bail California out because it’s “too big to fail.”

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  22. California may be too big to fail, but all bailing it out will accomplish is set it up to fail again.

    I look at the demonstrations in Paris, that is what we have to look forward to here.

    As a Californian, I believe the only thing that ~might~ teach us anything is being forced to cope with failure ourselves. It will be ugly.

    jodetoad (7720fb)

  23. ____________________________________

    DRJ and ian, we in California deserve to be given the ultimate in tough love.

    In November, if we continue the pattern of idiotically believing that liberalism makes us such a kind, caring and sophisticated state — when, in reality, it does nothing more than make us look like a bunch of suckers and fools, moving us that much closer to Third-World Banana Republic-ism — we deserve what’s coming to us.

    Mark (411533)

  24. But tough love requires someone to implement it and if California elects Brown and/or Boxer, I’m certain the Obama Administration will do everything possible to bail California out.

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  25. For whatever reason I can’t begin to imagine, the people of California, apparently, would rather try the failed policies of a geriatric hippie rather than something that works.

    But, hey, it’s their state.

    However, the poor, old, ignorant, racist, mouth-breathers in the middle states are a bit tired of financing the high ideas of the East and West Coasts that do nothing to help people who really need help.

    No one in this corrupt nation is starving. But there are plenty of people, smart people, who need help in realizing the American dream.

    It worries, and saddens me, that so many look, live and strive for a life in California, when Californians have rejected the life that America affords.

    Ag80 (743fd1)

  26. ^ From that standpoint, ALL Americans will be saps and suckers in November if Californians stay true to form in the polling place and dreamily think: “voting for liberals and liberal causes means I’m a wonderful, generous, highly evolved human being!!”

    Mark (411533)

  27. jodetoad,

    You’re so right about the consequences of bailing Cali out. If that happens, we will have learned absolutely nothing and continue on this road of deceptive spin, “Its a revenue problem, not a spending problem”.

    Dana (8ba2fb)

  28. #20, I think the point of #5 is that establishment republicans are partially responsible for her struggles.

    Your point, while correct on its own, is not germane to the point being made in #5 . We all have the right to bad mouth her much as “they” have the right to build the mosque near Ground 0.

    javert (0a0c11)

  29. I see the blame is already being cast. Darn those RINOs! Rove’s only raised $50 million including several million for Angle, but if he honestly doesn’t think much of O’Donnell, it’s HIS fault if she loses.

    How much of her $5 million war chest will be spent? Judging by her activity in ads and events so far, not nearly all of it.

    But it’s always someone else’s fault for whiners, isn’t it?

    Adjoran (ec6a4b)

  30. 24.But tough love requires someone to implement it and if California elects Brown and/or Boxer, I’m certain the Obama Administration will do everything possible to bail California out.

    Comment by DRJ — 10/15/2010 @ 8:46 pm

    DRJ,

    I don’t think it will matter who wins – Obama is likely to do it.
    Not sure if you remember the details of the BRAC and Ca in 1996 but if interested:

    http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/schwalbe.html

    In the initial stages of the 1995 BRAC round, the Air Force indicated that it wanted to keep all five of its air logistics centers (ALCs), most of which were operating at half capacity. The 1995 BRAC Commission rejected the Air Force proposal to realign the maintenance-depot work, and instead proposed closing the Sacramento and San Antonio ALCs, the two rated least efficient of the five depots. However, these two ALCs are in high electoral states, California and Texas, hence, were prime candidates for political interference. In this case, President Bill Clinton weighed in claiming that the BRAC commission recommendations ignored the heavy economic impact of such closures on the two communities. According to Copley national security news reporter Otto Kreisher, “During his reelection campaign, President Clinton promised to shield the vote-rich states of California and Texas from the decisions of the 1995 commission…. [He] ordered the Air Force to launch a competition that would ‘privatize in place’ a major part of the jobs at the two depots….”32 It does not matter that the two ALCs were eventually closed by 2001 according to the 1995 BRAC Commission recommendation, President Clinton abused the BRAC process by using it for political gain. This was a key reason the BRAC process was not revisited for almost a decade following the 1995 BRAC despite the need to reduce the military infrastructure even more.33

    VOR2 (2a8af5)

  31. I don’t know how much TV ads cost, and I don’t watch much TV, but if we have the TV on for more than 1/2 hour here in Philly I’ve seen at least one O’Donnell ad, more frequently than I see Coons ads; though I admit it is a small sample based on a limited variety of channels and shows. For example, I don’t think I’ve seen an ad for either on Qubo. 🙂

    MD in Philly (3d3f72)

  32. Mike K, that’s Fiorina.
    Carly Simon is still looking for someone not quite as vain as she.

    Comment by AD-RtR/OS!

    All Carlys look alike to me.

    Mike K (568408)

  33. VOR2,

    I’m not sure I agree. It seems to me that Obama would have more incentive to help California if it’s elected leaders are Democrats than if they were Republicans, just as I suspect he won’t hesitate to blame a GOP House for whatever goes wrong in the next 2 years.

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  34. It’s upset Saturday with Wisconsin toppling #1 Ohio State, Texas over #5 Nebraska, and Kentucky beating #10 South Carolina. Maybe the O’Donnell-Coons race will be another upset.

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  35. In case you were wondering, the crosstabs to the Delaware Rasmussen poll show O’Donnell effectively tied with Coons among indies and winning more crossover support from Democrats than Coons is winning from Republicans. The best sign from the Rasmussen poll is that the sample Rasmussen used found a much greater disparity between the percentage of the electorate that is comprised of Democrats and the percentage of the electorate that is comprised of Republicans than what it will be in all likelihood on election day.

    ian cormac (6709ab)


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