Patterico's Pontifications


Israeli Attack on Iran may be Imminent (Updated)

Filed under: International,War — DRJ @ 7:21 pm

[Guest post by DRJ]

There are reports Israel is preparing to attack Iran:

“Iran’s Fars News Agency said the Israeli military aircraft landed 10 days ago at the Saudi base near the city of Tabuk, located in northwest Saudi Arabia, one of the closest areas in the oil kingdom to Iran.

Fars said that the Tabuk base will be the central station for an Israeli attack on Iran. It quoted an Islamic news site that a commercial airline passenger said the airport in Tabuk was closed to all other traffic during the alleged Israeli landings. The passenger said that “no reasonable explanation” was given for shutting down the airport and those passengers were compensated financially and booked in four-star hotels.

“The relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel have become the talk of the town,” the passenger added. The chief authority in Tabuk, Prince Fahd ben Sultan, was reported be coordinating the cooperation with Israel.

Iran’s government-funded Press TV reported that the Revolutionary Guards began closely patrolling the Islamic Republic’s northwestern border after noticing the American forces, which Iran claimed also included Israeli troops. Azerbaijan’s independent Trend news site also reported on Wednesday that American armed forces are in the country, which is in an armed conflict with rebels.

Revolutionary Guards Brigadier General Mehdi Moini said Tuesday that his forces are mobilized “due to the presence of American and Israeli forces on the western border.” The Guards reportedly have called in tanks and anti-aircraft units to the area in what amounts to a war alert.”

I didn’t think the U.S. was sending 12 warships including the Eisenhower and the Truman to the Middle East just to deal with the Gaza Flotilla.

Thanks to aunursa.


UPDATE— CIA Director Leon Panetta today on ABC’s This Week:

“CIA Director Leon Panetta says Iran probably has enough low-enriched uranium for two nuclear weapons, but that it likely would take two years to build the bombs.

Panetta also says he is doubtful that recent U.N. penalties will put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

A lot seems to be coming together at the same time and all of it is focused at Iran.

48 Responses to “Israeli Attack on Iran may be Imminent (Updated)”

  1. I updated the post.

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  2. I would bet the Israelis have a better idea of where Iran is with their bomb than the CIA.

    Past performance of the American intelligence agency with regards to Iran and the ME does not inspire confidence. Under Bush the CIA seemed to have their own political agenda.

    MU789 (9780db)

  3. Given the staggering incompetence of the current administration combined with its preference for our enemies rather than allies, I would believe that our naval and land forces are preparing to defend Iran from Israel rather than the other way around.

    At any rate, it is impossible imagine Obama and his circle being able make timely decisions about Israeli actions.

    iconoclast (fb10de)

  4. Godspeed, Israel, if this is really an imminent attack.

    I also wouldn’t count on the CIA. After all, they Iranians didn’t even have a program recently if you believe their politically oriented crap.

    Things could get out of hand very quickly, yet this is a dirty chore that we have left undone for far too long.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  5. I always put absolute faith in everything that official Iranian news agency says myself. I don’t know about the rest of you.

    daleyrocks (1d0d98)

  6. Heh. Excellent point, daleyrocks, but I still think something might be up after the Times’ report 2 weeks ago that Saudi Arabia would “stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities.”

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  7. If Israel moves on Iran, I sure hope the Obama administration supports Israel.

    RB (198d7e)

  8. Mossad knows exactly where the Iranians are building the nuclear weapons.

    marie (02b253)

  9. Anyone think that if it works out Obama was saving the attack for when he needed it?

    Bradnsa (980254)

  10. I guess the Israelis didn’t want to wait until October. I just hope that Obama doesn’t promise support, then renege as action is underway as Kennedy did at the Bay of Pigs.

    Kevin Murphyr (5ae73e)

  11. Don’t rely on any Iranian news wires, they lie rather brazenly. There simply are not any Israeli troops in Iraq and not any Israeli aircraft in SA.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  12. This is horse-hocky foreign policy by the “only remaining super power”. If there is an attack and it succeeds, then hey, the administration can pretend it was right there behind brave little Israel all the way. But if it fails or spawns catastrophic repercussions B.O. will scold, “We had nutten to do with it. We wanted to give sanctions a chance to work”.

    elissa (7df0ad)

  13. OTOH, the Fars report is strange since Tabuk is on the west coast near Israel and the Red Sea, and no closer to Iran than Israel itself.

    Now, if they were staging from King Khalid Military City, I’d be more inclined to believe it.

    Kevin Murphyr (5ae73e)

  14. Panetta also says he is doubtful that recent U.N. penalties will put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

    At least Panetta is honest enough to publicly admit what everyone and their brother already know: The penalties mean nothing to Iran. They will proceed accordingly.

    Dana (1e5ad4)

  15. haiku think man who
    wear Members Only® jacket
    soiling Undaroos®?

    ColonelHaiku (9cf017)

  16. RB: If Israel moves on Iran, I sure hope the Obama administration supports Israel

    What’s disturbing is that we would even have to wonder in the first place.

    aunursa (484069)

  17. Perhaps this is an effort to make SA’s complicity with Israel seem more substantial than merely not shooting their planes down if they overfly en route.

    Perhaps Iran thinks SA is less likely to help or stand aside if they will be credited with the attack too.

    I see things differently. I think SA would love to take partial credit for humbling Iran.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  18. I can’t believe Israel will attempt any military maneuver with Obama and all the goofus leftists surrounding him in the White House. After all, this is the same guy who was so ass-backwards about Zelayo and the Honduran government. So how can the Israeli government trust giving Obama confidential information related to a strike on Iran? On strategies that involve any hot-button sabotage of Iran?

    I’m sure the Israelis certainly will want to draw the line on letting Obama see top-secret info regarding their plans in handling the Palestinians.

    Mark (411533)

  19. Let’s see, how do we plan this. If we give him information, he’ll leak it to the Iranians, unless he thinks we want him to, in which case he’ll tell everyone. So, the plan is …, and we tell him …, so that ….

    htom (412a17)

  20. Latest Fars report
    ahmadinejad girlfriend
    sneak midnight visit

    ColonelHaiku (9cf017)

  21. until it shows up in the price of oil I don’t believe this sort of chitter chatter but if we see oil spike Monday then hmmm I will say.

    That’s what I will say. Hmmm. Just like that.

    happyfeet (19c1da)

  22. the only thing i can see is Ear Leader ordering US planes to prevent the IAF from flying across Iraqi airspace, by force, if necessary.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  23. DRJ @6 – Don’t get me wrong, I would have absolutely no objection to Israel taking out Iran’s recently discovered nuclear weapons program, along with the Mad Mullahs and Members Only Midget. Obama’s folks could even be talking to Hamas to let them know their sponsor is about to get nailed.

    The Obama Administration has made so many consistently wrong-footed foreign policy moves, however, apart from sheer dumb luck, I see no reason for them to finally get one right. The G8/G20 meetings would have been a good time to clue our allies, to the extent we have any left, into our thinking.

    daleyrocks (1d0d98)

  24. I think this may be a false flag to get Iran to turn around its 2 war ships from the Gaza flotilla. Israel may not have enough big bunker buster bombs if we did not ship them covertly recently. What happens the day after Israel bombs Iran, they have a war on 2 boarders and Iran sending missiles into Israel. I don’t see any reports in the papers saying that Israel is staging its military. For Israel to strike Iran it must first set up for the counter strike.

    Sanmon (319c0c)

  25. Even is chiming in on this.

    “Samson Option”: Israel’s Choice in Absence of Choice?

    This is the sort of observation I’d expect from DebkaFile, which is a little far out. This is outside the normal range of article on IslamWatch.

    Something may indeed be brewing. Faced with an existential threat, will Israel accept the Holocaust or the Sampson option. Is there any other path open today?


    JD (9ac83d)

  26. __________________________________

    In light of things like the following, whatever option is on the table, we’re facing a Hobson’s Choice., Cheryl Hauer:

    …Muslims, it seems have a messiah, too, called the Mahdi. Many in the United States and around the world who became students of Islam after the terrorist attacks on America on September 11, 2001 were shocked to discover that Muslims were expecting the Mahdi at any moment. Even more alarming was the revelation that Islamic fundamentalists saw terrorism as a legitimate means through which his arrival could be hastened.

    However, many in the less scholarly element of the world population only became aware of Islam’s messianic expectations on September 20, 2006, when Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad stood before the United Nations and the world community and prayed for the Mahdi’s hasty return. His prayer received a great deal of media attention, with a shocked international community reacting to his overt declarations that there can be no peace on earth until the Mahdi arrives to usher it in, beginning his speech by saying: “In the name of Allah, the Compassionate, the Merciful. Praise be to Allah and peace be upon Prophet Mohammad and his infallible household and chosen disciples. O Allah, hasten the reappearance of the imam of the times and grant to us victory and prosperity. Include us among his followers and martyrs.”

    [Ahmadinejad] is a man driven by religious fervor, believing beyond question that the Islamic savior is about to return, and it is his personal mandate to prepare the way. According to members of his cabinet, he is a man who is “being inspired by God.” Ayatollah Khamenei has referred to his election to the presidency as “an answer to the prayers of the Lord of the Age.”

    The term Mahdi means “guided one,” and Islamic eschatology says he will arrive on earth before the coming of the Day of Resurrection or Day of Judgment. He is the prophesied redeemer of Islam who will rid the world of error, injustice, and tyranny.

    Ahmadinejad has made it clear that he is committed to making Iran the platform for the appearance of the “lord of the age.” There are then two imperatives for the helpers of the Mahdi: to hasten his coming through various acts of obedience and to make sure that the country of Iran is ready to take its place at the head of the nations when the Mahdi arrives to establish his one-world government and make Islam the religion of the entire globe.

    Any act that defies the spirit of the current age and its immoral, repressive, and materialistic lifestyle will help to hasten the coming of the Mahdi…. Therefore, acts of defiance against Western nations that are seen as the architects of evil are viewed not only as positive but necessary. The acquisition of nuclear weapons, the elimination of Israel, the destruction of Western democracies, and an end to the United States as a superpower are all preconditions to the arrival of the Islamic savior.

    Many who ascribe to Ahmadinejad’s brand of messianism quote hadith [oral traditions regarding the words and deeds of Muhammad] that refer to the state of the world into which the Mahdi will come: one of ruin, spiritual darkness, and catastrophe. Even the faithful will fall away, and there will be worldwide war and chaos.

    The Iranian president is convinced of the superiority of Islam and believes that the Koran calls on believers to wage war against unbelievers in order to pave the way for the Mahdi. Even Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has stated that the justice of the Mahdi for the world will not be attained through preaching and admonition but rather through confrontation.

    In his article, “The Mystical Menace of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” author Daniel Pipes summed it up well when he commented that the most dangerous leaders in modern history are those (such as Hitler) equipped with a totalitarian ideology and a mystical belief in their own mission. Ahmadinejad, with his obsession with mahdaviat, fulfills both criteria. Add to that a nuclear arsenal, and the implications for the free world are more than ominous.

    Mark (411533)

  27. Well, Israel could always declare war on the US …

    Only problem with that is – with the current US C-in-C, there’s no guarantee that Israel would lose …

    And *then* what ?

    Alasdair (205079)

  28. “Panetta also says he is doubtful that recent U.N. penalties will put an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

    Not a problem. The usual people will just push for even more ineffective sanctions.

    Blacque Jacques Shellacque (e55c05)

  29. two off topic comments.

    1) Robert Byrd has died. Now the Senate is officially Klan-free!

    2) This is a really interesting/horrifying article. via instapundit.

    Aaron Worthing (A.W.) (f97997)

  30. I think this may be a false flag to get Iran to turn around its 2 war ships from the Gaza flotilla.

    They turned around a couple of days ago after Israel said they would confiscate the ships.

    Mike K (82f374)

  31. CIA Director Leon Panetta says Iran probably has enough low-enriched uranium for two nuclear weapons, but that it likely would take two years to build the bombs.

    Oh sure – at least two years, maybe more. What utter bullpucky.

    Dmac (ab1849)

  32. Two thoughts.

    1) in regard to this thread is this even the kind of story that should be reported? i mean, gee, if iran wanted to preemptively strike to stop the isrealis, now they know where to hit. Then again, in WWII it would have been actually patriotic to report on the whereabouts of Patton just prior to D-Day, becuase he was part of a deliberate head fake. But still, this doesn’t sit well with me.

    2) okay, no more klan-related snark. Sorry if that seems in poor taste, but I take the fact he was in the KKK and only possibly reformed almost personally. Discrimination pisses me off, and terrorism, does too. I think frankly he endangered his immortal soul with that conduct.

    Aaron Worthing (e7d72e)

  33. Wag the Dog.

    Regret (24977d)

  34. The presence of two US Carrier Battle Groups is more suggestive than anything else, along with repeated rumblings by Israel that they will take care of the Iranian nuke problem themselves if diplomatic solutions fail. The Iranian sources must be taken with a grain of salt. The Saudis, or any other muslim nation, for that matter, would not likely be complicit in helping Israel strike Iran. That would launch a hailstorm of retaliatory attacks from extremist groups, something the Saudis have been careful to avoid. Israel is capable of launching airstrikes against Iran from within their own borders. Since we’ve been in Afghanistan Iran has been paranoid that we’re massing troops on their border for an invasion and repeatedly reports we’re doing so. I read another report last night, again from an Iranian source, stating the US and Israel were massing troops and/or materiel in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey as well. Unless Hell is under a frost advisory I think we can safely dismiss these claims.

    Mark Z (d4144f)

  35. The IRG is complaining about US/Israeli troops on Iran’s NORTHWESTERN border – that’s Kurdistan!
    I seriously doubt that we have anything more than training personnel or SpecOps types along that section of border; but, if that’s what they wish to be paranoid about, so much the better.

    Saudi-Iranian relations can be a severe contradiction of the saying about enemies and friends. In this case the greater enemy to the al-Saud family is(are) the Mullahs of Teheran; whereas, the Israeli’s are a lessor enemy so are eligible to be (in this case) a friend.
    The Saudi Royal Family is nothing if not an astute participant in geo-politics, and will find and discard “friends” as their self-interest demands.

    AD - RtR/OS! (7166b6)

  36. The Tehran government, especially under the current leader, is major threat to the Saudis. Israel is no threat at all. The royals in Saudi Arabia are smart enough to understand this.

    Have Blue (854a6e)

  37. “They turned around a couple of days ago after Israel said they would confiscate the ships.

    Comment by Mike K — 6/28/2010 @ 5:41 am ”

    there are new rumblings that Iran will do it anyway.

    Kinda like the bully in high school who is scared of the courageous kid but eventually is shamed into fighting. We’ll see.

    Dustin (b54cdc)

  38. Say, how come Republican presidents have to get Congress to OK military action (Kuwait, Iraq) but Democrat presidents don’t (Kosovo, Iran)?

    Actually, that’s not completely fair — Clinton did put Kosovo to a vote in Congress, but when they turned him down (tie vote) he did it anyway.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b)

  39. Pray it’s no “Bay of Pigs” by this muslim-in-chief US administration

    Michael Gray (7660de)

  40. I does look like the attack on Irans nuclear sights is immanent, as all the conditions aere there. I beleave July 25-26 2010 are the most likley dates.

    j (50d4c5)

  41. That’s the time of a Full Moon.
    Are you sure that Israel would mount an air attack at such a time?

    AD - RtR/OS! (568b48)

  42. Russia and Iran is scheduled to commence the start-up of there new reactor this will take place during the Iranian month which begins on August 23, 2010. Israel must strike the reactor before start up so as not to spread radiation. Further they must strike before the uranium is on sight. Right now Iran & Hezbollah are planing a preemptive strike on Israel to preempt the preemptive strike on Iran by Israel. Needless to say things are getting ready to explode over there. Things are very immanent!!!!!

    jeff l. (4c692c)

  43. Israel is inhabited by cowards that will never attack anyone that can defend themselves. The jew race relies on having stupid people like the British and Americans kill and die for them. Iran isn’t the same as Gaza, where the Israeli jews can easily and often murder hundreds of unarmed women and children.

    When the USA finally goes bankrupt (thanks ironically to the jews) Israel will disappear and Palestine will live again.

    And the ONLY country that has been wiped off the map in the Middle East is Palestine, and that’s due to the jew.

    zakimar (ef1285)

  44. Israel is inhabited by cowards that will never attack anyone that can defend themselves.

    Indeed. We call those people “Palestinians”.

    The jew race relies on having stupid people like the British and Americans kill and die for them.

    The Egyptians of 1967 would beg to differ. It was only because “the Jews” didn’t want to be bothered with running two countries that Cairo wasn’t taken over. As it stands, all the land that is “disputed” now was gained during a counter-offensive after Israel was attacked.

    Iran isn’t the same as Gaza, where the Israeli jews can easily and often murder hundreds of unarmed women and children./blockquote>You’re cute, can I keep you?

    See, usually, a rational person would blame those using civilians as human shields for the deaths of those civilians.

    I mean, “the Jews” would warn the people living around weapons caches to leave because they were about to be attacked. If you don’t care about civilian casualties, you don’t do that, you just attack. Sadly, Hamas is less concerned about the people in their own country than the Israelis are. In fact, Hamas very much hopes for civilian casualties, so they can use them to dupe morons like you.

    When the USA finally goes bankrupt (thanks ironically to the jews)

    Hey now. I know that statistically Jews are more likely to vote Democrat than Republican, but I would hardly blame them alone for putting Democrats in power…

    Israel will disappear and Palestine will live again.

    I suspect that you will find that far more difficult than you were maybe first hoping…

    And the ONLY country that has been wiped off the map in the Middle East is Palestine, and that’s due to the jew.

    Well, the Jews, and the time-honored rule of “if you attack me, and we gain land when we push back, we get to keep that land.”

    It has been said before, but I will say it again to you now: If the rest of the Middle East would lay down it’s weapons, there would be peace. If Israel put down their weapons, there would be no more Israel.

    Scott Jacobs (041d9e)

  45. Even if the “holocaust” happened, it didn’t give any right for the thieving jews to steal Palestine as a “homeland”. But they didn’t try for a piece of Germany because the Germans are ARMED and would have really slaughtered them, so instead they chose to steal from farmers and shepherds. The jews have ALWAYS been thieves, practiced their evil usury and had innocent people murdered for opposing their crimes from the time of Isaac who stole what belonged to his half brother Ishmael to Jesus to ALL the crooks on Wall Street from Madoff to Greenspan.

    Mike Stewart (e42273)

  46. plus you know what else the jews make super tasty breakfast cereal for reals you don’t even need milk… do NOT sit down in front of the tv with a box of this stuff just pour yourself a little

    happyfeet (ab5779)

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