Patterico's Pontifications

5/30/2010

The North Korean Threat

Filed under: International — DRJ @ 3:20 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

I’ve been reading a lot about North Korea lately because it worries me. Austin Bay sums up my concerns:

“Kim can’t handle real sunshine — the truth. In the 60 years since the Korean War began, South Korea has decisively defeated North Korea in the social and economic spheres. Only in military terms, in the base destructive power of Pyongyang’s large armies and nascent nuclear weapons program, does the North challenge the South. War is all Kim has. Violence is how he controls his own people — assassination and threats of nuclear immolation are how he relates to the rest of the world.

As we enter the summer of 2010, the risk of all-out war on the Korean Peninsula is quite high, and possibly the highest it has been since the armistice was signed in 1953. The armistice suspended major combat — it is not a peace treaty. The situation is quite serious. It’s time to end the Korean War, and that means ending the Kim regime, not placating it. That’s the message to send Pyongyang. Until South Korea and the Obama administration face that fact, the wicked joke is on us.”

I hope there’s another way but unless China decides to be responsible, I don’t see it.

— DRJ

16 Responses to “The North Korean Threat”

  1. I recall consulting with Austin on a wargame simulating a modern Korean War during the early ’90’s … plus ca change …

    SPQR (26be8b)

  2. Sadly, I remember how the sentiment in the early 1990s was simply to wait out Kim Il-sung, as he was clearly failing physically. Then, when he died in 1994, the hope was that the next generation would be better, especially as the current leader had “known Western appetites” (attempt at delicacy).

    Now, here we are again in 2010, with this leader physically failing, hoping.

    jim2 (e64009)

  3. China will never abandon N. korea and obama is all about change and talk.One of his lines he used often to deplore capitalism was “then you are on your own”.S korea should get ready for the view from under the bus.

    clyde (eb1314)

  4. SPQR

    The Pennisula changed the world – at the turn of the 20th Century the Communists rose to power due to two defeats by the Japanese against the Czar Nikolas that destroyed the cream of his forces and left Russia open to invasion by the Germans and its consequent revolution as a result of the East Prussia defeats

    EricPWJohnson (cedf1d)

  5. I actually believe that China will have no choice but to intervene if things get out of hand, simply out of self – preservation. They cannot and will not handle millions of starving refugees streaming across the border, and the South would have a difficult enough time handling their own civilian casualties. The Hermit Kingdom will live on.

    Dmac (3d61d9)

  6. I think that’s the hope but I don’t see China doing anything.

    DRJ (d43dcd)

  7. That’s very true, an example of the demoralization caused by that defeat, is in the novel St. Petersburg by Bely,

    ian cormac (ee040c)

  8. China doesn’t want a war, especially for the like of the PDRK. They don’t want the mess and they’ll keep the North from starting one.

    JEA (e12133)

  9. JEA, don’t exaggerate the amount of control the Chinese have over North Korea.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  10. The Chinese have no control over the North

    EricPWJohnson (cedf1d)

  11. If things go pear-shaped at the DMZ, I suspect the Chinese would be ruthless enough to station a massive number of troops at the border with NK to keep the trickle of refugees to a minimum–they’ve got a UN veto to deflect any real consequences, and they’ve proven they’re more than willing to slaughter thousands to keep control. Also, in this one case it would be hard to blame them for not wanting to suffer for KJI’s insanity.

    M. Scott Eiland (f038ce)

  12. The Chinese and South Korea are firmly in agreement that they want nothing to do with the millions of starving NK refugees. THey will cooperate, no matter the talk about reunification and separated families, as long as they can.

    The information I have is that NK is basically run by warlords anyway and Kim does not control the army. They support him to avoid a civil war.

    Mike K (67e8ce)

  13. We have appearing and disappearing comments again.

    Mike K (67e8ce)

  14. It’s kind of amusing. I complained about comments disappearing and the disappeared comment reappears.

    Maybe it’s gremlins.

    Mike K (67e8ce)

  15. Since no one knows much about North Korea anyway, it’s fun to speculate and I like to have fun:

    From my vast resource of non-knowledge, the military pretty much represents whatever middle-class the nation has. As long as the ruling class and general staff can control the junior officers and non-coms, we’ll continue to go through these periods of hot and cold.

    But, I will give the NORKS credit for one thing:

    They have absolutely fulfilled the liberal dream of having a complete, subservient working class only beholden to the whims of the ruling government. Terror, starvation and ignorance does wonders for leveling the playing field.

    Ag80 (7aec3e)

  16. > I hope there’s another way but unless China decides to be responsible, I don’t see it.

    Don’t fool yourself. China has all the power here, and knows it. It is sure that the west is doing nothing but saber rattling (which it has correctly surmised is all the Obama admin, who is in the lead, is capable of).

    It is taking, or going to take, full advantage of this to get concessions on anything it wants in the international arena.

    China plays the LONG game. Don’t ever forget that.

    > I actually believe that China will have no choice but to intervene if things get out of hand, simply out of self – preservation. They cannot and will not handle millions of starving refugees streaming across the border,

    You ARE kidding, right?

    This is CHINA.

    In the previous century, they killed not less than FIFTY TO ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY ***million*** of their OWN citizens.

    What the hell makes you think they’ll hesitate to kill a bunch of “lousy NoKos” trying to cross the border illegally?

    The Chinese hate the Koreans almost as much as they do the Japanese. They’ll think of it as a genetic improvement program for the human race.

    IgotBupkis (79d71d)


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