Handicapping the House
[Guest post by DRJ]
It’s still a long way until November but ex-NRCC chairman Tom Davis says there’s an even chance the GOP could retake the House:
“Former Virginia congressman Tom Davis, who twice chaired the National Republican Congressional Committee, says the odds are “at least 50-50” that the GOP regains control of the U.S. House in November’s elections. And he notes the House has never flipped control from one party to the other unless the Senate did, too.
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He sees in particular a “Republican tsunami” in the South.“This is the third straight congressional election that’s been nationalized,” Davis says, a test not of individual candidates for the House and Senate but of broad voter judgments about the political parties and national leaders. “They say all politics is local. It’s not.”
However, Davis noted that changes in jobs or the war could alter his opinion.
The Cook Political Report shows Republicans with only a few seats at risk, while the Democrats’ list of vulnerable seats grows weekly. This week has Democrats with 53 seats listed as ‘Lean or Toss Up’ and Republicans have 6 ‘Lean or Toss Up’ seats. A year ago, the Report showed Democrats with 23 seats listed as ‘Lean or Toss Up’ while Republicans still had 6 seats.
— DRJ
Sabato’s Crystal Ball says +27 seats in the House, +7 seats in the Senate, +6 Governors for Republicans in November. It will take 40 seats in the House and 10 seats in the Senate for Republicans to become a majority. Just looking at the math, it would seem chances are higher to retake the House than the Senate. 38 Senate seats are up for election this year (some are special elections), with 19 Republican and 19 Democrat, so a 10-seat swing in the Senate will be much more difficult than a 40-seat swing in the House.
But Barry’s doing everything he can to help out.
John Hitchcock (09c20b) — 2/22/2010 @ 10:15 pmthat’s damn white of him John…….
%-)
redc1c4 (fb8750) — 2/22/2010 @ 10:20 pm“It’s still a long way until November but ex-NRCC chairman Tom Davis says there’s an even chance the GOP could retake the House:”
Looks like intrade offers him quite a deal.
imdw (c5488f) — 2/23/2010 @ 5:23 am[…] Patterico’s Pontifications, Handicapping the House: It’s still a long way until November but ex-NRCC chairman Tom Davis says there’s an even chance […]
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Handicapping the House | Liberal Whoppers (d16888) — 2/23/2010 @ 2:46 pm