Can the Democrats Push Through Health Care Using Reconciliation?
[Guest post by DRJ]
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced yesterday that Democrats will pass health care legislation by reconciliation in the next 60 days:
“I’ve had many conversations this week with the president, his chief of staff, and Speaker Pelosi,” Reid said during an appearance Friday evening on “Face to Face with Jon Ralston” in Nevada. “And we’re really trying to move forward on this.”
The majority leader said that while Democrats have a number of options, they would likely use the budget reconciliation process to pass a series of fixes to the first healthcare bill passed by the Senate in November. These changes are needed to secure votes for passage of that original Senate bill in the House.
“We’ll do a relatively small bill to take care of what we’ve already done,” Reid said, affirming that Democrats would use the reconciliation process. “We’re going to have that done in the next 60 days.”
Today Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says Reid’s plan may succeed:
“There’ll be a lot of Democrats who will vote against it,” McConnell said during an appearance on “Fox News Sunday” about the controversial budget reconciliation process. “Whether there will be 11 Democrats who will vote against it is not clear.”
At issue is the the process Senate Democratic leaders have indicated they will use to finish healthcare reform legislation. That process, called budget reconciliation, would allow senators to pass final changes to the original health bill they’d passed in December using only a simple majority of votes, instead of the 60 normally needed to end a filibuster.”
McConnell also said he would attend the President’s health care summit Thursday, but he “castigated the White House and congressional Democrats for appearing to go ahead with crafting their own bill ahead of the summit, giving the appearance that any real, bipartisan input may be foreclosed at the meeting.”
— DRJ
True Democracy in action!
Dmac (799abd) — 2/21/2010 @ 2:55 pm“True Democracy in action!”
I guess one option Reid doesn’t have is a simple up or down vote on the bill.
imdw (c8163e) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:20 pm“True Democracy in action!”
Given the historic majorities held by the Democrats in both houses of Congress, and having won the White House by a decisive margin, and representing more Americans per representative than the average Republican congressperson, then yes, this is, in fact, an example of democracy in action.
Now, if the Democrats use one sneaky but legal trick (reconciliation) that’s available to both parties to overcome a sneaky but legal trick (the filibuster) that’s available to both parties to pass legislation, then I can’t really fault them.
Elections have consequences, after all. If Republicans want to block the bill legitimately, I highly recommend you win the 2006 and 2008 elections.
Smily (dc088c) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:36 pmThey may very well do so. However if there is a Republican take over of Congress in November will they use the same tactic to undo it as well as other left-liberal programs? The democrats should be very wary of unleashing forces that could come back to bite them very hard in the future.
cubanbob (409ac2) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:38 pm“However if there is a Republican take over of Congress in November will they use the same tactic to undo it as well as other left-liberal programs?”
The democrats are trying to make it so that the GOP campaigns on undoing liberal programs like social security and medicare.
imdw (8f8ead) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:43 pmthehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/82505-mcconnell-not-clear-if-gop-can-block-majority-vote-tactic-on-healthcare
“It’s “not clear” whether enough Democrats will defect on a majority-vote procedure on health legislation to stop it, the Senate’s top Republican said Sunday.”
Majority rule might come to the US.
Wow. How evil. How fascist. It must be stopped!
And how did the Repub’kins pass Bush’s tax cuts?
Reconciliation.
And just to add: How many recess appointments by GWB?
171
Republicans have balls but no brains and democrats have brains but no balls. If the democrats are changing I’ll be grateful but my god are you people stupid.
“Andrew Breitbart defends Jared Taylor.”
Seltzer (cd2e04) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:46 pmCase closed.
^worst case of projection yet – but do come back when you decide to stop Drive – By Trolling. OK, sweetheart?
Dmac (799abd) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:56 pmMeanwhile, Frowny once again displays his firm grasp of the obvious.
Dmac (799abd) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:57 pm“Frowny”
I’m confused. Is this sort of thing supposed to make me angry? Sad? Confound me? I can’t really figure it out. Please explain to me what effect you’d like this to have on me.
Smily (dc088c) — 2/21/2010 @ 3:59 pmcubanbob:
Good question, but can the GOP undo this? I thought there is a provision that might make this legislation harder to undo. If so, will that provision survive as Democrats push this legislation through?
DRJ (6a8003) — 2/21/2010 @ 4:17 pmMcConnell might as well sign the bill his own pansy self I think. He’s a deeply useless and stupid person I think.
happyfeet (713679) — 2/21/2010 @ 4:19 pmThe Dems do not care one iota about what the American people want, that has been apparent from the outset. The above trolls simply reinforce what we already know. Seltzer will be gone as quickly as it blew in. Smelly is simply the newest ncarnation of a completely unoriginal partisan hack. Dimwit is dimwit. Passing policy via reconciliation, especially something of this magnitude, is not how it was designed. We are a republic, not a democracy or majority rules.
JD (e59ffa) — 2/21/2010 @ 4:37 pmWhat the Democrats, and everyone else, is missing is that the House may end up being the ultimate stumbling block. Remember it passed by only 5 votes (220-215).
Now keep in mind that Pelosi has already lost 2 votes (Wexler due to retirement, Murtha due to rigormortis) and in all probability a third (No way Cao votes for it again.) That leaves her only 2 votes, which means Stupak, or any other squeamish blue dogs, could change their vote and kill this thing.
Something to watch…
SaveFarris (5b611b) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:08 pmGiven the historic majorities held by the Democrats in both houses of Congress, and having won the White House by a decisive margin, and representing more Americans per representative than the average Republican congressperson, then yes, this is, in fact, an example of democracy in action.
You’re not representing “most Americans” with this bill, which is why you need to play games to try to pass it, and why your “historic majorities” are evaporating before your eyes.
I, for one, hope the Dems do ram this through. I’d like to see Republican majorities in House and Senate next year.
Subotai (4c4fbb) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:37 pmWhat the Democrats, and everyone else, is missing is that the House may end up being the ultimate stumbling block.
SaveFarris: Not everyone. A few pundits have noted that the house will be a tougher slog than the Senate this time. But I also think the house is headed by the tougher, more committed leader. It will be interesting to see if Pelosi can pull the caucus together again with the challenges that you correctly note. I think she can, but I’m far from sure.
The bigger picture is that Dems have nothing to lose from reconciliation. The GOP may have been too successful in framing the Democrats as passing a bill that hasn’t actually passed. Now, they might as well at least pass the bill since they’re going to take the fallout anyway, what fallout there will be. I think the fact that the bill could be overturned could be turned into a selling point, actually. (Though it’s never going to be overturned. The GOP will not take the Senate and probably not the House, either. Even if they did, Obama’s veto would stave off changes until the parties’ fortunes switch again, as they inevitably will.)
I also think the health care summit is meant simply to expose the Republicans as being unreasonable to further justify reconciliation. I’m still looking forward to it, though. I think it’s going to be a potential circus, and I believe Obama is going to scat and bebop all over the Repubs, just like he did when they last got together. Maybe Rep. Virginia Foxx can get another autograph.
Myron (998393) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:48 pmI, for one, hope the Dems do ram this through. I’d like to see Republican majorities in House and Senate next year.
If the first part happens, the second part won’t matter. Only one party fully understands this. Can you guess which one?
Myron (998393) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:50 pmMcConnell might as well sign the bill his own pansy self I think. He’s a deeply useless and stupid person I think.
Happy: I’ll never grasp the anti-McConnell attitude among some on the right. The guy keep his caucus together, including the squishy moderates; fends off a 60-vote supermajority; and helps put the Dems in desperation mode, having accomplished none of the items on their ’08 platform and he’s “useless”? The dude is 18 votes down and for part of the year was 20 votes down. He can’t just pass his own legislation. There’s a reason it’s called a “minority.”
Myron (998393) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:54 pmMcConnell might as well sign the bill his own pansy self I think. He’s a deeply useless and stupid person I think.
Happy: I’ll never grasp the anti-McConnell attitude among some on the right. The guy keeps his caucus together, including the squishy moderates; fends off a 60-vote supermajority; and helps put the Dems in desperation mode, having accomplished none of the items on their ’08 platform and he’s “useless”? The dude is 18 votes down and for part of the year was 20 votes down. He can’t just pass his own legislation. There’s a reason it’s called a “minority.”
Myron (998393) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:55 pmSorry for the double-post.
Myron (998393) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:55 pmI understand how hard it will be to overturn, Myron, although a saving grace for the GOP is that the costs start now but the benefits don’t start for years — something that will make it hard for Democrats to sustain public support for any health care legislation. I also think it will be even harder for Democrats to maintain control of both the House and the Senate.
DRJ (6a8003) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:57 pmThat was as predictable as the sun rising.
JD (e0a05e) — 2/21/2010 @ 5:59 pm“… the costs start now but the benefits don’t start for years — something that will make it hard for Democrats to sustain public support for any health care legislation. I also think it will be even harder for Democrats to maintain control of both the House and the Senate”.
With a clear majority in both houses of Congress, the only thing the Dims have to fear is fear itself… and the November elections. Odds are against this passing, even with reconciliation.
GeneralMalaise (0428a9) — 2/21/2010 @ 6:26 pm“the benefits don’t start for years”
There are benefits that start immediately. Don’t you remember Thune and Franken arguing over this?
imdw (8f8ead) — 2/21/2010 @ 6:41 pmThe prospect of government health insurance is exciting to Myron because he can’t afford any himself, and so he wants to sponge off other people. He’s proud of being a parasite.
But no bill is going to pass, and I don’t care if Obama puts on a performance worthy of Sammy Davis, Jr. at the summit. There would be no need for a summit if the Democrats had the votes, and they still don’t.
Official Internet Data Office (99772e) — 2/21/2010 @ 6:53 pmimdw,
In January 2010, President Obama said benefits will be implemented over the next 5 years, but only these provisions would be implemented initially:
Frankly, I’m not sure the second provision will make it into the final version but I admit these would be welcome changes for people who need them. However, I don’t think these provisions will help as many people as will feel the financial impact of health care legislation. The remaining benefits won’t be implemented “for several years” or until late 2014. That’s a long time to expect people to pay for health care they won’t be able to use.
DRJ (6a8003) — 2/21/2010 @ 6:57 pmThe bigger picture is that Dems have nothing to lose from reconciliation.
Actually, reconciliation has only been used for budget matters in modern times. Bush’s tax cuts were budget matters. A huge policy change like health care has never been enacted in this fashion. What the Democrats have to lose from this is their next ten elections. It is inconceivable to me that they do not see how this is a fatal move. They have ignored the jobs issue all year and what they have done, like talk about tax increases and cap and trade, make it worse.
The tax increases and the regulation changes with insurance companies will cause a premium spike and withdrawal from the market of many companies. The only way that “shall issue” rules will work is with a strong mandate but they have larded up the mandate with all sorts of killer provisions. Young people will buy cheap catastrophic coverage but that is not part of the Democrats’ plan because they need the premiums high enough to pay for the uninsured they plan to cover. That is a fatal flaw.
I am just getting out of the way. It is like looking at a train wreck that is about to happen. It will be awful but it’s hard to look away.
Mike K (2cf494) — 2/21/2010 @ 7:15 pmI Ditto the concerns about the use of the reconciliation processs being used for a non-budgetary matter expressed by Mike K, and think this could be a real well-poisoner.
Also, I find it interesting that McConnell said that “Whether there will be 11 Democrats who will vote against it is not clear”.
AD - RtR/OS! (b35340) — 2/21/2010 @ 7:41 pmThat seems to say that there is one GOP vote in favor:
48D + 1R = defeat; 49D + 1R = a tie-break by Sloe-Joe and a win for Health-Care Reform.
It’s simply irrelevant that the use of reconciliation for this purpose is unprecedented. The legislation itself is unprecedented. The idea that the Democrats “would never do that!” simply won’t wash. They’ve already shown that they’re willing to pull out all the stops for this legislation.
Harry Reid knows that this is his last term in the Senate, so he (along with any other Democratic member of the first branch of government who expects to finish his/her career during this Senate or House term) has a very big incentive to make sure that this law passes, one way or another. Who doesn’t want a swan song, especially on such a big issue as this?
I’m going to make what I consider an easy, albeit painful, prediction: the Dems will succeed. This monstrosity will become law.
I can’t understand why anyone on the right is optimistic that reconciliation won’t do the trick for the Dems. But boy do I hope they’re right.
Alan (07ccb5) — 2/21/2010 @ 7:59 pmIt seems like a serious communication blunder that Reid made the announcement regarding the use of reconciliation to pass health reform just days before what is supposed to be a bipartisan discussion on the topic. Were a real discussion even possible, this sort of announcement certainly damages the chances of a productive session. If Obama is trying to use his preferred form of compromise politics, he will have to go all out to make the Republicans feel that any effort on their part is worth it.
Wellescent Health Blog (aa4c0a) — 2/21/2010 @ 8:03 pmDRJ – According to the NY Times, as part of Obama’s plan which people will see for the first time tomorrow (What Leadership!), he will propose having federal regulators sign off, superior to state regulators, and price increases by health insurers.
Democrats keep assuring us that they are not proposing a takeover of the health insurance industry. Superseding state regulators on price regulation or implementing it where there is none seems like a pretty good step in that direction.
Also, why is Obama worried about insurance price increases if he is so sure the effect of the Democratic bills will be to lower the cost of insurance? That part does not make sense – perhaps he’s finally listening to the CBO who projected that the bills would increase insurance prices. Alternatively, he might just be worried about what happens between now and the delayed implementation of his absolutely gotta have it now plan in 2014.
daleyrocks (718861) — 2/21/2010 @ 8:17 pmHere is Major’s latest Tweet:
MajoratWH WH to post health care bill on website @ 10 am tmrw. Combo of H & S bills. Opener 4 Thurs talks. Some GOP reforms incl.
The WH knows that the right and left both think these bills stink on ice. The left can make history, alright. I’m with Mike K. Pass this landfill worthy bill, and the left can brag to their children that they assured no Democratic wins for a generation.
sybilll (b9c77a) — 2/21/2010 @ 8:22 pmdaleyrocks,
Good find but this just gets more and more depressing.
DRJ (6a8003) — 2/21/2010 @ 9:51 pmDRJ – Have a cupcake or something. Me, I’m diving into some chocolate ice cream.
daleyrocks (718861) — 2/21/2010 @ 10:41 pm> by reconciliation in the next 60 days
Didn’t they say pretty much the same thing, without the “by reconciliation”, last August or September about the original legislation?
Let’s wish them all the same degree of success and effectiveness they got following that claim.
IgotBupkis (79d71d) — 2/22/2010 @ 1:25 am“Actually, reconciliation has only been used for budget matters in modern times. Bush’s tax cuts were budget matters. A huge policy change like health care has never been enacted in this fashion. What the Democrats have to lose from this is their next ten elections. It is inconceivable to me that they do not see how this is a fatal move. They have ignored the jobs issue all year and what they have done, like talk about tax increases and cap and trade, make it worse.”
They’ll enact it at worse by majority rule, and even then, people will judge the result, not the process. Few even know what it takes to overcome a filibuster. A campaign against “reconciliation” will sound as successful as one for a “lockbox.”
Now what is more interesting is whether the democrats will run on their tax cuts.
imdw (de7003) — 2/22/2010 @ 5:02 amEVERYONE:
Step 1 in the reconciliation gambit is the Democrats have to pass the Senate bill. Until they do there is no bill to “fix” through reconcilliation. The Senate can puff out its chest all they want about how they’re gonna fix their own bill, but until the House votes for it its all kabuki theater.
And how exactly is the House going to pass this? 1 yes vote has retired, one has died, and one is a Republican (Cao) who will not vote for the Senate bill without the House anti-abortion funding provision(and cant be coerced to by Pelosi, since he’s a Rep).
That means that, for the House to pass this, they canot afford one single Democrat defection. If Pelosi was so sure he had that in the bag, why isn’t SHE bragging about being able to pass the Senate bill>
Sean P (334463) — 2/22/2010 @ 5:42 amPelosi allowed some Democrats to vote “no” to save their re-election chances before. She can’t do that now. The alleged pro-life Democrat caucus will now have to decide what to do. If they vote “yes,” their careers are over. The only reason a Democrat would be pro-life is electoral. All the conscience driven Democrats died off long ago.
Mike K (2cf494) — 2/22/2010 @ 5:59 amSean: I hope you’re right, I sincerely do. Because if this does go in reconciliation, I tend to agree with daleyrock’s comment that this is a real well-poisoner, and we’ll see the process similarly abused for wider and wider purposes in the future. Having it retracted by a later congress is equally scary…I don’t want each new legislature to spend half its time undoing the things it hated in the prior (just like Bambi’s “review” of all GWB’s executive decisions, which was performed with so much ado but in the end, ironically, most of the biggest flame-baiting subjects saw not a whit of change, fortunately).
Best case I see (unfortunately) is that it passes and the immediate constitutionality lawsuits which will be filed will eventually bag it by the Supreme Court finding it unconstitutional…but only after a couple years of balooning budgets and negative effects on both providers and insurers going out of business or because the immediate ‘reforms’ are costing them too much money, and of course the left crying that it was the Ebil Conservative Court System that prevented the social fixes from saving the universe, not that the concept was flawed from the start.
Of course, from what I understand something like 30 state legislatures are trying to pass laws claiming the state rights in this area; one hopes they step up the pace a bit and beat this one out as well. That would be a “better” outcome for the country: force it to rethink what is and isn’t the federal government’s purview once and for all.
As for the whole filibuster/cloture process leading up to this attempt, I do think it’s tending to be abused with the ‘gentleman’s filibuster’, as much as I’m in favor of the way they almost managed to stop this behemoth in the Senate. They should go back to forcing the actual performance, not just using cloture as a delaying tactic with zero effort expended. But by no means do I support removing or revising the filibuster’s existence…that’s proven to be an absolute keystone of Madison’s architecture, IMO.
rtrski (192cf0) — 2/22/2010 @ 6:14 amSorry, the well-poisoner line was AD’s, not daleyrocks. I think I also went off my sentence structure somewhere in the babble above, but I’m not going to attempt fixing it until I have more coffee. No doubt I’ll have a few knives in my argument by then. 🙂
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