Patterico's Pontifications

1/16/2010

Newest Brown/Coakley Polls: Still Good for Brown

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 10:15 am



An ARG poll has Scott Brown up by 3 points.

Yesterday, Instapundit noted that Coakley was still favored on Intrade.

Not any more. It’s now a dead heat.

Instapundit’s counsel nevertheless remains valid: “Nice polls kid — don’t get cocky.”

UPDATE: Brown is now solidly ahead on Intrade. Commenter Jan saw him up 55-45. I just saw him up 54 to 48.5.

26 Responses to “Newest Brown/Coakley Polls: Still Good for Brown”

  1. Are there enough New Black Panthers in MA to “legally” impact the vote like they “legally” impacted the vote in Philly?

    John Hitchcock (3fd153)

  2. I have the sense that with the various missteps — culminating in the Schilling fiasco — that the Irish Democrat machine isn’t going to go out on a limb for Martha Coakley the way they might have for a Kennedy or Kerry. Hopefully they will limit their activities to just casting their pro forma vote for her, but they won’t make a great effort to get out the vote or stuff the ballot box.

    JVW (48cbba)

  3. I’ll be in my bunker until the results are announced.

    Old Coot (d2bd0f)

  4. Vigilance.

    Not to sound Eeoyrish, but remember how we came to have a Senator Franken?

    The ONLY poll that counts in on Tuesday, and if there’s a way to cheat, Coakley will find it.

    It’s the Kennedy way.

    Dr. K (adb7ba)

  5. i don’t see Brown getting cocky….. that was Coakley’s thing.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)

  6. Me too, Old Coot. It’s getting dangerous out there: MM is warning about SEIU’s Purple Army heading to MA, sources at the Clinton rally report: Some much better dressed men from the Coakley Campaign who were apparently talking to Union guys from out of state. The gist was that the “Cavalry was coming” and they talked with the quiet confidence of gamblers who know which boxer is going to take a dive. And when Ed Schultz (yes, I know…)goes on record emphatically endorsing cheating in any way, to keep “the dirty bastard” out, you know it’s moved to a whole new level.

    Dana (f64b7d)

  7. Coakley is getting desperate with the new ads.

    Scott Brown considering a same sex marriage ?

    Mike K (2cf494)

  8. I have come across a wire tap recording from the DNC meeting on Coakley last night.

    Jack Woltz: You don’t understand. Johnny Fontane never gets that movie. That part is perfect for him. It’ll make him a big star. I’m gonna run him out of the movies. And let me tell you why. Johnny Fontane ruined one of Woltz International’s most valuable proteges. For three years we had her under contract, singing lessons, dancing lessons, acting lessons. I spent hundreds of thousands of dollars. I was gonna make her a big star. And let me be even more frank, just to show you that I’m not a hard-hearted man, that it’s not all dollars and cents. She was beautiful, she was innocent, she was the greatest piece of ass I’ve ever had, and I’ve had it all over the world. And then Johnny Fontane comes along with his olive oil voice and guinea charm and she runs off. She threw it all away just to make me look ridiculous. And a man in my position can’t afford to be made to look ridiculous. Now you get the hell out of here. And you tell that gumba that if he wants to try any rough stuff that I ain’t no band leader. Yeah, I heard that story.

    This is really getting heavy. I hope Scott Brown doesn’t have any horses he’s particularly fond of.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  9. I think most Democratic politicians in Massachusetts (I don’t even live there but I know how to spell it) have a disincentive to do much more than say the right words on Coakley’s behalf.

    Look at it this way: If you are an aspiring U.S. Senator (or support an aspiring U.S. Senator), which is better? Not doing much, and knowing that Senator Scott Brown will be a major national target in 2012, when Massachusetts will likely be a Dark Blue state in the Presidential race? Or helping Coakley win, and knowing that Senator Coakley will be unbeatable in 2012 and that Senator Kerry is showing no signs of retiring, either?

    Dave N. (42d6e0)

  10. Brown is now up 55-45 on Intrade.

    Jan (5cfe5a)

  11. Part of me is perfectly content with Brown losing this election. Let me explain why.

    He’s already thrown a good scare into the Democrats. If he wins, then they can blame this loser of a healthcare bill, which they all know is a loser, on Republican obstructionists.

    If Brown loses, they don’t have that excuse. Plus they now know that every seat, no matter how safe they once thought it was, is a toss up.

    I see it as win-win.

    Look, I want Brown to win outright. I can imagine no clearer repudiation of Obama’s agenda than that. But I’m not of one mind on the subject. I also think that the fact the Dems have to now fight over a seat in in MassachusettES is a pretty clear repudiation of their agenda.

    Part of me is thinking, if the Dems have to own the healthcare debacle outright, while simultaneously scrapping for Ted friggin’ Kennedy’s seat (to use David Gergen’s terminology) in a hotly contested election, just as good.

    I may be wrong. I look forward to more sophisticated commenatotors telling me why.

    Steve (8a779b)

  12. Look, I want Brown to win outright.

    We don’t believe you. You’re a “concern troll.” You’re arguing that a Brown loss is as good as a Brown win. That’s nonsense. You want to demoralize conservatives and would like to suppress their turnout in Massachusetts.

    I may be wrong. I look forward to more sophisticated commenatotors telling me why

    One reason is that you spell words as well as the Coakley campaign staff does. The other reason is that you’re something that the Obama administration will never be: transparent. Now, scurry back to Kos!

    Official Internet Data Office (c93f96)

  13. Wasn’t Doug Hoffman up by double digits in some polls in New York (or New Jersey)? John Mccain was held lead in some internal polls in Ohio right before election night.

    Coakley will probably win narrolwy. It’s dang hard to beat establishment politics.

    Still, it’s good to see the tide turning.

    lee (cae7a3)

  14. Senator Kerry is showing no signs of retiring, either.

    John Kerry will “retire” from the Senate in the same way that Ted Kennedy did. You are right that any Mass Dem with aspirations has to be frustrated at the Bay State’s Congressional delegation having so many lifers.

    JVW (48cbba)

  15. Also, Mark Steyn has his usual witty analysis of what is going on here:

    Subscribing to the Boston Globe, the unreadable and increasingly unread Massachusetts snooze-sheet, has much the same effect. As the house organ of a decrepit one-party state, the Globe endorsed Martha Coakley with nary a thought — using its Sober Thoughtful Massachusetts Election Editorial template (“[INSERT NAME OF CAREERIST HACK HERE] For Governor/Senator/Mayor/Whatever”) — and dutifully obscured what happened when one of the candidate’s minders shoved to the sidewalk a reporter who had the lèse majesté to ask an unhelpful question. If you’re one of the dwindling band of Bay Staters who rely on the Globe for your news, you would never have known that a Massachusetts pseudo-“election” had bizarrely morphed into a real one — you know, with two candidates, just like they have in Bulgaria and places. On Friday, the paper finally acknowledged that something goofy was happening: As the revealing headline put it, “Race Is In A Spinout.” As in “spinning out of control”? You mean, out of the control of the party and its dopey media cheerleaders? What they really mean is that the Democrats’ coronation procession is in a spinout.

    JVW (48cbba)

  16. And here’s another version of the finale of the film, Der Untergang, starring Bruno Ganz. It’s called Coakley’s Downfall. [video]

    [Caution: Strong Language Content Warning for some of the English subtitles.]

    Official Internet Data Office (c93f96)

  17. Coakley may be having second thoughts about depending on SEIU thugs for voter turnout.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  18. Comment by Mike K — 1/16/2010 @ 3:42 pm

    If she is, it would seem to be the first time she’s thought at all.

    AD - RtR/OS! (98852f)

  19. Is it just me or does the image of SEIU thugs and Black Panther pseudo head-knockers outside polling places for the State’s Attorney General seem incongruous?

    These people are not only out of touch but dangerously close to a confrontation with those better trained to deal with their anarchist agenda – “persuasion of power” which they do not have a monopoly on.

    vet66 (9d1bb3)

  20. Obama is heading north to tie in with Martin Luther King day and fire up the black base in Boston. Also unions and community activists will be told to get off their asses and cheat, steal, engage in fraud to seal the election for Coakley.

    Brown will have to have at least a 3% pt lead to defeat the fraud that Obama is orchestrating.

    richardb (c47755)

  21. OIDO: Capital “S” Steve is not a “concern troll” in the least. Capital “S” Steve has a point. But I disagree with his point. Yes, in the short run, an ObamaCare passage is a huge win for Republicans.

    But, thinking long-term, no government increase is ever rescinded. And that’s because Republicans, and more importantly, Conservative Republicans can never gain a super-majority. Any attempt to rescind a governmental power-grab that SCOTUS dishonestly permits will be met with a leftist filibuster, guaranteed. And I guarantee with the MSM fully in the lib camp and with the majority of casual voters being “politics is boring”, there will never be a time where Conservatives have enough Senate seats, including their Libertarian allies, to defeat a filibuster.

    If Brown loses, the Republicans still win due to the closeness of the race. Republicans still win with ObamaCare being wholly Democrat-owned. But it is a Pyrrhic victory. Short-term: Democrats are swept out of Congress. Long-term: The power-grab is complete.

    John Hitchcock (3fd153)

  22. no doubt Brown has some major MOJO goin his way,i think hes gonna win. check out this youtube vid
    Massachusetts Miracle
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7nEoW-P81-0&feature=player_embedded

    james conrad (633fbc)

  23. Yeah, not to sound Eeoyrish, but I was listening to Rush on Friday and he got me thinking: what’s the surprise going to be?

    Fritz (d696d9)

  24. If the tables were turned and it was a conservative Coakely running against a liberal Brown — and the Republican establishment of a rightwing US state had done super manipulative, super cynical things to determine how a sitting senator upon his (or her) death could or could not be replaced, I’d be so disgusted with the status quo that I’d be sympathizing for the left, for the Democrats—in such an alternative universe.

    Then, if the hypothetical conservative/Republican running for the Senate had a notorious history as attorney general of convicting innocent people, and continuing to deny the idiocy of such outrageous ineptitude years after the fact, I’d say that candidate not only had no business being on the ballot but that he was a threat to the mental health of society.

    So if I despised the US and states like Massachusetts in particular, I’d be rooting for irresponsible dunderheads like Coakley to be in charge of most things, the same way I’d be secretly high fiving and laughing when an NFL, NBA or MLB team that I hated — and that was playing against my home team — were suddenly populated by a bunch of incompetent coaches and athletes.

    Mark (411533)

  25. This is more of a genius effort, here, how did we ever miss her statesmanship

    http://www.postonpolitics.com/2010/01/mass-dem-senate-candidate-coakley-figured-in-palm-beach-kidnap-case/

    ian cormac (dfb136)

  26. the surprise is that there will be no surprise….

    except at the outcome of the vote, as the usual suspects will be astounded that the unwashed hordes didn’t listen to their betters.

    redc1c4 (fb8750)


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