The Biggest Loser (Updated)
[Guest post by DRJ]
ABC’s Jake Tapper reveals the White House unintentionally hit on the perfect metaphor for tonight’s election results:
“It’s unclear which White House staffer thought it would be a good idea to have an NBC show called “The Biggest Loser” visit the White House in an episode that aired on what was shaping up to be a tough election night for President Obama and the Democratic party, but the contestants stopped by 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Tuesday night as election returns came in.”
The show is about people trying to lose weight but, at least for tonight, the White House may be the biggest loser.
— DRJ
UPDATE: Absent a Truman-type miracle for Doug Hoffman, it appears the GOP won the Governors’ races in New Jersey and Virginia (and may have swept the top 3 races in Virginia), but Hoffman lost in NY’s 23rd Congressional race.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:36 pmTo be fair, Creigh Deeds is the biggest loser, even though expectedly so.
Karl (6aa6ff) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:42 pmI guess we all know who the biggest winner is! I hope that’s part of Corzine’s concession speech.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:44 pmAccording to MSNBC, conservatives and Palin are the biggest losers. At least that is what it sounded like what they were trying to say. All of the spittle flying made it hard to understand.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:46 pmApparently Deeds is the biggest percentage loser but he only lost 1 statewide race. The White House lost 2 states that Obama won by large percentages just one year ago: Virginia 53-47 and New Jersey 57-42.
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:51 pmOn second thought, the real biggest loser may be Scozzafava.
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:54 pmI wonder how that would have played out if she had stayed in the race?
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:55 pmI clicked over to MSNBC, just to see some anger, and all I see are baseball highlights from decades ago.
Is this some kind of joke? this is a huge news night, and a lot of people are watching cable news who ordinarily don’t. Why in the hell would a producer not cover the election? CNN must be grateful. Each one of these cycles = thousands of new viewers, and none of them are going to have a good impression of MSNBC.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:56 pmObama’s coattails are short. He won’t be on the ballot in 2010. The Obama approved media will hide it, but is Obama’s voting block going to turn out in 2010? Blacks especially. What about in 2012?
Exciting times for junkies of this stuff.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 7:58 pmI have no idea, JD. Reports say NY 23 voters are conservative but they seem like Rockefeller Republicans to me.
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:03 pmI’ve updated the post with what I believe are the final results in tonight’s 3 most-watched elections.
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:13 pmUh, oh. Christie came to the podium amongst the strains of Springsteen’s “Born to Run.”
The Boss is going to be mad!
Ag80 (3d1543) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:17 pmCheck out what’s happening in the Virginia House of Delegates. Apparently the Republicans are having a big night there, too, adding at least 3 and possibly more to their current 55-45 advantage.
Kevin Murphy (3c3db0) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:17 pmThis is the kind of change I can believe in!
Stan Switek (d9d8ce) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:19 pmAssuming that Hoffman loses, does this mean that Gingrich was right? Or just that Scozzafava is a scumbag (that being a given)?
Kevin Murphy (3c3db0) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:19 pmJust my opinion but … Gingrich would have been right if this election could have made a difference in who controls Congress. But Gingrich was wrong to let Party trump ideology when the race couldn’t change Democratic control of Congress.
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:23 pmThere is still hope for Hoffman. I admit, it’s a longshot, but it always has been. Amazing that a single Facebook post completely transformed this election.
Gingrich is a jackass, but he’s paid for it quite a bit. What a knike Dede stick in his back! What did she get for that? She could have been graceful about it, but really, it’s probably helped a lot that she endorsed the democrat. No moderate republicans gave her a sympathy protest vote. It was either Owens, who will lose this office in 2010 anyway, or Hoffman, who will have this office in 2010.
I think Gingrich is the biggest loser. He had a shot at some kind of power in a party trying to get to 1994… and now his name is mud.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:32 pmActually, I assume Owens got far more absentee votes than Hoffman (since Dede was credible when those votes were cast), and that those haven’t been counted. Am I wrong?
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:34 pmI don’t know but you may be right. There are apparently 10,000 paper ballots that haven’t been counted and they may be absentee ballots.
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:36 pmGawd, I just flipped to CNN long enough to hear that utter tool David Gergen intone that tonight’s results show the need for the GOP to appeal to moderates by not being committed conservatives. How did this jackass ever get a job in the Reagan Administration?
JVW (d32e06) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:37 pmThis just in! Maddow’s most important story is half of Maine doesn’t like same same-sex marriage, but half of it does!
It’s all a win-win, or lose-lose! As Maine goes, so goes the nation!
Wait, wait, Maddow just reported that Scasssomething got 5 percent of the vote! Even though she withdrew! It means something!
So, she hands it off to Lawrence O’Donnell! O’Donnell says the district will be cut up in the next census and handed off to the Democrats! It’s all good! The Democrats will win! Forever and ever! It’s all good!
Why do I feel like Kermit the Frog introducing the next act on the Muppet Show?!
A lefty won a lefty district!
Why am I watching MSNBC?! Why is there air?! Why is the sky blue?!
Ag80 (3d1543) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:37 pmThe wires are hot. According to Maddow, RINO Bloomberg almost didn’t win the NYC mayoral race! But he spent a lot of money!
Not nearly as much as Corzine! Who lost! But, it just goes to show that RINOs who spend a lot of money win! But Dems who spend a lot more lose!
It proves that the whole country is in for Obama! Except for those few who voted the other way!
So, Dems win!
Yeaaah!
Ag80 (3d1543) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:44 pmAg – You watched the comparatively sane 1/2 hour, apparently. Mathews with Kanter was jaw-dropping.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:49 pmI finally switched channels when she was knitting her eyebrows over Reid saying he’ll get health care passed next year.
I hereby nominate Harry Reid as an honorary Aggie. Just wait ’til next year.
Ag80 (3d1543) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:52 pmThat would make him an honorable Cub.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 8:57 pmThe Republicans had a good night, but there are warning signs in the results for both parties.
Much will be made of these races and that’s fine. But they mainly prove the old adage that all politics is local. Corzine’s popularity numbers in NJ were in the tank. The people were tired of him. They chose someone else.
In VA, all evidence is that Deeds ran a piss-poor campaign. McDonnell had a clearer message and really, just sounded like he would be better for the state. He won for the reasons a candidate should win. The National Review called him a “conservative pragmatist” who talked about issues like jobs, transportation and education. Bread-and-butter stuff. Real stuff, not ideological extremism. There’s more good news for the GOP b/c I think they have found at least one serious contender for 2012.
As for N.Y.-23, Owens appears headed for a victory, and I think it’s due, in part, to resentment to outside meddling. How many New Yorkers, upstate or elsewhere, are really going to be amenable to getting voting advice from a specimen like Sarah Palin?
In CA-10, often over-looked but a congressional seat just the same, the Democrat will win, as expected.
So, from a Democratic perspective, when we’re looking at issues such as health care, climate change, immigration reform and the like, it all adds up to two more house seats during the period where these items will come to the table. And NY-23 went from red to blue. So, Republicans, despite trends showing some independents wearying of the Dems, still have not figured out how to pick up congressional seats even, in the case of NY-23, a strong, red district. (They had a similar collapse in conservative NY-20.) They have yet to figure out how to win anywhere — and that’s the path to a majority. Trying to turn every candidate into Jim DeMint is not on that path.
Which brings us to the “civil war” strategy. It’s a loser. It’s a dud. But unfortunately for Republicans (and happily for me), it’ll be staying around b/c, whatever ultimately happens in NY-23, the right-wing is emboldened to go after moderates. This means moderate candidates will have to weather two big, ugly battles to get any seat — as we’ll see with Crist (FL) and perhaps Fiorina (CA).
I had written off the Crist seat from my side, until he fell into the right-wing’s cross-hairs. Now, anything’s possible.
Myron (6a93dd) — 11/3/2009 @ 9:18 pmMyron has his MSNBC talking points down pat. And then proves it with the rest of his Olbergasm/MadCow-esque analysis.
How did you like Sen Reid saying you ain’t getting your healthcare “reform” this year, Myron?
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 9:27 pmMyron, the Dems win in the CA and NY House races do not represent “two more seats” (emphasis added), they only represent holding current Democrat seats. If the party’s message tonight is “We didn’t get totally skunked” then it sure is a comedown from Obama-mania just one year ago, isn’t it?
Speaking of Dear Leader, Michelle Malkin tweeted a funny line. I can’t remember it verbatim, but the gist of it is thus: “Obama visited Virginia twice and New Jersey three times to stump for Democrat candidates. Too bad for Republicans that he never made it up to the NY-23 district.”
JVW (d32e06) — 11/3/2009 @ 9:32 pmMyron, I agree that Palin has a limited reach these days, but looking at the impact her tiny facebook comment had, and it’s clear she helped Hoffman quite a bit.
Before her comment, he was in single digits, just a few days later, and he’s squeaking to the finish line, probably a hair behind. Overwhelmingly better than the odds.
Call her a ‘specimen’ and make fun of her ‘meddling’, though. I think that a lot of democrats will try to attack her in ugly ways again, as though she’s supposed to be silent while everyone else can express their opinions. Good luck with that. The GOP won huge contests, and the democrats lost huge contests. That’s going to have a heavy impact on congress’s attitude towards Obama’s special voter repellent formula, I think.
Unless these blue dogs and freshman hope that the GOP in their district has these ridiculous problems that NY 23 had.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 9:40 pmHarry Reid says healthcare “reform” is not likely to go this year.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 9:45 pmProlly not feeling too comfortable with his own seat right about now …
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 9:52 pmJVW. You have wrong information. NY-23 was a vacant seat held by a series of Republicans going back many years. It’s a Dem pickup.
Myron (712b1e) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:03 pmHow did you like Sen Reid saying you ain’t getting your healthcare “reform” this year, Myron?
You’ve seen my posts many times here, JD, so I think you know I would not like that at all. In fact, I think such a move might sink reform and inspire the kind of intraparty spats plaguing the Repubs. The Democratic base would rebel.
Myron (712b1e) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:05 pmNice try at spin, Myron. The nominated “Republican” was forced out of the race by an independent candidate with no money, who ran a bootstrap campaign until two weeks before the end. Pretty darn impressive to come from virtually nowhere with grassroots support and nearly take the win.
Fact is, had Hoffman been the nominated candidate, with money and backing from the get go, he would have easily won.
Resentment over “outside meddling”—is that something you just pulled from your **s?
Oh, and nice try that you Democrats picked up two seats—-the California primary had a seat with an 18% Democrat registration edge.
Here are the real facts—Obama campaigned hard for Corzine, put his pollster in charge of the Corzine campaign, prominently backed Deeds, had the Democrat National Committees spend millions on the race—and lost both.
Your attempt at spin, in the face of facts, won’t be to reassuring to those Democrats who rode Obama’s coattails to wins in Republican districts last year—because unlike you, they can read the writing on the wall.
doug (49dd6f) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:07 pmOne last thing—so predictable that the “dogtrainer” leads with the Democrat spin on the elections—that is, that an independent narrowly failing to win a seat of the pants campaign shows failure of the Republican brand—and buries the true lead, that the President put prestige and money on the line in a Democrat state and got wiped out, and that a state that he also poured money into for the Gov race flipped back GOP in a huge way.
doug (49dd6f) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:11 pmThe Biggest Loser? Maybe in Maine?
As of an hour ago,
From the Washington Post
John Hitchcock (3fd153) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:11 pmOh, that’s about the Same-Sex Marriage law going down.
John Hitchcock (3fd153) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:12 pmMyron is trying to spin a liberal’s win in a liberal district as some sort of clarion call that all is well on the Obama frontier.
Why, exactly, was the race open? Hmm, could it be because of an Obama appointment?
Ag80 (3d1543) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:17 pmBy DAVID ESPO
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WASHINGTON (AP) — In a blow to the White House, the Senate’s top Democrat signaled Tuesday that Congress may fail to meet a year-end deadline for passing health care legislation, leaving the measure’s fate to the uncertainties of the 2010 election season.
Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., spoke as Democratic officials said it could be December before Senate debate begins in earnest on the issue atop President Barack Obama’s domestic agenda, months after senior lawmakers and the White House had hoped. The drive to pass legislation has been plagued for months by divisions within the party’s rank and file.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:17 pmDustin: Palin’s early support put Hoffman on other politicians’ radar and led to much of the attention and funding that he received. There’s no disputing that. And she stepped out before a lot of other politicos, who waited until Hoffman’s campaign had momentum before they hopped on board.
Myron (712b1e) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:18 pmYeah …. Sorry about that one …
WASHINGTON (AP) — In a blow to the White House, the Senate’s top Democrat signaled Tuesday that Congress may fail to meet a year-end deadline for passing health care legislation, leaving the measure’s fate to the uncertainties of the 2010 election season.
Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., spoke as Democratic officials said it could be December before Senate debate begins in earnest on the issue atop President Barack Obama’s domestic agenda, months after senior lawmakers and the White House had hoped. The drive to pass legislation has been plagued for months by divisions within the party’s rank and file.
That was before Dems got whipped in VA and NJ.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:19 pmPalin had no “early support”, Myron. Palin did not utter a word about this until there was less than a month prior to the election. Earlier than others, perhaps.
JD (6dce29) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:20 pmJVW. You have wrong information. NY-23 was a vacant seat held by a series of Republicans going back many years. It’s a Dem pickup.
I stand corrected; I thought this was Kristin Gillibrand’s old seat that she gave up to go to the Senate. The GOP had held this seat for the past eight terms, but it looks like the Dems had held it for the seven years prior to that, so I am not sure if it could be considered a Republican stronghold. From the Wikipedia page it would appear that this particular district gets it’s borders switched around in virtually every census, and if New York loses a Congressional seat after the next census this district may be the one to go.
JVW (d32e06) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:21 pmYou’re right, Myron. Palin did a lot in NY 23.
In my view, for the better, but that’s just an opinion.
You have to take risks. A lot of other politicians did not. Does Romney look better for staying out of it? I don’t think so. Maybe I’m wrong about it, but Palin kinda made herself more relevant on the national stage. If the left ignored her, I think the GOP bigwigs would love to also ignore her, but Palin somehow gets under skin.
Not necessarily a good way to win an election, though.
Owens is not a bad guy, though. NY is MUCH MUCH better off than if Scozzafava had won. Palin did them a favor.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:22 pmJVW, redistricting makes it hard to follow, but that seat has been a GOP seat for long than anyone has been alive.
I don’t know if that’s a good thing or not. Probably irrelevant tradition. the GOP deserved to lose this seat. not to send a message, but because they were incompetent. Dede’s buddy gave her a present that wasn’t his to give, and the voters tried to stop it. The democrat ran as a moderate, instead, and will surely do a better job in DC than dede would have, when she had a debt to repay.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:25 pmKristen was from NY-20, NE of Albany.
AD - RtR/OS! (e6a9d0) — 11/3/2009 @ 10:29 pmNY-23 is the north-country around Plattsburgh to the Canandian border.
Obama won NY23 with 52% of the vote. Is that how we’re defining strong Republican districts these days?
DRJ (dff2ca) — 11/3/2009 @ 11:57 pm[…] Spotted on Patterico. […]
Quote. Of. The. Day. « Something should go here, maybe later. (cb35d3) — 11/4/2009 @ 2:02 amYeah, well from a native NYer (born in the city, but raised away from it), the thing you have to remember is that outside of the major cities and university towns, the state is quite rural, and leans heavily Republican.
NY 23 has Clarkson, St. Lawrence, SUNY Oswego, SUNY Plattsburg as major colleges (and I might have missed a few). Mostly, it is trees and mountains.
But you all forget that NYS is famous for its unique form of governance – Three Men in a Room ™, where the Governor, State Senate Leader, and State Assembly Leader decide the budget and that is that.
What we need to do is to get Scozz out of the Assembly, or at least force her to run as a (D).
At least that would be honest.
Dr. K (adb7ba) — 11/4/2009 @ 2:51 amSeems to me that NY23 is the biggest loser.
sTevo (1b2d95) — 11/4/2009 @ 3:14 amhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NY-23
People keep saying this district was Republican for 100 years. Perhaps due to gerrymandering there’s some jackass way that’s true, but the evidence seems to show that this area is not even close to reliably republican, and this specific seat wasn’t republican in the early 1990s.
Just look at where the last Republican elected to NY 23 is now working… the Obama administration.
I’m very surprised by how wrong all the polls where. If this kinda of discrepancy had existed in reverse, I’m sure they would claim election fraud. Regardless, I hope Hoffman has the gall to run in the primary.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/4/2009 @ 3:16 amThe California seat was won, and not handily, by John Garamendi who is presently lt governor. He has been around forever and that seat leans strongly D. It would have been nice if it had gone to R but there are still enough Kool Aid sippers around that it will take another dose of disaster to teach them about Obama.
Mike K (2cf494) — 11/4/2009 @ 3:54 amMike, I wonder if it would really take much more to put California into play for the presidential election. Depends on who we nominate. It also really depends on money. After the GOP primary, a lot of republicans are going to be alienated. A lot of Republicans think their money was spent fighting against Hoffman or for Christie… it will be hard to bring them back to the checkbook.
But that’s only a small part of the problem, I guess. What’s Christie supposed to do, now that he’s in power? What would Mitt Romney do if he took over the White House today? We’re in an entitlement culture with ridiculous debts we can’t actually pay, and demands for tripling those debts. Is there a way out? California tried the GOP to some extent, and it’s only slowed the bleeding.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/4/2009 @ 4:24 amDustin,
Did you even bother to read the article you linked to?
Until 1983 the district was in the NYC area. Then they were renumbered and NY23 became Northern NY.
And even though Sam Stratton had a (D) after his name, he was probably one of the most conservative (D)s out there. He was a very strong supporter of the US military.
Dr. K (eca563) — 11/4/2009 @ 4:28 amMaybe the NRCC should go after Scozz to get the money back since she took it under false pretenses.
Dr. K (eca563) — 11/4/2009 @ 4:51 amWell, first no matter how you slice it, a great day for republicans. And of course the white house spin that it has nothing to do with obama is belied by the fact that many advertisements by corzine and deeds said more or less, vote for me to support obama. And even clearer is in VA, because it looks like a huge percentage of people just pulled the republican lever. I mean all of those republicans had numbers in the same range.
And yes, hoffman was not the fairy tale ending some of us were hoping for, where the scrappy outsider not annointed by the party ends up taking it. But you know, i will say two things. First, when i first heard hoffman, he had an off putting manner. maybe he grows on you, or maybe this is just about the issues, but he’s not a very appealing guy on first blush. i mean, if i lived in his district i would have voted for him, but i can see where that could be a turn off.
And apparently he doesn’t even live in the district.
so put that together with dede’s backstabbing, and he is placing an extremely respectable third. indeed, the 6% that went to dede might have been totally absentee ballots that might have gone to him otherwise.
and regardless, i believe the other thing that was killed last night was health care reform and cap and tax. and that is the important part.
A.W. (e7d72e) — 11/4/2009 @ 5:50 amRepublican party learned a valuable lesson in NY23 — pick f’ing Conservatives. While I appreciate the whole “all politics local” the fact is money is not.
A Republican Candidate in New York needs that $250 from the Oklahoma Minister that goes to the RNC …. and fact is PASSIONATE FUND RAISERS ARE CONSERVATIVE.
Cocktail Republicans need to go way of the dinosaur in terms of Party leadership. They inspire nothing with their “Compassionate Conservatism” and other childish nonsense which masks for Moderate Democrat.
Conservatives need to use Moderates to win seats not the other way around. Once these moderates caucus Republican then you can present Conservative Laws and Agendas.
That to me is Rahm’s lesson, Liberal Democrats used Moderates to win seats and get a majority.
HeavenSent (01a566) — 11/4/2009 @ 6:19 amSaw somewhere that Obama wasn’t much interested in the elections, was going to watch a basketball game.
Nero did something like that when Rome burned, didn’t he?
Larry Sheldon (86b2e1) — 11/4/2009 @ 6:47 am59th!
Steve B (5eacf6) — 11/4/2009 @ 7:06 amLarry
I believe he wasn’t watching, but i also believe that he knew percisely what was happening. But who wants to watch themselves get pwned for hours on end?
A.W. (e7d72e) — 11/4/2009 @ 7:12 amIn a blow to the White House, the Senate’s top Democrat signaled Tuesday that Congress may fail to meet a year-end deadline for passing health care legislation, leaving the measure’s fate to the uncertainties of the 2010 election season.
“…then Senator Reid immediately bent over and asked ‘sir, may I have another?’ “
Dmac (a964d5) — 11/4/2009 @ 7:53 amSince when does the term “moderate” refer to the likes of Dede Scoffaluzza? I know several democrats who are more conservative than she is. Our two party system encourages coalitions, but there is a limit somewhere.
BarSinister (7c96f0) — 11/4/2009 @ 10:03 amThe biggest losers last night were Obama’s starry eyed, true believing, potted plants, who today blindly squander what’s left of their compromised integrity attempting to pretend Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again.
ropelight (1a9cd1) — 11/4/2009 @ 10:16 amComment by BarSinister — 11/4/2009 @ 10:03 am
It could be argued that NY-23 was, in the end, a contest between a conservative and a moderate, and the moderate won –
AD - RtR/OS! (9e209a) — 11/4/2009 @ 11:00 amit is arguably true that both of these men espoused policies to the right of Dede.
In the end, we could just find that Owens (D) is just slightly to the right of the man he is replacing (McHugh-R) in the House.
If that is the case, it would seem that NY-23 has moved slightly:
From Center-Left to Center-Right with a slightly imperceptable degree of separation.
Dr K said “Did you even bother to read the article you linked to?”
No need to be a dick. I did read the article, which is kinda obvious since I summarized it accurately.
This seat was not republican in the 1990s. Period. Are you denying that somehow? The redistricting has occurred as you said (which I said first (did you bother to read my comment?), but the area is not reliably republican. I realize that the TV has to make this into something historic, and made some grandiose claim about how this was a GOP stronghold, but it wasn’t.
Democrats support the military in rural areas. You didn’t know that? Owens is currently in military reserves, even.
This district has an index of GOP +1. In other words, it’s split in the middle.
AD is right that a moderate won in a moderate district, but I disagree that this is an indication that the voters have moved at all. This election had too much static in every direction to know exactly where the voters are on conservatism. The Republicans claimed Republican Hoffman had no integrity and attacked him viciously, and that kind of attack does a lot of damage.
Dustin (bb61e3) — 11/4/2009 @ 1:38 pm[…] Pontifications: The Biggest Loser (Updated): ABC’s Jake Tapper reveals the White House unintentionally hit on the perfect metaphor for […]
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