Patterico's Pontifications

9/4/2009

Diagnosing Obama’s problems is not rocket science

Filed under: General — Karl @ 10:22 am



[Posted by Karl]

Charlie Cook writes that Pres. Obama and the Democrats are “bleeding independents,” with potential effects on the 2010 midterm elections:

Listening to two briefings — one by a Democratic pollster who had just conducted a survey for a group favoring health care reform, the other by a Republican pollster more skeptical of the reform plans — I felt as if I were hearing a pair of reports by the National Transportation Safety Board on the same plane crash. But in sorting through the problems facing President Obama and congressional Democrats, focusing too narrowly on their disastrous handling of health care would be a mistake.

***

…[L]ate last year many moderates and independents who were already frightened about the economy began to fret that Washington was taking irreversible actions that would drive mountainous deficits higher. They worried that government was taking on far more than it could competently handle and far more than the country could afford. Against this backdrop, Obama’s agenda fanned fears that government was expanding too far, too fast. Before long, his strategy of letting Congress take the lead in formulating legislative proposals and thus prodding lawmakers to take ownership in their outcome caused his poll numbers on “strength” and “leadership” to plummet.

This is not surprising. Only 50 days into his administration, Pres. Obama was facing — and rejecting — criticism that he was trying to do “too much, too soon.” At that time, I wrote:

That President Obama seems to be following the “too much, too soon” path of Carter and Clinton should not be a big surprise. Obama’s election continues a 16-year cycle favoring relatively inexperienced Democrats preaching the gospel of Hopenchange. Victory apparently breeds hubris in such presidents that causes them to ignore the lessons of history — or get just plain get them wrong.

Pres. Obama’s problems with Congress were also predictable. On this point, I’ll reprint at length from something I wrote on July 9, 2008:

* * *

As a political analyst, Dick Morris is a great pollster. However, it is worth considering his forecast of what an Obama administration would face from a Congress that will in all likelihood be more progressive, with more Democrats than it has now:

Faced with the same situation in 1993, as he took office as president, Bill Clinton found no alternative but to move dramatically to the left, shelving for the moment his promises of a middle-class tax cut and welfare reform. He had no choice. The Democratic majorities in both Houses served him with notice: Either you stay within the caucus and not cross the aisle in search of support for centrist policies, or we will do unto you what we did to Jimmy Carter when Tip O’Neill turned on him and made his life miserable. Clinton was forced to emphasize healthcare reform over welfare changes and to go with a liberal economic stimulus package capped by big tax increases. The liberal stain sank so deeply into the fabric of his presidency that it caused him to lose Congress in 1994, and almost to lose the 1996 election.

I am again reminded of the 16-year cycle of “change” elections the US has tended to have since WWII:

Once in office, JFK, Carter and Clinton all had difficulty moving their agendas through Democratic Congresses. And they were perceived as weak by our foreign adversaries, with serious consequences for US foreign policy that often outlasted their terms in office.

Morris here adds the interesting wrinkle that such presidents can find themselves hobbled by a Democratic Congress, regardless of whether they fight Congress (as Carter did) or become hostage to it (as Clinton did). An Obama administration would have to Hope that Congress would Change its expectations.

* * *

My Dad recently mentioned that it may seem smarmy when I quote or link myself as I have just done (and he’s probably right). However, the point of revisiting these points is not to claim that I am some sort of oracle. To the contrary, I revisit these points to demonstrate that what is happening now was eminently foreseeable by anyone. A little bit of political science and history — or a willingness to do an hour or so of work with a search engine — is enough to do the trick. Charlie Cook and the pollsters he consulted — people paid to do this sort of thing — could have seen this coming as easily as some pseudonymous blogger. Had he done so, Cook might have conceded that he is being a bit ungenerous to Pres. Obama, as history suggests he would have had problems with a Democratic Congress regardless of his level of engagement.

–Karl

35 Responses to “Diagnosing Obama’s problems is not rocket science”

  1. Dick Morris is a noted toe-sucker who appears on Fox News.

    David Ehrenstein (2550d9)

  2. But Karl, you are The Oracle.

    Alta Bob (3dd3fe)

  3. “I revisit these points to demonstrate that what is happening now was eminently foreseeable by anyone. ”

    Indeed. I was calling Obama another Jimmy Carter back in mid-2008.

    Travis Monitor (8d33ce)

  4. Alta Bob,

    Shhhh! I’m trying to stay undercover. ;-P

    Karl (28885b)

  5. I agree it’s not rocket science, but the pros still get it wrong. His dropping support is not due to Obama trying to do ‘too much too soon’, nor is it his outsourcing to Congress, fears about the deficit or government expanding too far too fast.

    The big drop in support is because he promised to make everything better and he hasn’t. Most people don’t know or care about the specifics of what he is doing, they just know that he hasn’t fixed the economy, made health care cheaper and so on.

    steve sturm (369bc6)

  6. Many people were in denial and now less people are in denial. This is not a trend that favors Barack Obama.

    happyfeet (71f55e)

  7. I have been going through the various comment threads here today, and the level of vitriol, anger, hate, and not-at-all thinly veiled racism is just breath taking.

    JD (25da56)

  8. Obama is just a symptom of the Federal Government’s growth and direction. Given how we, and I mean the voting public, continue to vote in the same people decade after decade; we should not be surprised at what the Fed has become. Yes, in some ways Congress is controling him – but he is of his own making. And the Federal Gov’t is of our making.

    Opinion polls aside – there’s nothing to stop Congress and Obama from doing anything they want to do. They have at least the rest of this year and all of next.

    Corwin (ea9428)

  9. JD is a racist.

    BT (78b929)

  10. Keep going through the posts JD. You might learn something. Go tell on us.

    Julie (63b287)

  11. Oh, I don’t know, Karl, I cite myself all the time because before the election I said that an Obama victory would have us looking back on Jimmy Carter with nostalgia and longing.

    N. O'Brain (5deb6d)

  12. Julie,

    I assure you that JD’s comment is undiluted sarcasm.

    Karl (28885b)

  13. steve sturm,

    I agree that a lot of it is that he hasn’t made the economy better (even though he has little power over it, even if he had better policies). I don’t think it’s that he hasn’t made healthcare cheaper as much as it is their general impression that government won’t make it cheaper.

    Karl (28885b)

  14. My friends all scoffed at my Jimmah comparisons back before the election – I’ve just started asking them “how do you like me now?” Needless to say, they’re not amused – so my smugness is still subdued.

    Dmac (a93b13)

  15. The mark of being a fine fellow and an all round good sport is listening to your father.

    OldGeezer (4e0dda)

  16. The big drop in support is because he promised to make everything better and he hasn’t. Most people don’t know or care about the specifics of what he is doing, they just know that he hasn’t fixed the economy, made health care cheaper and so on.

    Comment by steve sturm — 9/4/2009 @ 12:05 pm

    Well said Steve Sturm! Couldn’t have said it better. Obama is now paying the price for being such a wonderful campaigner. YES WE CAN! YES WE CAN!! YES WE CAN!!!!

    The Emperor (1b037c)

  17. oh. Barack Obama’s daddy didn’t want nuffin to do wif him.

    happyfeet (71f55e)

  18. You are The Oracle, Karl, although I will point out that sometimes JD’s sarcasm is diluted.

    DRJ (3f5471)

  19. Comment by DRJ — 9/4/2009 @ 1:18 pm

    Diluted? Now that’s real sarcasm right there…. 🙂

    The Emperor (1b037c)

  20. Even the left is becoming convinced Obama is no leader. Josh Marshall, citing the same Cook report Karl discusses, all but says Obama is an empty suit.

    MTF (6e6f07)

  21. Another good post. My generation, the Baby Boomers, have pissed away the America our parents gave us, our inheritance and that of our children.
    10 million or so Independents, knowing neither party was worth spit, failed to do a weekend’s study of the issues and background before voting in the least qualified, most extreme candidate in history.
    Done blame them for “wanting a change” just abject, self-absorbed laziness.

    gary gulrud (06aaa3)

  22. Another good post. My generation, the Baby Boomers, have pissed away the America our parents gave us, our inheritance and that of our children.
    10 million or so Independents, knowing neither party was worth spit, failed to do a weekend’s study of the issues and background before voting in the least qualified, most extreme candidate in history.
    Done blame them for “wanting a change” just abject, self-absorbed laziness.

    gary gulrud (06aaa3)

  23. Sometimes my message is a bit too subtle and nuanced for some people.

    Lovie is still a retarded marmoset. Careful folks. It might bite off your finger.

    JD (b292bd)

  24. I would definitely agree that the moderates/independents out there are, for the most part, gravely concerned. Particularly when it comes to spending, and pretty much everything Obama has proposed at this point will cost. A lot.

    And, as you mention in your article, he is likely to put in a similar situation as Carter or Clinton. The far-leftists are not going to want him to do anything beyond the agenda. Eventually, he’s going to run out of options. There’s an interesting summary video of the recent health care questions/concerns from various sources. It’s a short, well-made video. I recommend watching it if you have just a few minutes:

    http://www.newsy.com/videos/obama_s_new_health_care_strategy

    Kt D (c6f9e9)

  25. Isn’t it racist to call someone a monkey? Damn you racist JD! Your racism is officially out of the closet. Now run! Run and hide your tiny little as* in shame, JD. Finger-chewing Cannibal,you… 🙂

    The Emperor (1b037c)

  26. My apologies to retarded marmosets everywhere …

    JD (b292bd)

  27. I was born with ten fingers. Now they are nine. JD, where is my little finger?

    The Emperor whose finger is missing (1b037c)

  28. “Josh Marshall, citing the same Cook report Karl discusses, all but says Obama is an empty suit.”

    MTF – If Obama has lost mega sycophant Josh Marshall, he’s lost the country. According to one count, Obama has spoken publicly 111 times this year about health care and people still don’t think he’s credible, exercising leadership, or communicating a plan. For a president who is supposed to be a great communicator that is absolutely pathetic.

    daleyrocks (718861)

  29. Obama’s problem is one thing: The Republicans.

    The Emperor who feels marmosets need respect too. (0c8c2c)

  30. IMHO, Josh Marshall was trying to suggest that Obama’s cratering poll numbers are due to his not having rammed through more pieces of left-wing legislation. In Marshall-land, had Obama done so, he would have better numbers as a “strong leader.” It’s a theory that works only if you ignore all of the other polling data about the administration to date.

    Karl (28885b)

  31. these are retarded marmosets in the act of ignoring all of the other polling data about the administration to date

    happyfeet (6b707a)

  32. Karl,
    Can’t you say it’s not brain surgery instead..?

    You’re hittin’ kinda close to home, bro!

    Great post as usual Karl.

    Bob Reed (99fc1b)

  33. @30
    Thanks, Happy. Don’t you just love them cuties?

    The Emperor who feels marmosets need respect too. (0c8c2c)

  34. I do

    happyfeet (6b707a)

  35. I do believe it is still too soon to decide how the obama administration is doing. But i do believe that obama is doing great in taking one step at a time when dealing with the many problems our country is dealing with at the moment.

    anthony (21a02a)


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