6/14/2009

8 Responses to “Mousavi Seeks Fatwa”

1. I think the fact that he is speaking from Paris says it all. Kinda like like putative Somali president who had not been in the country in 30 years. You need to be present before people will take you seriously.

   Not that being taken seriously in Iran is a healthy move.

   Soronel Haetir (a3f11b) — 6/14/2009 @ 8:35 pm

   
   

2. Speaking from Iran through a spokesperson in Paris at least reaches the West unfiltered. And it will get back to Iran. He’s either going to end up becoming another Alexander Dubcek… or Boris Yeltsin.

   DCSCA (9d1bb3) — 6/14/2009 @ 9:40 pm

   
   

3. Khomeini lived in Iraq until September 1978 when he left to live in exile in Paris. It was from Paris that he spoke daily to the media and the Iranian people until the Shah fell in January 1979.

   DRJ (180b67) — 6/14/2009 @ 9:54 pm

   
   

4. The following is a wake-up call. It suggests a large percentage of the Iranian public, in fact, may be quite happy cozying up to an ultra-fanatic.

   There’s the saying that you reap what you sow. And so when I thought Ahmadinejad was not actually embraced by most Iranians, I perceived them in a different light. Now I guess I have to apply to those people the concept of “you reap what you sow.”
   

   Washington Post, By Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty:

   Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin — greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday’s election.

   While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad’s principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran’s provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.

   Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

   The breadth of Ahmadinejad’s support was apparent in our preelection survey. During the campaign, for instance, Mousavi emphasized his identity as an Azeri, the second-largest ethnic group in Iran after Persians, to woo Azeri voters. Our survey indicated, though, that Azeris favored Ahmadinejad by 2 to 1 over Mousavi.

   The only demographic groups in which our survey found Mousavi leading or competitive with Ahmadinejad were university students and graduates, and the highest-income Iranians.

   [T]he integrity of our results is confirmed by the politically risky responses Iranians were willing to give to a host of questions….

   [M]ore than 70 percent of Iranians…expressed support for providing full access to weapons inspectors and a guarantee that Iran will not develop or possess nuclear weapons, in return for outside aid and investment.

   Iranians view their support for a more democratic system, with normal relations with the United States, as consonant with their support for Ahmadinejad. They do not want him to continue his hard-line policies. Rather, Iranians apparently see Ahmadinejad as their toughest negotiator, the person best positioned to bring home a favorable deal — rather like a Persian Nixon going to China.

   Mark (411533) — 6/14/2009 @ 11:03 pm

   
   

5. Could this pressure the mullahs to take sides for or against Ahmadinejad and, ultimately, Khameini?

   Doesn’t matter who the Iranians elect to be their president; if they want real change, then they’re going to have to do something about the mullahs. That’s all there is to it.

   Blacque Jacques Shellacque (1641e7) — 6/14/2009 @ 11:30 pm

   
   

6. I pretty much doubt that Mousavi will have any control over this whatsoever once it starts. Revolutions have a way of running over people who want to stop half-way.

   Kevin Murphy (0b2493) — 6/15/2009 @ 12:50 am

   
   

7. Yet, according to The New York Times, the Iranian leadership has “emerged with a stronger hand.” And the leadership has banned opposition rallies.

   The depressed Dana (3e4784) — 6/15/2009 @ 3:40 am

   
   

8. Kevin: you’re right, which is the great risk (for Khameni) in this scenario: what starts out as a protest movement against Ahmadenijad could take down the entire system.

   Here’s hoping the Iranian people pull it off.

   aphrael (9e8ccd) — 6/15/2009 @ 1:05 pm