[Posted by Karl]
Analyzing Rush Limbaugh’s much-discussed CPAC speech, John Hawkins (who generally liked it) argues that its weakness was the suggestion that all the GOP (or conservatives) needed was a good candidate and that policy was not the problem:
First off, it abandons the whole field of “new ideas” to people who are not conservatives. Liberals are always coming up with new ways to spend our money and grow government.
So if all the prominent “idea men” on “our side” are people who hate social conservatives and love big government, then the conservative movement will have to choose between being forever frozen — or moving farther away from its roots with the adoption of each new idea. That path will lead to a long, slow slide into oblivion.
However, TNR’s infamously Bush-hating Jonathan Chait disagrees:
I think it’s pretty clear that the Democratic comeback since then has had next-to-nothing to with developing “new ideas” and almost everything to do with Republican failure, the state of the economy, and a really effective presidential nominee. yes, Democratic ideas proved more popular, but they really were the same basic ideas the party had advocated for years.
Limbaugh, then, is narrowly right. The GOP’s fortunes are essentially an inverse function of the Obama administration’s fortunes, which is turn depends almost entirely on the state of the world economy.
Although I suspect that Chait and I would disagree over the specifics of “Republican failure,” both positions have merit. The election of President Obama continues a 16-year cycle favoring relatively inexperienced Democrats preaching the gospel of Hopenchange. The cycle is likely generational and related to the natural tendency of parties and movements to spend out their political and intellectual capital over time. Moreover, a review of past presidential campaigns suggests that the winning candidate was generally the superior campaigner.
Nevertheless, policy matters, particularly outside the 16-year cycle. The continuing deterioration of US financial markets — and in Obama’s job approval ratings — stems in part from a lack of investor confidence in the policy proposals of the Obama Administration. As you cannot beat somebody with nobody, you cannot beat something with nothing — which is why the Left has been busy pushing the meme of the GOP as the party of “No.” Everyone from GOP strategists to Juicebox mafioso Matthew Yglesias seem to have figured out that there is ultimately more value to winning an issue than winning a news cycle, which may explain Newt Gingrich’s low-profile comeback in Republican circles.
Unless Republicans and conservatives want to simply wait for the current Democrat or progressive ascendency to play itself out, they will need both a good messenger and alternative proposals, much as they had in the late 1970s and the mid-1990s.
Update: Rich Lowry, after noting the vast difference in the market reaction to Obama vs. the market reaction to FDR:
Two political points: 1) Every day the markets continue to slide, it makes it harder on Obama to blame the mess on President Bush and forswear any responsibility himself; 2) if I were Eric Cantor or John Boehner, I’d be talking about a “real recovery package” every day— payroll and corporate tax cuts, regulatory reforms for the financial and auto industries, relief for small business. None of it is going to pass, of course, but it will dispel the idea that they aren’t for anything and show they are zealous about trying to check the economy’s downward slide.
That was supposedly the plan last week, but the GOP on the Hill seems to be lacking follow-through.
–Karl