Patterico's Pontifications

11/4/2008

Through The Eye of the Needle: How The Math Gets McCain to 270+ If Obama Wins By 51% Or Less in the Nationwide Popular Vote — UPDATED WITH VOTE TOTALS

Filed under: General — WLS @ 2:39 pm



[Posted by WLS Shipwrecked]

UPDATE:  Well, Obama won convincingly, and it looks like he will garner about 53% of a nationwide vote that is coming in around 120 million — about the same as 2004, and a far cry from the 10% increase predicted by virture of all the new voters bein registered by the Dems.  That is a final result of about 63.8 million to 56.3 million, a difference of 7.5 million votes.  That’s outside the margin that I had written about — less than 5 million of 132 million cast —  suggesting that Obama could lose the electoral college if he polled less than 52% nationwide, and won by less than 5 million votes.  I have updated the vote dofferentials in each state below the jump with the actual vote tallies taken from CNN’s website.  I’ve moved my pre-election estimates into (  ), though keep in mind the estimates were increased by me by 10% in anticipation of higher voter turnout which didn’t materialize. 

This is my prediction based on the scenario I have previously posted about here, here, and here.

The Battleground Poll, which I maintain is the least partisan due to the makeup of the polling group, today posted its projected final nationwide vote total as 50.8 to 47.4 in favor of Obama.  Take a close look at the historical accuracy of that poll’s predictions over the past 4 elections.

Using 132 million as the projected vote total — 10%  more than 4 years ago — the outcome on a nationwide basis would be 67.1 million for Obama and 62.6 million for McCain – a difference of 4.5 million votes. 

After the jump, I’ve got a state by state breakdown of my projected differential in the Red v. Blue states, and then in the battleground states.  I’ll update it tomorrow or Thursday with the actual vote totals to see where my analysis was completely out to lunch, or why I should expect to receive a call from Karl Rove offering me a part of his company in exchange for working for him. 

I’m not striving for accuracy with surgical precision here, so big states I’m rounding to the around 100,000 votes, and smaller states I’m rounding to 10,000 votes, and I’m dropping the last three “0s”.  The numbers are mine alone, based on review of exit polling and historical voting totals. 

Red States for McCain, followed by vote differential:

AK (3) —  56  (80)

AL (9) —   450 (400)

AZ (10) — 160 (180)

AR (6) — 210 (180)

GA (15) — 210 (270)

ID (4)  — 170  (350)

KS (6) —  190  (380)

KY (8) — 300 (260)

LA (9) —  270 (200)

MS (6)  — 170  (180)

MT (3) — 16 (30)

NE (5) — 130 (190)

NC (15) —  -10    (100) 

ND (3) —  30  (10)

OK (7) — 460 (500)

SC (8) — 170  (400)

SD (3) — 30  (40)

TN (11) — 400 (500)

TX (34) —  940 (1,500)

UT (5) — 250 (300)

WV (5)  — 90 (140)

WY (3) — 80  (80)

TOTAL —  + 4,770,000 margin (+6,270,000 — though this number assumed a 10% increase in voter turnout which didn’t happen) 

 

Blue States for Obama

CA (55) — 2,440  (2,800)

CT (7) — 340 (400)

DE (3)  — 95 (100)

DC (3) — 195 (200)

HI (4) — 190 (220)

IL (21) — 1,320 (1,500)

ME (4) — 120 (160)

MD (10) — 540 (420)

MA (12) — 785 (550)

MI (17) — 820 (900)

MN (10) — 200 (480)  

NH (4) — 65 (80)

NJ (15) — 530 (900)

NM (5) — 120 (80)

NY (31) — 1,780 (2,350)

OR (7) — 200  (220)  *Only 70% reported

RI (4) — 80  (80)

VT (3) — 105 (80)

WA (11) — 450 (600) *Only 60% reported

WI (10) —  380 (230)

 

TOTALS —   + 10,755,000  (+12,550,000 pre-election estimate) 

[UPDATED:  So, Obama’s difference in the nationwide vote after taking into consideration these “safe” states — with the exception of NC — was +5,985,000.  He wins overall by about 7.5 million votes — meaning he won the battleground states by a combined margin of 1.5 million votes.]

At this point, before the Battelground states, Obama would have an overall nationwide vote lead of about 6.1 million votes.

If he wins ultimately wins nationwide by around 4.5 million votes as the Battleground Poll predicts, then in the aggregate he will lose the remaining battleground states by 1.6 million votes.   Here they are:  CO (9), FL (27), IN (11), IA (7), MO (11), NV (5), OH (20), PA (21), VA (13). 

In my opinion, here are the one’s that go for McCain:

IN (11) —   -25   (160)

MO (10) —   6  (180)

OH (20) —   -250  (300)

VA (13) —   -160  (120)

FL (27) —   -200  (300)

NV (5) —  -120  (40)

PA (21) —    -600  (100)

 

Obama wins 

IA (7) —  140  (80)

CO (9)  —  45  (100).

[The math comes out right — the total winning margin for Obama in the battleground states is about 1,534,000] 

That trims another 1,000,000 votes off Obama’s nationwide lead, and he wins the popular vote by about 5,000,000, but loses the Electoral College 286-252.

23 Responses to “Through The Eye of the Needle: How The Math Gets McCain to 270+ If Obama Wins By 51% Or Less in the Nationwide Popular Vote — UPDATED WITH VOTE TOTALS”

  1. The Obama campaign is now saying that Minnesota is closer than anticipated.

    Oops !

    Mike K (531ff4)

  2. I think he wins NH and maybe IA.

    Mike K (531ff4)

  3. One could only cope. 🙂

    Oiram (983921)

  4. I think you mean “win less than 51%” in your headline, not “win by less than 51%”.

    kaf (2c8cfe)

  5. WLS, New Mexico was a red state last time, so it belongs in the bottom group along with Iowa and Colorado.

    Official Internet Data Office (df6254)

  6. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa. Lots of guns and fishing poles. Rural Wisconsin, particularly, has no affection for Chicago politics. Madison and Milwaukee won’t be enough to save Obama. As for Minnesota Franken’s campaign is a the best Republican GOTV campaign ever. Iowa. Iowahawk. Enough said. I’d throw in Michigan too, but that comes on my second bottle of Whisky.

    coenito (0a20cb)

  7. dont trust the exit polls but drudge is reporting that exit polls in PA show +15 for obama. Most likely +6 in PA -either way its toast.

    Joe - Dallas (d7c430)

  8. Exit polls whould be much more misleading this year due to large early voting, 30-40% plus in some areas, enthusiasim for obama voting early.

    My advice is take a lot of valium so you dont care

    Joe - Dallas (d7c430)

  9. OT and my apologies but this

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q28UwAyzUkE

    vicious anti-Mormon ad has been aired on CNN and MSNBC…

    Even if one doesn’t agree with CA’s Prop 8, this ad is way beyone the pale.

    Darleen (187edc)

  10. Darleen – it is the Right that is angry and full of hate.

    JD (5f0e11)

  11. Y’all are much more optimistic than I.

    JD (5f0e11)

  12. I think that the exit polls will be even worse this year than 2004, the year that they had Kerry believing he had won. The press is so dedicated to an Obama win that they are not above trying to depress turnout in some GOP areas. Early voting has made the exit polls useless anyway but the Obamabots will still try to help him. If there is any Bradley effect, the exit polls will be where it is.

    Mike K (f89cb3)

  13. JD: And also racist.

    Old Coot (8a493c)

  14. Old Coot – bidoon shek.

    JD (5f0e11)

  15. #12 Oh no as of 7:14 pm yahoo news is reporting that McCain is winning 8 to 3 (landslide!) But it’s too early must be a conspiracy!

    Oiram (983921)

  16. “Word in Chicago is spreading: Obama loss is expected. Grant Park rally downgraded to ‘tens of thousands’ instead of the million Obama promised.”

    See story here.

    Official Internet Data Office (df6254)

  17. Test.

    [I found your last comment. The spam filter must be for Obama because it ate it up. — DRJ]

    Official Internet Data Office (df6254)

  18. Has Olberdouchenozzle anointed Teh One yet?

    JD (5f0e11)

  19. Reports of polls staying open in indianapolis – indiana is normally well organized. No logical reason to stay open unless shenanigans

    Joe-Dallas (523342)

  20. I really believe in my heart that Obama will take the crown!

    Christina-Chicago (fcbef1)

  21. I served this country willingly in the intelligence community for 30 years for the right of freedom of choice. Now as I look back and see how complacent and totally irrarional our society have become it scares the hell out of me. We are in a very fragile state. I think Civil War a possible Presidental assination much the same way his own people did to John Kennedy. Sen Obama I would be first in line to congratulate you if you can begin to put this country back on the right track. With big Labor Unions an automotive industyr in a state of total decay we must look to reduce our debt and provide for ourselves and our people. We no longer can afford to be the worlds policeman when we have some many people not willing to work and expect that people who do will pay their way. I will leave my beloved country before that happens. Karl Marx said it in the most proliffic manner in his book in 1948. “We don’t have to worry about the American as they will eventually self-destruct from within” While parish the thought ole Neutron Jack, Jacl Welsh had it right I think. drop a neutron bomb in a stragic place, kill all the people an leave the buildings standing. then we start over by forcing our MEDIA, Public Enemy #1 on a submission to either report the news and let us make ur ouw deceision or stay the hell off the air. ABC,NBC,CBS, and CNN are a public hoax on well meaning American people. Like our liberal universities they now teach what to think rather than instill the desire to learn to make informed decisions.

    Rob (657359)

  22. Oh, Rob. Hush now.

    Fritz (9cc64f)

  23. We shall see what this Obama landslide will become. The Great debacle of our generation or it’s epiphany. It appears very clear at the outset that we as a nation are in big trouble. Obama is not smart enough himself to “save” America and he has not surrounded himself with people smarter than he is to assist in this project. Mark my words, despite what he has said, he will pull too many troops out too fast from the middle east, destabilizing and devastating all our progress there. We will have terrorists striking at us on our home soil and we will become a desperate nation trying to defend itself from within. These things will pale in regards to the increase in national debt that will occur as a result of the “Democrat’s” complete victory. There will be no checks and balances for the first six months. Obama will get all of his ideas passed and initiated. His plans and the congress support will plunge this nation into a depression equivalent to the great depression of the 30’s. People wanted change, but change without checks and balances and leaders smart enough to enact that change is a sure recipe for disaster.

    Dave (0d1a2a)


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