No — I Do Not Write Under The Name “Noam Scheiber” at The New Republic. He Just Steals His Stuff From Me.
Posted by WLS Shipwrecked:
Some guy over at The Plank blog on TNR’s website has decided that the stuff I’ve been saying here for weeks is quite plausible — that Obama could win large margins in large states, win the national vote by 2-3 points, yet still lose squeakers in VA and PA, and return to the ranks as an otherwise undistinguished US Senator from Illinois.
1.) We’re at the point in the race when national trends may start diverging from trends in battleground states where McCain is still competing. After all, having an active campaign in a state makes a big difference. Just look at Michigan since McCain pulled out in early October. According to RCP, Obama is up 1.5 points nationally since October 2, but nearly 4.8 points in Michigan.
McCain is husbanding his resources for the absolute minimum number of electoral votes he needs to win, which means ignoring the national numbers and focusing on everything from Virginia on down the list of battlegrounds. There’s no reason to think he couldn’t lose the popular vote by 2-3 points but still win Virginia by 1.
2.) State polls seem to lag national polls, one-off polls tend to lag tracking polls, and polling averages (like the kind you find at RCP, Pollster.com, and FiveThirtyEight) lag any single poll by design. Which is to say, those state-level averages could easily be 5-7 days behind the current on-the-ground reality.
3.) While eight points is a lot to make up in two weeks, it’s not nearly as daunting over three weeks–well under half a point a day (.38, but who’s counting?). Or put differently: If, as some analysts** believe, the momentum shifted somewhat toward McCain last week, then Virginia could actually be much closer than 8 points today. We just wouldn’t know it till next week.
4.) Throw in a Bradley Effect of even a point or two on top of that, and a few more costly Biden gaffes, and I don’t think Virginia is necessarily out of reach.
Gee, I think I’ve read all of that stuff here before.
The continuing fascination with Virginia is very interesting. If McCain loses Virginia then he’s going to lose nationally by 5-7 points, and Obama will win 350+ electoral votes. The outcome is not going to come down to losing or winning Virginia.
Look back at Jay Costs’ exceptional analysis about how Virginia has been won statewide by Democrats in recent elections. In each instance the key was not Northern Virginia, but rather the Democrat running roughly even with his GOP opponent in southeastern Virginia — the military areas around Hampton Roads and Norfolk.
As Cost points out, in any election scenario where Obama wins by 8-10 points nationally, he’s going to win Virginia. That’s simply too many independents and GOP voters pulling the lever for Obama across the country to think that Virginia would be immune. The more significant question is whether Obama can win Virginia in a close national race.
Only two regions of Virginia went for Kerry in 2004 — the DC suburbs in No. Virginia, and the college town of Charlottesville (UVa).
When Obama beat Clinton soundly in the Va primary, he did so on the basis of a Dem. primary vote that was 42% African-American, rolling up huge margins over her in the counties that were more than 25% African-American by demographics. But he lost to her by huge margins in southwestern VA, which has a demographic much similar to the neighboring states of WVa, TN, KY, and SW PA.
The key to earlier democrat statewide victories in Va — and mirrored by the history of Va going to the GOP in Presidential elections for 6 decades — is whether or not the Dem candidate can break 50% in the Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads/Norfolk areas. Tim Kaine, then the mayor of Richmond, won 60% of the vote in that area. Jim Webb, VN war hero, former GOP member and very conservative new “Dem” won 53% there against George Allen, and won the state by 7000 votes. John Kerry — war hero and all — garnered only 44% of the region and got beat in the state by 8 points by George Bush.
Now, who does Obama remind you of more — Kaine/Webb or Kerry?
To see Obama winning VA — regardless of what the current polling suggests — one would have to believe that John McCain cannot win +55% in the heavy military area around Norfolk Naval Base — where 1 in 10 voters is active duty or retired military — and that Obama can carry a larger share of the vote there than did Kerry.
He’ll do better in the No.Va suburbs than did Webb, and he’ll do better in the heavily African-American counties than did Webb. But he’ll do much worse in western Va than Webb did. The key is the southeastern area around the military bases. But I don’t see him outperforming Webb there — probably won’t even come close. If he does only as well as Kerry did — and he could do worse given Kerry’s military record — he’s got a ton of votes to make-up statewide. Can he do it all in No.Va.? We’ll see.
You’ve even got them scared spitless over at the NY Times blog. Don’t you guys have copyrights ? Not only do you lose your domain but every Tom, Dick and Harry is stealing your stuff without attribution.
Mike K (f89cb3) — 10/24/2008 @ 3:13 pmYou’ve even got them scared spitless over at the NY Times blog. Don’t you guys have copyrights ? Not only do you lose your domain but every Tom, Dick and Harry is stealing your stuff without attribution.
The comments are malfunctioning and the live preview is working right. I’ve tried to post this twice.
Mike K (f89cb3) — 10/24/2008 @ 3:22 pmHere’s something for them to steal. Obama’s spending plans. I doubt they’ll be interested, though.
A new, Cabinet-level, multi-billion-dollar federal Department of Peace, dedicated to “peace education and training.” (H.R. 808)
That ought to work. It had better with Barney Frank’s 25% cut in defense spending.
Mike K (531ff4) — 10/24/2008 @ 3:23 pmOld Hollywood Saying (George Raft, I believe):
“I don’t care what they say about me in the papers as long as they spell my name right.”
Does it matter if there is attribution as long as they are airing the ideas?
Another old saying: Any publicity is good publicity.
The more widespread the discussion, the more people who will be exposed to,
Another Drew (b199b1) — 10/24/2008 @ 3:26 pmand make up their own minds to, the validity of the argument.
Turns out that the supposed 1.3 millions new voters ACORN registered? Didn’t happen actually.
So here’s the question, how much of the bogus “likely voter” polls that shifted so much recently in Obama’s favor were being erroneously adjusted for nonexistant Obama voters?
SPQR (26be8b) — 10/24/2008 @ 6:06 pmHopefully 5-7%.
DRJ (c953ab) — 10/24/2008 @ 6:10 pm“4.) Throw in a Bradley Effect of even a point or two on top of that”
Do you read fivethirtyeight? he’s kinda knocked down the bradley effect thing
imdw (23c2b4) — 10/24/2008 @ 7:02 pmInterestingly, it turns out that Obama’s internal polling shows things pretty close in Pennsylvania. Closer than the media polling.
SPQR (26be8b) — 10/24/2008 @ 7:39 pmApparently these geniuses haven’t heard of Joe the Plumber. Or as he was known to Dukakis, Tim the Tank.
Jim Treacher (592cb4) — 10/24/2008 @ 8:53 pmI keep hearing this repeated, but it categorically isn’t true: Obama will NOT do better with urbanites OR African-Americans than any other Democrat has done in the past.
Whoever the Democratic candidate is has ALWAYS gotten pretty much every vote available in those two categories – at least in recent memory.
For example, Philadelphia reported a 100% voter turnout in the last election. How are they going to do better than that? They might actually get more REAL votes than in previous elections: but you can’t go over 100%.
The difference is always made with the squishy “independent” voters who are convincable. But urbanites and the vast majority of African-Americans have NEVER fallen into this category. NO Republican is going to EVER earn those votes, and no Democrat is EVER going to lose them barring some cataclysmic shift in the country.
Jim B (95a401) — 10/25/2008 @ 12:07 amimdw –
Reading fivethirtyeight is a waste of time unless you like living in the Democratic echo chamber. It’s the place for the thumbsuckers from dKos and DU go to get their egos massaged.
If you think the Bradley effect doesn’t exist for whatever reason, then fine I’m not going to argue with you because I think that most polls are crap anyway – more a reflection of the organization commissioning them than they are of the people they’re polling.
You can call it whatever you like, but Obama consistently underperformed his pre-election polling throughout the Democratic primaries by upwards of 7%.
Read this again: Obama underperforms by upwards of 7%. This year. In a Democratic primary. Not the general election. The primary. You think somehow things have changed in the last few months?
Now Republicans are in the mix. And Independents. And suddenly Obama’s performance vs. the polls is supposedly going to make a quantum leap upwards when he couldn’t do it within his own party? On what planet is this supposed to happen?
Really…it’s just a matter of common sense…something which is usually lacking when you’re depending on such a partisan hack site like fivethirtyeight to do your analysis for you.
Jim B (95a401) — 10/25/2008 @ 12:15 am538 rules.
IBD/TIPP just got served.
Lissen up, Palinbots and conservo-dinosaurs, y’all about to get hit with the political equivalent of the K-T Boundary Extinction event.
May your years in the wilderness be long and educational.
lol
griefer (b14601) — 10/25/2008 @ 7:28 am– Jim B.
Oh, Jim. So young. So much to learn.
I think McCain will probably pull this out, but it will be interesting to see how many cities manage to beat 105% turnout. You may be quite surprised.
Clint (e32e9a) — 10/25/2008 @ 8:40 amgriefer, I’ve done a lot of ocean racing in sailboats. We had a rule. “The Danforth doesn’t lie.” Now, Danforth makes anchors and the rule refers to a tendency for other competitors to exaggerate how well they are doing when the daily position report is collected. On long races, like to Hawaii, everybody reports his position twice a day for safety reasons. If you hit a floating container and sink, for example, the fleet knows where you were last report and starts to look for you there. The trouble with this theory is that the newspapers, at least in the old days, published position reports everyday and those are used to calculate who is ahead in the race. The temptation to place your boat a few miles closer to the finish than you really are is pretty strong. Everybody likes to read about himself in the newspaper. However, when the race is over and everybody anchors, the lies are over. The Danforth doesn’t lie.
That same appears to apply to political campaigns. On November 5, we will know who won. You may get a warm tingle down your leg, or wherever you tingle, but polls on left wing sites may not be the most reliable predictors of the outcome. We’ll see soon enough.
Mike K (2cf494) — 10/25/2008 @ 9:14 amMike K, I grew up on Lake Michigan, sailing my dad’s old Tigercat.
I also have a masters in math/stat.
griefer (b14601) — 10/25/2008 @ 10:11 amI’ll go with 538, tyvm, over your seastories.
Comment by griefer — 10/25/2008 @ 10:11 am
Isn’t it amazing how all of these left-wing posters are possessers of advanced degrees, successful business careers, and close-knit families?
Do they all live in Lake Woebegone?
More like Mount Idey!
Another Drew (a9cfc2) — 10/25/2008 @ 10:39 ambtw, im still a registered republican.
griefer (b14601) — 10/25/2008 @ 11:16 amI’m a Powell/Adelman/Buckley republican.
And I’m voting for Obama.
Just another whore!
Another Drew (a9cfc2) — 10/25/2008 @ 11:23 amFor example, Philadelphia reported a 100% voter turnout in the last election. How are they going to do better than that?
Yes, they can! Ever hear a coach ask for 110% effort? Well, that’s what BO has asked for from ACORN et al. Brunner in Ohio got the message as did, undoubtedly, many other election officials throughout the country.
VA probably goes to MCcain very narrowly. PA is where this thing will be decided. Interesting that Murtha may get the boot there. Could it have coattails? One can hope. People may be waking up to the fact that they are going to be labeled racist regardless of how they vote so where’s the downside for them at that point?
As for the Bradley effect, I tend to subscribe to the theory of a reverse Bradley. The muddle is more likely to report support for BO due to fear of being labeled racist. How much? My guess is 3-5% but it’s just a guess, obviously.
Good work WLS. We’ll see what pans out. I think there’s still a marginal chance for MP to pull this thing off. Maybe one in five or four. Drawing to an inside straight at this point.
Chris (cefe13) — 10/25/2008 @ 1:04 pmBradley Effect…
I would remind readers to look at this article in the WSJ from someone who was on the inside in the 1982 election for why the Bradley Effect occurred
Another Drew (a9cfc2) — 10/25/2008 @ 1:15 pmhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB122446015501248689.html?mod=djemEditorialPage.
AD,
I concur. No Bradley effect (realizing the article says it never truly existed in the first place-it’s cw at this point though) in this election but possibly a reverse Bradley.
Barack has underperformed the polls consistently. He will likely do so on election night, the only question being, by how much?
Chris (cefe13) — 10/25/2008 @ 1:27 pmComment by Chris — 10/25/2008 @ 1:27 pm
Well, IIRC, his average underperformance at the end of the Primary season (no caucuses) was about 7%.
Another Drew (a9cfc2) — 10/25/2008 @ 1:49 pmIf he underperforms to that level, he’s in deep doo-doo!
“Read this again: Obama underperforms by upwards of 7%. ”
Putting it inbold makes it easier to read, but I’d like to know where you get it from. Because over at 538, they show thedata that leads to this:
“On average, Barack Obama overperformed the Pollster.com trendline by 3.3 points on election day.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/if-bradley-effect-is-gone-what-happened.html
imdw (7c85b9) — 10/25/2008 @ 2:45 pmgriefer reminds me, doesn’t Moby owe us an album?
Hey, griefer, get back in the studio!
SPQR (26be8b) — 10/26/2008 @ 3:22 pm