Posted by WLS:
We’re now 26 days out from the election, and the Real Clear Politics Average of all published national polls gives Obama a statistically significant edge at 49.1 to 43.5.
The range of published polls is from the Gallup Daily Tracking Poll that has Obama +11, to the Battleground Tracking Poll and a couple others which has Obama +3. I mention the Battleground Poll because I’ve always thought it was one of the most trustworthy because it’s jointly done by a GOP pollster and a Dem. pollster, who have separate polling firms but conduct the Battleground poll together every four years.
On the other hand, Gallup is one of the last organizations that is still tracking “Registered Voters” rather than “Likely Voters.” As a result, when it weighs its poll results it is not screening out voters who have historically voted in percentages less than their registration numbers suggested. This tends to both over-represent segments of the population not likely to vote in proportion to their registration statistics, while at the same time watering-down the impact of those segments of the population that have historically voted in higher than average percentage in relationship to the population overall.
Right now at realclearpolitics.com there are 10 national polls with numbers from samples taken over the past 8 days. Of those 10 polls, 7 are of LV, while 3 are of RV.
The numbers from the LV polls are:
Rasmussen: Obama +5 — 50-45
Hotline/FD: Obama +6 — 47-41
Rueters/Zogby: Obama +4 — 48-44
Battleground: Obama +3 — 48-45
CBS/NYT : Obama +3 — 48-45
CNN: Obama +8 — 53-45
Democracy Corps — Obama +3 49-43
The average of those 7 polls of LV is: 49-44 — Obama +5
That includes the CNN poll which has Obama +8 and at 53%, and appears to be an outlier. Without that one he’s at 48.3. McCain’s number would dip slightly to 43.8, and the lead would be 4.5%.
Here are the three RV polls:
Gallup: Obama +11 — 52-41
NBC/WSJ: Obama +6 — 49-43
Ipsos/McClatchey: Obama +7 — 47-40
Average: 49.3 — 41.3 — Obama +8.
That’s a swing of 3.5% between the two sets of polls. IMO, Gallup can be ignored from this point forward unless they switch to a LV poll.