Patterico's Pontifications

8/30/2008

The Palin Bounce

Filed under: 2008 Election — WLS @ 1:18 pm



Today’s Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls include surveys up through Friday. Both polls say the Palin announcement came early enough in the day that their polling was able to take into consideration both Obama’s convention speech on Thursday night and the Palin announcement on Friday morning.

Bear in mind that Obama stretched his lead in both tracking polls with surveys taken Thursday morning — BEFORE his speech, but after the Clintons’ speeches and Biden’s speech.

After those Thursday surveys, Obama led 49-41 in the Gallup poll of registered voters and 49-45 in the Rasmussen poll of likely voters.

Today’s polls, including Friday surveys, have each race exactly the same as Thursday — 49-41 and 49-45.

More significantly, in Rasmussen’s breakdown of the polling, it found the following:

Palin earns positive reviews from 78% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. Obviously, these numbers will be subject to change as voters learn more about her in the coming weeks. Among all voters, 29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view.

By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters.

In the new survey, 35% of voters say the selection of Palin makes them more likely to vote for McCain while 33% say they are less likely to do so. Most Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Palin and most Democrats say the opposite. As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so.

As Rasmussen notes, these numbers are certain to change over the course of the next 11 weeks. But I think the McCain campaign is thrilled with the first impression that she made and the manner it is reflected in the polling.

3 Responses to “The Palin Bounce”

  1. Wow.

    DRJ (7568a2)

  2. I could make a comment about Palin and bouncing, but the women here would slaughter me. 🙂

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)


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