Patterico's Pontifications

8/25/2008

Gallup Polling Interesting

Filed under: General — WLS @ 2:31 pm



[Posted by WLS]

Gallup’s tracking poll, a rolling 3 day average of about 850 voters per day, has the race tied 45-45.  This is the same result as yesterday. 

What is interesting, however, is that today’s poll includes two days of polling after Biden was named to the VP slot.  The rolling totals for Wed-Fri, the last 3 days before Biden was named, had Obama +2 — 46-44. 

That difference is statistically insignificant.  But this isn’t — on August 12, Obama was up 48-42.  So, over the past 13 days Obama has moved -4, while McCain has gone +3. 

Now he has gotten no bounce out of Biden, and the convention begins in disarray. 

Where will he be on Friday?  Surely he will get some bounce out of the convention, but how high will it be and how long will it last?

UPDATE:  I was trying to figure out what event took place in the time-frame that Obama’s numbers dropped from 48.  I had it in my head that it was the Saddleback forum, but I knew that took place on the following Saturday, after his numbers were declining. 

It just dawned on me what it was — Russia invaded Georgia on August 8.  That fact on the ground didn’t really take hold in the US for a couple days, not until pictures of the fighting as well as the belligerent attitude of the Russian government started to emerge.  Since then Obama has fallen and McCain has risen.

And Obama tapped Biden.

— WLS

6 Responses to “Gallup Polling Interesting”

  1. Yep… in this age, those who want to know about Obama and Mccain already know plenty.

    It’s going to be hard to ‘gin up excitement’ on television. People want to know about Iraq, Georgia, Oil prices, mortgages, corruption, etc.

    The Democrats have to fight against the messiah and Paris Hilton attacks and simultaneously make Obama look like an exciting star. I don’t think this is possible, and I think other stories, such as Hillary’s delegates, will dominate. Mccain will be running tons of ads about democrats voting Mccain all week, just to ensure that the media keeps asking about this issue.

    If Obama wants a bounce, all he can do is be specific about how he will fix all these problems. I’ve seen proposals on websites, but Obama has already told us his website is free to be full of BS. Obama has to take the pulpit and speak out about his solutions to bring hope and change and lollipops.

    Oh, and the news is saying that they will indeed shut down the delegate vote. Basically it’s a fake vote. Niccccccccccce. They shouldn’t have done this today. They are kicking off their convention with a scandal.

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  2. There’s nothing like getting smacked around by the local bully to turn sanctmonious pacifists into vocal advocates for collective security arrangements. It doesn’t work very well, but that’s about as far as pacifists can go, and now of course everyone feels lots better.

    Ropelight (4a83c9)

  3. The media is going to put this race at a dead heat. The supposed liberal media is actually a money media.

    Who benefits from a dead heat race? The media does. Contrary to popular belief here could care less who wins the presidency.

    Oiram (983921)

  4. Oiram — then axplain the Battleground Poll. They are not media.

    WLS (26b1e5)

  5. No amount of popcorn(even made with coconut oil)could persuade me to watch the Demo convention. I expect to watch Southpark reruns instead.

    Bar Sinister (b50c99)

  6. Gallup now has it 46-44 for McCain. PRetty bad “bounce” for The One.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)


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