I Don’t Have a Burning Preference for McCain VP, but I Think the Choice of Biden Makes Romney the Most Beneficial Pick
[Posted by WLS]
By not playing gender or geographical politics with his selection, Obama has given McCain the opportunity to do so.
If you look at the election map, it pretty much looks like the finish of the Bush-Kerry race, with only a couple of potential switches.
But, if McCain picks Romney, I think he cements two states that will make it very difficult for Obama to find a path to 270. I think Romney brings McCain Nevada without question, and very likely brings him Michigan.
Nevada, with an increasing minority population and very powerful union presence, is a Bush state that the Dems see as ripe for Obama to pick off. But Romney probably solidifies the state for McCain because 7% of the Nevada population is Mormon. It has the 5th highest % of Mormons among all the states. Mormons tend to vote GOP anyway, but having Romney on the ticket will drive up turnout.
Romney’s long family ties to Michigan, combined with the sad state of the Michigan economy which is presided over by Dems at all levels of state Gov’t, AND the fact that Obama/Biden may be one of the least gun-friendly tickets in recent history — and the NRA is strong in Michigan — all work to move Michigan over to McCain’s column.
If McCain takes Nevada and Michigan, he can lost Ohio and Pennsylvania and still win. He can lose Virginia and Pennsylvania and still win.
Obama would have to win Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania to win — and if he wins those three, he’ll probably be winning by more than a razor thin margin.
So, if I were McCain, I’d play geographic politics with the pick, and put Obama behind the electoral 8 Ball.