Obama’s 50-State 43-State Strategy
[Guest post by DRJ]
From commenter Rick Ballard comes this Fox News report that the Obama campaign has stopped advertising in 7 states and may be dropping his 50-state strategy:
“Of the seven states — including Alaska, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota — Florida and Virginia are considered key battlegrounds this year. Obama’s decision to stop advertising in those states is raising eyebrows.
Aides to Obama told FOX News that the changes are related to the convention next week but they wouldn’t discuss the specifics of their ad strategy.”
I can’t believe Obama plans to stop ads in Florida and Virginia for long, but why continue ads in Texas? Maybe Chet Edwards is the VP.
In any event, it seems WLS was right that Obama can’t keep spending money at current rates given recent fundraising.
— DRJ
I’m surprised that Illinois isn’t on that list. I would count Illinois as in the bag – even though I won’t be voting for him. Never have (and not Keyes either – I did a write-in vote) and never will.
kimsch (2ce939) — 8/22/2008 @ 1:02 pmIf Obama doesn’t pour money into Florida, he is conceding the election.
Icy Truth (48f459) — 8/22/2008 @ 1:25 pmWasn’t it originally a 57-state strategy? So he’s given up on East Kentucky … and 13 others already?
aunursa (1b5bad) — 8/22/2008 @ 1:29 pmHeh. I thought about calling this post “The
DRJ (a5243f) — 8/22/2008 @ 1:32 pm57-State50-State43-State Strategy” but I decided that wouldn’t be nice.IT,
He “poured in” $5 million in July and got bupkis for the dough. I’d be happy to see him spend every dime he has in FL. I don’t think it would affect the outcome at all. VA is a different story. VA’s median age is 36.9 where FL’s is 39.2. 11.6% of Virginians are over 65 where 16.8% of Floridians are of that age. If there really is a Bradley effect, I believe it reasonable to presume that it will be most pronounced among those over 65. Not that Obama has a ton of fans in that age bracket to begin with.
Florida is also much less susceptible to the ACORN/SEIU thugs knock and drag tactics upon which so much of Obama’s dream rests. There is definitely a diminishing return at work in putting additional effort into Miami/Dade. It’s sort of like Philly in that respect – once you hit 100% there isn’t anything left to get.
Rick Ballard (0a8990) — 8/22/2008 @ 1:45 pmRick,
Virginia has 13 electoral votes; Florida has 27.
Icy Truth (48f459) — 8/22/2008 @ 1:59 pmDRJ – But it would have been funny… 🙂
Rick – Also, a lot of his support in FL must be coming from the college crowd, which has seen a recent decline in it’s support of Obama.
Scott Jacobs (a1c284) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:02 pmFundraising is another reason picking Hillary for VP makes sense. While Obama claims to be king of internet fundraising, Hillary’s network of fundraisers — especially among businesswomen — would bring in tens of millions of more dollars for the general election than Obama will be able to raise without her.
WLS (26b1e5) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:02 pmI think he advertises in Illiniois not so much for the Illinois markets, but for the southern Wisconsin market, and the northwestern Indiana market. There is lots of media overlap there — and even some to the south with Missouri.
WLS (26b1e5) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:05 pmHe also gets some bleed-over into Indiana, I think…
Scott Jacobs (a1c284) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:17 pmIF that report is accurate, the ones that really raise eyebrows are Virginia, North Carolina and Georgia. It pretty much amounts to a concession that increased turnout among African-American voters is not going to give him any states in the South — and that Virginia is not that close in their own polling. That probably knocks Kaine off the VP list.
IF — and its a big if — this is tantamount to a concession on these 7 states, the the electoral map by which Obama can get to 271 is dramatically smaller. The smaller map will depend on Obama winning 2 of 3 of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Over at ElectionProjection.com, they have a map up as of today that gives those Michigan and Penn. to Obama, but Ohio to McCain, and ends up with the race in a 269-269 tie. But to get there Obama has to carry Nevada, New Hampshire.
This is going to be fun. My prediction is that McCain wins Nevada and wins the election.
WLS (26b1e5) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:29 pmScott,
I believe that the 18-29s will come back to Obama, perhaps not to the 64% support level but to 53-57%, as they did for Kerry. That bracket represents 21% of the VAP and 17% of the vote nationally. In FL it’s only 18% of the VAP and would account for 14.5% of the total vote.
I don’t believe that Obama will formally toss in the towel on FL but I do believe that it’s a poor bet wrt asset allocation, even if it does have twice the electoral college votes of VA. VA is just a much juicier target with all the DC job holders who know that Obama will give them a very nice dollop of butter for their bread.
Rick Ballard (0a8990) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:30 pmAs a resident of VA, thank God I won’t have to listen to any more of the inane Obama crap. Maybe now I can watch something other than The Weather Channel.
dhmosquito (87c6b9) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:50 pm“I can’t believe Obama plans to stop ads in Florida and Virginia for long”
– DRJ
Not unless he’s putting someone on the ticket that will guarantee Virginia without him spending any money there.
Leviticus (45e169) — 8/22/2008 @ 2:53 pmWho the hell says that putting Kaine on the ticket will guarantee Virginia?
Icy Truth (48f459) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:00 pmIn the event of a 269-269 electoral tie, then each state would get one vote, determined by its house delegation. I believe that the Democrats have a majority of House members in 26 states, meaning Obama would win the tiebreaker.
aunursa (1b5bad) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:02 pmThe incredible shrinking Obama, or
Perfect Sense (9d1b08) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:12 pmHoney – I shrunk my electoral map.
Looks like Bayh is the pick
Rick Ballard (0a8990) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:22 pmDuring the primaries HillShrillGrabItFromTheTillary beat Obama on the electoral map. These guys are the kings of self-destruction.
Icy Truth (48f459) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:27 pmLooks like most of us have known that for like a month.
Icy Truth (48f459) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:28 pmJust for sadistic fun … according to one blogger, here are some ways Obama could achieve a 269-269 tie. Obama would have to get 17 more votes than Kerry did. Assume all states remain the same as 2004 expect:
1. Obama wins Iowa (7) and either Arizona (10) or both Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5).
2. Obama win Florida (27) or both Ohio (20) and Iowa (7) and McCain wins Wisconsin (10)
3. Obama wins Colorado (9), Iowa (7), and New Mexico (5) and McCain wins New Hampshire (4)
4. Obama wins Florida (27) and Missouri (11) and McCain wins Pennsylvania (21).
5. Obama wins Florida (27) and Iowa (7) and McCain wins Michigan (17).
6. Obama wins Ohio (20), Colorado (9), and New Mexico (5) and McCain wins Michigan (17).
7. Obama wins Florida (27), Ohio (20), Iowa (7), and either New Mexico (5) or Nevada (5), and McCain wins Pennsylvania (21), Michigan (17), and New Hampshire (4).
aunursa (1b5bad) — 8/22/2008 @ 3:31 pmIf Obama made the ghost of Sam Houston his VP it’d still be tough to take Texas – Virginia, in particular, I’m really surprised at though. I’ve gotten into heated arguments with friends of mine over whether McCain can win and that state was always key in this because he was so close.
In Florida he got close too, but I can see other factors involved and he had to have a large disparity in spending on ads to get close there. VA I really thought he had a good chance to win.
Anon (db8e0c) — 8/22/2008 @ 5:36 pmObama is NOT abandoning these states – in fact he is going to Montana en route to Denver. In FL and VA he is tied…this is a stupid post.
Two points for your to consider:
1) Why pay for ads when the convention et al is free
2) If you want to really measure your post convention bounce in these “red” states doing it in a week where there are no ads on the air.
As on poster pointed out they are sick of the ads so a week off does not hurt.
John Nail (2a49de) — 8/22/2008 @ 6:40 pmAs on poster pointed out they are sick of the ads so a week off does not hurt.
So isn’t he stopping them everywhere else?
Anon (db8e0c) — 8/22/2008 @ 6:44 pmSorry – being sarcastic – I should be more clear, if that’s true why stop it in just these and continue elsewhere?
Anon (db8e0c) — 8/22/2008 @ 6:46 pmaunursa –
Let’s reduce and clarify your options a bit. Obama will not win Arizona or Missouri; McCain will win New Hampshire, but will not win Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. so re-tool w/o #’s 2,4 & 7.
Icy Truth (9e8038) — 8/22/2008 @ 6:57 pm