Patterico's Pontifications

8/21/2008

The Vice Presidents

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 8:38 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

Reportedly tomorrow is the day Barack Obama will announce his VP selection. It’s been a closely guarded secret that is driving the media insane:

“Obama refused to say whether he’d notified his pick or when exactly he would send cell phones buzzing with the answer delivered via text message. He seemed to relish the frustrations of scores of reporters following him this week in anticipation of the announcement.

“Wouldn’t you like to know?” he said with a grin when asked by an Associated Press reporter when the text would be sent.

“I’ve made the selection, that’s all you’re gonna get,” Obama said as he visited a store selling roasted Virginia peanuts as nonchalantly as any other day campaigning in a battleground state.”

The campaigns are doing all they can to generate excitement and get a bounce from their VP selections. I don’t blame the campaigns but I’m not very interested in the decisions unless they are truly unexpected, and I don’t expect that to happen. People don’t want “truly unexpected” behavior from final Presidential nominees.

Let’s see who has the best ESP, political judgment, or both. Who do you pick for Obama’s Vice President? Feel free to guess McCain’s pick, too.

— DRJ

77 Responses to “The Vice Presidents”

  1. Obama? Sebelius

    McCain? Perhaps Whitman. Likely Pawlenty. Dreadful suspicion: Ridge.

    McCain always seems to stick his thumb in eyes of his base.

    steve miller (b589d7)

  2. Ridge would be a dreadful choice.

    I’ve thought for some time now that Sen. should pick Sen. Lieberman, and I would be happy with Gov. Sibelius.

    aphrael (9e8ccd)

  3. I’m going to give the Obama campaign a lot of credit here. I think the entire Kaine/Bayh/Biden/Sebilius nonsense has been a smokescreen. I think they jumped on the McCain house story today to further divert the press’s attention.

    I think his announcement tomorrow will be that its Hillary. They planted stories a couple weeks ago that the rift between the two sides lingers, then let the entire convention be divided between them like North and South Korea.

    A HUGE PR move that would make the convention issue completely meaningless would be to pick her as VP. His campaign needs a BIG moment, and that would be it.

    The price he pays is bringing her and Bill into his orbit — but I think his campaign can see now that they may have to pay that price if he wants to win.

    She can’t say no now — especially since it appears more likely that he really needs her to win. If he picks her he’ll have a 15 point lead by next Friday, and McCain may never recover.

    Anyone else means Obama remains the story — and that story right now isn’t selling.

    WLS (26b1e5)

  4. I don’t think Hillary will be it unless Bill drops dead this week. If I were him, I would be employing a food taster until after the convention.

    Mike K (2cf494)

  5. I call Biden for Obama, and Romney for McCain…

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  6. What’s bad is they could both easily pick the same person… I can see either of them picking Hillary Clinton or Joe Lieberman… or even each other. A simultaneous announcement from both campaigns that the loser in the general election will serve as VP.

    Likely? Not at all. Possible? I wouldn’t put anything past either of them. As it is, the VP doesn’t matter to me, but I’ll make my guesses.

    McCain – Pawlenty
    Obama – Hillary

    Stashiu3 (460dc1)

  7. The scary thing, WLS, is that you make a lot more sense (with your Hillary speculation) than others here. Obama will not pick Sibelius; McCain will not pick Lieberman. Everybody had pretty much settled on Pawlenty and Bayh; then, with a couple extra days to kill, they let their imaginations get the better of them.

    If Obama picks Sibelius, the Hillarybots will go into all-out mutiny. Ditto for McCain and the GOP base if he picks Lieberman (or Ridge). If Obama picks Biden, who is almost 66, he loses any credibility in attacking McCain’s age. If Obama picks Kaine it will be purely to deliver Virginia; Bayh probably won’t deliver Indiana, but he has way more experience than Kaine.

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  8. Obama needs a broad from New York who has more cojones than he has and can appeal to working class Democrat males. Let’s monitor Geraldine Ferraro’s travel plans tomorrow.

    JVW (d54fc4)

  9. — If you want to talk bumper-stickers:

    McCain/Romney

    Obama/Kaine

    — If you want to talk appearance (oh boy! here comes the minefield):
    Sibelius is chunky; Kaine is chunky and his hair sucks; Bayh has good hair but beady eyes; Hillary . . . cankles!
    Lieberman . . . well he made it onto the ticket in 2000; Ridge is chunky; Romney is perfect — maybe too perfect; Pawlenty has a hook nose, but not too bad. Sarah Palin . . . well, she just doesn’t have enough experience yet — dammit!

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  10. BHO/Bayh

    McCain/Romney

    Bayh delivers Indiana. Romney delivers Michigan.

    YMMV.

    Ed (ddaac8)

  11. That isn’t certain in either case, especially with Bayh.

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  12. With HRC on the ticket the lightworker would probably win. But he would have a hell of a time governing. Bill & Hill would stab him in the back every time they could.

    Obama/Bayh
    McCaine/Romney

    Stu707 (6e4ad5)

  13. Oprah Winfrey.

    nk (3c7a86)

  14. Half-assed prediction: if Obama doesn’t make a selection tailor-made for irked (female) Clinton supporters, McCain goes with Palin or some other viable female candidate.

    Leviticus (c72d16)

  15. I believe in my heart it should be Tootie from The Facts of Life.

    A) She’s a woman. B) She’s a black American
    C) She can tie up the coveted TV Land vote, and
    D) They can head straight to Dancing With The Stars after November.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  16. Caroline Kennedy. Or Bill Richardson.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  17. WLS, your Hillary take is dynamite. Sure sounds likely when you lay it out like that. But there’s so many sound bytes out there, especially from HRC… and Bill. So the logistics for the day after, and every day till November, would be quite intriguing.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  18. Bill Kristol thinks it may be Sen. Jack Reed from Rhode Island. He has an impressive biography.

    DRJ (a5243f)

  19. VN,
    And you say that I’m the funny one.

    BTW, go with Lark Voorhies from Saved By The Bell. She’s younger and hotter.

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  20. DRJ, you seen your mail today?

    Scott Jacobs (d3a6ec)

  21. WLS — 8/21/2008 @ 8:52 pm
    She [Hillary] can’t say no now

    She better, because it’s political suicide for her to sign on to Obama’s campaign. I find no reason to think that she won’t try to sink him, and return in 4. The VP slot is a political coffin for most, and with her baggage (remember, she lost to a relative newcomer) it would draw all the negative attention via Bill with no chance at doing anything other than the usual invisible VP busywork.

    One other problem – B.O.’s backers are Chicago, and the Clintons would definitely be too difficult to control. Does anyone really think Hillary wouldn’t engineer a scandal to take his place?

    Apogee (366e8b)

  22. Yeah, but the Screech contingency is left out. It gets dicey.

    Why can’t O drop $50 mil on Hill’s debts before the announcement. That fee, and her spouse, are the main problems. But for Obama it would be the best campaign investment he could make: secure the Juntas. Or Cougars. The PUMAS… whatever.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  23. Does anyone really think Hillary wouldn’t engineer a scandal to take his place?

    I would quit praying for world peace to see this happen.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  24. Ya know, the Hillbos (that’s right; I said it) are at the right age, but possess completely incompatible temperements to be cougars.

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  25. Eek! “Temperaments”. I’d be really embarrassed . . . if I gave a crap.

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  26. Obama would be a fool not to pick Hillary.

    But we already know that about him. Bayh it is.

    Boring Bayh means McCain won’t have to do anything drastic, so he will take Pawlenty, or maybe Sarah Palin.

    Daryl Herbert (4ecd4c)

  27. With a diamond studded collar, any Hillbo can be a tigress. Or not.

    I didn’t see DRJ’s latest post and the Boston Globe’s tally at $24M. I still don’t understand why he hasn’t paid her off. He needs the Hillary votes, regardless of who his VP is.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  28. my guess: William Ayers, who will not accept as he will accidentially blow himself up working on a bomb – when explained to the dying Ayers that Obama intended for him to be VP, Ayers will gasp “Oh no, I was making the bomb because I thought that is what he meant by my ‘getting back into’ the political process……” and then promptly die and find to his chagrin that hell exists and he is the newest resident.

    Californio (970696)

  29. Despite her considerable *ahem* assets, Sarah Palin doesn’t have enough political experience yet to be seriously considered for VP. Unless there is an 11th-hour switch to Jindal, put your money on Pawlenty.

    Icy Truth (f4d960)

  30. Icy, how is Palin inferior to Jindal?

    I agree she hasn’t much experience.

    I’m guessing Romney. The pro-choice vetting seemed like a foil to scare the fanatics, and they would be relieved with Romney at this point. I don’t see why else Mccain would have done that.

    I don’t like Romney much, due to his incessant flip flopping. He’s like the conservative Obama. But he would be a capable president if something happened to Mccain, which is an important advantage.

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  31. “She better, because it’s political suicide for her to sign on to Obama’s campaign. I find no reason to think that she won’t try to sink him, and return in 4.”

    Apogee, I have thought this for a very long time, too. But looking at it right now, if you’re Obama and you sense the ship might be sinking, why not try to tie Hillary to the mast? That way, she has incentive to help you keep the ship afloat, instead of an incentive to lob missiles at you from the shore.

    NCC (c36902)

  32. I don’t anticipate this being the pick, but can anyone tell me why Mccain wouldn’t pick Kay Bailey Hutchinson?

    I guess she’s a legislator too, so that’s no good. But she’s a woman with a lot of experience. I guess she brings no states, per se.

    Other women like Dole and Rice seem very unlikely. Palin I would be thrilled with, even though she’s inexperienced. We would be cultivating a future party leader.

    Obama would be a fool to select Hillary. And he would be a fool not to. He has puffed this selection up to the point where if it isn’t a historical shocker, then he’s screwed up and will look like Paris Hilton. So I really do think it’s Hillary. Reports that this will lead to 15 point leads are probably ridiculously exaggerated. Right? I mean… right? I’m scared to consider that being true.

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  33. I have always thought that Baracky’s VP pick will be the final undoing of the Hopey Changey New Express. When he picks a Beltway Insider, it will be the final confirmation needed that he is just another politician, not that we do not know that already.

    In my very humble opinion, he could have used this as an opportunity to look outside of politics, to bring in a new name, face, a fresh look – someone actually new and changey. He could have used this pick to bring in a dynamic young business leader, anything. But instead he has a series of politicos. I believe he missed a golden opportunity to walk away with the election. Thank you, Baracky.

    JD (75f5c3)

  34. JD, he hasn’t picked anyone yet (out loud).

    He may very well be smart enough to pick a total newcomer… a wise professor, a judge, a successful businessman like Steve Jobs. A school teacher similar to that Stand and Deliver guy. He could pick me, which would make him unbeatable.

    Granted, he won’t. But he could.

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  35. That’s true – he might go for some successful business executive. But that exec would need to be someone who wants to have taxes raised on business. So that’s out.

    He might go for a celebrity such as George Clooney. That would get him votes from people that think merely being a star is enough for political office. (Yeah, I know. REAGAN! BEDTIME FOR BONZO! But he successfully parlayed his years of speechifying into popular support for a run at office, and was early on considered papabile.) But a mere star would only emphasize that Bambi is a lightweight, AND that he still is making terrible short-term decisions.

    He could go for the “in your face” move and just ask Al Sharpton. That would make Bambi seem less idiotic in comparison, I suppose, every time Al would speak, but then what happens on Day 2 of the convention?

    steve miller (e03694)

  36. How about Jaimee Foxworth from Family Matters?

    I pray that McCain does NOT pick Ridge. Ridge is such a dud whose prominence is based on his color-coded terrorist threat level scale as Homeland Security head. We know how wonderfully that new bureaucracy has turned out.

    Monterey Jack Klompus (cf3660)

  37. #33 – JD

    I have always thought that Baracky’s VP pick will be the final undoing of the Hopey Changey New Express. When he picks a Beltway Insider, it will be the final confirmation needed that he is just another politician, not that we do not know that already.

    Andrea Mitchell (whose level of accuracy recently has been questionable at best) says it’s going to be Biden for Obama. There you go, JD. A beltway insider who also eliminates the talking point about McCain’s age. Looks like a lock in the “what do you know, he’s just a regular politician after all” ‘revelation’.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  38. Biden would be interesting. He could further explain how Bambi is “clean and articulate.” At some point, he might also bring in tap-dancing. I mean, there’s no hidden racism or anything in Biden’s statements.

    This would be real good. I’m thinking of investing in a popcorn franchise.

    steve miller (e03694)

  39. Well Mitchell is practically part of Obama’s campaign, so perhaps she knows, but Biden is just the safe bet for anyone who has no idea, and I think it’s terribly unlikely that Obama’s huge GAME CHANGER TEXT MESSAGE will be the guy everyone is expecting. It’s not MTV enough.

    What’s hilarious is that Mccain is also seeking a VP right now, yet all the coverage for the past week has been focused only on Obama. It’s like the media just doesn’t care about the Mccain campaign.

    No big deal, just same old same old. Mccain can’t recall how many houses his wife is invested in, and it’s the biggest story of the week. Obama forgets how many states there are, and it’s not a story.

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  40. My concern is that Obama will pick Sam Nunn. A former senator and Reagan Democrat, he has the gravitas (yes, I said it) to somewhat offset Obama’s cluelessness on foreign policy. He’d be good from an economic standpoint and he also hails from Georgia which could cause some older folks in Georgia and possibly Florida to give Obama another consideration. If FL went blue, how could McCain win?

    Only drawback is that he’s close to McCain’s age and that would mitigate that line of attack.

    Joel (518ae4)

  41. Juan –

    how is Palin inferior to Jindal?
    I agree she hasn’t much experience.

    — You pretty much answered yourself. Because of McCain’s age (and the possibility of only one term or a health crisis while in office) he needs someone who is experienced to be his #2. Jindal has a lot of experience already, but I think the GOP wants to groom him to be POTUS in ’12 or ’16 (and the path to POTUS usually does not run through the veep’s office). Pawlenty doesn’t have too much more experience than Palin, but as a popular Republican governor in a blue state he has a record of attracting moderate votes.

    Kay Bailey Hutchinson is too old (with McCain there you can’t have another person over 65 standing next to him) and does not possess the attack-dog qualities required of a VP candidate these days.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  42. Joel –

    Sam Nunn has been out of politics for almost 12 years, plus he’s almost as old as McCain.

    Highly unlikely.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  43. Icy, I didn’t realize that KBH was that old, though it’s obvious now that I consider it. you’re right about that one.

    I don’t think Jindal is significantly experienced, having just earned the governor’s seat and having only served in the House for a few years (not much more than Obama), but I agree that the VP would not be the best path for him.

    Juan (4cdfb7)

  44. Juan –

    Intern for U.S. Representative Jim McCrery

    Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals

    Executive director of the National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare

    President of the University of Louisiana System

    Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Planning and Evaluation

    House of Representatives – representing Louisiana’s 1st congressional district.

    Governor of Louisiana

    — Unlike Obama, Jindal is a true rising star; a man that spends his time running things, not running for things.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  45. Well said, Icy!

    Another Drew (72bbba)

  46. Every decision Hillary makes is driven by expediency. Her agenda, first and foremost, is about acquiring power for herself. Never underestimate her intelligence or utter ruthlessness. If even I can see how stupid she would be to accept a VP slot with BO, she can surely see that for herself. If he loses the election, she is set up for 2012. If he wins, he will self destruct, leaving her a good shot at POTUS in 2012.

    Bar Sinister (b50c99)

  47. Biden. He’s the almost-smart choice. (Hillary is the smart choice, but he won’t do it.)

    That said, I’d kind of like it to be Rezko, but that might be a little too much to hope for.

    Joel Rosenberg (677e59)

  48. Obama’s campaign is still about feeling. Feeling and projection.

    O’ s diehards are unconcerned that Obama signed off on grant money so that Wm. Ayers could hijack the school system, one jr. high at a time, and personally indoctrinate children into communism. Two dictators, millions of dollars, and a paper trail that leads from the university library directly to the Communist Manifesto. Which means . . .

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  49. Which means this campaign is still about feeling. The Kennedy clan supports Obama. Caroline Kennedy is of the Beltway without being part of it. She hasn’t been hogging the spotlight for 40 years and obviously has more knowledge & savvy than Obama. The Chicago machine could work with a non-Clinton DNC insider and keep Bambi in the driver’s seat. Her work with the Kennedy Center and JFK library are nice visual icons which could overpower upcoming coverage of communist ringleader/Obama co-chair William Ayers.

    Her strength within the DNC and disconnect from the Clintons is intriguing. You could ‘feel’ the Kennedy years with her standing next to Obama. And this is the campaign about feeling, not experience. Obviously a wildcard idea.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  50. #3, WLS,

    You said, “The price he pays is bringing her and Bill into his orbit — but I think his campaign can see now that they may have to pay that price if he wants to win.”

    I think you’re correct. But the last time a Democrat nominee accepted that calculus, he didn’t live to regret it. When JFK decided to replace LBJ for his second run at the White House, the price proved more than even a sitting President could pay.

    Ropelight (42c46d)

  51. Just heard on the news that Pelosi is pushing for the selection of Cong. Chet Edwards (D-Tx).
    Lets review:
    A “radical” Senator picks an obscure Congressman for his running mate – a mirror-image of 1964?

    Another Drew (72bbba)

  52. Senator Obama has given the Clinton clan — all of them, including Chelsea — significant roles during the convention. If he were now to select Hillary Clinton as his running mate, he might as well tattoo FIGUREHEAD across his forehead.

    And if such a ticket won, he’d better have his own food tasters handy.

    Dana R Pico (3e4784)

  53. I am putting my bet on Hillary. Obama may surrender to pressure and pick her. Whether that is the right choice is another matter. The only problem with that (And I hope he is reading this) is that, then the Reps. won’t need to attack him again. All they will have to do is to keep playing those clips of Hillary bashing Obama, during the primaries. Clips like “I have experience, McCain has experience and all Obama has is a speech he gave…” They will keep playing that over and over till Nov. Then McCain won’t need to do much campaigning. Just get Hillary to do it for them.
    Hey, Barack, If you are thinking of picking Hillary, don’t do it! (Is he reading this?)

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  54. Bambi knows full well who Bill Ayers is and what the Weathermen did. That’s why Bambi associates with Ayers and Dohrn. He holds them in high regard, and admires their personal dedication to Marxism-Leninism.

    To Bambi, HE, Bill Ayers and Bernadine Dohrn represent the kind of change he wants to force on us. Caveat Emptor

    Ropelight (42c46d)

  55. #54 should percolate to the appropriate post. Sorry for the error.

    Ropelight (42c46d)

  56. (Is he reading this?)

    — At least half of the regulars here didn’t read that.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  57. Icy Truth @ 10:39 am

    Heh.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  58. #56
    But you did. Thank you for joining the winning half.

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  59. re Caroline.

    I admit: I just don’t follow Michael Moore. At all. Had I known … lolz

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  60. #51 – Another Drew

    Just heard on the news that Pelosi is pushing for the selection of Cong. Chet Edwards (D-Tx).

    — Can you imagine all of those uneducated voters, the ones that only pay half-attention to politics, seeing bumper-stickers that read Obama/Edwards and thinking “Oh my God! He’s running with that guy who cheated on his sick wife”?

    Chance that Chet Edwards will be the pick: 0%

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  61. Hey, Icy.
    No one ever said the Dems were smart.

    Another Drew (72bbba)

  62. As whomever Obama picks will surely prove.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  63. #61
    They don’t need to be “smart”, they just need to win. “Smart” will come later. 😉

    love2008 (1b037c)

  64. Chet Edwards is suffering from what I might call, “The Edwards’ Curse.” It is a very rare political plague that reminds people of sick wives, cheating husbands, financial abuse, fatherless babies and hair. It has no known cure for now. (Shaking head) poor Chet…..

    love2008 (1b037c)

  65. love2008 @ 11:30 am.

    Reminds me of the Hussein curse. Poor Bambi.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  66. #65
    You know, it reminds me of the “John Curse”.
    John Kerry.
    John Edwards.
    John McCain. (OMG!)

    love2008 (1b037c)

  67. Then there’s the curse of the K’s:

    Kerry
    Kaine
    Kennedy
    Kennedy
    Kennedy
    KKK Byrd
    Klinton
    Karter

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  68. Current expression of “The ends justify the means.”

    #63, “They (Dems) don’t need to be “smart”, they just need to win.”

    The left-wing loonies just want to win, even if the cost of doing so renders their Party unable to govern. That is the insanity which motivates Bambi and his useful idiots and fellow travelers.

    Ropelight (42c46d)

  69. They don’t need to be “smart”, they just need to win. “Smart” will come later.

    — Weren’t you the one that said “Won’t it be nice to have a smart president for a change?”

    Oh, wait. That was Oiram . . . or Peter . . . or Levi . . . Dammit, Sybil!

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  70. I’m just wondering if Hillary is behind the new, or revived, interest in Obama’s birth certificate.

    Note that this is a Democrat filing the lawsuit. The rumor is that he was born in Kenya and his mother faed his birth certificate.

    This kind of stuff is fun. The PUMAs will run wild with this sort of thing.

    Mike K (f89cb3)

  71. faed means faked.

    Mike K (6d4fc3)

  72. Did his mother ever travel to Kenya? Don’t think so. Where are these rumor-mongers getting their info from — the libs on this site?

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  73. I’m not aware of her traveling there but the whole thing is coming from Democrats. That’s what’s funny. Hillary may be still on the prowl.

    Mike K (f89cb3)

  74. Mike K,

    Interesting links.

    I think litigating the validity of McCain’s birth and citizenship reminds people of his family’s military service, and that helps McCain with most Americans. However, litigating the validity of Obama’s birth and citizenship reminds people of his family’s unusual background compared to most Americans, and that doesn’t help him.

    Maybe the Clintons aren’t giving up. If Obama wins, I wonder how far they will go to discredit him in office?

    DRJ (a5243f)

  75. They won’t discredit him; they will be ‘distancing’ themselves from his disastrous (never mind that they’re almost the same as hers) policies.

    Icy Truth (48f459)

  76. (shaking my head and staring at the pc.)

    love2008 (0c8c2c)

  77. I have to stop at the store on my way home and get more popcorn…

    Scott Jacobs (a1c284)


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