Patterico's Pontifications

8/19/2008

Polls Show a Presidential Dead Heat

Filed under: 2008 Election — DRJ @ 5:40 pm



[Guest post by DRJ]

Today’s poll news:

The Gallup Daily poll of registered voters shows Obama at 45% and McCain at 44%.

In a similar result, the LA Times/Bloomberg poll of registered voters has Obama at 45% and McCain at 43% – a statistical dead heat made even more striking because Obama led by 12 points in June, although that poll now appears to be an outlier.

Respondees in the LA Times/Bloomberg poll like McCain’s experience and patriotism. They question Obama’s patriotism and 17% say the country is not ready for a black President, but they like his views on the economy and the economy is most important issue for most Americans.

However, Obama’s favorability ratings have changed for the worse while McCain’s have remained stable:

“Obama’s favorable rating has sunk to 48% from 59% since the last Times/Bloomberg poll in June. At the same time, his negative rating has risen to 35% from 27%.

By comparison, McCain’s ratings have hardly budged during the same period: 46% of voters have a positive feeling about him; 38% give him negative ratings.”

McCain has had slightly more success than Obama at rallying his base: “Nine out of 10 Republicans favor McCain, while just under 8 in 10 Democrats support Obama,” but overall Democrats are more enthusiastic about Obama than Republicans are about McCain. Finally, independents favor Obama 47% to 36%.

H/T Rick Ballard.

— DRJ

30 Responses to “Polls Show a Presidential Dead Heat”

  1. I can see the arguments now: if Obama doesn’t win it will be because of racism, not poor policy choices. If he wins, it will be a mandate for the same policies.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493)

  2. Am I the only one baffled by the Democrats’ practice for the last decade of nominating weak candidates? That does not mean that I consider the GOP to be nominating great candidates – I was not a George Bush supporter in the primary season of 2000 – but the list of Al Gore, John Kerry and soon Barack Obama hardly seems like the most electable Democrats available.

    SPQR (26be8b)

  3. #1, KM,

    You hit the (death) nail on the head. White folks who refuse to vote Bambi will be called racists, and the guys doing the name calling will do so with all the puffed-up moral outrage and phony conviction they can muster. While at the same time knowing full well they’re speaking with a forked tounge.

    Hypocrisy combined with slander and hyperbole constitute the mother’s milk of today’s Democrat Party.

    Ropelight (4a83c9)

  4. Given that those who do not suck up to academic twits and other members of an idiotic establishment have been called racists for many decades now, the smear is (finally) losing its force.

    Most people don’t give a rat’s ass.

    Brian (f79442)

  5. “Am I the only one baffled…”

    When the Dems changed their primary rules awhile ago, they put into place a byzantine system where they often field candidates who appeal to the more rabid members of the party, but conversely have little appeal to the broader base of the general public. They also fail to see the fault in their own machinations, thereby tending to blame the voters for their own dismal performances. It’s become a self – perpetuating cycle, which I believe has evolved into the type of nutbag partisans that we see daily manning the ramparts for Obama. While the other side has their share of nutbags as well, the sheer volume and numbers on the Left tends to suggest that they’ve still got the lion’s share in this regard.

    Dmac (874677)

  6. “Most people don’t give a rat’s ass.”

    …channeling JD….

    “Racist!”

    Another Drew (061d78)

  7. I think modern Democrats have chosen extremists and not just for President. Leaders like Howard Dean and Nancy Pelosi are good examples. With the exception of the Clintons and Al Gore – people the Party elite were never comfortable with – the Democratic Party has abandoned its Southern base and is dominated by blue-state celebrities, academics and the rich.

    DRJ (a5243f)

  8. In case you were wondering, Baracky is tied because of racists like you. All of you knuckle dragging mouth breathing bitter clingy sheet wearers talking in your dog whisper code word racism. You should be ashamed.

    Racists

    JD (5f0e11)

  9. The Clintons and Al Gore were an exception to the elite celebrity culture of Harry Reid? Then, obviously, if Omama picks Tim Kaine or Kathleen Sebelius, the skein of “blue state celebrities” will be intact.

    steve (36c557)

  10. JD, do I look like I’m ashamed?

    SPQR (26be8b)

  11. If there’s a Bradley Effect still in effect (and I think there is), it may be in the 12% undecided. Why would they be undecided? We’ll see what the turnout is like, and the demographics. I think if Obama goes in with no more than a 2 point lead he’ll lose in a Mondale like landslide.

    JorgXMcKie (c6778e)

  12. Chisel it in stone and bet the farm on it:

    — McCain will win

    — Between Election Day and Inauguration Day (unless they manage to tie her up and throw her in the cellar) Michelle-O will play the race card in explaining her husband’s defeat.

    Icy Truth (bec4ce)

  13. Not in the least, SPQR, you unrepentant sheet-wearer.

    JD (5f0e11)

  14. I see Mr. Levine’s post regarding Joe Biden has closed comments.

    If Biden is the choice, maybe O’s message of Hope and Change becomes more relevant.

    That is, Mr. Biden should have CHANGED some of his writings and speeches just a little bit more in order to have avoided recognition on this site:

    http://www.famousplagiarists.com/politics.htm

    PC14 (ec0516)

  15. JorgXMcKie,

    The 12% is consonant with the RCP complete set of polls to date average of 11%. In 2004 the average was 7.4%. The change is unevenly divided with the strong majority being attributable to a lower percentage of McCain supporters. McCains average support to date is 43.05 while Bush’s was 47.18 through August 20, 2004. Obama’s average support is 45.82 while Kerry’s was 45.44.

    That said, the last 10 polls in 2004 prior to election day had Bush over Kerry 49-47 so, of the 4% undecided in that period, better than 90% went to Bush. I believe there is a Bradley effect but I also believe that there is a small but measurable percentage of Republicans who have not as yet climbed aboard Mac’s wagon.

    At this point I’m just pleased with the trend from June to August which the LAT poll highlights. Long may it continue.

    Rick Ballard (0a8990)

  16. Whether you support Obama or not I find it amazing that after 8 years of one of the most disastrous administrations in recent American history people would still be considering more of the same.

    Not to quote Obama’s campaign but it is time for a change.

    John (69e4d6)

  17. “one of the most disastrous”

    Ah ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

    You can get good money for your brain, seeing how it’s not been used much lately.

    steve miller (b589d7)

  18. But….But… Mr. Miller! It HAS to be historically disastrous! I didn’t get my way!

    Foxfier (15ac79)

  19. I love the fact that #16 is so vague that it seems to be a warning that an Obama administration would be ‘more of the same’ of the supposedly ‘disastrous’ Bush Administration.

    Apogee (366e8b)

  20. Comment by John — 8/19/2008 @ 11:06 pm

    John, that is an interesting post you added there. How was BHO able to safely visit Iraq on his recent star tour? Through the success of the surge. McCain supported it, Obama has yet to acknowledge it. To do so would be embarrassing.

    Vermont Neighbor (a066ed)

  21. This meme, John, that McCain is the same as Bush, it is odd. It is also dishonest, and ignores all of the fundamental ways that they most certainly are not the same. But, feel free to keep on pushing that meme. Hint – call him McSame, it puts a little exclamation on your point. Use ALL CAPS too.

    JD (75f5c3)

  22. #16 I’m imagining the sense of triumph, the metaphorical spike of the football in the end zone after pressing “Submit Comment”, and then looking at that brilliant, original contribution and thinking “wow I nailed that one!”

    Jack Klompus (b796b4)

  23. #16
    Yes, it is time for change! Let’s give the dems more power to feck up our lives. Higher taxes will surely make the economy hum on all cylinders. Running away from terrorist and just giving peace a chance will convince Islamofacists to leave America alone. Dismantling our nuclear missiles will mollify Putin. Kissing ImADamnNutJob’s ass will make Iran love us.
    We need to be more like the Eurotards and Canadians with socialized healthcare and a nanny state. It is not right that the cheese eating surrender monkeys care more about saving the planet than us and therefore our gasoline prices should be more in line with France. Ten bucks a gallon will be a godsend and provide Obama with the necessary tax revenues to help the poor and punish those evil Oil companies. And hopefully a world court will also get the green light to try, convict and execute Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld for treason and crimes against humanity. The world would love us more if we show that nefarious trio of reprobates hanging from lamp posts in D.C.
    Change! Hope! O inspired tumescence for the media!

    madmax333 (0c6cfc)

  24. As most of you probably saw on Drudge, McCain is up by 5% on Obama in Reuters/Zogby poll. I would encourage everyone to read the

    While he still “clings” to 90% of the black vote, Obama is dropping among Liberals who feel betrayed by his move to the center. That also includes a drop in the youth vote.

    There is another essential group without which democrats cannot win the White House – Jews. Although he still has a majority of Jews (57%) it’s not enough to tip the balance in Florida and Pennsylvania. The pro-Israel population here are very nervous about the situation in the Middle East and especially in Iran.

    The center is also breaking for McCain. His performance at Saddleback was head and shoulders above Obama’s. John’s grasp of the issues and his policy positions were much stronger than Barack’s, revealing knowledge and experience far beyond Obama’s.

    Hopefully, the grown ups are taking control.detailsdetails

    arch (b51634)

  25. I meant to say “everyone to read the details”

    arch (b51634)

  26. #16 “but it is time for a change.”

    You may be right, but you and BO fail to realize that Americans don’t necessarily want change for changes sake; they would like something better than a non-repentant terrorist loving, shady back-door Chicago politician who seems to love himself more than his country.

    I’m not naming any names you understand, but you can probably figure that one out.

    Lord Nazh (899dce)

  27. Looke! Up in the sky! It’s a bird! It’s a plane.

    No, it’s a flock of chickens, and they’re headed for Chicago.

    Ropelight (4a83c9)

  28. Guys, guys, you get a completely different picture when you look at polls state by state.

    You guys are conveniently putting your hopes on a national poll (1000 people per day across the country).

    Sorry, but if McCain doesn’t pull the national poll up to about 10 points in his favor, you could be looking at a landslide.

    Oiram (983921)

  29. A poll is useful, but no predictor of actual results. As we know, exit polls are far more accurate than actual votes.

    If polls show Bambi ahead, they’re wonderful! If polls show Bambi behind, then they’re to be discounted.

    How lovely to live in such a world.

    steve miller (b589d7)

  30. The timing of these latest polls couldn’t be worse for Obama. This will make the racism charges against those that don’t take the kool-aid that much more shrill, which will further drive away the middle.

    This is what happens when a party chooses a candidate because he is not something instead of what he is (Kerry wasn’t Dean, Obama isn’t Clinton).

    Bel Aire (2fd7f7)


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