[Posted by WLS]
I know I’ve posted somewhere here about Obama’s heretofore overlooked declining fundraising numbers. I’m certain there are lots of explanations and rationalizations about why such has been the case, but the hard facts are that Obama’s monthly fundraising numbers popped just before and just after Iowa, peaking with a tremendous month in February, but they declined every month since — precipitously in May. Here they are:
January — $32 million
February — $55 million
March — $40 million
April — $31 million
May — $22 million.
I pointed out in an earlier post that what gets lost or overlooked in examining this decline is the fact that Obama defeated Clinton in the Iowa primary on January 5 – and his fundraising exploded in Jan. and Feb. as a result. But Rev. Wright first pops up on ABC on March 13, leading to Obama’s Philadelphia speed on race on March 18. That might have quelled the storm, but the Rev. reappears at the National Press Club on April 28.
Now track Obama’s fund raising numbers against those dates — at some point in April they must have gone in the tank.
Over at the next right.com, they’ve spotted another very interesting marker when it comes to Obama’s fundraising and his reporting thereof.
Obama’s campaign reported his impressive January total of $25 on Feb. 4 — one day before Super Tuesday. Just a little shot of adreneline for the shock troops heading off to the polls.
His unbelievable February total of $55 million — unprecedented in fundraising history — was reported on March 6, two days after he lost both Texas and Ohio to Hillary, and was in need of changing the topic on the campaign trail.
His March total of $40 million was announced on April 3 — just about the quickest his campaign has ever reported its numbers.
His April total of $31 million — disappointing by the standards which he had been setting — was held back by his campaign until May 20, which also happened to be the day of the Oregon and Kentucky primaries, so there was other news to cover.
His paltry May total of $21 million — he was actually outraised by McCain — was held back until June 20, the first time the campaign reported on a Friday.
Well, today is July 11, and Obama’s campaign has yet to release his June totals. Given his problems over the last couple weeks with policy reversals, if the numbers were so good they would provide a distraction or an opportunity to change the subject, I suspect they would have been out already.
I read an interesting observation from a commenter on another site about the potential for misunderstanding the ability and willingness of small dollar donors to make repeated contributions — it may just be that the small dollar contribution they have already made represents all they are willing/able to give. In other words, simply because someone gave him $200 back in January doesn’t mean that person is likely to give $200 again in July and $200 again in October — even if you don’t consider whether that person might have been discouraged by Obama’s recent policy reversals. The fact that the person is eligible to contribute more by virtue of the fact they haven’t reached the contribution limitation established by law doesn’t mean they will be able to make a further contribution when signaled to do so.
To the extent that Obama’s campaign has banked on its ability to draw more small dollar contributions from an army of small dollar contributors, it may have badly miscalculated.