Newsweek Poll Revisited: What Happened To The Barack Bounce Back?
[Posted by WLS]
Travel back in time with me to June 20, 2008, following the concession by Hillary Clinton and the coronation of Barack Obama as the Democrat nominee and Presidential Man in Waiting:
Consider the words of Michael Hirsh at Newsweek:
Barack finally has his bounce. For weeks many political experts and pollsters have been wondering why the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain had stayed so tight, even after the Illinois senator wrested the nomination from Hillary Clinton. With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country’s direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.
Ah, but bouncing on the knee of the electorate can be such a fickle thing:
Newsweek for July 10: Obama 44, McCain 41.
Update: I almost forgot: McCain leads with independents, 41-34.
— WLS
Flip-flops will do that.
Paul (ae2fbe) — 7/11/2008 @ 7:51 pmThe Flip-Flop-Back-Bounce.
I think some Poli Sci student should write a paper on it.
WLS (68fd1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 7:56 pmI agree, WLS. That has graduate thesis written all over it.
Paul (ae2fbe) — 7/11/2008 @ 7:57 pmOnce again, the Democrats will choose the weakest general election candidate from their field.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:15 pmThis is one poll.
Also, the flip-flops you morons have been talking about are totally imaginary. He really did flip on the issue of FISA, which is a significant betrayal of the liberals in this country that have gotten him this far, and I’m hoping that that is why his numbers have gone down in this poll, but all the rest of it, about abortions and Iraq and campaign financing is made-up, semantic, trivial bullshit.
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:37 pmLevi — and that’s why the very friendly press has made such an issue of his fudging on those other issues.
What would you call his decision to abandon the campaign finance pledge THAT HE INITIATED if not a flip-flop?
WLS (68fd1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:39 pmNotice how Levi can’t even keep his story straight for two sentences in a row. And he calls us morons? Projection, its a horrible disease, Levi.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:41 pmI don’t understand this.
I’ll call it a flip-flop if that makes you happy WLS. But yeah, I don’t give a shit about that. Could there be anything more meaningless?
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:42 pm“Also, the flip-flops you morons have been talking about are totally imaginary.”
Keep telling yourself that if it makes yourself feel better, boy genius. Nobody else is buying it.
daleyrocks (d9ec17) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:48 pmYou might not give a shit about it, and frankly as a campaign issue, neither do I.
But it followed after the matters involving Rev. Wright and Father Fleger, and it gave a solid foundation to the idea that Obama maybe wasn’t the committed idealist that he had sold himself to be in January and February.
Just because you and I don’t particular care much one way or the other on that particular issue, it set the table for his later obfuscations and outright flip-flops to further harden the image that he’s not quite the Obamamesiah the Kool-Aid drinkers had been hoping for.
WLS (68fd1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:50 pmObama’s still leading in all the polls, isn’t he?
Somebody’s buying it. And there’s more of them than there are of you.
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 8:52 pmBut he’s trailing the generic Congressional preference numbers by anywhere from 5 to 10%.
Where the incumbent President from the opposing party has an approval rating of 30%.
Obama should be up by 10-12 points at least — not bouncing around up 3-4% in most polls.
As Dean Barnett has described it — this election is Obama v. Not Obama, and Not Obama had a pretty good week.
WLS (68fd1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:00 pmObama’s still leading in all the polls, isn’t he?
For now.
Somebody’s buying it. And there’s more of them than there are of you.
There’s a sucker born every minute.
Paul (ae2fbe) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:01 pmThe church stuff is imaginary too, pal.
And I mean really now, how can you be trying to hang that Fleger guy on Obama?
Obama has totally lost me over the FISA issue. Which is a real thing, happening in our government, that he had a chance to affect, that will have serious repercussions. It was an issue he promised to fight for, and on which he totally betrayed me and many millions of his adamant, vocal supporters. He has totally reversed himself in an incredibly pathetic and needless way that has in one fell swoop eviscerated all of the credibility he had built up with me over his year and a half long campaign.
That is what is worth criticizing him for. You people can think you’ve been right about him all along, but you haven’t been, and still aren’t. I know what matters, and actual votes on actual, monumentally important issues that speak to the foundational principles of our country are what matters, not preachers and flag pins and endlessly parsing words and which campaign financing option you opt for.
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:06 pmWhat the hell is that? Am I supposed to know what that is?
When you’re a grandpa, Bush is going to be the Great American Villain. Mark my words.
Whatever.
Another whatever.
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:10 pmI know what matters, and actual votes on actual, monumentally important issues that speak to the foundational principles of our country are what matters, not preachers and flag pins and endlessly parsing words and which campaign financing option you opt for.
The campaign financing option Obama chose might come back to bite him in the ass, if the link DRJ found is accurate.
Paul (ae2fbe) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:12 pmLevi – I think the Petranos could teach you a thing or two. Their analysis is more cogent than yours.
daleyrocks (d9ec17) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:13 pmOnly for those who don’t care about character. Or the obvious lack thereof.
And how many votes has Obama actually made on these issues (as opposed to merely voting “present” or claiming credit for supporting a bill he actually voted against)? Or voting to support a program that seriously failed in its execution?
Give us a list of Obama’s actual accomplishments you say matters so much…
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:13 pmWhat the hell is that? Am I supposed to know what that is?
Not as smart as you think you are!
When you’re a grandpa, Bush is going to be the Great American Villain. Mark my words.
This from a guy who doesn’t read something to know its contents.
Whatever.
Another whatever.
Admit it to yourself: Obama’s got problems.
Paul (ae2fbe) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:15 pmOoooooo, daleyrocks, that’s gonna sting.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:20 pmI care about character. I don’t think whether or not you go to church, and who you happen to hear or not hear, speaks to someone’s character.
At least he didn’t cheat on his wife, right? At least he hasn’t spent his entire life as an alcoholic failure, right?
I don’t think you understand what I’m talking about at all. Obama has voted well in general in the Senate, I mean isn’t one of the things that you people throw at him all the time is that he’s the most liberal Senator in the Senate?
Anyway, I’m condemning Obama for his vote on the FISA issue, which was the one I was saying matters so much. Did you not understand that? He lost my vote over this bullshit. When you quote me, you might try not cherry-picking sentences (or in this case, half-sentences) so the full context might become clearer to you. It’s worth a shot, as frequently as you totally misinterpret what I say.
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:23 pmApparently not.
Color.
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:26 pmMe.
Shocked.
So, what did you think about Obama’s FISA vote, Levi?
Also, I’ve got to tell you that you’ve got some kind of balls to bring Wright up after abandoning your debate with DRJ in it’s infancy.
Pablo (99243e) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:27 pmThen your job of showing the “important issues” that he has voted on should be easy, right?
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:28 pmWhat does Teddy Kennedy have to do with this discussion?
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:30 pmWhen you quote me, you might try not cherry-picking sentences (or in this case, half-sentences) so the full context might become clearer to you. It’s worth a shot, as frequently as you totally misinterpret what I say.
How about this: try writing what you actually mean clearly (as in honest debate, like the one with DRJ you abandoned.)
Paul (ae2fbe) — 7/11/2008 @ 9:52 pmFinally addressing the issue in the thread, isn’t this what is known as a “dead cat bounce”? Even a block of cement will bounce if dropped from a high enough altitude-above-ground.
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/11/2008 @ 10:07 pmBarack was never ahead by 14 points. We all know that, the first Newsweek poll was just wrong. And now why is this second poll so far in the other direction? Gee, do you think that it could be because it is wrong too? Patterico is too smart to think that one poll is meaningful, but I guess he just couldn’t help himself here. We are all susceptible to seizing on flimsy evidence that supports what we think is true.
Counterfactual (d55b15) — 7/11/2008 @ 10:11 pmPatterico didn’t write this post, c-factual.
DRJ (cfa65f) — 7/11/2008 @ 10:13 pmThis is one poll.
No.
Gallup and Rasmussen have both had him ranging from 2-6% for a while now.
Now, in fairness, he never went that high on either of them to begin with, but for a while his lead had been at 5-6% for both polls whereas it’s been showing a 2-3% more often now. (BTW, unlike Newsweek, these have much larger samples and Rasmussen polls likely voters, not just registered.)
Anon (439b9a) — 7/11/2008 @ 10:59 pmAnd now why is this second poll so far in the other direction? Gee, do you think that it could be because it is wrong too?
No, because it’s much more in line with other polls – though, when it comes to polls, Newsweek isn’t a very good barometer.
Anon (439b9a) — 7/11/2008 @ 11:01 pmOkay, one last one
But he’s trailing the generic Congressional preference numbers by anywhere from 5 to 10%.
What the hell is that? Am I supposed to know what that is?
–
Really, if you know what the hell you’re talking about, you ought to.
Anon (439b9a) — 7/11/2008 @ 11:20 pmToast, he is. BO, I mean. He should be up by double digits at this point. Kerry was. Gore was. Clinton, maybe not, but it was a three-way in 92. Think he was in summer ’96 though. Jesus, Dukakis was up by 18 in the summer of ’88. This guy could lose 40 states.
McCain is closing the fundraising gap, decidedly. I’m not a McCain sycophant by any means. Hillary would win this thing in a walk. Too bad, Levi. Maybe in 2012.
Chris (b6ebef) — 7/11/2008 @ 11:23 pmStupid Newsweek, they forgot to over sample Democrats.
Perfect Sense (23c691) — 7/12/2008 @ 1:25 amLevi:
You might want to look at PUMA for the answer to Obama’s lack of bounce. A bounce generally occurs after the party has ended a primary campaign and the candidates come together. Many of Hillary’s supporters are not willing to support Obama or to contribute to his campaign.
Independents, many of whom do care about honesty and character, favor McCain. They recognize Barack as a Daley machine politician who lacks the experience, integrity and leadership necessary to be President of the United States.
His positions on taxes, energy, gun rights, abortion, foreign relations, the military and the economy are far left of the electorate.
There is another poll problem when it comes to black candidates. Some voters will say they support Obama, but when they step into the voting booth, they don’t vote as as they said they would.
Barack Hussein Obama is in serious trouble because the more people see him, the less they like him.
arch (1c43c1) — 7/12/2008 @ 5:44 amIf McCain wins in a blowout, I am going to be laughing for a long time just thinking about it.
I have friends, an ex-friend (that’s another story) and family members who are so caught up in Obamamania, that when combined with their BDS affliction, results in a breakdown of their thinking processes. They “feel” the Obamalove. They bask in the glow of the rock star. They get a “tingle running up their leg”. Straight guys entertain thoughts of homoerotic encounters. The women get…forget the women, they’re as ridiculous as the women who fawned all over Herr Shickelgruber
Pathetic
But, if as Robert Redford opined the other day that if the Obamessiah loses and this results in the end of the Democratic Party, then my laughter will turn to out right jubilation.
Of course, an implosion by the Republicans would be a good things as well.
A pox on both their houses
Horatio (55069c) — 7/12/2008 @ 5:51 amLevi will not vote for Baracky. You heard it here first.
JD Esq. (5f0e11) — 7/12/2008 @ 6:14 am“I know what’s important”….well, so does everyone, I suppose…if you remove the unwarranted and unseemley arrogance and add “to me”.
1)Character: By now it should be clear to nearly every person with at least two firing synapses…that Wright and Pfleger are extremists who pander to a rather divisive, ugly, class warfare/race baiting type of sermonizing…which is based upon half-truths and outright lies.
They stir up anger and bile over falsehoods and lead people down a path of darkness. Their “cover” for doing this on the South Side of Chicago is not much different from other thugs…Al Capone and Columbian drug lords would “buy the people’s love” with “projects for the community”…which bought them a conspiracy of silence while they perpetrated their bad acts.
Becoming an associate of racial hate mongerers and outright class warfare liars for two decades…matters. Sen. Obama didn’t pass by this cesspool on the way to somewhere else…he chose to swim in it for 20 years.
2)I’m old enough to have lived through the Jimmy Carter years. (I’ll be the speed limit in a couple of weeks). I have ZERO interest in going back to 25% interest.
Jimmy Carter was a dismal failure on so many levels and he and his family had been (and may still be) in the pockets of so many Arabian sultans, his views on the Mideast have been bought and paid for….and his attitude toward Israel is best summed up by the words of his idiot brother…who didn’t have quite the same skills at duplicity as the bunny fearing coward.
Sen. Obama’s campaign stinks of a Jimmy Carter redux. And the attitude toward Israel is not far beneath the surface with such nefarious creatures as Robert Malley, Tony McPeak, Brzezinski, Rashid Khalidi, Ali Abunimah, Farrakhan worshipping staffers, Samantha Power, …lurking around the campaign and its foreign policy committees.
3)The deadwood media has done a fine job of treason for the past 40 years when it comes to our military. But one of their most successful ventures was to sell their outright lies about Iraq to a gullible segment of our populace.
Only a fool would suggest at this point that the surge and Gen. Petraeus’ efforts have not been achieving results and making tremendous strides in Iraq.
Only a fool would suggest that we have not won hearts and minds about Al Qaeda…and have them on the run in the Middle East.
Only a fool would suggest that Saddam Hussein was not a threat to work in concert with global terrorists to export mayhem and state sponsor it at multiple levels.
Only a fool would suggest that they KNEW Saddam Hussein was not harboring and had not intention of building capacity for weapons of mass destruction.
Only a fool would suggest that state-sponsored terrorism was not a threat to world security…and especially Western safety and security…and most especially…American safety and security.
Only a fool would suggest that we should begin walking away now from Iraq, taking out two brigades at a time…or that our military should be weakened to a level not seen since Carter nearly destroyed it.
I know what is important (to me) as well.
A media that is not treasonous, that doesn’t place an agenda ahead of the truth and isn’t pushing for European Socialism via distortions, faked photographs, forged documents and outright lies.
A leader who doesn’t pander to racism and class warfare…and certainly not one who embraces that mindset for two decades.
Loyalty, honor, integrity, courage. A leader who can stare down the extremists and not pander to them.
Leftists are like the date who wants to “change you” for “your own good” after one date. America is a wonderful place and if they want a different place to live…in Socialist utopia…please, feel free to move there. Don’t lie your way into power here. Tell people the truth and let the chips fall where they may.
Right now…leftism is not out in the open on what they are up to, and the big lie is selling.
If it succeeds, we all will pay…for decades to come. I’m old enough to have lived through it before, …I know what’s important too…for me.
cfbleachers (4040c7) — 7/12/2008 @ 6:44 amFWIW- RIP Tony Snow who died of colon cancer. The epitome of class and competency when compared to such riff raff as Scott McClellan. I’m sure the fever swamp is delighted.
One of the Corner regulars thinks America needs Obama to show people how ugly today’s liberalism really is. How many people from late seventies are even alive now and how many born since asshat Carter had his worst Presidency of all time (Yes, I know Bush must be the worst according to moonbats). I imagine Dubya won’t even be like his dad as far as in public spotlight and certainly not gallivanting around the world denigrating his successor or America like senile Jimmuh or satyr Clinton. I’m always hearing how Obama as Prez will improve our world standing with everyone else and how awful Bush has been. With all his flaws, I’d like to see what Bush polled in places like Eastern Europe, Afghanistan and Iraq. I guess it was nice at least that we escaped a POTUS of Gore or Lurch. Btw, some talk of Chris Dodd as Veep. Both Urkel and Dodd are might cozy with people handing out questionable financing perks to them.. a different brand of politics indeed.
madmax333 (6ad717) — 7/12/2008 @ 7:14 amI’m sorry to hear about Tony Snow. He was a decent man.
steve miller (724340) — 7/12/2008 @ 8:34 amTony Snow was a good man. That is horrible news.
Cue the loonwaffle cheering …
JD Esq. (5f0e11) — 7/12/2008 @ 9:17 amMore lefty hatred on political opponents, even though Tony was an unfailingly good-natured guy, and very honest.
(Funny how no one took Pat up on his Jesse Helms’ challenge. Is he planning on repeating it in re TS?)
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/12/2008 @ 9:33 amI put up a post about Tony.
In it, I explain that anyone who criticizes him on this blog today will be banned.
People are going to learn about choosing the right time and place, or I’ll teach them.
Patterico (cb443b) — 7/12/2008 @ 9:48 amBack to Obama’s dead cat bounce, I am reminded of an apocryphal story I heard – seems this dingbat went parachuting without packing his chute correctly.
He jumps, yanks the primary – fail.
Yanks the secondary – FAIL.
Hits the ground so hard he bounced – TWICE – and lived.
That guy deserves to be President more than Obama.
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/12/2008 @ 9:58 amJD, Charles Johnson has some links to some disgusting behavior, including Associated Press.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/12/2008 @ 9:59 amAll of that is bullshit.
Levi (74ca1f) — 7/12/2008 @ 10:13 amSuch an insightful analysis.
I mean, the logic is unassailable, the facts are indisputable, and the rhetoric biting and witty.
Oh, wait, no it’s not. Just the typical ad hominem…
Drumwaster (5ccf59) — 7/12/2008 @ 10:19 amTypical of Levi’s ignorant, substance-free drivel.
SPQR (26be8b) — 7/12/2008 @ 10:20 am“His positions on taxes, energy, gun rights, abortion, foreign relations, the military and the economy are far left of the electorate.”
That would depend upon which week you are talking about, wouldn’t it?
daleyrocks (d9ec17) — 7/12/2008 @ 10:26 am