Updated 5/14: Something to Consider Re West Virginia Dimocrit Primary Results
Posted by WLS:
Update 5/14: Final raw vote tallies:
Clinton 2008 — 238,939
Obama 2008 — 91,613
Kerry 2004 — 175,065
Which brings me back to my question yesterday — if Obamania is so irresistable, why was he able to tally only 52% of the vote total that Kerry tallied in 2004?
The 2004 primary was meaningless to the nomination of Kerry, just as the press has said the 2008 primary was meaningless to the nomination of Obama.
Kerry was as liberal as Obama, and with his haughty boarding school upbringing and elitist Brahmin-esque manner, should have been stepped on by Edwards in the same manner Clinton stepped on Obama yesterday.
Yet Kerry was able to rally the party to him on his way to getting 175,065 votes in the primary, on the way to getting 326,541 votes in the general.
That was an increase of 151,476 votes.
For Obama to equal Kerry’s raw vote in W.Va. in the general election, he’s going to have to find 234,928 more votes than he did yesterday — a quarter million more W.Virginians will have to pull the lever for Obama in Nov. than were willing to do so yesterday.
Assuming McCain runs within 10% of Bush’s raw vote total in 2004 — giving McCain 381,400 votes in Nov. — Obama would need to find 289,787 more votes than he tallied yesterday to win W.Va.
If McCain performs even with Bush’s 2004 totals, Obama needs to find 332,165 more votes than he got yesterday.
I’ll have a post up later that compares Obama’s raw vote totals in key battleground states in the rust belt against Kerry’s raw vote totals in primaries of those same states.
——————
The polls will be closing in WVa in two hours. Within a couple hours after that we will know the raw vote totals for Obama and Clinton.
Everyone is predicting a Clinton blowout victory, and it will not be a surprise if she wins by 25 points.
What I want to see, however, is the raw vote total for Obama. As the Clinton campaign surrogates have pointed out, Obama is the front-runner and the press has annointed him the presumptive nominee. If the party is going to rally around him, there should be some evidence of that now, and there is no good explanation for why it would not be seen to be happening in WVa. That was supposedly the message from his blowout win in NC last week, and he very narrow loss in Indiana.
He has outspent Clinton on paid advertising in WVa, he has more offices and more paid campaign staff in the state, and he has the endorsements of the two most prominent elected Democrats — and I’m not considering Sen. Byrd due to his poor health.
So, why are the Dems of WVa not getting behind him?
In 2004, the presumptive nominee of the Dem. party came to WVa and garnered 175,065 votes, or 69.25%, with his nearest challenger garnering only 33,950.
The Dem race for the nomination was over by May 11, 2004, the date of the 2004 primary, but the Dem race this year is pretty much over — none of the punditocracy sees a straightforward way for Clinton to win.
Yet in 2004, 175,000 faithful Dem voters still turned out and voted for the ultra-liberal elitist junior Senator from Massachusetts.
If Obama is the historic transitional political figure the press and the leftwing have claimed him to be, why would he not be able to generate the same raw vote totals of a rather dull, unexciting, French-looking New Englander who had wrapped up the nomination in 2004 a full two months before the WVa primary?
If Obama can’t get the same 175,000 votes in WVa. that Kerry did, why not? Even if Clinton beats him, why would his vote total be less than Kerry’s? These are registered DEM voters — they should be predisposed to the presumptive nominee of their party who is proclaimed as a gift from the gods of politics.
Why are they voting for someone who has no chance of being their nominee? Why didn’t those same voters pull the lever for John Edwards in 2004?
dimocrit
wls, are you even old enough to vote?
assistant devil's advocate (8ee4c8) — 5/13/2008 @ 3:31 pmOut on a limb:
The difference in the vote between Obama and Hillary in the West, “by God”, Virginia primary, will be close to the difference between Obama and McCain, respectively, in the November general election.
Is it race? No. Colin Powell could be running for president as a Democrat and easily beat McCain. No, Obama is being perceived as being way too far left, too inexperienced and not quite “American” enough.
Obama is a product of Oprah, liberal academic intellectuals (such as they are), and the (sigh) MSM. As such, Obama’s support is like Al Qaeda, that is, it is “stateless”. There is no “America” in Barak Obama’s candidacy or his support. That’s what WV Dems will be voting about and not color.
C. Norris (8cbd3d) — 5/13/2008 @ 3:47 pmADA — every year since Reagan was elected POTUS.
Do you think “dim hypocrits” is an inaccurate portrayal?
WLS (68fd1f) — 5/13/2008 @ 3:54 pmI think Michelle Malkin copyrighted “Dhimmicrats,” so we don’t want to use that lest Patterico have to pay her a fee.
WLS, that is an excellent observation about the relative threshold for Obama. What if regular rank-and-file Dimocrits, Dhimmicrats, Dems aren’t falling in line behind the media’s anointing of Obama as the nominee? I guess the lead in tomorrow’s AP account of this will be something like,
JVW (c86819) — 5/13/2008 @ 4:11 pmyes wls, i think it’s an inaccurate portrayal. i am a democrat. i also think it’s childish, same as i regard the various takes on “republican”.
assistant devil's advocate (8ee4c8) — 5/13/2008 @ 4:19 pmADA:
Noted.
WLS (68fd1f) — 5/13/2008 @ 4:30 pmBecause West Virginians are good solid hard working downhome folk who don’t have much use for a wet-behind-the-ears arrogant pr*ck with no policy, nothing to offer but hopey-changey rhetoric. And they know he has little use for them either. And as was just pointed out on a TV piece, it isn’t all about race since W.VA went for Wilder over his white opponent many years ago.
Sara (3337ed) — 5/13/2008 @ 4:59 pmThe majority of Obama’s primary wins came before the public had heard him defend his friendship with a domestic bomber, before Rev. Wright, before they knew of his ties to Rezko, before they heard him say he can talk terrorists and extremist out of wanting to destroy America, before his “bitter” remarks, etc. How many would vote the same way today?
You can not win the White House with 90% of the AA vote and half the 18-25 year olds.
A friend of mine with two kids in college who are big Obama supporters said to me the other day, “let them have their fun, I’ll talk some sense into them when they get home for Summer vacation.” I wonder how many other parents are planning on doing the same thing?
Sara (3337ed) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:09 pmjust as some states were and are still voting against Mccain and are still voting for Huckabee and Ron Paul in some states. presently Mccain is still having problem courting the conservatives’ votes. Up to 30% voted against Mccain in the last primaries in indiana and NC even after Huckabee has withdrawn from the race. If Mccain is the so called “gift from the gods” for the republicans, why are members of his party still voting against him?
love2008 (d2a57f) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:21 pmBecause he isn’t a conservative. He’s a maverick, and proud of it.
DRJ (5f6016) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:26 pmSo we agree that Obama is not the only person have a problem winning over sections of his party. So they are even.
love2008 (d2a57f) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:32 pmRight now Obama has 8,387 votes with 3% reporting. Using a very back of the envelope calculation that’ll gives him about 280 thousand votes in total, more than the 175 thousand Kerry got.
Polybius (759394) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:50 pmlove2008,
I guess we’ll see how even they are in November.
DRJ (5f6016) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:51 pmOne big apparent difference is the media carries water for Obamamessiah. Indeed they figuratively fellate him. I guess it is swell that the media isn’t racist and doesn’t try to keep the black man down. I think many in the left are sympathetic to Wright, Ayers, Dorhn, Rezko, Calypso Louie Farrakhan, reparations, affirmative action, kissing Islamomutant butts because they are American- hating scumwads. If Lurch actually gained 15% from support of media, how much does it add to Barack Hussein’s totals?
madmax333 (d95aa0) — 5/13/2008 @ 5:53 pmYou’ll note that there are charges of racism against obambi instigated by Hill’s fans. Since I am a typical bitter cracker mofo, I cannot help myself and must vote against the great black Hope. He ain’t no Keyes, JC Watts, Steele, Powell, Rice, Barbara Jordan. Hell, even Jesse Jackson is better qualified.
Right now Obama has 8,387 votes with 3% reporting. Using a very back of the envelope calculation that’ll gives him about 280 thousand votes in total, more than the 175 thousand Kerry got.
With 10% of the vote, he has 13,616, so he won’t reach the 175,000 at this rate.
Sara (3337ed) — 5/13/2008 @ 6:04 pmSara — are you talking about Doug Wilder?????
Because he was elected the Gov. of Virginia, not W.Va.
WLS (68fd1f) — 5/13/2008 @ 6:27 pmLove2008:
Its not unusual for the party’s nominee to get 65-75% of the vote even after the nomination is settled. Same thing happened with Bush v. McCain in 2000, and Gore v. Bradley in 2000.
Gore 64 – 33 in Missouri
Gore 67 – 28 in Maryland
Gore 73 – 24 in Ohio
Gore 65 – 33 in New York
Gore 68 – 25 in Oklahoma
All those were after the contest was settled with Gore beating Bradley in both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Bush 61 – 35 in California
Bush 67 – 28 in Georgia
Bush 56 – 36 in Maryland
Bush 58 – 35 in Missouri
Bush 57 – 38 in Ohio
All those came after Bush had secured the nomination in 2000.
But here the Dem nominee is having 65% or more of the state’s registered democrats vote against him. 2 out of 3 Dem voters want someone besides him as the nominee. This is a REJECTION of the nominee.
WLS (68fd1f) — 5/13/2008 @ 6:36 pmWith 1/4 of the precincts reporting, Obama has about 28,000 votes.
Projecting this out, he’ll come up about 60,000 votes short of the raw number of votes received by Kerry four years ago.
WLS (68fd1f) — 5/13/2008 @ 6:39 pmAnd as was just pointed out on a TV piece, it isn’t all about race since W.VA went for Wilder over his white opponent many years ago.
I’m dying to know what TV you were watching.
steve (e2c86f) — 5/13/2008 @ 6:55 pm“If the party is going to rally around him, there should be some evidence of that now, and there is no good explanation for why it would not be seen to be happening in WVa.”
People keep telling me WV is represented by a racist senator. Could it they be right?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/12/AR2008051203014.html
stef (e66d8d) — 5/13/2008 @ 7:41 pmWLS/1,3,5,6:
I’m with ADA on this, and I’m a Republican. It’s irritating and less than useful to name-call.
–JRM
JRM (355c21) — 5/13/2008 @ 7:45 pmI don’t know, JRM. I vote in the Democratic primaries, because in Cook County Illinois that’s where the action is, and mostly Republican in November. I consider myself a Dhimmicrat — I am a subject of The Machine.
nk (397bef) — 5/13/2008 @ 7:51 pm“Why are they voting for someone who has no chance of being their nominee? ”
Its funny, on another post here, saying this sort of thing — that the win in WV doesn’t matter for Clinton — is framed as “media loves obama.” Me? I think the people voting for Hillary think this will help her get the nomination.
stef (57aa5a) — 5/13/2008 @ 8:01 pmWith 77% of the vote reported:
Obama – 74,687 – 26% – 7 delegates
Clinton – 188,776 – 67% – 16 delegates
Thus, there’s already more than 250,000 Democratic votes and it look like Obama won’t even get a third of them.
DRJ (5f6016) — 5/13/2008 @ 8:36 pmFrom a post today by Moron pundit that’s fairly apposite (slighty edited by me to meet Patterico guidelines):
Update: Looks like she’s going to take West Virginia today by a ridiculous, ass-stomping margin. Doesn’t (expletive deleted) matter. At all. This is a state that still elects Robert “I’m a (expletive deleted) Klansman” Byrd to the senate even though he’s well past his expiration date.
Also, unlike Pennsylvania or Ohio or Florida or Michigan, this state is completely unimportant in the general election. It is going to McCain. Period.
I’ll put the link in another comment in an attempt to avoid the spamfilter monster.
CNN, as part of its talkathon tonight, mentioned that WVa went for Bush the last two times, but for Clinton both times Wm. J. ran. So this may simply be brand loyalty.
kishnevi (162496) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:00 pmMoron Pundit link
May the filter gods be gracious unto us…
kishnevi (162496) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:02 pmDRJ, it didn’t go through. Can you please pull it out of limbo? Pretty please with spaghetti on top?
[Done, especially since you asked so nicely. It’s now #26. — DRJ]
kishnevi (162496) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:03 pmIt looks like Obama will be lucky to break 100,000. And W. VA matters about as much as N.C. They’ll both end up going Republican as will several of Obama’s other states.
Sara (3337ed) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:16 pmLet’s take a look at these quotes….
“Obama is a product of [[Oprah, liberal academic intellectuals (such as they are), and]] the (sigh) MSM.”
“The majority of Obama’s primary wins came before the public had heard him defend his friendship with a domestic bomber, before Rev. Wright, before they knew of his ties to Rezko, before they heard him say he can talk terrorists and extremist out of wanting to destroy America, before his “bitter” remarks, etc. How many would vote the same way today? ”
“One big apparent difference is the media carries water for Obamamessiah.”
Haw haw haw, ok it’s thread hijacking but yall’s MSM love Obama obsession is just so full of crap.
EdWood (588a2e) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:21 pmMcCain’s biggest selling point for conservatives: the Clintonites and O-ites locked into mortal combat for the party. Oh, it’s on.
Sweetie (ca63cb) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:38 pmExcept for THIS newspaper, you are all 1000% correct about this newspaper… horribly horribly correct……
EdWood (588a2e) — 5/13/2008 @ 9:53 pmhttp://wonkette.com/389973/oregon-paper-is-unbelievably-gay-for-obama
The issue that has really swung WV into the GOP column is guns. This has been a Dem state since John L. Lewis.
Another Drew (8018ee) — 5/13/2008 @ 10:13 pmArent you all excited about the prospect of a possible Obama loss? Well, sorry to bust your bubble, it aint happening. The sooner we all begin to brace up for a possible Mccain/Obama match up, the better for all of us. West Virginia changes nothing.
love2008 (d2a57f) — 5/14/2008 @ 2:44 amAny comments on the MS special election?
Republican candidates are as popular as herpes.
Andrew J. Lazarus (b98742) — 5/14/2008 @ 7:07 amAndrew J. Lazarus — the Dims ran a pro-life, pro-gun candidate who distanced himself from Obama.
Is that the future of the Dim party?
Lets see if he holds the seat in a normal election in 6 months.
wls (328b4b) — 5/14/2008 @ 8:24 amYou know that, and I know that, but dem dere bitter, cousin-humpin’, Wilder-electin’, God-and-gun-clingin’ rednecks in West Vuhginny dinn know dat. That’s why so danged many of them went out to vote for a guy who wasn’t even running in their state.
Xrlq (b71926) — 5/14/2008 @ 12:28 pm