Patterico's Pontifications


Super Tuesday Predictions Open Thread

Filed under: 2008 Election — Patterico @ 7:30 am

Get yer predictions in now.

30 Responses to “Super Tuesday Predictions Open Thread”

  1. My prediction is: We’re screwed no matter what…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  2. The country loses.

    gabriel (6d7447)

  3. gee, you are all so optimistic! 😉

    ginni (b80551)

  4. I prefer to think of it as “realistic”…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  5. Romney vs. Hillary.

    Turnout was way low this morning when I voted at peak voting time. That means organization wins.

    Aside: There were two “poll watchers” at the entrance of the polling place. I stopped to talk to them. One of them did not know that there was more than one primary taking place. Hopefully, she was an extreme partisan who only ever asked for one party’s ballot. I would hope that she was not simply a political illiterate who had never voted in a primary. She was a very charming lady, in any case.

    nk (4ebdf4)

  6. nk, last night on the local news, they interviewed a college gal who said this primary was really important, because young people have never had such a wide selection to choose from…

    Obviously, she couldn’t have been a democrat, unless “Choice A or B” is a plethora of choice for her…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  7. All seven Democratic candidates were on the “beauty contest” part at the top of the ballot. But there were only Clinton and Obama delegates below and that is what really counts in Illinois. The ballot allows you to vote for six and it can be three for Obama and three for Hillary. 😉

    nk (4ebdf4)

  8. Like Obama won’t end up with all 6 in IL…

    Even if no one votes him any… 🙂

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  9. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Ron Paul will win a state: Alaska. Sad to say, that’s one more state then Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani won.

    Steverino (e00589)

  10. Don’t give up on the girls, Scott, or the black people who believe that Billy was the first black president.

    nk (4ebdf4)

  11. Tip: It’s flu season. Bring your own pen if you’re voting by paper ballot or hand sanitizer if you’re voting by touch screen.

    nk (4ebdf4)

  12. Or, have gotten a flu shot…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  13. Are you kidding me? It makes no difference who wins the GOP nomination, the party has been destroyed and can’t recover for at least four years. Obama or Hillary? CA will go for Obama and he will win a slight majority of the votes for the convention. Never in history have two candidates gone this far along in the process without telling us what they plan to do.

    Hope? WTF does that mean? Government checks for everyone?

    Change? What? A pistol for a revolver?

    Medical Care? Insurance? So far we hear Clinton will force 100% enrollment in a government plan, one that has already been soundly rejected. A voluntary plan from Obama, one that simply won’t be solvent from day one.

    Iraq: Obama will cut and run; Hillary will at least try to assure the safety of Iraqis. How Hillary will accomplish this is a mystery.

    Potential Super Problem: Suppose Obama wins 75% majorities in Black districts in California but will get no delegates from any other part of the state because he loses white districts 51-49, thus awarding Hillary most of the delegates without a majority of the vote? Could riots happen? I doubt it only because his main support is upper class support, but don’t count violence out of the equation.

    Howard Veit (cc8b85)

  14. That Republican primary ballot in my Chicago precinct was a short exercise. President – 5 choices, Senator – 3 choices, States Atty – 1 choice. No alderman, judges, commissioners… Vote for the 2 delegates and the 2 alternates for your chosen candidate and that’s it. One of the alternates was named “Hastert.” Go figure.

    The electioneering for our local alderman was insane, with 4 guys literally shouting at me as I tried to walk in. I politely reminded them that they were supposed to be 100 feet away, and ultimately told them what Sam Zell said.

    R – Romney wins enough delegates to keep him around.
    D – Hillary in a landslide.

    carlitos (2bcbb9)

  15. 2 and 2?

    On the Hart machines, the screens gave 4 and 4…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  16. I loved teh Hart ballot machines, btw… Very simple to use.

    I was slightly worried upon seeing it was the electronic machines (my polling place had never had them before), but my father reminded me of something very important…

    “They are designed for the general populace…”

    He was right. Easy as heck to use…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  17. Illinois Republicans assign from 2 to 4 delegates depending on the relative strength of the Republican vote in that given Congressional district. Here in Danny Davis’ 7th District, we get only 2 – no surprise.

    There is no Republican challenger for my Aldermanic seat, so nothing to vote for in the primary.

    carlitos (2bcbb9)

  18. Ok Tin foil hat time, but interesting.

    A coworker just returned from voting at lunch and said they give the wrong ballot(D) and he went back and got a (R). But he said the lady said that alot of people were switching parties today and requesting the other ballot?? Could this be Dems switching to Rep to vote for McCain to mess up the Rep. since they are happy with essentially either Hillary or Obama?? And they know it would be easier to defeat McCain in the long run? Probably nothing but thought it was interesting….

    Tom K (d3e3bf)

  19. Lose/Lose

    McCain loses, we get Clintbama and 4 years of attacks and blaming conservative Republicans.
    McCain wins, we get and 4 years of attacks and blaming conservative Republicans.

    Candidate McCain=voter’s remorse.

    LaMano (fcd61d)

  20. I predict a booming market two years hence in “Don’t Blame Me, I Voted For ____” buttons.

    ras (fc54bb)

  21. LOL

    I should start printing those shirts…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  22. Scott,

    I should start printing those shirts…

    Yeah, with the fill-in-the-blank space as is. Print a date of 2010 or so right underneath the caption.

    Betcha you could sell a zillion during the election. Hell, you could prob even sell a half-zil right at the party conventions this year.

    ras (fc54bb)

  23. I’m looking to trademarking the 5 main variations on “Don’t blame me, I voted for”…

    Scott Jacobs (3c07ad)

  24. Don’t get too cocky now – remember the sports team that filed trademarks for “19-0” and “19-0 The Perfect Season.” …

    carlitos (2bcbb9)

  25. Want a prediction on the primaries? Well, perhaps a seer made one more than 300 years ago… That’s what published yesterday. Just for laughs 🙂

    Sam (b9fbb2)

  26. I predict Christoph will be allowed back as a commenter.

    DRJ (517d26)

  27. Prediction:

    D: Roughly equal numbers of (NON-super) delegates won by Hillary! and Obama today. Both continue the campaign. Absent a Clinton/Obama “deal” prior to the DNC, Hillary! wins the nomination narrowly by dint of SuperDelegates.

    R: Although McCain loses some ground vs. “just after FL,” it becomes clear by tomorrow morning that Romney cannot overtake him, particularly with stalking-poodle Huckabee nipping at Romney’s heels. Romney to drop out within 2 weeks, absent McCain scandal /etc., and McCain wins RNC nom.

    Mitch (890cbf)

  28. Huckabee won West Virginia. He must have promised them shoes.

    nk (4ebdf4)

  29. Hillary fares better today than expected. Barry O’Kennedy domeinates in NYC, Chicago, LA, and the other major metros on the board today. Romney keeps McCain within arms reach. Huckabee screws up the Republican party.

    JD (a11194)

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