1/19/2008

14 Responses to “Nevada and South Carolina Elections (Updated_x2)”

1. Wow.

   Well, that seems like death for Thompson’s campaign, and a real boost to McCain. He could well be the nominee.

   God help us.

   Patterico (0507ff) — 1/19/2008 @ 6:14 pm

   
   

2. Good bye Fred. Like Rudy he may have picked a strategy that just didn’t pan out. We will know after Florida if that is the case for Rudy.

   voiceofreason (f4b829) — 1/19/2008 @ 6:27 pm

   
   

3. My “anybody but Giuliani” funny bone is getting a big tickle, though.

   nk (a07608) — 1/19/2008 @ 6:28 pm

   
   

4. Anyone for MDS?

   http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article3207017.ece

   or the party faithful come to their senses?

   http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/607onvmn.asp

   voiceofreason (f4b829) — 1/19/2008 @ 6:42 pm

   
   

5. VOR,

   MDS would mean they would have to blame him for things that are clearly not of his doing, as Bush was blamed for, for ex, the weather. This is not the case; conservatives vociferously disagree w/McCain’s policies, but still see the weather as the weather.

   Of note tho is the writer’s need to jump at any chance – even a false one – to claim moral equivalence. I suppose, in a backhanded way, this phenomenon indicates a silver lining: it shows that BDS sufferers understand their own irrationality, not enough to give it up, but at least to the pt of being embarrassed by it. Which of course then leads to the q: if they already know it’s irrational, why persist at all?

   Because it ain’t about what it’s about, that’s why.

   ras (fc54bb) — 1/19/2008 @ 6:59 pm

   
   

6. ras,
   I didn’t coin the phrase. But the reaction of the base to McCain is worth noting. You won’t see it much at Patterico but at some of the other blogs the phrases McAmnesty, McShame, etc. have been used quite liberally before the primary voting started.

   voiceofreason (f4b829) — 1/19/2008 @ 7:05 pm

   
   

7. #4,

   If the British like him, I hate him.

   nk (a07608) — 1/19/2008 @ 7:07 pm

   
   

8. vor,

   Xref those complaints to the definition/blame I gave above. Changes nothing, other than to hilite the author’s need to equate one condition (BDS, irrational blame) with another (rational anger).

   The original comparison is clearly inapt, but it does say much about the author that he would attempt it anyway.

   ras (fc54bb) — 1/19/2008 @ 7:10 pm

   
   

9. ras,
   He makes several good points about the state of the GOP at this juncture.
   It is clear that he doesn’t like Bush but his description of a badly fractured party are spot on.

   Kristol’s column has very similar sentiments and is certainly not an anti-Bush column.

   voiceofreason (f4b829) — 1/19/2008 @ 7:13 pm

   
   

10. Let not your hearts be troubled out there. Romney is the top delegate getter out there for the republicans. I believe that this trend will continue as the primary season goes on. We’ve only just begun.

    bigwavedave (3b3cd2) — 1/19/2008 @ 8:18 pm

    
    

11. I hope that Thompson stays in, at least until we see if there is an obvious Convention choice. Considering all those that say they won’t vote for McCain, or say the same about Romney or Giuliani or Huckabee (I’m one of the latter), Thompson might be the one everyone can compromise on.

    Maybe it IS McCain — and as much as I think he’s a jerk in several respects, I’d rather he was appointing successors to Stevens and Ginsberg than Obama or either Clinton. But maybe it isn’t.

    I’d like to see Thompson available until we find out.

    Kevin Murphy (0b2493) — 1/19/2008 @ 9:05 pm

    
    

12. Thompson’s campaign is nearly broke and he has no wins or even second place finishes. He is done and likely would make a lousy VP pick. He doesn’t seem too motivated to get out and stir up the voters for his own campaign – why would he do it as the VP choice?
    Someone like Hunter will get the nod. Hunter because he is conservative and from California and would force the Dems to spend some money there to defend it.

    voiceofreason (f4b829) — 1/19/2008 @ 9:11 pm

    
    

13. Posted odds now have Hillary as the 2-1 favorite over Obama.

    Fred’s done.

    I predicted that this would become McCain-Romney some time ago, and that is what it looks like; bettors finally have Romney in the second position behind McCain, with both Rudy and Huckabee alive:

    McCain: 5-3
    Romney: 3-1
    Rudy: 4-1
    Huck: 6-1

    Interestingly, this leaves a total of zero candidates who are genuinely right of the center of the Republican party.

    My own view is that Rudy and Huckabee’s odds are not nearly as good; when you can’t win South Carolina with that rhetoric, Mikey, you’re in trouble. Rudy’s strategy – such as it is – seems exceptionally unlikely to work.

    I predict that if McCain wins, he will not put Hunter or Huckabee on the ticket.

    –JRM

    JRM (355c21) — 1/20/2008 @ 2:11 am

    
    

14. And, oh yeah, I’m voting for McCain in California now that Fred is toast.

    Fine host, I know you don’t want us to vote for McCain. Is there someone else you think we should vote for? I would be surprised to hear that McCain’s your fourth choice of these four guys (though I’d not be surprised to hear he’d be your third choice.)

    –JRM

    JRM (355c21) — 1/20/2008 @ 2:14 am