Patterico's Pontifications

1/8/2008

New Hampshire Predictions

Filed under: 2008 Election,General — Patterico @ 7:03 am



Get them on record now.

50 Responses to “New Hampshire Predictions”

  1. 1. Romney (barely)
    2. McCain
    3. Thompson
    4. Giuliani

    1. Obama (by double-digits)
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards
    4. Richardson (barely registers)

    Mike Lief (e6260e) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:10 am

  2. Obama
    Edwards
    Clinton

    McCain
    Romney
    Thompson

    Guilani will drop out and start angling for a VP slot.

    Techie (ed20d9) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:25 am

  3. Republicans:

    1. McCain
    2. Romney (close)
    [big gap]
    3. Paul
    4. Huckabee

    Dems:

    1. Obama (by plenty)
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards

    Obama’s betting odds have gone from 3-1 against to 2-1 for in the last 10 days or so. If it goes the way I think it will, Hillary may be out after Feb. 5.

    McCain is now the listed favorite for the Republicans with Rudy the two-seed and Huck as third-most-likely winner, though I think the betting public is not as optimistic as it ought to be on Romney.

    For Rudy to win, he’s going a different direction than all other candidates in history. People have blown off Iowa before, but ditching Iowa and New Hampshire is pretty shocking. I think that severely impacts his ability to win in California, and helps McCain – another moderate Republican.

    –JRM

    JRM (355c21) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:28 am

  4. GOP:

    McCain
    Romney
    Paul (approx. 12%)
    Thompson (approx. 10%)
    Huckabee (approx. 9%)
    Rudy (approx 8-9%)
    Field

    Democrats:

    Obama
    Hillary (approx 15% lower)
    Edwards (approx 25% lower than Obama)
    Richardson
    Field.

    Jeff (eb7e2f) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:34 am

  5. JRM: From your keyboard to God’s ear.

    Old Coot (2f9910) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:49 am

  6. GOP –

    McCain (by about 5%)
    Romney
    Huckabee (with maybe 15%)
    Paul
    Thompson

    Democrats –

    Obama
    Clinton (within 10%)
    Edwards (within 5%)
    Richardson (with a negligible sum; Richardson drops)

    I agree with Techie; Giuliani’s strategy is going to backfire. By February 5th, the GOP will have identified a favorite son amongst the base, without all the social-issue baggage. He missed his window.

    Leviticus (958a9e) — 1/8/2008 @ 9:00 am

  7. I’ll echo JMR

    Dr T (69c4b2) — 1/8/2008 @ 9:13 am

  8. I think JMR’s got it right too, but, personally, watch the process by which we choose the Most Powerful Person on the Planet and think it very superficial and flawed, so consultant driven and full of media hype and spin.

    I watched Colin Powell being interviewed last night and thought again that he is head and shoulders above anyone running now. A statesman and warrior that I would feel much more comfortable leading this nation in the difficult and dangerous years ahead, yet he choose not to run, some say because he was unwilling to subject his family to the nonsense of a Presidential campaign. Whatever his reason it was a loss to the country.

    JayHub (0a6237) — 1/8/2008 @ 9:25 am

  9. Romney
    McCain
    Paul
    Huckabee
    Thompson
    Rudy

    Obama
    Clinton
    Edwards
    Richardson

    daytrader (ea6549) — 1/8/2008 @ 10:07 am

  10. 1. Romney (by less than a tenth of a percent)
    2. McCain
    3. Paul

    1. Obama (by double-digits)
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards

    Andrew (08ba2c) — 1/8/2008 @ 10:24 am

  11. Dems: O 42 HRC 32 JE 25 Others 1
    Rep: McC 26 Mitt 22 Huck 20 Rudy 14 Paul 12 Fred 5 Others 1

    I was going to put Giuliani at 9.11% but that is a little too low.

    Andrew J. Lazarus (7d46f9) — 1/8/2008 @ 10:28 am

  12. I predict Clinton will cry, and not crocodile tears, the real deal.

    papertiger (3a3033) — 1/8/2008 @ 10:34 am

  13. Matt Drudge is reporting: “Secretary of State is making runs to Seacoast – Hampton, Portsmouth – and Southern Hillsborough – Pelham, Nashua – to bring extra democratic ballots. Many towns are reporting shortages… Developing…”

    This would appear to be good for Obama, bad for Hillary. Might be bad for McCain and good for Romney, it this represents a lot of independents voting for Obama, not McCain.

    JayHub (0a6237) — 1/8/2008 @ 10:56 am

  14. McCain
    Romney
    Huckabee
    Giuliani, Paul (tie)
    Thompson

    Obama
    Clinton
    Edwards
    Richardson

    DRJ (5942f5) — 1/8/2008 @ 11:05 am

  15. Democrats:
    Obama +10%
    Clinton
    asterisks

    Republican:
    McCain +5%
    Romney
    Thompson
    Giuliani
    asterisks

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b) — 1/8/2008 @ 11:13 am

  16. The big story: How Huckabee can’t make it with non-evangelical Republicans. Single issue candidacy.

    Kevin Murphy (805c5b) — 1/8/2008 @ 11:15 am

  17. Hillary Clinton doesn’t win.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 11:46 am

  18. 1. Romney (barely)
    2. McCain
    3. Thompson
    4. Giuliani

    1. Obama (by double-digits)
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards
    4. Richardson (barely registers)

    Comment by Mike Lief — 1/8/2008 @ 7:10 am

    I think Paul will edge out Guiliani, further damaging his already failing campaign. Other than that, I think you’ve got it right.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 11:58 am

  19. Bill Clinton will declare that Hillary won because she did so well when everyone is against her.

    Perfect Sense (b6ec8c) — 1/8/2008 @ 12:35 pm

  20. Speaking of Ron Paul, it is with great pleasure because I despise racism, antisemitism, and elitism in this sense I predict the Ron Paul blimp is about to deflate.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 12:44 pm

  21. My top three for each party…

    Pachyderms:

    McCain (squeaker)
    Romney
    Huckabee

    Donk’s:

    Obama (Spanking Hill by double digits)
    Cankles
    Johnny “Beefcake” Edwards

    Epilogue – HRC goes into Chernobyl mode and conducts private execution of members of her campaign staff tonight. Begala and Carvell come in to conduct damage control of the campaign before Super Tuesday on February 5th, but to no avail…

    fmfnavydoc (affdec) — 1/8/2008 @ 3:39 pm

  22. Because when I think “Change for the future!”, I think Paul Begala and James Carville.

    What, was George Stephanopolis unavailable to complete the trifecta?

    Techie (ed20d9) — 1/8/2008 @ 3:53 pm

  23. Christoph #20,

    The New Republic link is back up with the entire story. The twerp was polluting the airways with his Little Miss Nancy voice on Jay Leno, last night. I guess Jay didn’t know any of this.

    nk (4bb3c1) — 1/8/2008 @ 4:25 pm

  24. Politico has results coming in. Click here to see them.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 4:40 pm

  25. As of now, with 6.64% of precincts reporting, Clinton is just ahead of Obama 36.8-36%.

    With 5.98% of precincts reporting, McCain is ahead of Romney 38.8% – 27.7%.

    No word on where the precincts are.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 4:42 pm

  26. nk#23, it’s good to see the twerp twist in the wind. I’m glad we’re of the same mind.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 4:45 pm

  27. With 7.64% of precincts reporting for both parties, Clinton is just ahead of Obama 37.6% – 35.76%.

    McCain is ahead of Romney 37.59% – 28.07%.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 4:48 pm

  28. With 9.3% of precincts reporting for both parties, Clinton is still ahead of Obama 37.47% – 36.49%.

    With 8.97% of precincts reporting, McCain is ahead of Romney 37.39% – 28.07%.

    So — the Clinton lead is still holding. McCain is strongly ahead. Less than 10% counted.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 4:57 pm

  29. However, exit polls — McCain 35, Mitt 30; Obama 39, Hillary 34 — per Fox News and Hot Air.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:11 pm

  30. But Patient Less Than Zero is still supporting Ron Paul, Christoph.

    (Pass the popcorn!)

    David Ehrenstein (da3648) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:25 pm

  31. I see the superior intellect finally climbed out of his hidey-hole.

    And I’m still laughing.

    Paul (dbbea6) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:43 pm

  32. The New Republic link is back up with the entire story.

    LGF had the newsletter story back in early November.

    Paul (dbbea6) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:48 pm

  33. Whoa, with almost 19% of voting stations reporting, Clinton is 3.5% over Obama… it isn’t over yet, but her lead has been widening.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:51 pm

  34. Going just by the headings in LGF, the TNR story is much worse. Basically, he’s a half-baked KKK Grand Kookkoo.

    nk (4bb3c1) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:55 pm

  35. Utterly unpredicted by me, this day could be going ideally for what I want to happen politically.

    – Ron Paul, the Republican libertarian fringe candidate who’s been attracting a lot of attention and donations could be being outed as a white supremacist anti-Semite kook as opposed to just a kook.
    – My guy, McCain, is winning big in New Hampshire, which he has to do to stop Mitt Romney, who is losing big. Two losses for Romney — not good.
    – Guiliani is collapsing behind Ron Paul — again.
    – There’s more, like Fred’s deservedly poor showing, but that will do on the G.O.P. side for a start.
    – And Hillary is doing surprisingly strong in initial results.

    If that holds, maybe she wins the state… and goes on to compete in a tough fight, losing South Carolina but picking up other states. If so, she’s an easier candidate for my guy to beat in the actual election. And she’ll have lost money competing harder than expected against Obama.

    The exit polling (interviewing of people after they vote) still shows an Obama win, but the initial results as officially reported show Clinton leading. Tighter than expected. Whereas my guy did better than expected. He’s RELUCTANTLY my guy… far from perfect. But still my guy even though I’m glad Bush beat him in 2000.

    — And it’s no worse than I thought, nk!

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 5:57 pm

  36. Going just by the headings in LGF, the TNR story is much worse. Basically, he’s a half-baked KKK Grand Kookkoo.

    Actually, nk, that link is just scratching the surface over there. Charles Johnson has been pointing this out about Ron Paul for months.

    Paul (dbbea6) — 1/8/2008 @ 6:02 pm

  37. And I just became an LGFer after a couple years of being denied! Way to go Charles.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 6:31 pm

  38. 52.49% reporting:

    Clinton – 39.09
    Obama – 36.55

    Difference = 2.54

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:02 pm

  39. 56.14% reporting:

    Clinton – 39.04
    Obama – 36.65

    Difference = 2.39

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:03 pm

  40. My predictions: Clinton barely edges out Obama. For the Republicans, McCain over Romney.

    […]

    What?

    Today?

    McGehee (25adee) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:18 pm

  41. Thoughts:

    1. Looks like Hillary will win New Hampshire. I’m a little disappointed; I think Barack Obama would be considerably better for America than Hillary. (I don’t buy into the Hillary-as-evil thing, but I certainly buy into the dishonest, self-aggrandizing, enormous-government Hillary.)

    2. Thompson’s done. I’m not going to waste my vote on Feb. 5 for him unless he does very well, very soon, and I don’t think he’s the right kind of conservative for South Carolina voters. It’s a shame, but that’s reality.

    3. It does appear that The New Republic research gives some new things, but enough of this was published before that it should have hit the MSM harder. Paul needs to be called out on this. His excuses are particularly amazing.

    Libertarian-leaning politicians are often useful-to-good, but a lot of the party members – present and past – have fairly serious personality defects. Paul’s form of Libertarianism gives personal choice to all white Christians, no matter what part of Europe they are from, or what denomination of protestantism they endorse.

    His backers… at least the LaRouchies found someone to love.

    4. Giuliani did better than I expected. He’s still in trouble, though he’s got some chance.

    I’m back to a prediction I made some time ago: McCain over Romney. McCain’s primary problem is getting out of his own way; he’s a charming guy who has a lot of assets, but the F-U to Conryn was way, way out of line, and his temperment is suspect. Romney’s smoother, but there’s less there. Huckabee is a Republican effort to lose the election, and not by a little.

    –JRM, who still has to figure out who to vote for with Fred heading back to Law and Order.

    JRM (355c21) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:32 pm

  42. NBC has just called it for Hillary.

    David Ehrenstein (da3648) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:35 pm

  43. So has AP — for Hillary.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:38 pm

  44. “…with Fred heading back to Law and Order…”
    Last time I looked, they had a new DA (Jack McCoy) on L&O.
    Perhaps “Arthur Branch” can run for Mayor?

    And the end of the primaries (the Convention) is when?
    And IA and NH awarded how many of the delegates?

    Don’t rush the fat-lady off the stage prematurely.

    Another Drew (8018ee) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:38 pm

  45. “Giuliani did better than I expected. He’s still in trouble, though he’s got some chance.”

    I agree.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:40 pm

  46. Obama concedes. Graciously.

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 7:52 pm

  47. Nobody predicted Clinton above.

    Patterico (4bda0b) — 1/8/2008 @ 9:00 pm

  48. That’s true, Patterico. It is good news for my (reluctantly chosen) guy, McCain, I think, and the G.O.P. generally. If Obama and Clinton fight, bleed resources, and drive up each other’s negatives, that’s good.

    Whether it’s enough is a good question. In any case, Fred Thompson did terrible. I heard him speak the other day and his ideas sounded good. But his campaign is horrible and if he can’t manage/run that and has no experience running anything, why should he be President?

    Christoph (92b8f7) — 1/8/2008 @ 9:13 pm

  49. I predict an upset victory for Hillary, and John McCain over Romney by 5 points.

    David

    David J Harr (6dba95) — 1/8/2008 @ 9:50 pm

  50. Richardson drops. I win (and lose, at the same time).

    Leviticus (958a9e) — 1/10/2008 @ 6:11 pm


Powered by WordPress.

Page loaded in: 0.0972 secs.