Iowa Poll Update (Updated)
[Guest post by DRJ]
Here are the most recent Iowa polls from RealClearPolitics.
Date Sample Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Biden Spread Poll
12/26 – 01/01 – 29.0 28.6 26.0 5.0 4.5 Obama +0.4 RCP Average
12/29 – 01/01 – 933 LV 28 28 26 7 4 Tie————— Zogby Tracking
12/28 – 12/30 – 600 LV 32 27 29 2 5 Obama +3.0 Strategic Vision (R)
12/27 – 12/30 – 800 LV 32 25 24 6 4 Obama +7.0 Des Moines Register
12/26 – 12/30 – 482 LV 31 33 22 5 5 Clinton +2.0 CNN
12/28 – 12/29 – 788 LV 22 30 29 — — Clinton +1.0 Insider Advantage
Date Huckabee Romney McCain Thompson Paul Giuliani Spread Poll
12/26 – 01/01 – 29.0 28.3 12.8 11.8 7.5 6.0 Huckabee +0.7 RCP Average
12/29 – 01/01 – 28 26 12 12 9 7 Huckabee +2.0 Zogby Tracking
12/28 – 12/31 – 29 25 12 10 7 8 Huckabee +4.0 Zogby Tracking
12/28 – 12/30 – 28 30 16 13 4 4 Romney +2.0 Strategic Vision (R)
The RCP averages make both races look too close to call.
UPDATE: Let’s guess the results. I call the Republican race for Huckabee-Romney-Thompson-McCain, and the Democratic race for Obama-Edwards-Clinton-Richardson. What’s your best guess?
— DRJ
I think you’re right, DRJ. Maybe Obama-Clinton-Edwards-Richardson, but other than that…
Leviticus (c41bb2) — 1/2/2008 @ 3:51 pmTrue, Levi. That one might have been a little wishful thinking on my part.
DRJ (29b04b) — 1/2/2008 @ 4:12 pmRon Paul-Ron Paul-Ron Paul
And that’s on the Democratic side!
Who’s running among the Republicans?
NotAPaulista (3d602a) — 1/2/2008 @ 4:28 pmI’m sticking to my bet. Any bets on which one of the big three will give the Howard Dean scream?
nk (5221ab) — 1/2/2008 @ 4:45 pmAre you kidding me, nk?
Don’t get me wrong: I’d be tickled pink if Richardson won either Iowa or New Hampshire… but I really don’t think that’s going to happen.
Leviticus (506fe8) — 1/2/2008 @ 4:50 pmIt’s Romney tomorrow.
No clue who wins New Hampshire.
steve (430c4a) — 1/2/2008 @ 4:51 pmAre you really too incompetent to include Ron Paul on your fake polls?
disinter (1bc29a) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:01 pmWe’ll see, Leviticus. Just twenty-four hours.
nk (5221ab) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:01 pmNK just wants to buy me a dinner.
DRJ (29b04b) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:01 pmdisinter,
Paul is in the poll between Thompson and Giuliani. If you have a beef with his placement, you need to contact RealClearPolitics. That’s where RCP says he is polling.
DRJ (29b04b) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:03 pmEvidently disinter is too incompetent to read.
SPQR (26be8b) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:04 pmPlease believe that I’m no Scott Jacobs. And forgive me for saying that I cannot lose either way.
nk (5221ab) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:09 pmThe Scream…
Another Drew (8018ee) — 1/2/2008 @ 5:50 pmRemember, Howards third-place in IA was his high-water mark.
I’ll take Eisenhower over Taft on the GOP side and Al Smith by a whisker over that upstart Roosevelt for the Dems. And, just to piss off disinter, Harry Browne will trounce Ron Paul among the Libertarians.
JVW (9da65c) — 1/2/2008 @ 6:33 pmDuncan Hunter wins it +5.
I’m bound to get one of these political predictions right some day just by law of averages.
j curtis (8bcca6) — 1/2/2008 @ 6:41 pmRegardless of outcome in either party, America loses. With 300+ million citizens you would think that something other than turds would rise to the top.
MikeD (4c8555) — 1/2/2008 @ 6:58 pmone thing you always have to take into account when evaluating polls is the reluctance factor. people will be planning to do something at the important moment, but they will be reluctant to admit this in advance to a pollster.
punditing these results: for the gop, the reluctance factor favors ron paul (whom i support). he’s gotten so much calumny in recent print it seems like some people are a little afraid of him, may be trying to swamp him in a tide of derision (this happens every quadrennium, howard dean in ’04, who would have been a stronger democratic candidate than kerry). the huckabee-romney competitive religiosity makes this pagan grin, as does the fact that the strongest republican candidate in the general, rudy giuliani, is polling dead last in iowa.
on the demo side, the reluctance factor favors obama. it’s a two horse race now, edwards and richardson aren’t going anywhere. either a female president or a black president would be a significant departure from historical norms, the question is, which alternative would pollees be more reluctant to confess to the pollster? hint: there’s a female in just about every iowa household, not nearly so much with blacks. hillary is in trouble with these numbers. the poll i trust the most (coincidentally, from iowa) is the iowa electronic markets, run by the university of iowa business school, where you can bet real money on elections (up to $500) but they don’t offer an iowa caucus parlay, just repub/demo parlays and a general election parlay.
assistant devil's advocate (5e24f7) — 1/2/2008 @ 7:02 pmGOP= M T H R
Tregg Wright (946930) — 1/3/2008 @ 9:29 amDem= O C R E
“With 300+ million citizens you would think that something other than turds would rise to the top.”
-MikeD
Just wait til you see their platforms come September.
“Everything that rises must converge”
-Anton Chekhov
Leviticus (261c17) — 1/3/2008 @ 9:35 am“Please believe that I’m no Scott Jacobs. And forgive me for saying that I cannot lose either way.”
-nk
What do you mean (in each part)?
Leviticus (261c17) — 1/3/2008 @ 9:36 amNever mind. Scott Jacobs and his DRJ-crush, Win-Win situation in re: Richardson.
I are smart.
Leviticus (261c17) — 1/3/2008 @ 9:38 am