L.A. Murder Rate Is Lowest In Nearly Four Decades
[posted by Justin Levine]
Here is some good news for the holidays.
Los Angeles is on track to record its lowest homicide rate since 1970, when 394 people were killed.
This mirrors recent trends in New York. As the NY Times pointed out in November –
But within the citys official crime statistics is a figure that may be even more striking: so far, with roughly half the killings analyzed, only 35 were found to be committed by strangers, a microscopic statistic in a city of more than 8.2 million.
As for L.A., “Police attribute the decline to a variety of factors, including more focused policing — and chance.”
Reporters might not be considering the classical music factor, which some California judges are taking notice of. More Mozart. Less Snoop.
[PDF link alert] Broken Windows theory is becoming more and more prescient as the years go by.
— Justin Levine
I’d chalk it up to longer prison sentences.
tired (f29bff) — 12/24/2007 @ 5:48 amGreat stuff. I’ve been pushed to the brink of antisocial behavior by the punks’ favorites of aggression and sex at obscene decibels from boom boxes and car stereos. Why not turn the tables, and stake out the turf of civilization by broadcasting some 18th-century selections to disinvite the thuggery in public spaces? It’s far more effective than urinating around the perimeters to claim territory, and some folks might even like it.
However, this website should really learn to spell ‘Mozart’. Sort of makes one think that the poster has not one album of same. You try it, you like it! Maybe it could be packaged in an album cover entitled Dead White Males, for the edification of hip urban yuppies.
Insufficiently Sensitive (b0db09) — 12/24/2007 @ 7:08 amWhen Governor Arnold releases the 22,00 “non violent”
Stan Switek (7cfd24) — 12/24/2007 @ 8:32 amprisoners from prison in his proposed cost cutting move, even though these prisoners are “non violent, rest assured they will have an affect on the murder rate.
It’s certainly good to see!
I don’t think the change from ’06 to ’07 is due to longer prison sentences, but I do think that’s a big issue in the big picture.
Non-justifiable, non-negligent homicides skyrocketed nationwide from the early 60’s to the early 70’s, then rose gradually, peaking in 1980. Murders went down slightly until about 1994, when they really started a substantial slide back to pre-1970 levels. This coincides with the implementation of anti-recidivist statutes, including California’s Three Strikes law.
LA County, because of the gang presence, has a higher rate of homicides than many other areas (though not as high as some of the most violent urban areas.) The localized decrease is good, and it sounds like law enforcement is engaged in successful efforts to stop the primary purveyors of death, the gangs. The downside is that one substantial gang flareup can push that rate right back to where it was in ’06 pretty quickly.
Still, if anyone tells you that either America or LA is a giant cesspool of crime, you can tell ’em that the general crime trends are down since Vietnam ended.
If we end up letting out a bunch of prisoners early, crime will surely rise. I’d hate to see that.
–JRM
JRM (de6363) — 12/24/2007 @ 9:48 amHowever, this website should really learn to spell ‘Mozart’.
It’s this KFI rabble we let in here.
Patterico (05fad0) — 12/24/2007 @ 10:15 amAnecdotal evidence has been around for over twenty years attesting to the deterrant effect of classical music towards street crime.
Another Drew (8018ee) — 12/24/2007 @ 10:17 amBut, of course, the Boomer Generation could never bring itself to believe that the music of DWM could be a positive for a society.
It’s always just been about them – everyone knows history started in ____ (insert your favorite 60’s year here)!
“It’s this KFI rabble we let in here.”
A “protege” of William Wolf Handel, Esquire!
Another Drew (8018ee) — 12/24/2007 @ 10:27 amThat’s hilarious because just last night, we had over a couple who are friends of ours as dinner guests. The husband of the couple had evidently just heard Bill Handel on local radio, evidently syndicated as we are not in California. ( We moved out here from California some time ago, but had heard him when we were in southern California long ago ). Both of the couple are paralegals ( and in one case, a former student of mine ). He asked me if Handel was really as ignorant of the law as his brief listening implied.
SPQR (26be8b) — 12/24/2007 @ 11:49 amWhy does it have to be classical? Couldn’t they mix it up with jazz or barber shop quartet? Given the characteristics (i.e. thumping beats, amelodic, lots of cusswords) of the hardcore rap favored crime-committing youth…wouldn’t just about anything non-hardcore rap work? How many of them would hang around a place that played only the Eagles, or Babs Striesand, or James Blunt?
Mike (bfd9f4) — 12/24/2007 @ 7:18 pm