OBL Has Words for US [Updated Link]
[Guest post by DRJ]
[Updated link bumped to the top.]
Osama Bin Laden is in the news:
Osama Bin Laden plans to issue a video message addressing the American people on the sixth anniversary of the attacks on September 11, US-based monitoring service SITE said on Thursday.
“The SITE Intelligence Group has learned that a new video message is forthcoming from the head of Al-Qaeda” on the 9/11 anniversary, said the group, which monitors extremist websites and publications.”
Here are my guesses on the significance of this:
1. OBL is alive, able to send out messages to the world, and in charge of al Qaeda, or
2. Al Qaeda is planning another major terrorist event and this is part of that event, or
3. Al Qaeda is reduced to propaganda efforts after the disruption of its terror cells in Germany and Denmark.
Opinions welcome.
I think he will apologize for his absence due to his inability to put down the book ‘Living History’ which took him 16 months to finish.
MagicalPat (14cf59) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:17 pmOBL is long since dead, but AQ leadership would lose legitimacy by admitting it, and the US prefers to let him end as a whimper.
ras (adf382) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:25 pmI suspect the usual message. Vague threats of major blows against the dar al-harb. Heartening assurances of imminent victory to his followers.
Not a man to be taken lightly ever. I’d still lean to the significance of timing being his need to demonstrate that he’s alive and talking after a rough year for the burnoose boys. Not sure about being in charge though.
Just Passing Through (cb6c8d) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:33 pmOnce again, it will be reused old video of the long dead Bin Laden. The last video was traced to October 2001.
Robin Roberts (6c18fd) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:35 pmHaven’t his videos contained more current references than October 2001?
Just Passing Through (cb6c8d) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:36 pmI don’t think the videos have, I saw a comparison of the last video to video dated from October 2001, where OBL had the exact same hair, clothing and background.
My recollection is that some audio tapes were supposed to be in his voice and had more recent references but I’m dubious given that it is easier to assemble audio than video.
Robin Roberts (6c18fd) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:41 pmMy guess is he will mainly speak to the crisis currently engulfing Pakistan.
alphie (99bc18) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:43 pmIt’s #3:
If were any other possibility, bin Laden would be mocking us with a current newspaper: “See? See? You can’t kill me by the will of Allah! Resistance is futile! All of you will be assimilated!”
Paul (5efd01) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:44 pmStaunch Brayer, I gave you an assignment on the Norman Hsu No Show thread. Have you done it yet?
My guess is he will mainly speak to the crisis currently engulfing Pakistan.
Will he be holding in his hands a current newspaper detailing the crisis currently engulfing Pakistan?
Paul (5efd01) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:48 pmIt’s significance will be that President Bush hasn’t caught Osama bin Laden yet, and the Democrats will go almost hoarse pointing that out — as they advocate policies that would not only not catch him, but allow al Qaeda to increase in power.
Vote Democratic! For Peace in our Time!
Dana (556f76) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:54 pmPoint taken, though I seem to recall visuals also. I think he’s alive but in the aspect of a exhausted and sick man no longer in the tactical loop. Still and consulted based on past achievements. Still venerated as the focus for those who share his belief in the ultimate victory of jihad. Just not in charge anymore.
Just Passing Through (cb6c8d) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:55 pmI don’t know, Paul.
Assuming he’s still alive, and that it takes him a while to prepare a tape, then something in the past two months or so has prompted him to speak.
This incident is a likely candidate:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/07/09/world/main3037198.shtml
alphie (99bc18) — 9/6/2007 @ 3:56 pmI think he’s alive but in the aspect of a exhausted and sick man no longer in the tactical loop.
Assuming he is, JPT, wouldn’t be of great propaganda value to have him hold up a current newspaper in a video, or read from a current one if audio is used?
That he hasn’t done this in any past recordings is why I think he’s dead.
Paul (5efd01) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:08 pmI suppose this could also be timed to coincide with Petraeus’ report on the surge. The deadline for that has been known for some time.
DRJ (2afbca) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:12 pmOh, come on, say it, DRJ: ‘I question the timing.’ 😉
Paul (5efd01) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:16 pmI’m tempted … but I’m not sure. I’m trying to think of all the possibilities but it is 9/11/07, and they seem to like those numbers.
DRJ (2afbca) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:19 pmIf Osama is alive, he knows one thing for certain: If he loses the Democrats, he loses everything.
MagicalPat (14cf59) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:21 pmLook at the two pictures on the Hot air piece and tell me that it is not obviously old video.
Bin Laden is plant food.
Robin Roberts (6c18fd) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:40 pmThe Jawa Report thinks this may involve a threat. Scroll down to Update II.
DRJ (2afbca) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:46 pmI’m guessing this video is not going to brag about a new terror attack, because usually the etiquette on those is to carry out the attack first, as a surprise, and then brag. He’s giving us too much advance warning.
Plus, he’s dead, Jim.
Daryl Herbert (4ecd4c) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:47 pmI’m a doctor not a spelunker, Daryl.
Robin Roberts (6c18fd) — 9/6/2007 @ 4:49 pmI hear the video tape is in Beta format. I wonder what that means????
MagicalPat (14cf59) — 9/6/2007 @ 5:05 pmEver notice that OBL looks like Harry Reid with a beard? Both appear to be dead; have ratlike eyes; never get to see them below the shoulders; both speak in some foreign tongue. Both continually threaten the US.
Thomas Jackson (bf83e0) — 9/6/2007 @ 5:32 pmHe’s dead as a doornail! His last video was years old when released and it was obvious before even that that he was dead.
What kind of idiot thinks he’s alive? He either died in the Tora Bora bombing or he died soon after. And the Democrats know it. Just as they know that Iraq is improving and repeatedly lie about it, they know this battle ended long ago but milk it for propaganda value.
Would Bush do that? Would he espouse propaganda harmful to our country in order to rise in the polls? No he would not. Bush ain’t a great leader, but he cares about this country a hell of a lot more than Bin Laden’s ghost enablers.
Dustin (aba75b) — 9/6/2007 @ 5:37 pmBin Laden’s ghost enablers … are, like most terrorist leaders, psychopaths, as are approx 4% of the population at large. And it was their connection to OBL that gave them power and prestige in the first place; without him, they’re back to being part of the rabble again, so they have to keep him “alive.”
BTW, IIRC, their last video, or at any rate the last one I remember, had him standing up and speaking, but the video was so distant and poor that I couldn’t tell for certain if his lips matched the words spoken, tho I suspected otherwise at the time and still do.
ras (adf382) — 9/6/2007 @ 5:51 pmMagical Pat,
I think it was technically Beta Lotta format, actually, as in you can beta lotta money on him being oil by now.
ras (adf382) — 9/6/2007 @ 5:54 pmhey, our commander-in-chief is already on record that obl isn’t a big deal to him. i don’t know if he’s dead or not. i do know his family was treated with kid gloves after 9/11.
assistant devil's advocate (b5ae8c) — 9/6/2007 @ 6:50 pmi do know his family was treated with kid gloves after 9/11.
Yeah, but do you know that his family had no connection to his ‘activities’?
This was debunked years ago, ADA. Try to keep up…or I’ll start calling you Mr. Blubonnet.
Paul (5efd01) — 9/6/2007 @ 7:09 pmada’s just ticked at all the rich people who can afford to hire a shift-key repairman of their own.
ras (adf382) — 9/6/2007 @ 7:13 pmSorry to agree with ada, guys. Our fearless Shrub’s kowtowing to the Saudis, their pet engineers the bin Laden family included, has always been a sore point with me too. I do believe that we could cut Jihadi terrorism to about 1/10 were we to remove Saudi Arabia off the face of the Earth.
nk (a6ecc6) — 9/6/2007 @ 7:23 pmNK, that’s fine but the point about Saudi Arabia does not mean that the long debunked nonsense about the Bin Laden’s getting flown out during the flight moratorium is true.
Robin Roberts (6c18fd) — 9/6/2007 @ 7:24 pmras,
or beta carotene, in the form of an underground carrot.
MagicalPat (cb4702) — 9/6/2007 @ 7:25 pmthe fbi queried obl’s family while they were on the plane waiting to take off, but they didn’t take the family off the plane. prince bandar would not have appreciated that!
now imagine i just killed 3000 people in san francisco or los angeles. what are the odds my family would be allowed to fly away to a foreign country without being detained for interrogation? bear in mind that my family has never helped finance bush’s business ventures.
i agree with nk that saudi arabia is the principal adversary in the islamic axis; much more than iraq under saddam hussein and even more than pakistan and iran.
assistant devil's advocate (b5ae8c) — 9/6/2007 @ 7:35 pmOf course, there was some major poll released today that says America will never catch/kill Bin Laden….
I am wondering however….if he is alive, I’m sure some MSM will go and get an interview sometime in the middle of the election season next year….
reff (4e3fcd) — 9/6/2007 @ 8:45 pmReff:
Of Course BL is alive. Who do you think makes up Alphie’s comments?
Thomas Jackson (bf83e0) — 9/7/2007 @ 8:29 amDead or alive, it hardly matters at this point. If we had proof that we killed him, the Leftists would declare victory and given up any pretense they had of supporting our fight against terrorism. If he is alive, he has spent his time running away from US Special Forces, which could not be a very fun existence.
JD (f6a000) — 9/7/2007 @ 10:09 am