Behind the Scenes of the Capitulation
The AP has a fascinating story that sheds more light on the filibuster capitulation, including who will be thrown under the bus next:
In the privacy of his Capitol office last Monday night, Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., asked for commitments from six Democrats fresh from the talks. Would they pledge to support filibusters against Brett Kavanaugh and William Haynes, two nominees not specifically covered by the pact with Republicans?
Some of the Democrats agreed. At least one, Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska, declined.
This occurred just minutes after the deal was finalized. Later in the story, it appears that at least five of the seven Democrats agreed to filibuster Kavanaugh and Haynes:
Reid asked Democrats to support filibusters against both Kavanaugh and Haynes.
Nelson declined. Several participants in the meeting said the others agreed, although Landrieu said Friday through a spokesman that she had not. Reid’s spokesman declined comment.
The story makes it fairly clear that, while many Senators had input into the negotiations, Frist was not driving this, as a recent Fox News story suggested.
It also makes it pretty clear that there will be more filibusters very soon. My only consolation will be that I will be able to drown my sorrows with a bottle of wine bought for me by Paul Deignan.
Okay, Patterico, let’s do a head count. Let’s suppse that Nelson and Landrieu vote for cloture. And let’s suppose that Chafee votes against, but no other Republican does (none voted against cloture with Bolton, and only Chafee, I think, voted against confirming Priscilla Owen — and even Chafee voted for cloture for her). That would mean that the cloture motion would have 56 votes, and Frist would have to find four other Democrats willing to vote for cloture.
Mark Pryor also voted for cloture for both Owen and Bolton, so let’s put him in the yes column… though of course, Owen was part of The Deal. So if Frist can find three more democrats willing to allow a vote — or two more, if Chafee doesn’t support a filibuster — then I think these two judicial nominees will both get a vote and be confirmed.
If Frist cannot find even three more — if 42 out of 45 Demcrats are willing to filibuster judges who haven’t even been vilified yet — then I would hope that Graham and DeWine would decide that this constituted a spurning of the deal, and maybe they would pull out and vote in favor of the constitutional option.
If Spector can be kept in line, that would be 50 yes votes, and we would have it.
If the Democrats successfully filibuster Kavanaugh and Haynes, and if Graham and DeWine still stick with the MoU, then I think we have lost the working majority.
On the bright side, we only have one vulnerable Senate seat in 06 (Santorum’s in PA), while the Democrats have four; we could easily pick up two net seats, which would help a lot, as we would need eight defections instead of six not to be able to bar judicial filibusters… which, by the way, could be done at the start of the 110th Congress without resort to the constitutional option.
Dafydd
Dafydd (df2f54) — 5/29/2005 @ 12:40 amI don’t think you can count on Specter. McCain, Snowe and Chafee are out for sure. That leaves you with 52 votes. The Republicans don’t have the votes for cloture, but they do for the Constitutional option – especially now that Democratic perfidy has been exposed.
However, Bolton will not be affirmed by the Senate. The Dems will votes solidly against him. Voinovich and Thune have already stated they won’t vote for him, so they only need four more votes and they’ve defeated him if the Dems even allow a vote.
antimedia (17149e) — 5/29/2005 @ 12:42 pmAllow me to ask the most unspoken question (or perhaps just a failure of imagination) ..
what happens if during one of the calls for cloture to end the debate on a judicial nominee that the Gang of 14 have already decided to give a pass, Sen. Harry Reid asks for a point of order by the president of the Senate on whether a simple majority of votes is required to pass the cloture resolution ?
Yes, this is the “nuclear option”, but invoked in this manner the intended outcome of the “nuclear option” could be suffocated forever as the point of order, the “Senate precedent” would be set. Of course, this assumes that the “Seven Dwarfs” are stupid enough to let it go down.
Neo (7136ee) — 5/29/2005 @ 6:22 pmMy bet is that Sen Byrd has already thought of this and the “Seven Dwarfs” are stupid enough.
McCain is the Neville Chamberlain of the GOP and like Chamberlain he will probably lead the party into the abyss of defeat in 06. Everybody I know is so angry that they won’t vote Republican again. Throwing over two qualified men is too disgusting to think about.
Howard Veit (baba22) — 5/30/2005 @ 7:39 amMcCain wants to be President and the politics of 2008 have already started. The AP report is bizarre is light of the NYT report that Kavanaugh and Haynes were part of an oral agreement between the gang of 14 to either filibuster or block in committee. If there was an oral agreement before the MOU was signed, why does Reid need commitments only a few minutes after the MOU is reached. Remember, politicians are masters of spin and obsfucation. This story came out after Kavanaugh and Haynes were delayed in committee. DeWine and Graham have delayed their no votes in committee to see how the wind of popular support goes. This story serves as justification of a filibuster in case Kavanaugh and Haynes make it onto the Senate floor. Who knows? Maybe McCain is still trying to salvage Graham’s career so he could be McCain’s VP in 2008.
Loren (f2f4d9) — 5/31/2005 @ 2:16 pm[…] indications are that the Democrats intend to continue the filibuster strategy. As I have reported here before, minutes after the filibuster deal was signed, H […]
Patterico’s Pontifications » Response to Bainbridge (0c6a63) — 6/26/2005 @ 2:14 amAnd we will continue to filibuster until the Republican majority can locate candidates who respect a woman’s right to choose.
Kenneth (f669e0) — 8/3/2005 @ 8:16 pmDr. Frist: please let the Democrats filibuster Brett Kavanaugh
The Senate seems to be moving on Brett Kavanaugh. Harry Reid is threatening the f-bomb. The Gang of 14 is meeting, but they probably won’t have enough Dems to block the maneuver. While many right-wingers are begging for the Constitutional
World Class Federalists in Paradise (72c8fd) — 5/3/2006 @ 2:51 pm