The RedState Fact Checker™ on Mike Pence’s Employment Claims
Today I am introducing the RedState Fact Checker™:* a recurring feature in which I fact-check claims that have been dealt with poorly by Big Media Fact Checkers. Today we analyze a claim by Vice President Mike Pence on job numbers.
Claim:
“There are more Americans working today than ever before in American history.” — Vice President Pence, remarks during a speech at the Tax Foundation, Nov. 16, 2017
The Facts
Indeed, there are more Americans working today than ever before in American history. Therefore, the claim is:
True.
**END FACT CHECK**
Nice job, everyone! Go grab yourselves a well-earned beer.
Today, the Washington Post Fact Checker analyzes the same claim, states that it is literally true — saying (and I quote): “Of course there are more Americans working” — and then proceeds to give the claim three Pinocchios.
Why? Because, they say, it is misleading.
This is the problem with fact checkers who dive into the realm of opinion. Is the statement misleading? Yeah, probably. As the article argues, the fact cited by Pence is a reflection of the growing population. The number of Americans working tends to go up because the population rises. That doesn’t automatically make the employment picture a pretty one. Obama could have made the same claim, they say, but didn’t. And, now that Obama is safely out of office, Big Media all of a sudden has discovered the labor force participation rate — something many of us cited, and continue to cite, when Big Media cites the largely meaningless “unemployment” number that ignores people who have given up looking for work. And that rate is still pretty poor. Just like it was under Obama.
But you don’t give “Pinocchios” to a fact that is true because you believe it is misleading. That is a political judgment. And (someone should try explaining this to the fact checkers sometime) checking facts is not about exercising political judgment about whether a political argument is sound. It is about fact checking. That’s why the WaPo’s feature is called the “Fact Checker” and not the “Analyzer of Whether We Agree With Certain Political Claims.”
And frankly, whether a political claim is misleading is sometimes less clear than others. Let’s illustrate this by looking at some examples from the past.
Carly Fiorina said she went from “secretary to CEO.” The Washington Post fact checkers noted she had “worked briefly as a secretary” and was later a CEO. Meaning she said she had been a secretary and a CEO, and she had been a secretary and a CEO. What did they give her for her statement? Three Pinocchios.
Ted Cruz once made this claim: “On tax reform, we, right now, have more words in the IRS code than there are in the Bible — not a one of them as good.” The Washington Post Fact Checker determined that the literally translated King James Version of the Bible contains just over 800,000 words, while there were as many as 3.7 million individual words in the IRS tax code at the time. In other words, Cruz’s claim was true. Did they declare Cruz’s fact to be true, dust off their hands, and go celebrate their fact-checking job with high-fives and a cocktail? No. They refused to declare the fact true, instead launching into a long (and misplaced) argument that the true fact was somehow meaningless.
In their political judgment.
“Fact” checkers do this all the time, and the WaPo version is one of the worst. But never fear: as long as I live and breathe, there will always be the RedState Fact Checker™, to make the obvious calls that Big Media is too partisan to make.
*Previously the Patterico Fact Checker™.
[Cross-posted at RedState and The Jury Talks Back.]
With all due respect, I think you are being unreasonable.
The article does not say “Pence is lying”, it explores the substance of the claim in considerable depth, and contains significant information the average reader might not be aware of. Someone previously unaware of the labor participation statistic would gain important insights about how to think about employment claims (by both parties).
Further, in the explanation of their scale, they explain that 3 Pinocchios means:
Is it unreasonable for a new analysis to point out that a claim may be factually true, but nevertheless misleading? I don’t think so, especially if they say (as the WaPo did) “this is factually true, but misleading”.
Pence was trying to persuade his listeners that the Trump administration has significantly improved the employment picture, and the truth is, the statistic he cited has virtually no relevance to that claim.
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:05 amWe don’t live in a black/white World and no matter how you try to remove the color or shades of grey the more myopic you become. It’s not either facts or lies ad nothing in between..a political judgement giving context to presented facts as though facts and lies live in a vacuum just reveals one- dimensional thinking. If republicans wish to preserve their Party, a sea- change toward The Big Picture will need some support.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:07 am“Well, that’s the news from Lake Wobegon, where all the men are good looking, all the children are above average and all the women just need a little persuadin.”
harkin (bd8145) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:11 amWrong thread Harkin.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:12 amHow can WaPo, the house organ of the Democratic Party, make its fake news “true”, if it does not make the truth a lie?
nk (dbc370) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:13 am4 – seems to be factual.
harkin (bd8145) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:14 amSo the title “Fact Checker” should get Three Pinocchios as being misleading. It should be called “Opinion Checker.”
Bored Lawyer (998177) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:17 amMillennials hands down want a 3rd party.
That’s a fact Harkin. RNC on life suuport:fact
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:17 amremove the Trump feeding tube
Compassionate hospice.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:18 am@Dave:Is it unreasonable for a new analysis to point out that a claim may be factually true, but nevertheless misleading?
No, but it IS unreasonable to conflate true claims with “mostly false” claims, as they say they do.
The most hilarious example is the “True but False” rating they gave Mitt Romney.
As explained in Forbes, the “fact checker” genre conflates (each of which is linked to a fact check in the TFA):
10. That thing you didn’t say isn’t true.
9. That thing you said is true, but it doesn’t matter.
8. That thing you said could maybe be true, but it won’t be soon because things will get better.
7. That thing you said is true but ordinary people will think it’s something false because of your fancy words.
6. That thing you said isn’t true because we trust this one article we Googled more than official reports.
5. That thing you said isn’t true because everything you say is a lie.
4. That thing you said isn’t true because it sounds really awful, unless something similar comes up about the guy we hate.
3. That thing you said was never true, but you deserve wiggle room.
2. That thing you said is false because I have my own truth.
1. That thing you said is true but false.
Frederick (64d4e1) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:20 amI’d love to hear Frederick on alternative facts
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:21 am8 “That’s a fact Harkin. RNC on life suuport:fact”
That’s old news, John Oliver and Rachel Maddow both told me that in early Nov. 2016.
harkin (bd8145) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:22 amAunt Annie’s Pretzel logic.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:22 am12
Have you checked Trumps telemetry recently? Stage 5.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:23 am@Admiral Ben burn:I’d love to hear Frederick on alternative facts
Those are the facts which the media leaves out, because it makes their narrative untenable.
Bye troll.
Frederick (64d4e1) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:24 amModern medicine and Trump enablers can keep a near corpse alive indefinitely.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:25 amFrederick:
Don’t you want to call me out anymore?
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:25 am@Admiral bin Troll:Don’t you want to call me out anymore?
Pointless, you’re calling yourself out. 50% of the comments here are your one-line droppings. Everyone knows what you are. Bye troll.
Frederick (64d4e1) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:30 amIt’s also not true that the media ignored the labor force participation rate under Obama.
This WaPo article from early January looks back on Obama’s employment record:
There follows a graph of the historical participation rate.
The WaPo fact-checker also scrutinized Republican claims about labor-force participation in 2014. One of the claims:
“This Obama economy is holding people back. The workforce participation rate is the lowest that it’s been in 40 years.” – Rep. Lynn Jenkins (R-KS)
The WaPo noted that the statement about labor force participation is true, and represents a longer-term trend that started under Bush 43. In another pretty in-depth discussion of the statistic, they cite research that some of this is certainly due to demographic factors (baby-boomers retiring), but that demographic factors alone do not appear to account for all of the decline.
Their conclusion (which I think is pretty reasonable):
Sadly, applying his own, very tough standards (all that matters is whether the statement is true or false) I am forced to give Patterico’s claim that
Four Pinocchios – it is simply untrue that “Big Media” (i.e. the WaPo) was unaware of the labor force participation rate, or failed to analyze it, while Obama was in office.
🙂
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:31 amOops, I accidentally left out the link to the 2014 Labor Participation fact-check article.
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:34 amFrederick
I encourage you not to throw in the towel. Pretzel logic is your strength.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:36 am3. 4. 6.
Admiral Ben burn (he became an admiral a week or two ago because he discussed something about the Navy or ship problems) thought that 3 was a reference to the fact that Garrison Keillor was fired today by Minnesota Public Radio for alleged improper behavior.
Sammy Finkelman (54fd00) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:44 amJust to return to this:
If your fact-checking includes pointing out misleading claims, why not? It is not called “Truth Checker”.
They are comparing what people say to the facts, and sometimes the facts may include facts that the speaker doesn’t want to talk about because it undermines the misleading claim they are trying to make.
With the exception of Donald Trump, politicians rarely make claims or statements that are outright, pants-on-fire falsehoods, since they care to some degree about the credibility of their future statements.
On the other hand, politicians (and ESPECIALLY Donald Trump) rarely, if ever, acknowledge adverse facts in a way that presents a full or balanced picture. That is what good journalists (and “fact-checking”) do – fill in the rest of the picture.
Of course, this does not automatically lead to a balanced picture either, depending on the honesty, integrity or thoroughness of the journalist. But generally, the more of the picture is filled in, the better it reflects reality.
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:49 amWhen a fact is true, but it doesn’t mean what it is implicitly being used to mean, it doesn’t deserve three Pinocchios. It’s mostly true.
Sammy Finkelman (54fd00) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:50 amIn the same wing of the museum as a former Pennsylvania State Treasurer:
urbanleftbehind (5eecdb) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:50 amhttp://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/11/29/war-crimes-suspect-praljak-claims-to-ingest-poison-dies.html
How can one accept fact check commentary from a commenter who falsely uses the title Admiral? That’s four Pinocchio’s, comrade Ben!.
Rev.Hoagie® (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:53 amNo Sammy. I field promoted myself after a haiku fashion.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:54 amIf he had a streak if logic I would say he is nervous about the Tux(sic) Bill.
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/11/trump-shares-racist-videos-and-tweets-false-conspiracy-theories-all-before-10-am/
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 10:57 amI just did a search at the US Patent Office Website, and neither “Rev.Hoagie” nor “Reverend Hoagie” are registered trademarks, as your signature falsely claims…
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:01 amI also don’t claim to be a fact checker, do I?
Rev.Hoagie® (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:06 amPlus the biblical the fact that Reverend is reserved for the Most High and that ain’t you hoagie.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:06 amfact wrecker
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:07 amHow’s this, Dave? Now stop your whining you little bitch.
Rev.Hoagie (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:08 amIn practical fact Reverend is a title bestowed on one who is ordained and that is me, comrade Ben!.
Rev.Hoagie (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:09 amTo your own peril hoagie
https://www.cgg.org/index.cfm/fuseaction/Library.sr/CT/BQA/k/138/Should-Minister-God-Be-Addressed-as-Reverend-Matthew-238-11.htm
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:11 amI’d like to see them fact check the statement that Trump is literally Hitler–I’m sure they’ll try to sidestep that as well.
ROCHF (877dba) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:12 amHe cant literally be Hitler. He could fake it though. That he’s good at..
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:14 amBetter study those scriptures a little more diligently, hoagie.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:15 amI would say that anything which meets the announced criteria of the fact-checker for a particular rating deserves that rating.
In this case, the WaPo’s rating system explicitly says that “statements which are technically correct (such as based on official government data) but are so taken out of context as to be very misleading” qualify for “Three Pinocchios”.
To take an example that I hope won’t offend our host, would you say that the statement
“A SWAT team was dispatched to Patterico’s home after 911 was informed that he had murdered his family.”
… with no additional context, should be classified in fact-check as
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:17 amGeez. Lighten up, Francis.
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:19 amYou’re kidding, right comrade?
Rev.Hoagie (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:21 am41 THAT’S A FACT, JACK!
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:22 amI’m serious and so should you be.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:22 amApostasy is serious.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:23 amI denounce myself for not realizing you were teasing me about the ®, Dave. I know damn well you know it is a joke so I will get no beet vodka tonight. I’m beginning to think like a Kulak, I may need reeducation.
Rev.Hoagie (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:27 amTea Party started small too.
Britain First is a minor political movement in the UK with an openly anti-Islam, anti-immigration agenda and an estimated 1,000 supporters. It is led by Paul Golding, 35, a former official in the now-defunct far-right British National party, and Jayda Fransen, 31, who was this month charged by police in Northern Ireland for hate speech at a rally outside Belfast City Hall in August.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/nov/29/britain-first-anti-islam-group-that-bills-itself-as-a-patriotic-movement
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:28 amreeducation.
Or, just education.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:30 am🙂
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:30 amApostasy? Where did you get that from? You just troll around and throw sh!t out don’t ya? Well, I got a doctor appointment so bye.
Rev.Hoagie (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:31 amIt’s a good thing for hoagie God watches out for fools and drunkards.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:33 am39. Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:17 am
I don’t think that:
qualifies for that. That definitionn means the statstic itself is very misleading.
Here the statistic is not just technically true, it is true in all ways. What is misleading is what that is supposed to man. It may be misleading in that it implies that the labor force participation rate is the highest its ever been.
Now, this goes on all the time when administrations cite economic statistics. If the Washington Post wants to criticize this kind of thing, it needs another category.
Now the other one:
I’m not sure that’s right. I think the call purportedly came from the murderer, not from a third party, and didn’t give a name. I am not sure it actually said the murders had been completed. So it’s mostly true.
You’d have to add additional context or claims to make that misleading. Without that, no one would assume any murders actually happened ather than this being extremely illegal and potentially dangerous harassment. (if it did happen, why is he still blogging here, and not in jail, and why is he still working for the DA? It’s not Etowah County, you know. I mean the Etiwah County, or is it Elowah County, of Gloria Allred’s imagination.)
Sammy Finkelman (54fd00) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:49 ama couple of neat photos here
happyfeet (a037ad) — 11/29/2017 @ 11:57 amThe information that Pence cites is true, but on the other hand, refer to the graph here:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/employed-persons
“There are more Americans working today than ever before in American history.” has been true for pretty much any given month since mid 2014 (the point at which full recovery from the great recession occurred).
So, why is he touting something that’s utterly unremarkable?
Also I appreciate Patterico mentioning the Labor Participation Rate, because a lot of the usual suspects who couldn’t shut up about it before are oddly silent now.
Davethulhu (fab944) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:02 pm“God watches out for fools and drunkards.”
Mary Jo K begs to differ that’s its a good thing.
harkin (92ce59) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:04 pmIn 2016, Trump claimed the unemployment rate could be 40%. The numbers have changed very little since then.
On at least 19 occasions, he claimed the unemployment statistics were fake, phony, fictitious, or wrong.
That was before he could tout them to make himself look good, of course.
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:19 pmNot a SWAT team and not 911, so false.
Patterico (572840) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:21 pmThe O’Keefe sting stings deep.
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:24 pmI stand corrected. But the point I was trying to make is distinct from my own imperfect knowledge of those details.
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:25 pmReverend,
Our current trolls haven’t been around long enough to know your story and in a way I’m glad because it would be wasted on them. Thanks for the kind words the other day. Didn’t get a chance to thank you for the support.
P.S. Dave leaping to the defense of another tool of the left. There he goes again.
NJRob (c191ed) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:35 pmhttp://3.bp.blogspot.com/_dO9bg4_tViM/SpVQ_c6-MGI/AAAAAAAAEAM/brdHxucnPmA/s400/Kennedycar.jpg
mg (60b0f7) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:36 pm@59 How is Dave wrong? and lol “tool of the left”.
Davethulhu (fab944) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:39 pm. Dave leaping to the defense of another tool of the left. There he goes again.
Bulloney. They were messing with each other. You must be from Newark.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:42 pmTake this job and shove it!
In the space of last 48 hours, Donald Trump has:
Retweeted three anti-Muslim videos from a far-right group based in Britain.
Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:52 pmSent two tweets not only using the firing of NBC’s Matt Lauer to bash so-called “fake news” but also to spread innuendo about NBC News head Andy Lack and “Morning Joe” anchor Joe Scarborough.
Called Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas” at an event honoring Navajo code talkers.
Not denied repeated reports that he now believes the “Access Hollywood” tape is somehow fake and that President Barack Obama may not have been born in this country.
Attacked congressional Democratic leaders and insisted he would blame them for a government shutdown.
Delivered a statement about North Korea’s latest missile launch.
Spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping over the phone.
Hey, it must be Happy Hour in NJ – Rob is back!
Dave (445e97) — 11/29/2017 @ 1:08 pm=yawn= The Big Dick and Ziggy the Spinner challenged the credibility of the Washington Post, too.
That went well, didn’t it: “Therefore, I shall resign the Presidency effective at noon, tomorrow.” – Richard M. Nixon [R] August 8, 1974
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/29/2017 @ 1:13 pm“….I, and other reporters , have been aware of several women who have come forward privately in the past few months …even before Weinstein. They weren’t willing to go public though…they were terrified of Matt.”
Why should any women be terrified at NBC? It’s not like it’s a network that would ignore the war on women and spike an expose of a power man in media…….
Oh wait
https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-nbc-killed-ronan-farrows-weinstein-expose
harkin (92ce59) — 11/29/2017 @ 1:29 pm@66. =yawn= The conservative whine:
James Woods
DCSCA (797bc0) — 11/29/2017 @ 1:53 pm✔
@RealJamesWoods
Are big corporations using these unsubstantiated allegations as an easy way to dump expensive star contracts? http://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/2017/11/29/nbc-announces-today-show-co-host-matt-lauer-fired-due-to-inappropriate-sexual-behavior-at-work.html …
67, dude might have a point, Amber Tamblyn assertions notwithstanding.
urbanleftbehind (fc08fe) — 11/29/2017 @ 2:10 pmYou have to subtract the illegal aliens before making any claim.
jcurtis (44c64f) — 11/29/2017 @ 2:27 pmfact checker = editorial writer
mg (60b0f7) — 11/29/2017 @ 3:18 pm63. Admiral Ben burn (b3d5ab) — 11/29/2017 @ 12:52 pm
Donald Trump:
It;s fair to criticize NBC News.
Although it appeared to be very sudden – Matt Lauer hosts NBC coverage of the Thanksgiving Day parade, and was scheduled to anchor coverage of the Christmas tree lighting at Rockefeller Center, which they do every year, they knew about this for some time. Variety was researching this for two months and also the New York Times. But one woman just went public and they reacted immediately – just like so many corporations do.
They had a number of complaints from people who did not go public, and also Matt Lauer didn’t just act, he talked uncomfortably to people, asking people about their sex lives and discussing which co-anchor(s) he would want to sleep with.
Called Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren “Pocahontas” at an event honoring Navajo code talkers.
Sammy Finkelman (e70ce9) — 11/29/2017 @ 3:26 pmNot denied repeated reports that he now believes the “Access Hollywood” tape is somehow fake and that President Barack Obama may not have been born in this country.
Attacked congressional Democratic leaders and insisted he would blame them for a government shutdown.
Delivered a statement about North Korea’s latest missile launch.
65… you will always have Dick Nixon to kick around, ASPCA.
Tippecanoe and Tyler too!
Colonel Haiku (63965c) — 11/29/2017 @ 3:30 pmDave,
You’re already wasted at 1pm? Why am I not surprised.
NJRob (c191ed) — 11/29/2017 @ 3:44 pmI’m going to have to search, but my memory is that Obama did use the same type of claim about the number of people working.
SPQR (a3a747) — 11/29/2017 @ 7:06 pmU6 hasn’t been this good since July 2001:
http://portalseven.com/employment/unemployment_rate_u6.jsp
narciso (d1f714) — 11/29/2017 @ 7:11 pmLooking over other numbers on balance are pretty good
https://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
narciso (d1f714) — 11/29/2017 @ 7:26 pmMy problem is I haven’t believed a word coming from the CBO since 2001. Including U6. The government has been cooking the books for decades and Quantitative Easing has lifted the cooking to Wolfgang Puck level. They’re not just cooking the books any more, they’re Gourmet cooking the books. There isn’t a number, a statistic, a demographic, a projection or a ratio I believe for one minute hasn’t been manipulated for political purposes. And not by the administration, by the Deep State. When a government can’t or won’t announce a number regarding waste, fraud and abuse within 50 billion dollars it seems to me they just don’t want to. And when a government didn’t pass a budget for years how does it quote floating figures? And when a government is wrong on projections 100% of the time what is it’s information really worth. Nothing, that’s what. For example where is the sexual harassment fund located in the budget? How about all the money spent paying federal lawyers to fight state and city lawyers?
Rev.Hoagie (6bbda7) — 11/29/2017 @ 7:28 pmA fair point, certainly the standard unemployment calculation in flawed.
narciso (d1f714) — 11/29/2017 @ 7:31 pmthefederalist.com/2017/11/29/calling-pence-a-liar-while-protecting-warren-is-why-people-hate-media/#.Wh9NbT_Y1ZE.twitter
narciso (d1f714) — 11/29/2017 @ 7:55 pmGreat (and relevant) article on presidents and the economy at National Review:
Of Presidents and Economies
Dave (445e97) — 11/30/2017 @ 2:31 am