Patterico's Pontifications

8/4/2017

Who Can Take Credit for Today’s Solid Jobs Report?

Filed under: General — Patterico @ 9:00 am



The Labor Department issued a solid jobs report today. 209,000 jobs were added to the economy, beating expectations. Unemployment is at 4.3%, a solid number.

(Of course, the unemployment rate is a virtually meaningless figure, because it doesn’t count people who have dropped out of the workforce entirely. The labor force participation rate, a far more meaningful figure, is at 62.9%, still near its 38-year low. But nobody will talk about that today. Republicans who remembered to look at that number in the Obama years will suddenly forget about it under Trump. And Democrats have never cared about that number.)

Partisans on both sides will of course reflexively claim that their respective Presidents deserve credit for today’s good news. Obama partisans will note that the unemployment rate represents a continuation of its downward trend since 2011. Trump partisans will say that Trump is president now and deserves the credit for what happens today.

The truth is, a single man is not responsible for the performance of the economy. But when that man is a U.S. president, he can have some effect.

Obama took what should have been a strong recovery after a bad recession, and turned it into a tepid one with the job killer ObamaCare. Full-time positions were decimated and the urge to build back was squashed.

Trump, for all the chaos of his White House, and his legislative fecklessness (notably his inability to move Congress on ObamaCare repeal), has nevertheless done one thing right: he has begun to reduce burdensome regulations on businesses. The expectation that this will continue, plus the prospect of tax reform, no doubt has a positive effect on the outlook for big business.

Trump partisans should be careful about taking credit for the economy today, however. We are in a clear asset bubble — one almost as obvious as the stock market bubble of the 1990s and the real estate bubble of the 2000s. The problem is that the current bubble encompasses both. Meanwhile, Trump is doing nothing about our massive looming government debt bubble, which will precipitate the biggest economic disaster of them all.

Nobody even talks about the debt any more.

A more immediate threat is the Fed’s decision to begin unwinding its balance sheet — a move that typically results in a recession. Whether that recession hits before or after 2020 will have a lot to do with whether Trump gets re-elected.

But hey. Enjoy the good news in the meantime.

[Cross-posted at RedState and The Jury Talks Back.]

85 Responses to “Who Can Take Credit for Today’s Solid Jobs Report?”

  1. Unemployment is around 8% in reality. We’re still using the fudged numbers from the Obama administration.

    NJRob (7f4bec)

  2. There’s also a massive personal debt bubble which includes, credit, housing and student debt.

    It will all unravel and the left will claim that the solution is more government control. Even though they created the problem.

    NJRob (7f4bec)

  3. “….the left will claim the solution is more govt. control”

    And more govt. debt, much more.

    God forbid that Trump should “save the economy” the way Obama did. The only people who made out were public unions and the banks while everyone else just enlarged their IRS IOU.

    But I also have no illusions that the Republicans will get US debt under control.

    harkin (a49e60)

  4. we’re in a real estate bubble too

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  5. oh i see where you encompass both

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  6. Nobody even talks about the debt any more.

    cowardly spendpig John McCain wants to triple defense spending while going full speed ahead on doing that yummy slurpy obamacare all up in it

    plus start a few more wars and open the borders on top of that

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  7. Is Fearless Leader any better than McCain? When was the last time he talked about reducing the debt? How much spending does he want add on with hinting at where the revenue will come from?

    kishnevi (bb03e6)

  8. every time Mr. President Trump asserts our economy should be growing at 3% or better he’s talking about reducing the debt

    you’ll notice cowardpig John McCain never talks about growing the economy

    what he wants to grow are the numbers of his luckless ignorant constituents what are on obamacare so they can die in filthy neglectful government hospitals like our veterans, to the everlasting glory of his patron George Soros

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  9. We are in a clear asset bubble — one almost as obvious as the stock market bubble of the 1990s and the real estate bubble of the 2000s. The problem is that the current bubble encompasses both. Meanwhile, Trump is doing nothing about our massive looming government debt bubble, which will precipitate the biggest economic disaster of them all. — Patterico

    That’s what I’m talkin’ ’bout.

    AZ Bob (f7a491)

  10. 8. happyfeet (28a91b) — 8/4/2017 @ 10:39 am

    every time Mr. President Trump asserts our economy should be growing at 3% or better he’s talking about reducing the debt

    The total size of the debt in future years. It won’t actually go down as a proprotion of GDP except with inflation, which reduced the post World War II debt.

    What you really mean is reducing the deficit or maybe the Social Security shortfall. I don’t know how much Donald Trump understands that, but that’s the position of Paul Ryan I think.

    If Trump did understand that, he’d want more immigration – at least more skilled immigration, not freezing the numbers of skilled immigrants and reducing other kinds. But it’s actually all politics with him, and innumerate.

    you’ll notice cowardpig John McCain never talks about growing the economy

    I don’t think he’s too good on economics. He proved that actually in Sept. 2008. Jack Kemp used to talk about growing the economy.

    Sammy Finkelman (02a146)

  11. Who can take credit for today’s solid jobs report?

    The 22nd Amendment. It’s not that Trump is President; it is that Obama is not.

    nk (dbc370)

  12. It’s not a bubble until things start popping. Until then it’s “good times”.

    Kevin M (752a26)

  13. nk, I would really have liked to see Obama fighting Hillary for the nomination again.

    Kevin M (752a26)

  14. I vote that happyfeet has to abjure pejoratives for a week. I doubt he can.

    Kevin M (752a26)

  15. Good luck on that, Kevin.

    Simon Jester (bcb31a)

  16. I disagree its a bubble. Those are fed artifically, and when the life source is cut off, the bubble bursts.

    The closest you can come to artificial support for the economy right now is the low interest rates. The fed has pumped money into economy, so there is tremendous liquidity that must be wrung out at some point.

    But the real estate bubble of 2008 was the result of the prime rate loan scams that put people in houses they could not afford. When the bell ultimately tolled for those loans, they went bad, the homes were foreclosed on, and the excess inventory flooded the market, cratering housing prices.

    At the same time inventory swelled with foreclosed properties, you had dramatically tightened lending requirements put in place, which only increased the problem by reducing demand for the higher inventory.

    That situation doesn’t exist in the housing market today. Increased demand isn’t the result of easy mortgage money — you simply have a stronger economy which provides more income to potential homeowners.

    The stock market is raging based on cheap money which makes expansion easier for business, and the promises of less regulation of industry by the government, and lower corporate tax rates.

    shipwreckedcrew (fb418b)

  17. I have often adjured happyfeet to abjure from hiding his light under a bushel of bullsh!t but I am a voice crying in the wilderness, a brazen cymbal, a sounding gong, a prophet without honor in his own laptop.

    nk (dbc370)

  18. Real estate bubble, stock market bubble, higher education bubble, credit card bubble — we’re the goddamned featured number of the Lawrence Welk Show with all of our bubbles.

    JVW (42615e)

  19. in future i hope to do less preservatives on people but they have to start behaving more better first

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  20. or, you know

    go caput

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  21. this hoochie here’s a joy to read and all she’s talking about is cooking squash

    Cooking vegetables to total tenderness — until, some would say, they’re done — isn’t the American way with the produce of summer. Braising and stewing and sweating are techniques we turn to in cooler months, when spending time at the stove feels more respite than duty. In the hot months of August, our inclination is toward the salad bowl and the grill, for summoning sensations of taste and texture that contrast, rather than align, with the summer heat and humidity.

    she really sells it huh

    i’m a try her way since it’s cooled off here so much it seems a waste not to heat up the kitchen with something

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  22. After Obama’s 8 years of a collapsing labor force participation rate (65.9 in November 2008 to 62.6 in November 2016), the rate has stabilized under Trump. This is good news. See BLS table.

    It should also be noted that the participation rate lags general economic conditions – the decision to enter or exit the labor market is a slow one. These charts are helpful.

    The stock market, on the other hand, tends to be a leading indicator. The stock market is at record highs.

    ThOR (c9324e)

  23. As a lagging indicator, one shouldn’t expect an immediate turnaround in the labor participation rate – that’s why it won’t be emphasized by anyone other than anti-Trump partisans.

    ThOR (c9324e)

  24. THoR, the participation rate has been at or close to 62.9 , the most recent figure on that table (for last month)since December 2013, the main exception being August to December 2015, when it averaged 62.5, more or less. It even hit 63.0 in March 2016. It was already stable when Obama left office. Trump’s job is to raise it and keep it raised.

    Your point about it being a lagging indicator is correct. I just disagree with the idea it only stabilized in the last half year.

    kishnevi (98ea1b)

  25. Some say “stabilized,” some say “bottomed out”. . .

    JVW (42615e)

  26. It’s Trump. If Obama or Hillary were in the White House the economy would still be on suicide watch, joblessness would be increasing, more illegals would be working under the table, and more Americans would be on food stamps.

    But, Trump is President, and the economy is gaining strength daily, Americans are working again, illegal boarder crossings are down over 50%, and food stamp recipients are at levels not seen in a decade.

    So, it’s Trump, he’s our man. May he live long enough to see our nation strong, free, and great again.

    ropelight (eaa946)

  27. i hope he lives forever and that when he’s done here he’ll walk among the stars and that his journey will be as blessed and joyful as the one we traveled together in the brief time we were allowed to walk in his Grace

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  28. Trump has exposed the republican party as a sham. His greatest legacy will be ending this group of fraudulent egos.

    mg (31009b)

  29. Americans know the numbers mean little; the jobs mean everything.

    “‘It’s a recession when your neighbor loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.” – Harry S. Truman
    _________

    Today’s Beldar the Bitter ‘Watergate, Watergate, Watergate’ Words of Wonder:

    “Far from trying to hide the facts, my effort throughout has been to discover the facts—and to lay those facts before the appropriate law enforcement authorities so that justice could be done and the guilty dealt with.” – President Nixon lying to the American people about Watergate; televised speech, August 15, 1973

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  30. @28. Banana Republicanism.

    DCSCA (797bc0)

  31. Remarkable, isn’t it, that a year ago, according to Donald Trump:

    the employment numbers were all fake
    the real unemployment rate was 42%
    the stock market was in an “ugly bubble”

    and then, literally overnight, the exact same numbers morphed into an economic paradise!

    As Patrick says, the truth is more complicated than either of Trump’s self-serving lies.

    Dave (445e97)

  32. watching the republican party stupid itself to death is awesome

    mg (31009b)

  33. Trump is no republican or democrat.
    He is just Trump.

    mg (31009b)

  34. Cheap shots aside, here’s news that we should all be happy about: Communication Regarding Intent To Withdraw From Paris Agreement

    ThOR (c9324e)

  35. @34

    he is open to re-engaging in the Paris Agreement if the United States can identify terms that are more favorable to it, its businesses, its workers, its people, and its taxpayers.

    The terms of the Paris Agreement required the US to do nothing more than file reports and draft non-binding plans. After saying we quit, the announcement then basically goes on to say we will do all that anyway…

    Dave (445e97)

  36. mg@28

    Great comment!

    It is difficult to overstate the importance of Trump’s unmasking of the Republican Party. I appreciated Cruz’ comments in the pre-Trump era, but the public demonstration of sleaze that Trump has provoked is breathtaking in a way Cruz’ words were not.

    Some left the Republican Party over Trump. The true nature of the Republican Party, as revealed by Trump, seems far better justification. What a repulsive lot they are.

    ThOR (c9324e)

  37. harvardtrash ted’s been cowardly and silent in the face of a coup that is also silent, because he is a coward, and selectively quiet, particularly when confronted with an unamerican coup, that is also very much on the quiet side, like he is, vis-à-vis this situation (the coup)

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  38. There us certainly some of that thorn, when trump puts firth a very conservative bomb director like mulvaneym

    narciso (d1f714)

  39. hot tair.com/headlines/archives/2017/08/trump-anything-win-nevertrumpers

    narciso (d1f714)

  40. Yes, I agree, Cruz should speak up.

    I find it difficult to call Cruz “harvardtrash” because of what I’ve read about how he was detested by his harvardtrash classmates and professors.

    ThOR (c9324e)

  41. Pikach hates everybody specially after his rhubarb cupcake, they would make the same objevtionabout Nixon who was vicar president at the same Cruz is now and his was a duke sherpskib

    narciso (d1f714)

  42. i don’t… just cause of he validated the whole ersatz harvardtrash “mystique” by going to that sick vile and squalid school, at no small cost to god knows who paid for it (i’m prone to imagining he’s still paying off his student loans)

    going there was a choice, and he chose poorly

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  43. i don’t hate everybody i like that mongolian guy what sings about amarillo

    he made my whole day yesterday

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  44. here

    him’s good pikachu

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  45. going there was a choice, and he chose poorly

    Waiting for you to post your resume, for comparison.

    Dave (445e97)

  46. you can’t even handle my resume

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  47. Harvard was a brilliant choice.

    What could be more delightful than a Southern Baptist sneaking into the Cathedral of the Elite and outsmarting them? He was a one-man fifth column!

    ThOR (c9324e)

  48. i just go the other way

    it’s the exact same principle why i don’t subscribe to cable

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  49. Would it be OK if I cross-posted this article to WriterBeat.com? There is no fee, I’m simply trying to add more content diversity for our community and I liked what you wrote. I’ll be sure to give you complcete credit as the author. If “OK” please let me know via email.

    Autumn
    AutumnCote@WriterBeat.com

    Autumn Cote (034221)

  50. It was entirely clear that DJT’s election was a significant catalyst for the Dow to jump. Given his rhetoric and complete GOP control federally, this was a rational response.

    What I do not understand is how the Durable Goods index jumped over SIX POINTS in June (latest month reported). My guess is that capital spending had been drastically put off for so many years that it is basically inevitable that such investments can no longer be devalued. I do know that the fed policy changes mean that hoarding cash is no longer the slam dunk posture to maintain. Neither of these explanations have a thing in the world to do with DJT. Then again, these are not proven out.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  51. Ugh. “…can no longer be DELAYED.” Apologies.

    Ed from SFV (3400a5)

  52. I do not understand is how the Durable Goods index jumped over SIX POINTS in June

    maybe we’re sending a LOT of shiny new Boeing aircraft to Iran so they can do genocide on Israel to the everlasting glory of sleazy jew-hating US Army general HR McMaster

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  53. trump can. he halting the free trade disaster.

    djt (8387fb)

  54. Qe kept the bubble inflated, the lack of congressional action may pop the bubble

    http://www.townandcountrymag.com/society/politics/news/g3303/melania-trump-first-lady-style

    narciso (d1f714)

  55. now wouldn’t an actual leak, actually involve real information,

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/08/04/nyt-reporter-claims-terrorists-cheer-when-fbi-stops-illegal-leaks/

    narciso (d1f714)

  56. So what would this do? http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/04/trump-homeowner-tax-benefit-241328

    Admittedly, the discussion on mortgage interest sounds so 2005 to me anyway.

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  57. Did Trump have much to do with the employment rate? Quite possibly not. But this is the flipped of the fact that he will catch the blame for anything bad that happens economically, so in a weird way it’s only fair.

    Bush caught the blame for the bursting of the housing bubble. It was the inevitable outcome of a piece of Liberal idiocy dating back to the 1980’s; pressure was brought to bear on lenders to shift their lending criteria until there were more brown mortgage holders. It was an imbecilic idea, and I recall economists from all over the political spectrum saying – in effect – “we hope you like bailing out mortgage lenders, because you’re going to have to.”. Bush, in fact, made a couple of attempts to look into the approaching train-wreck (though how seriously may be debated) and was opposed almost hysterically by the usual Democrat suspects.

    So, when some Democrat scheme for enriching their cronies blows up spectacularly, Trump will get the blame. It’s only fair if he gets credit for GOOD stuff that he didn’t do, too.

    C. S. P. Schofield (99bd37)

  58. I have to admit Wall St has surprised me a little. They used to abhor uncertainty but now they see an opportunity to squeeze more shekels before the barn door is closed. The only certainty is avarice

    Ben burn (ab90f6)

  59. “Admittedly, the discussion on mortgage interest sounds so 2005 to me anyway.”

    It’s vintage Tea Party!

    Ben burn (ab90f6)

  60. No, that predates the tea party and was always used as a selling point to should-be renters, as in “you can afford because you can claim it on your taxes”. The Tea Party was a response to the muliple bailouts later in the decade and also midwifed by the opposition to immigration reform.

    urbanleftbehind (847a06)

  61. IYO,what percentage of Trump supporters are Tea Party?

    Ben burn (ab90f6)

  62. (Former*tea party as well)

    Ben burn (ab90f6)

  63. Whether that recession hits before or after 2020 will have a lot to do with whether Trump gets re-elected.

    A recession also has a lot to do with whether or not people can put food on their tables and clothes on their backs and roofs over their heads. Which do you suppose matters more to Trump – people’s well-being or that he gets the credit for their well-being?

    (Think carefully about your answer before you guess that Trump cares more for The Little Guy just because he said so. For a so-called Alpha Male, Trump sure does spend an awful lot of time on the twitter whining and blubbering about how sad it is that pathetic losers keep being so mean and unfair to him. And for a great deal-maker who was going to show the bad deal-makers how winning is done, he sure did seem to drop the ball in his dealing with Congress on the Obamacare embiggening. So maybe you can’t judge Trump by what he says when his actions show the complete opposite.)

    Jerryskids (3308c1)

  64. Because .much of the congress is deep in the swamp with obamacare with taxes being where they currently are, the travismockasham of this investigation while the critics if the Iran deal are purged his only defenders in the bureaucracy?

    narciso (d1f714)

  65. The senate finds it effucavoues to punt ob tax cuts, honestly I don’t know what planet they are on.

    narciso (d1f714)

  66. dailycaller.com/2016/07/02/former-dod-official-warns-america-is-on-the-wrong-track-to-fighting-war-on-terror-video/?utm_source=site-share

    narciso (d1f714)

  67. You could Ted Stevens about that, in a sense:
    legalinsurrection.com/2017/08/joy-reid-absurd-of-dershowitz-to-suggest-dc-racial-composition-means-grand-jury-stacked-against-trump

    narciso (d1f714)

  68. @60 Ben Burn

    Do you invest your money with Lucas Clay?

    Pinandpuller (7df6fb)

  69. 63, it’s not a natural transition, since many are on the rightmost point of the NeverTrump spectrum. I’d wager it’s 40% solid and maybe 40% reluctant/closet trump support among former c.2009 tea party.

    urbanleftbehind (bd9a62)

  70. For a lot of Teas it goes like this:

    1. The system is crap. WE MUST HAVE CHANGE
    2. Trump is change.
    3. WE MUST HAVE TRUMP

    Kevin M (752a26)

  71. Meet the new boss…

    Kevin M (752a26)

  72. My instincts based on anecdotal blog surveys indicates that’s about right. But the light passing between trumpets and the refugees seems minimal. They seem to object to his methodology rather than objectives.

    Ben burn (ab90f6)

  73. My bad-Lucius Clay

    The old man lived in the Wooley Swamp

    Way back in Booger Woods

    And he never did much harm in the world

    He just never did no good

    People didn’t think too much of him

    They all thought he acted funny

    The old man didn’t care about people anyway

    All he cared about was his money

    He’d stuff it all down into mason jars

    And bury it all around

    But on certain nights if the moon was right

    He’d dig it up out of the ground

    Then he’d pour it all out on the floor of his shack

    And he’d run his fingers through it

    Yeah Lucius Clay was a greedy old man

    That’s all there ever was to it

    The Ballad of Wall Street-Ben Burn

    Pinandpuller (7df6fb)

  74. 4. We must change Trump.

    Pinandpuller (7df6fb)

  75. Pat should have a piece oh this. The battle of Saraghari.

    http://www.sikhiwiki.org/index.php/Battle_of_Saragarhi

    Saragarhi is the incredible story of 21 men of the 36th Sikh Regiment (currently the 4th Sikh Regiment) who gave up their lives in devotion to their duty. This battle, like many others fought by the Sikhs, highlights the heroic action by a small detachment of Sikh soldiers against heavy odds. This encounter took place on 12 September 1897 in the Tirah region of North-West Frontier Province (now in Pakistan, which then formed part of British India). In keeping with the tradition of the Sikh Army, they fought to the death rather than surrender. …

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  76. Ayoh ghorkali!

    Here come the Ghurkas.

    Thank fu***ing god for the ghurkas.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  77. Yes they were Siikh.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  78. Steve 57

    Bahut shukria.

    Pinandpuller (f0fa20)

  79. You are sincerely and very welcome.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  80. Sincerely the 800lb gorilla in the Indian ocean.

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  81. Even the 800lb gorilla needs to pull into port time and again,

    Steve57 (0b1dac)

  82. that gorilla sounds like he’s kind of a fat-ass

    happyfeet (28a91b)

  83. j’adore les gens qui veulent partager

    voyance email (3e372e)


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