Imagine Peace in the Middle East
In the New York Times, Benny Morris writes:
Demography, if not Arab victory in battle, offers the recipe for such a dissolution [of the Jewish state]. The birth rates for Israeli Arabs are among the highest in the world, with 4 or 5 children per family (as opposed to the 2 or 3 children per family among Israeli Jews).
If present trends persist, Arabs could constitute the majority of Israel’s citizens by 2040 or 2050.
I know Benny Morris is controversial, but I don’t think this particular demographic assertion is — I think I’ve read it more than once elsewhere. (And even if this assertion is disputed, assume it’s true for the sake of discussion.)
It seems to me that in the best-case scenario — a cessation of fighting, and probably a two-state solution — this fundamental threat to Israel’s existence qua Israel remains. Even if — maybe especially if — peace breaks out tomorrow, how does Israel remain a democratic, Jewish state?
In other words, as the Times’ profile of the also-controversial Avraham Burg asks: What kind of future is there for Israeli Arabs?
Well, I think Tzipi Livni came up with the only reasonable answer, should there be a third state inside the Palestinian Mandate.
That said, Pournelle and I have batted around this one before, and I think that it’s not a significant problem.
Comment by Joel Rosenberg — 1/13/2009 @ 2:09 pm
What kind of future is there for Israeli Arabs?
The answer is that if there is true peace, they become more assimilated, more prosperous, and more cosmopolitan — and their birth rate drops. A drop in birthrate always happens to groups which become more prosperous.
Comment by Steven Den Beste — 1/13/2009 @ 4:10 pm
A drop in birthrate always happens to groups which become more prosperous.
And can afford prettier camels.
Comment by nk — 1/13/2009 @ 5:04 pm
Joel Rosenberg: Forgive me, I’m not sure I follow. Are you saying Livni’s “only reasonable answer” is that there should be a third state inside the Palestinian Mandate, or are you saying Livni came up with the “only reasonable answer” if there is a third state inside the Palestinian Mandate?
Steven Den Beste: That’s an interesting point, but what if, for whatever reaon, that doesn’t happen?
nk: I could be wrong about this, but my instinctive reaction is to take your comment as kinda racist.
Comment by Not Rhetorical — 1/13/2009 @ 6:00 pm
Not Rhetorical,
From my link at #3 above:
RIYADH: This time of year, when the weather is still cool and comfortable and the desert is strewn with flowering plants and shrubs, a man’s thoughts often turn to his camels.
Indeed, says Fowzan al-Madr, a camel breeder from the Kharj region southeast of Riyadh, there are few pleasures in life greater than a long, late-winter afternoon in the desert in the company of beautiful camels.
To the uninitiated, it might seem that the beauty of a camel is definitely in the eye of the beholder. Actually, camel aesthetics are evaluated here according to a series of precise and exacting standards.
“It’s just like judging a beautiful girl,” said Madr. “You look for big eyes, long lashes and a long neck.”
Comment by nk — 1/13/2009 @ 6:24 pm
And some more:
Back at the souq al jamel, Haza al-Shammari, a camel breeder from Ha’il in northern Saudi Arabia, agreed.
“Camels are just like humans,” Shammari explained. “They love and hate just like humans. That’s why you have to bring them up very gently.
“See this one?” he asked, pointing to a white female camel with long eyelashes and a calm gaze.
“She isn’t married yet, this one,” Shammari said. “She’s still a virgin. Look at the black eyes, the soft fur. The fur is trimmed so it’s short and clean, just like a girl going to a party.”
Suddenly, Shammari grabbed the white camel’s chin and kissed her square on the mouth.
Comment by nk — 1/13/2009 @ 6:32 pm
NR, speaking as an engineer, I know that making any kind of prediction 40 years ahead is foolhardy. There’s absolutely no way to know what will happen in 2050, there or here or anywhere else. It’s pointless to think about it.
Comment by Steven Den Beste — 1/13/2009 @ 9:37 pm
I read the story, nk — but I’m not sure what a couple of Saudi camel breeders have to do with Palestinians. And I wonder how hard it’d be to find some mainstream American commentary on horses that sounded similar. I’d try to Google it to prove my point, but I’m afraid of the porn hits I’d get. Which kind of … proves my point.
Look, I’m trying not to be overly judgmental here, but your comment still strikes me as racist. And your follow-up quotes make it worse, to my mind, not better; your original comment seemed like a sort of a facile joke someone might toss out — social lubricant, maybe — but by elaborating, that explanation becomes less supportable.
I’m sorry if I sound sanctimonious. In real life I’d probably never have said anything. But the comments are just sitting there in cyber-forever, so I thought they called for a response.
Comment by Not Rhetorical — 1/13/2009 @ 9:58 pm
The situation over there is nowhere near stable enough to wonder about 30 years from now. TO wit:
Gaza: population as dense as Hong Kong with no infrastructure. Not much good can come from taht.
West Bank: Corrupt PA, territory riddled with settlements, bad economy in the best of times and all trends in decline.
Israel: Jews not going anywhere, with 100 H-bombs and impressive military. Ahd yes, unfavorable demographics.
Islam: One unstable nuclear state, one radical state getting nukes, and 30 years from now maybe 2 or 3 more. Someone uses one on Israel and 100 H-bombs go off in response.
Seems like demographics in Israel are pretty manageable by comparison.
Comment by Kevin Murphy — 1/13/2009 @ 10:00 pm
Steven Den Beste, I guess you’re not familiar with my love of the college bull session! : )
But seriously: Do you think, then, that Israel would simply have to wait for if/when the Arab population neared a majority before dealing with the issue? Or do you not perceive it as an issue? Or … ?
[Ah, the beauty of admin privileges: I get to correct my misspellings!]
Comment by Not Rhetorical — 1/13/2009 @ 10:02 pm
Once the Iranians get the bomb, and use it, we won’t have to worry about the future of the Palestinians,
for there won’t be any to worry about.
Comment by AD — 1/14/2009 @ 10:32 am
Kevin’s got a point… most Israelis will be grateful for their nation to survive long enough for the demographic problem to matter.
They are surrounded by baaaaaddddd stuff.
I think if those Israeli Arabs are able to live in peace with the Jews for 50 years, then it doesn’t matter who is the more populous. Someone has to be the majority. So long as Israel remains and absolute certain place Jews can immigrate to, and secure from invasion, then I guess its mission isn’t abandoned.
And I always thought it would have been more practical to start a Jewish state along the African coast (I guess the same problems with whoever was displaced would be an issue unless they found a rare empty patch). Why can’t there just be a Zionist 2.0?
Comment by Joco — 1/15/2009 @ 1:47 am
Arab citizens of Israel have unlimited freedom to emigrate. They don’t excercise it. Some of them identify with the Palestinian cause. But most of them know what life would be like for them under Arab rule. They need only look at the way their neighbors live.
Comment by Stu707 — 1/15/2009 @ 4:47 pm