This is not a defense of the New York Times. This is not a defense of the Los Angeles Times. This is not a defense of the United Nations. This is not a commentary on the conflict in the Middle East (though it might come to seem like it, toward the bottom.) And this is not an attack on Patterico.
While this blog contains, I think, a respectable proportion of solid thinkers — including commenters — the tendency of the form to degenerate into a circle jerk is disturbing. Most recent case in point: Patterico’s post on death tolls. He points out that the New York Times says the U.N. has estimated that a fourth of the dead in Gaza have been civilians, and that the Los Angeles Times claims the U.N. estimates 400 of 700 killed have been civilians.
He asks a reasonable enough question: “Is 400/700 anything like one-fourth? I’m no math whiz, but I’m thinking the answer is ‘no.’ So what gives?”
In the comments section, that reasonable-enough question blossoms poisonously into an opportunity to opine that:
- It’s either confirmation that the U.N. is, as we all know, “a bunch of idiots,” or evidence that the “liberal idiots” in the media got it “wrong in their reporting” — “Either way, IDIOTS!!!!”
- “It must be Diplomatic UN Math, also known as DUM.”
- “Apparently the UN just makes up statistics depending on what day of the week it is.”
- “What do you expect from the liberal media, ACCURACY? or ‘equality’ & ‘fairness’?”
And that’s with only six commenters weighing in with seven comments, at the time of this writing. Only one person ventures to answer the question (”Different U.N. sources?”), and one of the withering remarks quoted above even included a link to a source document that might actually have *answered* the question, to a degree. But why bother with that, when it’s so much easier and more fun to snipe?
It’s disheartening to me that many clearly intelligent people seem satisfied — no, *pleased* — to just marinate in the bile of like-minded partisans, adding to the stew without bothering to bring any real intellectual effort to seeing the other side (or, in this case, to simply figure out the facts).
Why *can’t* we just give each other the benefit of the doubt, instead of assuming mendacity at every turn? Don’t you get *tired* of this?
So here’s my effort to answer the question at hand:
Gaza is a developing story. Patterico quotes from a New York Times story from Tuesday and a Los Angeles Times story from Wednesday (actually, from Thursday in the Middle East). The numbers are changing.
The United Nations website has a report of a U.N. press conference, dated Wednesday, that says, “Some 218 children and 85 women were among the 660 casualties of the conflict.” Elsewhere, the same report says, “Since the recent ground incursion, the death toll had nearly doubled, with some 40 per cent of the casualties being civilians, according to the most recent estimates.”
I suspect that the proportion of civilians killed has surged in the last day or two, when the school was hit. As Patterico notes, the New York Times story said, “The United Nations has estimated that about one-fourth of those killed were civilians, though there have been no reliable and current figures in recent days.” Note the verb tense, “has estimated”: This appears to be a proportion from perhaps a few days back.
Further, it looks to me like the U.N. may consider only women and young children to be confirmed civilians, which would constitute an undercount of civilians, though possibly not a significant undercount. (I don’t pretend to have the slightest clue how many Gaza men of fighting age are Hamas, and it’s beside the point for this purpose.) That alone would account for discrepancies, if some counts attempt to estimate unconfirmed (adult male) civilians and some don’t.
In any case, none of this militates toward the conclusion that the media or the U.N. are liberal. (Please note: I am not saying the media or the U.N. are or are not liberal! I’m just saying that the commenters are wrong to cite *this* as evidence that they’re liberal.) If, judging from the evidence I’ve found, any of the figures Patterico quotes are wrong, it’s the New York Times’ citation of the U.N.’s probable underestimate that a quarter of the dead are civilians. That scarcely points to the Times’ liberalism; if anything, it would tip in the other direction. (Understand, I’m not saying it points in *any* direction, politically!)
Whew. Well, this is a lot of energy I’ve expended semi-fisking a narrow point that no one is likely to care much about. But I’m trying to use it as a springboard to point out in microcosm what I see as a pervasive problem with blogs and comments.
Thanks for listening (if you did).