[guest post by JVW]

UPDATE 10:30 pm – I’m calling it a night, but the NY Times has the latest New Jersey numbers with Ciattarelli at 50.6% and Murphy at 48.7%, with 83% of the vote counted. I have no idea where the 17% of the uncounted vote is located, but I am assuming it is in pro-Democrat urban areas. Still, a very unexpected showing for the GOP in New Jersey, suggesting the Democrats need to rethink the agenda they have been pursuing for the past 9 months.

UPDATE 8:23 pm – A brief word about New Jersey: Kyle Smith points out that Jack Ciattarelli has a 72,000 vote lead over incumbent governor Phil Murphy right now. Some of the northern counties which tend to run heavily Democrat have not yet reported (gee, big surprise: Democrat counties not reporting their results until after midnight) but there are some crazy things going on elsewhere. For example, in Gloucester County Murphy won four years ago by 13 points. Tonight he finds himself behind by 10 points in that county, with 97 percent of the vote counted. Though I think most prognosticators expect Murphy to pull this one out, it will probably be a very unimpressive win considering that Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state by over one million voters.

UPDATE 7:09 pm – NRO reports that exit polls suggest Youngkin lost Loudoun County by only ten points. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 24 points in the county just one year ago. This suggests that the GOP can be competitive in the suburbs, especially when Democrats pursue one of their reckless woke hobby-horses.

UPDATE 6:39 pm – Sorry, I overlooked NJRob’s comment earlier, but as he points out, Decision Desk HQ is projecting Youngkin as the winner. Not only that, but they also have projected the GOP candidates as having won the lieutenant governor race (Winsome Sears) and the attorney general race (Jason Miyares).

UPDATE 6:25 pm – Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report calls the race for Youngkin. He’s only one person, but it’s a good sign for the GOP:

I've seen enough: Glenn Youngkin (R) defeats Terry McAuliffe (D) in the Virginia governor's race. #VAGOV

— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2021

UPDATE 6:17 pm – Looking good for Youngkin and for the Virginia GOP thus far tonight. Fox News suggests that the GOP could sweep all three statewide races — governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general — tonight, which is pretty amazing for a party that hasn’t won a statewide election in 12 years.

UPDATE 2:55 pm – At NRO, Philip Klein reminds Youngkin supporters that 1.1 million votes came in prior to today in Virginia, and many of them were cast back when McAuliffe enjoyed a lead in the polls. Youngkin will thus have to likely make up ground with those who have voted in the last couple of days as well as today.

—— Original Post ——

Since this will undoubtedly be the biggest political event of the evening, here’s a place to discuss it. I’ll try to update this post throughout the evening as we start to learn what is going on. With much of the vote coming in by mail, it could take into the weekend to learn which candidate will be the Old Dominion state’s new governor, as some counties plan to count ballots up through Friday afternoon.

The betting indices now favor Glenn Youngkin, albeit narrowly, Virginia-based political commentator Larry Sabato sees Youngkin as the emerging winner, and the Fox News poll from last week shows him with a 53%-45% lead over Terry McAuliffe. The McAuliffe campaign has behaved shamefully in the closing days of the election, first with their Unite the Right tiki torches hoax (yes, I know the Lincoln Project claims “credit” for that one, but I find it impossible to believe that they did not coordinate it with the Democrats) and now by making up ridiculous and easily-disproved lies about Youngkin and engaging in outright race-baiting as only the sleaziest of Clintonian operators could do.

Speaking of America’s most awful family, here’s a fun fact: Terry McAuliffe has brought in Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Stacey Abrams, and Kamala Harris among other prominent Democrats to campaign for him. You know who apparently did not receive an invitation from the McAuliffe campaign? Hillary Rodham Clinton. Go figure.

McAuliffe, who has dinged Youngkin for some past language questioning the legitimacy of the 2020 election, gladly campaigns with Stacey Abrams who continues to peddle her ugly lies that the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial race was stolen from her, long after virtually every reasonable person reached the opposite conclusion. He’s also retained the services of Marc Elias, a controversial lawyer who seems to specialize in practices of dubious ethics, which comports nicely with McAuliffe’s ugly history of insisting that elections Democrats lose are clearly illegitimate. So should Glenn Youngkin emerge victorious by a narrow margin sometime over the weekend, don’t expect the Democrats to go quietly into the night.

And of course our wretched media elite are all over this election, understandably worrying that a Youngkin victory would make clear that Bidenesque Progressivism is a spent force and that Dems have much to fear with next year’s mid-term elections.

Glenn Youngkin has run a smart and disciplined race. A win for him tonight would not only be a punch in the gut to the Biden/Pelosi/Schumer (and Harris/Jaypal/Sanders) trioka of banality, but it would also suggest that there is a way for GOP candidates to keep Donald Trump at arm’s length without bruising the former President’s formidable ego. And that is what probably scares Democrats and their media adjunct the most. Here’s crossing my fingers that tonight’s results bring welcome news.

– JVW