Patterico's Pontifications

10/1/2021

“Shock” Poll Shocking For Reason Different Than The One Suggested

Filed under: General — Dana @ 10:56 am



[guest post by Dana]

Untitled

Some editors decided that this poll was shocking because a majority of Trump voters polled want to secede from the union. But how is that shocking? It’s pretty much a given considering what we’ve witnessed the past five years. No, there’s nothing shocking about that. Ugly, yes. But not shocking. Similarly, it’s a given that the decision to go with this particular headline was a safe and sure way to grab more hits rather than going with the real shock in the poll: 41% of Democrats polled are in favor of secession:

A shocking new poll from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia reveals that over half of Trump voters surveyed, and 41% of Biden voters, are in favor of blue and/or red states seceding from the union. Yeah, it’s gotten that bad.

The idea that the nation’s political divide has become so toxic that we should prepare from some sort of “national divorce” has largely been left to clever thought experiments best left for dinner parties and ironically detached columns. However, we’ve now arrived at a point where more than half of Trump voters “somewhat agree” that the time for secession is nigh.

Also what’s particularly revealing about the poll is that the same number of Democrats and Republicans hold the view that a President shouldn’t be hampered by Congress or the Courts to get what they perceive want:

— Majorities — often large majorities — of both Biden and Trump voters express some form of distrust for voters, elected officials, and media sources they associate with the other side. A strong majority of Trump voters see no real difference between Democrats and socialists, and a majority of Biden voters at least somewhat agree that there is no real difference between Republicans and fascists.

Significant numbers of both Trump and Biden voters show a willingness to consider violating democratic tendencies and norms if needed to serve their priorities. Roughly 2 in 10 Trump and Biden voters strongly agree it would be better if a “President could take needed actions without being constrained by Congress or courts…”

Details: From July 22 to Aug. 4, 2021, Project Home Fire worked with InnovateMR…to capture online responses to more than 300 questions spanning social, political, and psychological topics from 1,001 Donald Trump presidential election voters and 1,011 Joe Biden voters (N=2,012), with a margin of error of +/- 2.2 percentage points.

–Dana

29 Responses to ““Shock” Poll Shocking For Reason Different Than The One Suggested”

  1. Good morning.

    Dana (174549)

  2. People are answering that question with the caveat: all other things being equal … if this were legal or constitutional

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  3. Dana, the article itself is junk, but the research doesn’t seem too bad. It shows polarization and tribalism and a view of political opponents as ‘other’. That’s consistent with what I see. Would love to see the cross tabs.

    Thank you for sharing.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  4. The poll is well worth reading. Some of the otehr reponses are even more worrying if you look at “strongly agree” (which the secession question does not reach).

    Both sets of voters strongly agree that:
    * elected officials of the other party are a “clear and present danger” to the country.
    * some news media might as well be owned by the other party”.

    Near-majorities (>45%) strongly agree that
    * people they know might experience personal injury due to the actions of the other party.
    * some media sources should be censored to stop them from spreading dangerous lies
    * the [other side] wants to eliminate the influence of [our] values in society.

    In contrast, the secession question only rises to 25% and 18% “strongly agree.”

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  5. I wonder what would be the result if you asked West Coast Democrats or Southern Republicans the secession question.

    Such as:

    (to Democrats): If Donald Trump were elected President in 2024, would you favor your state seceding from the union?

    (to Republicans): If AOC was president was elected President in 2024, would you favor your state seceding from the union?

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  6. I think that much of the problem is that some large states have political classes that dominate large groups that strongly disagree with them. In particular, Texas, California, New York and Illinois.

    All politics is local. Local divorces are far better than national ones. Let San Joaquin and Jefferson separate from Pacifica and Los Angeles.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  7. “When inflation was this high in the 70s, it was the No. 1 issue. Ford’s campaign motto was, “Whip Inflation Now.”

    Today it’s barely discussed; politicians are too busy erasing the debt ceiling & passing another multi-trillion spending bill.”
    .

    “ALERT: Something unexpected is happening at U.S. military bases hosting Afghan evacuees: Many hundreds of them are simply leaving before receiving U.S. resettlement services, Reuters reported.”

    This stuff should hold us together.

    Obudman (18ecb6)

  8. Kevin, that’s why i said the article was junk. they took perfectly good research and wrote a click bait piece off of it.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  9. @7, Obudman, in the 1970’s inflation was a systemic problem. Today it’s driven mostly by supply chain shocks that are driving up prices in specific goods, such as cars. To address it we need to get the economy working like it did pre-covid. The best way to do that is get vaccination rates as close to 100% as we can for eligible people….but that’s a politically divisive solution.

    Time123 (9f42ee)

  10. Threats to secede always fires up whenever government changes political party or when there’s a unified government (ie, California, Texas).

    It’s a childish Calvinism that goes no where.

    whembly (7e0293)

  11. OT: COVID was active during the last 10 months (March 20-Jan 20) of Donald Trump’s term, and the US experienced 413K deaths in that time. Projecting out the next 20 days, The US will have experienced about 330K deaths during the first 10 months of Joe Biden’s term — and this with a vaccine available to everyone for over half that time.

    It is not clear that Biden has done better. Fewer deaths but, given the vaccines, far too many. This isn’t to say that Trump did well, but that Biden should not be given a pass, as some give him.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  12. Kevin, that’s why i said the article was junk. they took perfectly good research and wrote a click bait piece off of it.

    I don’t disagree. In fact, I would strongly agree that many news articles are biased, polemical and/or innumerate.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  13. It’s a childish Calvinism that goes no where.

    It actually worked for the actual Calvinists.

    Kevin M (ab1c11)

  14. “This stuff should hold us together.”

    Why doesn’t it anymore? ANSWER:

    Urbanization: increases threat sensitivity, shrinks range of social behavior, blunts social affect, increases isolation

    Smaller families and primary relational contacts: removes emotionally rich bonds, hinders crucial early social development, deletes the emotional context of past experiences.

    Shorter employment: transactionalizes work-related social interactions, long-term work bonds do not form, work itself develops isolating qualities.

    Shorter duration of living in the same area: lack of emotional resonance in physical environment has dissociative effects

    Media: structured around an economy of attention, media has developed a number of strategies to heighten attention and fear, along with stimulation-oriented strategies that make media consumption compulsive, media conflict is difficult to avoid and contextualize

    Reduced home and neighborhood life: increases isolation, reduces sense of duty to other.

    Social Psych (8848f3)

  15. @15

    “This stuff should hold us together.”

    Why doesn’t it anymore? ANSWER:

    No love of country.

    whembly (0a8536)

  16. Re #11 and #12, that’s starting to sound like San Diego Roger Sterling’s key criticism of The Big Dick.

    urbanleftbehind (8ef85b)

  17. @16, I disagree. See the inflation example I gave above.

    Time123 (ae0e50)

  18. Roughly 2 in 10 Trump and Biden voters strongly agree it would be better if a “President could take needed actions without being constrained by Congress or courts…”

    King George III roars with approval from the Great Beyond.

    JVW (ee64e4)

  19. That issue was decided by union bayonets on cemetery ridge gettysberg pa. july 3 1863.

    asset (52f232)

  20. Good numbers? Well, okay, if you say so. Me, if you want to know what I think, what I think is that 2,012 people who participate in a poll tells you as much about America as a hair from an elephant’s ear tells you about the elephant, that’s what I think.

    nk (1d9030)

  21. The Covid pill is “profound.”

    Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) COVID treatment pill results are “profoundly” positive, says former FDA boss Scott Gottlieb, appearing on CNBC following the release of the test results.
    Gottlieb notes the trial was ended early as the great success the drug was showing meant it would be unethical to continue giving folks placebos. More than 700 unvaccinated symptomatic people were given the drug, with 7% of this group needing hospitalization (and none dying) vs. 14% of the placebo group needing hospitalization (and 8 dying).
    The Pfizer board member further notes the safety profile will probably be excellent as patients only need take the drug for about 5 days – think the popular tamiflu treatment that many take for the flu.

    felipe (484255)

  22. King George III roars with approval from the Great Beyond.

    In other blogs, you’d see someone bellow “at least we’d have an NHS!”

    urbanleftbehind (c073c9)

  23. Wasn’t King George III the first to secede from America? Something about George Washington chopping down his cherry tree and throwing his tea into the Delaware River in the middle of winter?

    nk (1d9030)

  24. No, KG3 found a new hoe literally on the other side of the globe that wouldn’t give as much sass.

    urbanleftbehind (c073c9)

  25. “No love of country.”

    A country’s gotta have some semblance of societies in it to inspire any actual, profound loyalty. Communist countries that failed famously produced some of the most violently criminal societies in their aftermath.

    “Land where my father’s died” rules out FOB immigrants

    “Land of the Pilgrim’s pride” rules out the Nuatheists and other terminally antireligious.

    “From every mountainside” rules out the urbanites.

    “Let Freedom Ring!” rules out everyone posting Covid Cringe.

    Stepz up (074266)

  26. 23. It’s only 50% successful! (in preventing hospitalization)

    Better than ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine, at a given point in an infection, but not as good as neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, which has a 70& reduction rate in preventing hospitalization.

    If this is approved it could be worse for people, because it might be given instead of monoclonal antibodies or, saying it could be given earlier, once started, a person might not be eligible for the antibodies. All this to save money, when, after all, the last thing Washington is interested in is saving money. But WAshington is capable of contradictions.

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)

  27. 27. Stepz up (074266) — 10/1/2021 @ 7:47 pm

    A country’s gotta have some semblance of societies in it to inspire any actual, profound loyalty. Communist countries that failed famously produced some of the most violently criminal societies in their aftermath.

    I think the winner might by Columbia or Brazil or Lebanon – or perhaps the “inner city” in the United States where children attend failing public schools.

    It would be hard to beat Detroit or New Orleans before Katrina (after it came back)

    Sammy Finkelman (51cd0c)


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